2020 All Ireland Senior Football Championship MOD NOTE POST #1

Fr Tod Umptious

blowitupref wrote: »

Seen this tweeted by Journalist John Fogarty yesterday.

Dublins average winning margin on route to their last 8 AI finals.

2011 - 3.9 points
2013 - 10.2 points
2015 - 13.2 points
2016 - 8.6 points
2017 - 14.8 points
2018 - 13 points
2019 - 14.8 points
2020 - 17.5 points

Average winning margin in their last 7 finals 2.1 points.

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I know plenty are talking down Mayo chances thinking they will defend as loosely as yesterday but i think Mayo will be a lot more focused defensively for this match and one shouldn't be surprised if Dublin win another AI final by a narrow margin.

Saying "Mayo will be a lot more focused defensively for this match" is like saying "the Kerry forwards will not miss a much easy chances as they did in the first game in the replay" when looking forward to the 2019 final replay.

Mayo giving Dublin a hard game is based on what we saw in 2013, 2017 and 2018.

Horan was in charge for only one of them (2013) and I personally think that the was the one Mayo were "least in" even though it was only a 1 point game.

The problem is that James Horan has never been noted for his defensive prowess.

Now this is no slight on Horan, he has forgotten more about football since I started this reply than I will ever know, but there seems to be a philosophy of "as long as we can out score you we can win".
Just listening to the Mayo News GAA podcast there and they don't think he will change anything for the final.

It's all well and good when you are beating up on Tipp and keeping Galway and Roscommon at bay, but it's a different story when you are playing Dublin.

Mayo have a midfield that is not there to dominate in the air, they have a keeper who has for years been suspect when pressured on restarts.
That alone gives Dublin a huge platform, before they even get to taking on the backs.

On the flip side what are Dublin's defenses like, how would they cope with hard running Mayo players like we have seen in the past few days ?
That's a real question by the way not a rhetorical one.

In the end the Kerry forwards did miss as many easy chances in the replay as they did in the first game, and I think that Mayo will leave themselves as open in the final as they did in the SF.

Horan of course did beat Dublin in 2012, but they were 10 points up at one stage and only won by 3, with Clarke pulling off a great save from an Alan Brogan shot late on.

breezy1985

bucketybuck wrote: »

Go down that road and you come to the conclusion that the GAA's efforts should be targeted on the clubs, and not the intercounty scene.

Which would be a better idea than shuffling the deckchairs on a format that is inherently broken.

Good luck with that as the GAA and all those clubs would be bankrupt without the All Ireland and all the kids would be signing up to be like all the soccer and rugby players they see on TV

bucketybuck

breezy1985 wrote: »

Good luck with that as the GAA and all those clubs would be bankrupt without the All Ireland and all the kids would be signing up to be like all the soccer and rugby players they see on TV

I have a little more respect for the clubs than you do it seems.

Hammer Archer

Mod:
Any discussion on Dublin's Dominance or Changes in the GAA can be moved to the threads below:
Changes in the GAA
The Dominance of Dublin GAA

This thread is to discuss the 2020 Football Championship itself.
I'll be putting a mod note in post #1 so that everyone's clear.

Tombo2001

Blackjack wrote: »

Cillian O’Connors average per game is just over 7 per game- he’s scored 418 points in 59 championship games.

Who is the fella with the highest average - is it Matt Connor or Maurice Fitz?

I was going by the Wikipedia stats, but they may not be accurate.

Matt Connor is the highest.

Tombo2001

Was anyone surprised by the way Dublin struggled (a little) with the Cavan KickOuts. Its not like the Dubs are short of big lads in the middle that are able to catch.....

gourcuff

any thoughts on match ups?

i would have thought you have to put keegan on kilkenny after keegans dominance of him in 2017
Paddy Durcan needs to be freed up a little in terms of responsibility because of his attacking ability

mclaughlin has been great going forward this year also, his athleticism needs to be utilised going forward..

all in all mayo aren't a team of man markers, its going to be a case of attack is the best form of defence...

Blackjack

Tombo2001 wrote: »

I was going by the Wikipedia stats, but they may not be accurate.

Matt Connor is the highest.

I think Cillian has just pipped Matt Connor's average now. Wikipedia has Matt Connor at 13-142 (181) over 26 games, or average 6.96 per game.
Cillian O'Connor has 30-328 (418) over 59 games, with an average of 7.08 now - His 4-9 on Sunday lifted his average up from 6.84.

Always_Running

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Saying "Mayo will be a lot more focused defensively for this match" is like saying "the Kerry forwards will not miss a much easy chances as they did in the first game in the replay" when looking forward to the 2019 final replay.

Mayo giving Dublin a hard game is based on what we saw in 2013, 2017 and 2018.

Horan was in charge for only one of them (2013) and I personally think that the was the one Mayo were "least in" even though it was only a 1 point game.

The problem is that James Horan has never been noted for his defensive prowess.

Now this is no slight on Horan, he has forgotten more about football since I started this reply than I will ever know, but there seems to be a philosophy of "as long as we can out score you we can win".
Just listening to the Mayo News GAA podcast there and they don't think he will change anything for the final.

It's all well and good when you are beating up on Tipp and keeping Galway and Roscommon at bay, but it's a different story when you are playing Dublin.

Mayo have a midfield that is not there to dominate in the air, they have a keeper who has for years been suspect when pressured on restarts.
That alone gives Dublin a huge platform, before they even get to taking on the backs.

On the flip side what are Dublin's defenses like, how would they cope with hard running Mayo players like we have seen in the past few days ?
That's a real question by the way not a rhetorical one.

In the end the Kerry forwards did miss as many easy chances in the replay as they did in the first game, and I think that Mayo will leave themselves as open in the final as they did in the SF.

Horan of course did beat Dublin in 2012, but they were 10 points up at one stage and only won by 3, with Clarke pulling off a great save from an Alan Brogan shot late on.

Large portions of the semi final on Sunday especially 2nd half Mayo weren't making an effort to defend as a team at all. If they leave themselves that open against Dublin they will produce their biggest winning margin in a AI final since the 70s.

James Horans previous AI finals. 2012 held Donegal to 13 scores (2 goals conceded was key at the end) 2013 held Dublin to 14 scores (2 goals conceded was key at the end)

Fair to say Horan will have a strong focus to concede no goals in this final, easier said than done but let's not forget Dublin scored no goal against Westmeath a few weeks ago and just 1 v Cavan which didn't come until the 63rd minute.

breezy1985

Always_Running wrote: »

Large portions of the semi final on Sunday especially 2nd half Mayo weren't making an effort to defend as as team at all. If they leave themselves that open against Dublin they will produce their biggest winning margin in a AI final since the 70s.

They wont though. Nothing about that second half matters for the final

Cavan_King

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Was anyone surprised by the way Dublin struggled (a little) with the Cavan KickOuts. Its not like the Dubs are short of big lads in the middle that are able to catch.....

I wouldn't have thought they struggled. Cavan have alot of big men (McKiernan, Galligan, Faulker, Killian Clarke, Madden) who all rotate around the middle and Ray Galligan is at a stage now where he can deliver a ball on a sixpence.

I just think Dublin were happy enough to allow us the possession as they were turning us over down the pitch anyway.

Their play seemed to be about pushing our players out to the wings, isolating them and then swarming them to win possession. Cavan were naive also you could argue in that they were strong enough to bring the ball into contact in Ulster against the likes of Donegal & Monaghan but Dublin were on a different level.

C__MC

Seems to be a huge emphasis on turnovers from dessie Farrell, Dublin ruthless in the tackle so far
kick outs will be huge, dublin absolutely destroyed Mayo last year on the press.

dobman88

Farrell stirring the pot already :pac:

https://twitter.com/JohnFogartyIrl/status/1336371431119138818?s=19

corny

Tombo2001 wrote: »

Was anyone surprised by the way Dublin struggled (a little) with the Cavan KickOuts. Its not like the Dubs are short of big lads in the middle that are able to catch.....

I've seen the likes of Kildare do really well against Dublin in midfield. Fenton and Howard (the likely partnership) can win ball but i wouldn't say they're commanding in the air.

I can see AOS coming out to midfield and Clarke aiming everything at him. The imperative will be to spoil and gather around to win the breaking ball. Mayo aren't half bad at that and it might give them a platform.

If Clarke insists on pumping ball at Loftus and Ruane in hope that they win individual duels and clean possession it won't go well. Thats what they've been doing so far and its silly. Worse if he looks to go short and be clever. Dublin are aware he can be got at and they'll pile the pressure on.

Cluedo Monopoly

I cannot see Dublin losing the final but I'd love Mayo to win it. A lot of things will have to go really well for Mayo, especially the kickouts. Kilkenny is playing very well and seems to be only in 3rd gear. He is unmarkable. I think Dublin would have scored more goals to date if the chips were down but they were never in any danger of losing a game.

However I have a hunch that the final will be decided on an early sending off (or two). I don't know why but I feel a cold/wet December day and no crowd will result in someone getting sloppy/stupid. A couple of silly fouls (like Cooper's).

gourcuff

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

I cannot see Dublin losing the final but I'd love Mayo to win it. A lot of things will have to go really well for Mayo, especially the kickouts. Kilkenny is playing very well and seems to be only in 3rd gear. He is unmarkable. I think Dublin would have scored more goals to date if the chips were down but they were never in any danger of losing a game.

However I have a hunch that the final will be decided on an early sending off (or two). I don't know why but I feel a cold/wet December day and no crowd will result in someone getting sloppy/stupid. A couple of silly fouls (like Cooper's) or a dirty stroke for a straight red. My prediction is that Dublin will lose at least 1 player and possibly more. 1983 again perhaps.

kilkenny has got better but i still imagine keegan can repeat the job he did in 2017 on him, lee has'nt been attacking as much this year so its not as big a sacrifice for mayo

Bonniedog

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

However I have a hunch that the final will be decided on an early sending off (or two). I don't know why but I feel a cold/wet December day and no crowd will result in someone getting sloppy/stupid. A couple of silly fouls (like Cooper's) or a dirty stroke for a straight red. My prediction is that Dublin will lose at least 1 player and possibly more. 1983 again perhaps.

You'll be telling us next that Johnny Cooper and Rory thumped themselves with sly digs to end up with concussion in 2016 final, was it?

It will be tough as usual. Doubt if either would ever get involved in the sort of nasty free for all you seem to be expecting or perhaps hoping for!

Sebastian Dangerfield

gourcuff wrote: »

kilkenny has got better but i still imagine keegan can repeat the job he did in 2017 on him, lee has'nt been attacking as much this year so its not as big a sacrifice for mayo

If Keegan picks anyone up out the field, I expect they will rotate with a player in the square pretty quickly. Dublin exploited the high ball into Keegan's man (Con in that case) last year, Tipp did it last week to reasonable success. It's a clear weakness IMO, if Keegan is the last time of defense.

I think Mayo might swap Keegan and Coen to start, I just hope they're wise to the switch when it comes.

EICVD

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

I cannot see Dublin losing the final but I'd love Mayo to win it. A lot of things will have to go really well for Mayo, especially the kickouts. Kilkenny is playing very well and seems to be only in 3rd gear. He is unmarkable. I think Dublin would have scored more goals to date if the chips were down but they were never in any danger of losing a game.

However I have a hunch that the final will be decided on an early sending off (or two). I don't know why but I feel a cold/wet December day and no crowd will result in someone getting sloppy/stupid. A couple of silly fouls (like Cooper's) or a dirty stroke for a straight red. My prediction is that Dublin will lose at least 1 player and possibly more. 1983 again perhaps.

Keegan is a shadow of his former self, he’ll be destroyed again in the 19th

Cluedo Monopoly

gourcuff wrote: »

kilkenny has got better but i still imagine keegan can repeat the job he did in 2017 on him, lee has'nt been attacking as much this year so its not as big a sacrifice for mayo

Keegan has definitely lost a yard of pace. Kilkenny would lead him on a merry dance all over the field.

Fr Tod Umptious

Always_Running wrote: »

Large portions of the semi final on Sunday especially 2nd half Mayo weren't making an effort to defend as a team at all. If they leave themselves that open against Dublin they will produce their biggest winning margin in a AI final since the 70s.

James Horans previous AI finals. 2012 held Donegal to 13 scores (2 goals conceded was key at the end) 2013 held Dublin to 14 scores (2 goals conceded was key at the end)

Fair to say Horan will have a strong focus to concede no goals in this final, easier said than done but let's not forget Dublin scored no goal against Westmeath a few weeks ago and just 1 v Cavan which didn't come until the 63rd minute.

Yea but at least one if not both of the goals conceded v Donegal were due to the mismatch of Keane on Murphy.
I know hindsight is a great thing but it was a mismatch Donegal identified and Mayo failed to.
Plus it happened early, the whole plan of the 2012 final was not to allow Donegal get a lead and make them chase he game and disrupt them from playing it on their terms, but that was all out the window in the first few minutes.

As for the Dublin game in 2013, the second Dublin goal came straight after the first Mayo one, that sort of s**t would drive you to drink.

And on Sunday it was not the goals in the second half that worried me but the the two gilt-edged chances Tipp got in the first half.
And their goal, although not as clear cut as the first two chances came straight after a Mayo goal, as I said , it would drive you to drink.

Cluedo Monopoly

Bonniedog wrote: »

You'll be telling us next that Johnny Cooper and Rory thumped themselves with sly digs to end up with concussion in 2016 final, was it?

It will be tough as usual. Doubt if either would ever get involved in the sort of nasty free for all you seem to be expecting or perhaps hoping for!

It's just a hunch. All I am saying is that a red card or 2 will have a major impact on the final. We shall see.

gourcuff

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Keegan has definitely lost a yard of pace. Kilkenny would lead him on a merry dance all over the field.

maybe, the only time they've met keegan dominated him..

Kilkenny claimed afterwards it was part of his strategy to allow this to happen...



https://www.sportsjoe.ie/gaa/one-scary-stat-proves-just-bloody-good-lee-keegan-137394


Speaking on the Sunday game about Keegan, Joe Brolly made it very clear he was a fan:

"The man who really stood up for them was Lee Keegan. In the drawn game against Roscommon when they got nobody he dragged them up," Brolly said.

"And again today I though Lee Keegan was superb, he took Ciaran Kilkenny out of the game.

"He had 66 possessions in the semi-final against Tyrone, he had eight today."

Cluedo Monopoly

gourcuff wrote: »

maybe, the only time they've met keegan dominated him..

Kilkenny claimed afterwards it was part of his strategy to allow this to happen...



https://www.sportsjoe.ie/gaa/one-scary-stat-proves-just-bloody-good-lee-keegan-137394


Speaking on the Sunday game about Keegan, Joe Brolly made it very clear he was a fan:

"The man who really stood up for them was Lee Keegan. In the drawn game against Roscommon when they got nobody he dragged them up," Brolly said.

"And again today I though Lee Keegan was superb, he took Ciaran Kilkenny out of the game.

"He had 66 possessions in the semi-final against Tyrone, he had eight today."

True but I think he has had ankle ligament, dislocated shoulder and concussion injuries since then. And he is 30+. Great player for sure, I just wouldn't give him a man marking duty on Kilkenny in the final.

seligehgit

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

It's just a hunch. All I am saying is that a red card or 2 will have a major impact on the final. We shall see.

That's stating the obvious or is it?

Dublin are so good ATM that they could likely manage the loss of a player ( Remember last year's drawn final and be relatively comfortable ).

On the other hand if Mayo lose a man over board it's game over.

I really fear Lee Keegan will struggle on Kilkenny or for that matter Con O Callaghan.

C__MC

A huge issue for Dublin in 2017 was Mayo forcing them long , Dublin got cleaned out for alot of that game
I expect mayo to put o shea around the middle

Starlord_01

seligehgit wrote: »

That's stating the obvious or is it?

Dublin are so good ATM that they could likely manage the loss of a player ( Remember last year's drawn final and be relatively comfortable ).

On the other hand if Mayo lose a man over board it's game over.

I really fear Lee Keegan will struggle on Kilkenny or for that matter Con O Callaghan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MXu3WlUfGI

seligehgit

C__MC wrote: »

A huge issue for Dublin in 2017 was Mayo forcing them long , Dublin got cleaned out for alot of that game
I expect mayo to put o shea around the middle

Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

He'll likely go out to the middle if we're really bleeding.

C__MC

C__MC wrote: »

I expect mayo to put o shea around the middle

If it was Rochford you'd nearly bet your house it would be the type of gamble he'd take. Not sure that Horan would, the forward line has been working so well as it is.

Who thinks it would be a good idea?

flasher0030

It might be very slight, but one "weakness" with this Dublin team seems to be that they are not as ruthless as prior years in going for goals. Since Bernard Brogan, Alan Brogan and O'Gara have gone, and McMenamon having limited time, the new crop of players are a lot more content in taking their point when they get to the 25 or 30 yard line. In prior years, it seemed like the first instinct was to see if players around to create a goal chance. C Kilkenny is obviously an excellent player; but he seems a lot more content to be fisting the ball over the bar than taking a chance on rattling the net.