Leo Varadkar story in The Village??? - Mod Notes and banned Users in OP updated 16/05

gadarnol

Bishop of hope wrote: »

First point is just sour grapes.

No argument from me on that last point

The OSA states “benefit” but does not define it. In many ways from a legal point of view it is a pity if the case doesn’t make it to court. A ruling on what benefit means would be useful in the future.

The PR management being undertaken by FG after the vote (and it’s very obvious here) shows they’re anxious to close this off. But the damage is done. And FF will have the knives out for MM now. The consequences of Varadkar’s leak and being caught will run and run.

IAMAMORON

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Yes there was a vote and it has been accepted, but the damage to Leo and brand FG is done. You'll see the payoff for that in an election. Which IMO Leo won't be leading FG into if they have any sense.

Idle talk Francie. Take stock of reality for a change.

For starters Leo will be going into the next election as Taoiseach, that will benefit both him and Fine Gael. So I cannot see any payoff arising here.

Fine Gael voters don't defect anywhere else either. Unlike the future pattern of more hardline republican voters jumping ship depending on what FF or SF policy they are fond of. All Sinn Féin gains arrive as a result of a dissent from FF voters who are looking for change, they don't come from Fine Gael voters, deep down there is no alignment there.

Fianna Fáíl election strategists are well aware of this and you can be sure that are isolating vulnerable Sinn Féin seats. As I said Fine Gael don't lose voters to FF or SF. But SF can and do lose votes to FF.

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

First point is just sour grapes.

No argument from me on that last point

The first point is a fact.

You are guessing that there was no gain. From a biased position too let me add.


If you aren't just guessing then you can prove it.

FrancieBrady

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Idle talk Francie. Take stock of reality for a change.

For starters Leo will be going into the next election as Taoiseach, that will benefit both him and Fine Gael. So I cannot see any payoff arising here.

Fine Gael voters don't defect anywhere else either. Unlike the future pattern of more hardline republican voters jumping ship depending on what FF or SF policy they are fond of. All Sinn Féin gains arrive as a result of a dissent from FF voters who are looking for change, they don't come from Fine Gael voters, deep down there is no alignment there.

Fianna Fáíl election strategists are well aware of this and you can be sure that are isolating vulnerable Sinn Féin seats. As I said Fine Gael don't lose voters to FF or SF. But SF can and do lose votes to FF.

FG can depend on 21% of the vote...that's it. Anything above that will be votes gained, votes that have clearly demonstrated they are not owned by anyone.


I'll say it now, only a party fond of self immolation would go into an election with goods damaged this badly and I would not doubt that there is another document awaiting in the long grass to maximise damage during an election campaign. One more sniff of anything like this and it's curtains for Leo and FG's election hopes.

RandomViewer

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Garda being suspended for corruption

What do you seem to expect , a Fcuking promotion and a bonus.

In the 90's faking a few explosive finds would get you up to superintendent

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/golden-handshake-for-dismissed-garda-officer-25891822.html

RandomViewer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG can depend on 21% of the vote...that's it. Anything above that will be votes gained, votes that have clearly demonstrated they are not owned by anyone.


I'll say it now, only a party fond of self immolation would go into an election with goods damaged this badly and I would not doubt that there is another document awaiting in the long grass to maximise damage during an election campaign. One more sniff of anything like this and it's curtains for Leo and FG's election hopes.

Quite a few FG TDs won't be standing again and the one up here will be replaced by an Independant who is blatantly corrupt next time

jmcc

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

That was a quarter of a century ago, dude. A different country for all intents and purposes.



Have you any more recent examples?

The Siteserv investigation hasn't reported yet. It was meant to report earlier this year but it was put off for a while.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

RandomViewer wrote: »

Quite a few FG TDs won't be standing again and the one up here will be replaced by an Independant who is blatantly corrupt next time

What constituency are you in RV?

Locally Heather's outburst isn't going down well. SF are popular here across parties and are known as hard workers in the community. Could be a struggle for FG to hold their vote if the onslaught continues.

RandomViewer

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What constituency are you in RV?

Locally Heather's outburst isn't going down well. SF are popular here across parties and are known as hard workers in the community. Could be a struggle for FG to hold their vote if the onslaught continues.

Donegal, Mc Hugh will be facing off against John O'Donnell (that one)

IAMAMORON

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG can depend on 21% of the vote...that's it. Anything above that will be votes gained, votes that have clearly demonstrated they are not owned by anyone.


I'll say it now, only a party fond of self immolation would go into an election with goods damaged this badly and I would not doubt that there is another document awaiting in the long grass to maximise damage during an election campaign. One more sniff of anything like this and it's curtains for Leo and FG's election hopes.

They are currently 37% in the polls.

But as I said before, Sinn Féin do not benefit from a fall in popularity for Fine Gael. Fine Gael voters switch to an independent or maybe labour. There is no swing vote between SF/ FF and FG, it does not work that way. The swing votes happen between FF and SF. As it stands Sinn Féin have the most to lose if Fianna Fáil support rallies, which looks likely.

RandomViewer

IAMAMORON wrote: »

They are currently 37% in the polls.

But as I said before, Sinn Féin do not benefit from a fall in popularity for Fine Gael. Fine Gael voters switch to an independent or maybe labour. There is no swing vote between SF/ FF and FG, it does not work that way. The swing votes happen between FF and SF. As it stands Sinn Féin have the most to lose if Fianna Fáil support rallies, which looks likely.

MM is so unpopular there's no way they are gaining and replacing him with droning Calaghan would lose them even more rural votes

gadarnol

Actually there’s another thread to this that will come back at FG: the SIPO complaint.

RandomViewer

gadarnol wrote: »

Actually there’s another thread to this that will come back at FG: the SIPO complaint.

Could be 2030 before its heard, FG probably demand the case be heard in Klingon just to delay it. We had a few councillors who managed a full term after being reported and then just didn't stand the next time

IAMAMORON

RandomViewer wrote: »

MM is so unpopular there's no way they are gaining and replacing him with droning Calaghan would lose them even more rural votes

He hasn't done much wrong and in all fairness Sinn Féin have not covered themselves in glory the last few weeks? The next polls should be interesting, but I can see FF gains at the expense of SF, that is not a wind up btw.

jmcc

IAMAMORON wrote: »

They are currently 37% in the polls.

Opinion polls != Votes.

Regards...jmcc

FrancieBrady

IAMAMORON wrote: »

They are currently 37% in the polls.

But as I said before, Sinn Féin do not benefit from a fall in popularity for Fine Gael. Fine Gael voters switch to an independent or maybe labour. There is no swing vote between SF/ FF and FG, it does not work that way. The swing votes happen between FF and SF. As it stands Sinn Féin have the most to lose if Fianna Fáil support rallies, which looks likely.

Polls don't fill seats.

FG have 21% of the vote. That's all we know.

Everything they gain will be a vote that cannot be taken for granted, it will go elsewhere if FG are not up to muster. That's the change in Irish politics. FG FF down to 46% vote share from the dizzying heights of 84%.

My advice would be choose your leader for next time out with care. The one who went into the last election had similar expectations from the polls and look what he delivered. One of the worst FG performances of all time.

FrancieBrady

RandomViewer wrote: »

Donegal, Mc Hugh will be facing off against John O'Donnell (that one)

Is that the guy that was caught along with McElvaney?

StackSteevens

jmcc wrote: »

Long time listener, first time caller, eh?

Regards...jmcc

Long time follower of yours on politics.ie anyway!

Regards ....... ss

Nobotty

Nobody can take votes for granted
Last election especially
Nobody's position is set in stone either
Neither is nobotty's

jmcc

StackSteevens wrote: »

Long time follower of yours on politics.ie anyway!

Regards ....... ss

FG would be in a far better position with Coveney as leader like the FG grassroots wanted. The danger is that Leo The Leak may damage FG's main selling point in that it is not FF. Having had to admit leaking that document in the Dail has almost guaranteed a leadership challenge.

Regards...jmcc

StackSteevens

jmcc wrote: »

The Siteserv investigation hasn't reported yet. It was meant to report earlier this year but it was put off for a while.

Regards...jmcc

It would help if the stammering Soc Dem ninny was wiling to assist the Investigation by repeating the allegations that she made under Dail privilege and were one of the main things that led Enda Kenny to set up the tribunal in the first place.

StackSteevens

jmcc wrote: »

FG would be in a far better position with Coveney as leader like the FG grassroots wanted. The danger is that Leo The Leak may damage FG's main selling point in that it is not FF. Having had to admit leaking that document in the Dail has almost guaranteed a leadership challenge.

Regards...jmcc

Happily, Leo the Leaker won't be on my ballot paper. Although the dreadful choice of third rate candidates that I'll have down here would drive a fellow to drink, if he wasn't already an enthusiastic fan of West Cork Whiskey!

Cordially .... ss

jmcc

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Polls don't fill seats.

The other problem with the polls is that they are misleading. The telephone/online polls favour FG and have FF at a disadvantage. When face to face polling resumed, FF's support when back towards 20%. This is because of the demographics that support FF are less likely to be active Internet users. Leo The Leak also had a lot of unchallenged airtime during the Summer. As with FG's attempt at commemorating the Black and Tans/RIC, there will always be some FGer who will screw things up for FG just when they are likely to win. As someone once said, if it was raining soup, FG would be out with a fork.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

Deleted User wrote: »

Would the kind of weird cult thing built up around him,not make a leadership challenge unlikely as it would split the party..

The opposite, I think. Verona Murphy was always going to win a seat in Wexford but Leo The Leak in an attempt to keep onside with the roight-on types in the Dublin media decided to remove her as an FG candidate. She won and FG lost a seat. Leo The Leak is all about Leo. He's a completely liability as a leader in that he thinks that he's some kind of president rather than a leader who has to work to get TDs elected.

While likely covoney is a better vote-getter,(id vote for him.anyway), is he popular enough to force a victory??

Coveney comes across as sincere even if he's not. That's a valuable attribute for a politician and he would be much better for FG. Leo The Leak always appears smarmy. If FG is to take on SF, then it needs someone like Coveney leading it rather than Varadkar.

Regards...jmcc

1st dalkey dalkey

Leo leaked a confidential document.

He got caught.

There was no consequence for Leo.

Quelle surprise?

The consequence will be for the rest of us.

Future leaks will be harder to prevent and nearly impossible to sanction.

Some here think SF were wasting time and money, playing politics.

They were not. They were preparing the ground.

Successfully, as it turns out.

James Brown

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

Leo leaked a confidential document.

He got caught.

There was no consequence for Leo.

Quelle surprise?

The consequence will be for the rest of us.

Future leaks will be harder to prevent and nearly impossible to sanction.

Some here think SF were wasting time and money, playing politics.

They were not. They were preparing the ground.

Successfully, as it turns out.

Somebody had to call him out. I'm quite sure there are some people in the Green party who were biting their lip but alas they went along like FF. Anything goes and don't expect any government negotiation is above board because there's no accountability so who cares?

Scoondal

So the parliament of Ireland states they have condidence in a Tanaiste that leaked official government documents ? And there is no sanction against such an action. So any government minister can leak confidential government papers now with impunity.
What is going on ?

Gooey Looey

So every one of the opposition bar 3 independents voted in favour of the VONC? That's hardly any surprise and a damning statement about the issue. It'll be interesting to see how much support FG lose after this and their ongoing media suicide. This FFG government have certainly been entertaining, there's a new scandal every week

Bishop of hope

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The first point is a fact.

You are guessing that there was no gain. From a biased position too let me add.


If you aren't just guessing then you can prove it.

That's an awsome call on fact.
Hope, you have more to back it up than village had!

McMurphy

Gooey Looey wrote: »

So every one of the opposition bar 3 independents voted in favour of the VONC? That's hardly any surprise and a damning statement about the issue. It'll be interesting to see how much support FG lose after this and their ongoing media suicide.

Simon Harris, Sunday morning past.

https://twitter.com/SimonHarrisTD/status/1325351243615756289?s=19

FG main page since Sunday.......


https://twitter.com/FineGael?s=09





I'm not joking here, I think we're literally seeing a political party imploding in front of our eyes with nothing left in them at all except "attack Sinn Fein, Sinn Fein, Sinn Fein."

They're stumbling from one PR disaster to the other on Twitter, it's actually cringeworthy.