Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Plumbthedepths

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Some sort of enforcement on the quarantine rules would be good.

https://www.thesun.ie/news/6107541/ireland-eu-traffic-light-system-orange-test-eamon-ryan/
There are no quarantine rules here.

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

If it's a free for all at Christmas we'll be back to square one and it'll be the most depressing February in the last 150 years.

So the question must be asked what's the point. We should be realistic about this spreads. Getting down to low number so we can go on a mad one with one of the largest diasporas in the world (as a proportion of population) will end in tears.

Personally I know family that come home every year and they aren't this year.

We'll see but I don't think there'll be a huge influx coming home this year. That's purely based on my own family and friends though.

owlbethere

The one thing that I hate about this lockdown is that many grocery shops like Tesco, Dunnes, Aldi and Lidl can provide sections in thier shops with toys and other Christmas gifts. That would help many people in the weeks coming up to Christmas. If people are in shops doing their groceries, they could easily pop over to the side to have a look at toys or other gifts to lighten the load come December. All that aspect of not allowed to sell non essential stuff is going to cause a surge come December.

Akabusi

owlbethere wrote: »

The one thing that I hate about this lockdown is that many grocery shops like Tesco, Dunnes, Aldi and Lidl can provide sections in thier shops with toys and other Christmas gifts. That would help many people in the weeks coming up to Christmas. If people are in shops doing their groceries, they could easily pop over to the side to have a look at toys or other gifts to lighten the load come December. All that aspect of not allowed to sell non essential stuff is going to cause a surge come December.

I don't think it is, most folks are using Amazon.

Jim_Hodge

owlbethere wrote: »

The one thing that I hate about this lockdown is that many grocery shops like Tesco, Dunnes, Aldi and Lidl can provide sections in thier shops with toys and other Christmas gifts. That would help many people in the weeks coming up to Christmas. If people are in shops doing their groceries, they could easily pop over to the side to have a look at toys or other gifts to lighten the load come December. All that aspect of not allowed to sell non essential stuff is going to cause a surge come December.

And a great way to kill off all the smaller stores who are currently closed.

Cunning Stunt

landofthetree wrote: »

Of course they should close all borders immediately.

They wont and the vaccine are now all basically useless.

What a **** up.

Yeah, the gvnt here is coming under fire because they were informed of the mutations on mink farms and the possible affect on the vaccines already a few weeks ago - but they chose to wait until it was confirmed that the mutated strain had jumped to humans, before they ordered that all minks be culled and the region locked down.
I have to say tho, the situation here the past few mnths between gvnt and mink farmers has been really toxic and I can see why they might have been hesitant on pulling the plug on the industry altogether.

iamwhoiam

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

And a great way to kill off all the smaller stores who are currently closed.

All its doing it making people shop on e bay or Amazon . Or use Smyths click and collect . By the time the smaller shops open most people will have the bulk of the shopping done

frank8211

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Donegal hiked up today. It's just not reducing there as you'd hope.

There is big mink producer there.... any connection?

bb1234567

Gettin a bit worried about this now :eek:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1324428687194886144

caveat emptor

bb1234567 wrote: »

Gettin a bit worried about this now :eek:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1324428687194886144

Welcome to our world :pac:

Seven municipalities in northern Denmark, home to most of the country’s mink farms, will face restrictions on movement across county lines, while restaurants and bars will be closed, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a press conference.

What is going on in Donegal, how can their numbers be up at 75 after level 3 and then level 5 restrictions.

ACitizenErased

bb1234567 wrote: »

Gettin a bit worried about this now :eek:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1324428687194886144

I think there is very little to be concerned about tbh.
This mink thing isn't new, it's been around since May.

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

What is going on in Donegal, how can their numbers be up at 75 after level 3 and then level 5 restrictions.

It borders one of the most infected regions in Europe.

prunudo

iamwhoiam wrote: »

All its doing it making people shop on e bay or Amazon . Or use Smyths click and collect . By the time the smaller shops open most people will have the bulk of the shopping done

Agree, its nonsense that the curtailment of non essential items in the likes of Tesco is to protect the smaller retailer. People's money will just go to Amazon or other foreign websites.

KrustyUCC

Kivaro wrote: »

I hope it trends down.

I had been replying to ACE's post of Cases decreasing by 5-6% per day

Still it would be great to see the R trending down alright

ednwireland

Deleted User wrote: »

What is going on in Donegal, how can their numbers be up at 75 after level 3 and then level 5 restrictions.

https://www.highlandradio.com/2020/11/05/serious-concern-amid-reports-of-covid-cluster-in-luh/

spookwoman

mirrorwall14

The election takes me out of the coronavirus forum this week. It’s now causing more anxiety than this forum was so I come back and minks?? ****ing minks? Is 2020 over yet coz I’m bloody done?

Dr. Bre

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

The election takes me out of the coronavirus forum this week. It’s now causing more anxiety than this forum was so I come back and minks?? ****ing minks? Is 2020 over yet coz I’m bloody done?

They mink it’s all over ...

marno21

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

The election takes me out of the coronavirus forum this week. It’s now causing more anxiety than this forum was so I come back and minks?? ****ing minks? Is 2020 over yet coz I’m bloody done?

The election is an important one - some people in the US should know what happens when an incredibly complex and difficult to manage society is governed by an imbecile who doesn't believe in science.

The response to Covid-19 by countries who would lick themselves were they to be an ice cream (US, UK, Brazil) shows what happens when flag waving and boosterism are used as crisis response tools. Something to be aware of as we face the massive, looming threat of climate change.

odyssey06

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think there is very little to be concerned about tbh.
This mink thing isn't new, it's been around since May.

I have a vision of hordes of rabid mink escaping descending en masse on any living thing in their path ... I should be reassured by your post but I am not.

Ohmeha

National deaths and case numbers since introduction of Level 3 on October 6th

7 day percentage average decline is remarkably consistent


Day Month Date Deaths Weekly 7 Day Av ROI Weekly 7 Day Av 7 Day % 14 Day Av 14 Day %
Tuesday October 6th 1 17 2.43 432 3,268 466.86 41.17% 398.79 63.77%
Wednesday October 7th 5 21 3.00 611 3,450 492.86 37.45% 425.71 67.46%
Thursday October 8th 1 18 2.57 506 3,514 502.00 33.71% 438.71 66.59%
Friday October 9th 5 22 3.14 617 3,661 523.00 32.07% 459.50 69.20%
Saturday October 10th 3 15 2.14 1,012 4,060 580.00 29.42% 514.07 84.97%
Sunday October 11th 2 17 2.43 814 4,510 644.29 46.86% 541.50 86.45%
Monday October 12th 1 18 2.57 825 4,817 688.14 50.58% 572.57 88.70%
Tuesday October 13th 3 20 2.86 811 5,196 742.29 59.00% 604.57 98.97%
Wednesday October 14th 5 20 2.86 1,095 5,680 811.43 64.64% 652.14 106.14%
Thursday October 15th 3 22 3.14 1,205 6,379 911.29 81.53% 706.64 113.63%
Friday October 16th 3 20 2.86 1,000 6,762 966.00 84.70% 744.50 115.00%
Saturday October 17th 8 25 3.57 1,276 7,026 1,003.71 73.05% 791.86 113.73%
Sunday October 18th 3 26 3.71 1,283 7,495 1,070.71 66.19% 857.50 132.88%
Monday October 19th 0 25 3.57 1,031 7,701 1,100.14 59.87% 894.14 128.22%
Tuesday October 20th 13 35 5.00 1,269 8,159 1,165.57 57.02% 953.93 139.21%
Wednesday October 21st 3 33 4.71 1,167 8,231 1,175.86 44.91% 993.64 133.41%
Thursday October 22nd 3 33 4.71 1,066 8,092 1,156.00 26.85% 1,033.64 135.61%
Friday October 23rd 7 37 5.29 777 7,869 1,124.14 16.37% 1,045.07 127.44%
Saturday October 24th 4 33 4.71 859 7,452 1,064.57 6.06% 1,034.14 101.17%
Sunday October 25th 0 30 4.29 1,025 7,194 1,027.71 -4.02% 1,049.21 93.76%
Monday October 26th 3 33 4.71 939 7,102 1,014.57 -7.78% 1,057.36 84.67%
Tuesday October 27th 5 25 3.57 720 6,553 936.14 -19.68% 1,050.86 73.82%
Wednesday October 28th 6 28 4.00 675 6,061 865.86 -26.36% 1,020.86 56.54%
Thursday October 29th 6 31 4.43 866 5,861 837.29 -27.57% 996.64 41.04%
Friday October 30th 6 30 4.29 772 5,856 836.57 -25.58% 980.36 31.68%
Saturday October 31st 5 31 4.43 416 5,413 773.29 -27.36% 918.93 16.05%
Sunday November 1st 2 33 4.71 552 4,940 705.71 -31.33% 866.71 1.07%
Monday November 2nd 2 32 4.57 767 4,768 681.14 -32.86% 847.86 -5.18%
Tuesday November 3rd 5 32 4.57 322 4,370 624.29 -33.31% 780.21 -18.21%
Wednesday November 4th 8 34 4.86 444 4,139 591.29 -31.71% 728.57 -26.68%
Thursday November 5th 3 31 4.43 591 3,864 552.00 -34.07% 694.64 -32.80%

Ohmeha

Dublin LEA 14 day incidence numbers for October 20th to November 2nd released today

27 out of 31 the LEA's saw a decline in new case numbers


LEA Date Range Cases Increase LEA per 100k ROI per 100k Population
BLANCHARDSTOWN-MULHUDDART LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 123 -13.38% 348.4 228.0 35,307
SWORDS LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 176 15.03% 342.6 228.0 51,370
BALLYMUN-FINGLAS LEA-6, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 181 -33.46% 329.0 228.0 55,010
CABRA-GLASNEVIN LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 181 16.77% 308.6 228.0 58,652
BALLYFERMOT-DRIMNAGH LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 120 -22.08% 260.5 228.0 46,068
CLONDALKIN LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 121 -32.40% 260.1 228.0 46,520
ARTANE-WHITEHALL LEA-6, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 133 -31.44% 260.0 228.0 51,156
TALLAGHT SOUTH LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 92 -3.16% 259.4 228.0 35,465
LUCAN LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 84 -33.86% 251.3 228.0 33,421
PALMERSTOWN-FONTHILL LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 94 -25.40% 247.1 228.0 38,035
ONGAR LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 83 -24.55% 231.6 228.0 35,834
TALLAGHT CENTRAL LEA-6, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 93 -4.12% 215.2 228.0 43,215
BALBRIGGAN LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 77 10.00% 210.6 228.0 36,570
HOWTH-MALAHIDE LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 117 -11.36% 208.4 228.0 56,139
KIMMAGE-RATHMINES LEA-6, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 113 -4.24% 202.3 228.0 55,861
DONAGHMEDE LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 84 -13.40% 202.0 228.0 41,593
NORTH INNER CITY LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 122 -20.78% 191.8 228.0 63,612
CASTLEKNOCK LEA-6, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 87 -36.96% 188.6 228.0 46,126
RUSH-LUSK LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 62 -7.46% 178.8 228.0 34,674
FIRHOUSE-BOHERNABREENA LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 61 -22.78% 178.4 228.0 34,202
SOUTH WEST INNER CITY LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 73 -28.43% 172.4 228.0 42,344
SOUTH EAST INNER CITY LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 64 -24.71% 157.6 228.0 40,603
RATHFARNHAM-TEMPLEOGUE LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 71 -39.83% 148.2 228.0 47,909
CLONTARF LEA-6, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 70 -24.73% 129.2 228.0 54,182
BLACKROCK LEA-6, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 42 -36.36% 124.5 228.0 33,727
STILLORGAN LEA-6, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 32 -42.86% 104.9 228.0 30,508
GLENCULLEN-SANDYFORD LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 35 6.06% 95.6 228.0 36,622
PEMBROKE LEA-5, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 40 -50.00% 88.0 228.0 45,473
DUNDRUM LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 32 -23.81% 85.4 228.0 37,452
DÚN LAOGHAIRE LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 34 -26.09% 81.7 228.0 41,627
KILLINEY-SHANKILL LEA-7, DUBLIN 20/10/20 to 02/11/20 26 -36.59% 68.3 228.0 38,082

Marcos

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Reproduction number of 0.7-0.9 applies to cases 7-10 days ago and could easily be at 0.5 according to Prof. Nolan

Is that not a result of the change in criteria for a positive test introduced towards the end of last month?

1) A positive test with Ct > 30 will be re-tested using a different test kit.
2) If negative second time, it is discounted.
3) If positive second time but... 1/4 . . . . ....with no change or significant increase in Ct, it will be deemed asymptomatic AND WILL NOT BE NOTIFIED TO PUBLIC HEALTH.
4) If the person is clearly symptomatic further assessments done to determine whether this is a new infection or just a persistent piece of viral RNA... 2/4 . . .

While I am very happy with this development and have been calling for it for months, it means two things:

1) Cases are about to drop.
2) Level 5 will get the credit.

stephenjmcd

Marcos wrote: »

Is that not a result of the change in criteria for a positive test introduced towards the end of last month?

That was a proposed change.

The tweet is misleading without reading the full document. No documented anywhere that this has been implemented

Funsterdelux

odyssey06 wrote: »

I have a vision of hordes of rabid mink escaping descending en masse on any living thing in their path ... I should be reassured by your post but I am not.

Nice marmot!

caveat emptor

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think there is very little to be concerned about tbh.
This mink thing isn't new, it's been around since May.

odyssey06 wrote: »

I have a vision of hordes of rabid mink escaping descending en masse on any living thing in their path ... I should be reassured by your post but I am not.

I'd have to agree with you Odyssey. So there were mutations observed in mink in NL and ES but the mutation in Denmark contains four simultaneous changes to the spike.

This in short is different and likely explains the Danish response. Nothing confirmed yet but certainly not no problem.

H69del/V70del & Y453F match what was described in the Sept/Oct reports (the deletion is just written differently, using amino-acid instead of nucleotide numbering). The other 2 were not in earlier reports.

https://twitter.com/ProfJLundgren/status/1324361001869971457?s=20
https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1324368926298509316?s=20

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think there is very little to be concerned about tbh.
This mink thing isn't new, it's been around since May.

It's been found in minks since May, that is true, but identification of this mutation is recent and it's impact on humans isn't known yet so there certainly is something to be concerned about.

The 12 human cases have been described as having an impaired reaction to antibodies, this might suggest the new strain isn't susceptible to the antibody response that the present vaccines are designed to induce. It's another we just don't know yet situation, and nothing scientific has been published yet.

I wouldn't be dismissive of this just yet, too many unknowns.

Micky 32

bb1234567 wrote: »

Gettin a bit worried about this now :eek:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1324428687194886144

Ah fur feck sake!

ACitizenErased

Deleted User wrote: »

It's been found in minks since May, that is true, but identification of this mutation is recent and it's impact on humans isn't known yet so there certainly is something to be concerned about.

The 12 human cases have been described as having an impaired reaction to antibodies, this might suggest the new strain isn't susceptible to the antibody response that the present vaccines are designed to induce. It's another we just don't know yet situation, and nothing scientific has been published yet.

I wouldn't be dismissive of this just yet, too many unknowns.

Impaired could be anything from minor difference to a 'larger' minor difference. The main thing to note is that there isn't 'no susceptibility' to antibodies, just reduced.
Likewise, the media shouldn't be hyping it up.