US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

BonnieSituation

blackcard wrote: »

Some concerning polls for Biden on the Real Clear Politics Site. 2 showing Trump ahead in Pennsylvania, one showing Trump ahead nationally. I know some are from Rasmussen who normally favour Republicans but I think that they were accurate enough in 2016

General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 48, Trump 47 Biden +1
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP Biden 49, Trump 46, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +3
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Susquehanna* Biden 48, Trump 49 Trump +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 51, Trump 44 Biden +7
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 50, Trump 47 Biden +3
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NBC News/Marist Biden 48, Trump 48 Tie
Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Trump 49, Biden 45 Trump +4

I don't see at all what's that concerning here?

Nothing in that pile jumps out at me at all.

everlast75

I can't get enough of Rasmussen leaning for Biden

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323319264137367552?s=19

VinLieger

everlast75 wrote: »

I can't get enough of Rasmussen leaning for Biden

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323319264137367552?s=19

Getting a bit worried they might lose their rating im guessing

TomOnBoard

I do like the new thread title... There's a certain Terminator, Mad Max and Die Hard vibe to it!!!

Judgement Day!!! Let the Heavenly Court begin its battle between Good and Evil!!

SimonTemplar

Trump is going to be tweeting a lot of crap tomorrow night, including possibly declaring himself the winner before all votes have been counted. I wonder will Fox follow suit and announce his "win" or play it more cautiously.

briany

The absolute shítetalk coming out of Trump regarding the count. He is talking about the election being decided on the night of the polls closing and votes counted in the days following being in question. That's patently ridiculous. No-one can defend that. A two week deadline in counting votes is nothing out of the ordinary. Mail-in voting is not out of the ordinary. Trump questioning both is absolutely shameful, but he has no shame. The best the trolls can do is glib equivocation. Let the votes be counted as they have been in every previous election and see where the chips fall.

froog

SimonTemplar wrote: »

Trump is going to be tweeting a lot of crap tomorrow night, including possibly declaring himself the winner before all votes have been counted. I wonder will Fox follow suit and announce his "win" or play it more cautiously.

the fox election people will play it straight enough on the night i think before the hysterical opinion spewers like hannity, tucker, gutfeld etc will take on the "stolen election" narrative from trump the next day.

TomOnBoard

briany wrote: »

The absolute shítetalk coming out of Trump regarding the count. He is talking about the election being decided on the night of the polls closing and votes counted in the days following being in question. That's patently ridiculous. No-one can defend that. A two week deadline in counting votes is nothing out of the ordinary. Mail-in voting is not out of the ordinary. Trump questioning both is absolutely shameful, but he has no shame. The best the trolls can do is glib equivocation. Let the votes be counted as they have been in every previous election and see where the chips fall.

Sure look! He only sees things in TV terms... He wants the election decided as though it was the Eurovision Song Contest or America's Got Talent!

froog

voter intimidation will be a very real thing tomorrow and could get ugly. the 1982 consent decree basically preventing "ballot security operations" (GOP goon squads intimidating people at ballots) expired in 2017 and so trump's goon squads have a lot of freedom to do all sorts of ****.

Brussels Sprout

Using the poll closing times, current polling data and the likelihood of states counting their votes on the night I have generated a simplified, logical flow diagram of the various permutations that I could see happening tomorrow night/Wednesday morning:

pixelburp

Ideally, no network gives Trump oxygen if he does start screaming that the initial count be respected. Who knows how the actual Fox journalists will act upon the ranting, though Hannity, Carlson et al will absolutely run with it. No question, they'll side with Trump and stoke the fires of Deep State conspiracy. Then the question turns to how the rabid Base reacts. If the attempt to ram Bidens motorcade was the act of an outlier, or the first salvo of something more openly seditious. Trump has laid the seeds of distrust for months now, claiming fraud with the early voting for a clear purpose: weaponising the narrative on election night, forcing democratic normalcy to its knees.

These are the events of a tinpot dictatorship, where normally blue helmets and UN observers would be monitoring polling stations for faction or partisan violence, or systemic election corruption. I don't revel or enjoy watching America tarnish its (admittedly self publicised) reputation as the Greatest Democracy, but it does sadden me seeing it behave like Mugabe's Zimbabwe.

Itssoeasy

froog wrote: »

the fox election people will play it straight enough on the night i think before the hysterical opinion spewers like hannity, tucker, gutfeld etc will take on the "stolen election" narrative from trump the next day.

I think the same. It was on some podcast I heard the Fox News head of the elections go out of his way to point out that the numbers will dictate the calls they make. He said he can’t control with the hosts say but that they will play it down the middle and the Karl Rove incident from 2012 where he was giving out about Ohio( I think it was Ohio) been called for Obama. I’m sure we all say Megan Kelly having to walk down to the decision area to ask them why they’d called it. The head of the Fox News election desk said he doesn’t plan for that to happen again but he said if needed he will.

Brussels Sprout

pixelburp wrote: »

Ideally, no network gives Trump oxygen if he does start screaming that the initial count be respected. Who knows how the actual Fox journalists will act upon the ranting, though Hannity, Carlson et al will absolutely run with it. No question, they'll side with Trump and stoke the fires of Deep State conspiracy. Then the question turns to how the rabid Base reacts. If the attempt to ram Bidens motorcade was the act of an outlier, or the first salvo of something more openly seditious. Trump has laid the seeds of distrust for months now, claiming fraud with the early voting for a clear purpose: weaponising the narrative on election night, forcing democratic normalcy to its knees.

We've seen a ton of evidence that his supporters do not critically analyze even his most outlandish statements. From mindlessly regurgitating his talking points in Vox-Pops to pestering their doctors and pharmacists for hydroxy-choloroquine for example.

I have no doubt that if he says the election has been stolen that hundreds of thousands of his supporters will believe it. Some fraction of those will, no doubt, decide to take matters into their own hands. How bad it gets is anyone's guess.

thecretinhop

https://youtu.be/vqNjs3t9m8k

Great analysis here on florida and penn.
only 12k up on 2016. if as expected republican voters vote 2 1 ratio trump has florid and penn..

TomOnBoard

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Using the poll closing times, current polling data and the likelihood of states counting their votes on the night I have generated a simplified, logical flow diagram of the various permutations that I could see happening tomorrow night/Wednesday morning:

Wow! Fair Play! I wont pretend to understand it as I'm viewing on a 4 * 2 inch screen.

Overheal

Lads there is a far better flowchart tool than that:

https://observablehq.com/@observablehq/electoral-college-decision-tree?fbclid=IwAR1qr8AZNZ8JVNrwh3swiVqUNgELLuAE_VCMp3wm5p--UF77INaxhwfkBcs

Larbre34

I'd love Biden to declare victory at some point, even if it becomes evident the mail-in are going to be decisive. Just to p1ss off the MAGAs.

Itssoeasy

A federal judge has rejected Texas republicans attempts to reject 127,000 drive thru ballots.

Graham

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://youtu.be/vqNjs3t9m8k

Great analysis here on florida and penn.
only 12k up on 2016. if as expected republican voters vote 2 1 ratio trump has florid and penn..

You get your US election news from a 'Doctor', on Youtube that sells secret weight loss powder from a link beneath his videos?

That's err, different.

TomOnBoard

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://youtu.be/vqNjs3t9m8k

Great analysis here on florida and penn.
only 12k up on 2016. if as expected republican voters vote 2 1 ratio trump has florid and penn..

Great analysis??? Not so much!!! This guy is a snake-oil salesman.... If you bought into his shpiel, I'd say cancel your direct debit before tomorrow...

“I want to argue that we are actually seeing nothing less than a conservative Christian resurgence in our demographics and politics that promises not suicide but rather the salvation of the West.” - Steve Turley, The Return of Christendom: Demography, Politics, and the Coming Christian Majority

thecretinhop

are his facts wrong?

Brussels Sprout

Overheal wrote: »

Lads there is a far better flowchart tool than that:

https://observablehq.com/@observablehq/electoral-college-decision-tree?fbclid=IwAR1qr8AZNZ8JVNrwh3swiVqUNgELLuAE_VCMp3wm5p--UF77INaxhwfkBcs

That is a fantastic tool. I was playing around with it the other day. I certainly wasn't even trying to come up with something better then that.

My chart was more showing how on election night it's going to be a case of Trump taking advantage of the confusion being caused by mail-in votes still being counted to declare victory at the first available opportunity.

TomOnBoard

thecretinhop wrote: »

are his facts wrong?

That's really not how it works. If you have a point to make, that's great. State your argument and we can discuss it.

But I'm buggered if I'm going to disappear down a rabbit hole created by a snake-oil salesman and parse his shtick! Once I saw that he's a snake- oil salesman, he and you lost me! I'm not going to waste my time trying to pick pearls out of swine faeces. Its up to you to show the pearls and not just do a dump through which I must wade to garner jewels that will only enrich you..

Sorry, but hey, we're all busy the next few days!

Graham

thecretinhop wrote: »

are his facts wrong?

about the weightloss powder
his expose on the "colossal fall of oprah winfrey"
his explainer about Antifa and BLM getting crushed

Sounds like pretty much all his 'facts' are wrong.

Might be worth taking a browse at some credible sources. Just a suggestion

Midlife

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://youtu.be/vqNjs3t9m8k

Great analysis here on florida and penn.
only 12k up on 2016. if as expected republican voters vote 2 1 ratio trump has florid and penn..

No, its rubbish.

If you can't tell what's rubbish on within 5 seconds of clicking on YouTube, you have a problem.

everlast75

I am fond of these high level Republicans votinv for Biden...

https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1323368331928326149?s=19

marno21

Sabato have nailed their colours to the mast now, final predictions with no tossups. The first analysis to release predictions with no tossups from what I can see. They have Biden flipping AZ/GA/MI/NE02/NC/PA/WI to finish on 321 electoral votes. Trump to retain FL/IA/ME02/OH/TX.

thecretinhop

I think trump is over 47pc which will win him relection. Obama did similar numbers

TomOnBoard

marno21 wrote: »

Sabato have nailed their colours to the mast now, final predictions with no tossups. The first analysis to release predictions with no tossups from what I can see. They have Biden flipping AZ/GA/MI/NE02/NC/PA/WI to finish on 321 electoral votes. Trump to retain FL/IA/ME02/OH/TX.

WooHoo!

Mind you, Sabato's assessment earlier gives a sobering counter-point to any ebullient mood around his prediction:

"Never in my 60 years around politics have I encountered this many people so tense, so full of dread and foreboding about an election--and what comes afterward. Of course, we've never before had a president undermining confidence and predicting fraud & mayhem--if he doesn't win."

Manic Moran

Itssoeasy wrote: »

A federal judge has rejected Texas republicans attempts to reject 127,000 drive thru ballots.

Unpossible. I had it on good authority quoted in a twitter post in the previous thread that the votes were doomed because it was a notorious Republican-appointed judge.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-02/judge-expresses-skepticism-on-bid-to-invalidate-texas-votes

“For lack of a nicer way of saying it, I ain’t buying it,” U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen said at a hearing Monday in Houston, rejecting the request by Republican activists because of lack of standing.

“You have a tough uphill row to hoe,” Hanen said earlier. The request to throw out the drive-through votes required someone to do a “fair amount of convincing” in what little time is left before Tuesday’s presidential election, he said.

I'm looking for the actual ruling. Doesn't seem to have been published yet, it may have been an oral decision. That said, if it's for lack of standing, it was a mainly a procedural/technical matter rather than a ruling on the merits

Hansen said that if he found the plaintiffs did have standing, he would have still ruled against them, "as to the voting that has already taken place," but that he would "probably enjoin tomorrow's votes."
.
I have not lost faith in the judiciary yet.