US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Graham wrote: »

Figures look reasonable.

Assumptions that they tell us how people actually voted don't.

Indeed - Evidence would suggest that Biden will get 55%/60% of the Independent bucket and perhaps as much as 10% of the "GOP" category.

On the flip side about 5% of the "Dem" vote will move to Trump.

Net Net - Still going to be very close , but leaning towards Biden thus far.

Professor Moriarty

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Indeed - Evidence would suggest that Biden will get 55%/60% of the Independent bucket and perhaps as much as 10% of the "GOP" category.

On the flip side about 5% of the "Dem" vote will move to Trump.

Net Net - Still going to be very close , but leaning towards Biden thus far.

Amazing that 1/20 of Dem voters would vote Trump. Incredible.

thecretinhop

from 2016 I think north Florida comes in last which means Biden needs a healthy lead as they tend to vote red

D.Q

The small section of boards that trump has seemingly radicalised honestly fascinates me and frightens me in equal measure.

How did it happen, do you care this much about Irish politics or is it just trump that gets you going?

Foxtrol

Trump does not sound like a man that is very confident today.

The Trump team admitted that all their intel on election day in 2016, including day of information like exit polls, had them losing and they were prepping for a bad night before everything turned around. They might be getting similar intel and hope today.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1323691454485716992?s=20

Itssoeasy

A few hours to go before it gets going because I turned on CNN and it’s the pre game show more or less. I’ll tune back in about 9pm or 9:30pm when there’s a bit more to talk about because I’d say it’s been repetitive since early morning their time.

Midlife

D.Q wrote: »

The small section of boards that trump has seemingly radicalised honestly fascinates me and frightens me in equal measure.

How did it happen, do you care this much about Irish politics or is it just trump that gets you going?

It's incredible. In years political scientists and historians will ask 'who was the worst ores in US history?'

I'm about 5 seconds they'll all agree 'Trump'

Then they'll get to the main discussion which is how were so many people blind to his total and very obvious ineptutide.

The guy hasn't a clue. Like not a clue.

Panrich

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Amazing that 1/20 of Dem voters would vote Trump. Incredible.

Many would align closely with Trumps stance on protecting the babies until such time as they are born.

At that point,they are on their own obviously.

Professor Moriarty

Panrich wrote: »

Many would align closely with Trumps stance on protecting the babies until such time as they are born.

At that point,they are on their own obviously.

Fair point. It's still a giant leap though.

Midlife

Midlife wrote: »

It's incredible. In years political scientists and historians will ask 'who was the worst ores in US history?'

I'm about 5 seconds they'll all agree 'Trump'

Then they'll get to the main discussion which is how were so many people blind to his total and very obvious ineptutide.

The guy hasn't a clue. Like not a clue.

He appeals to a very specific set of people/traits that's all.

Memnoch

Midlife wrote: »

It's incredible. In years political scientists and historians will ask 'who was the worst ores in US history?'

I'm about 5 seconds they'll all agree 'Trump'

Then they'll get to the main discussion which is how were so many people blind to his total and very obvious ineptutide.

The guy hasn't a clue. Like not a clue.

Fascists get in power because ultimately too many people are self serving and vote accordingly. And that would unfortunately include a sizable portion of those who despise Trump and everything he stands for.

is_that_so

More data on votes cast, in this case Latinos. Judging by the tweet the assumption seems to be an awful lot of them will go to Biden.

https://twitter.com/realMABarreto/status/1323697473978654721

Quin_Dub

thecretinhop wrote: »

from 2016 I think north Florida comes in last which means Biden needs a healthy lead as they tend to vote red

Well , the Panhandle is a different time zone so the polls there open/close an hour later.

As other have said though , the current allocations only take into account historic party registration and not current voting preference so whilst they might give a flavour of how things are going , it really doesn't tell the story , especially in somewhere like Florida where it's going to be very close one way or the other.

Brussels Sprout

Out of curiosity, what tabs will you have open on your browser? For me it'll likely be:

• YouTube for a live news feed - ABC news, NBC, PBS etc - will flick around
• Twitter
• 538 Live Blog
• boards.ie
• 538's interactive state map - to see how states being called affect other ones yet to be called
• and maybe The Upshot (if it's not behind a paywall)

TomOnBoard

Foxtrol wrote: »

Trump does not sound like a man that is very confident today.

The Trump team admitted that all their intel on election day in 2016, including day of information like exit polls, had them losing and they were prepping for a bad night before everything turned around. They might be getting similar intel and hope today.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1323691454485716992?s=20

One of the few times in four years that he actually sounds human.

Hopefully he gets to find how difficult losing really is...

Here's a pretty simple thing to look out for for trends.
2016:
Maine: Clinton 48 - 45 Trump
New Hampshire: Clinton 48 - 47 Trump.

Trump should be relatively stronger in the earlier votes counted. However if he leads by more than a point or 2 even with under 10% of votes counted then the other states will be close. According to the polls Biden is about 10 points clear in both states, Biden needs to lead right from the early votes.

Injuryprone

Trump is gone 2/1 now on paddy power. He was 6/4 this morning. Wonder what info they might have

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what tabs will you have open on your browser? For me it'll likely be:

• YouTube for a live news feed - ABC news, NBC, PBS etc - will flick around
• Twitter
• 538 Live Blog
• boards.ie
• 538's interactive state map - to see how states being called affect other ones yet to be called
• and maybe The Upshot (if it's not behind a paywall)

Just boards and electoral-vote.com. There's only about 10 states in play and half of them are barely in play. I'll probably watch Fox News on the TV for the craic, though their election night coverage tends to be pretty balanced.

TomOnBoard

Itssoeasy wrote: »

A few hours to go before it gets going because I turned on CNN and it’s the pre game show more or less. I’ll tune back in about 9pm or 9:30pm when there’s a bit more to talk about because I’d say it’s been repetitive since early morning their time.

It's gonna be all filler and bluster with late attempts to galvanise support for one candidate or the other in more westerly time zones until things begin to heat up around 23:00... Best get the vittles ready for the overnight sustenance in the meantime.. I plan to have a little nap around 9, and to pace myself until midnight!

After that, let 'er rip!!!

Professor Moriarty

Injuryprone wrote: »

Trump is gone 2/1 now on paddy power. He was 6/4 this morning. Wonder what info they might have

11/5 on Betfair.

bennyl10

Injuryprone wrote: »

Trump is gone 2/1 now on paddy power. He was 6/4 this morning. Wonder what info they might have

Nothing other than people lumping money on trump

tonycascarino

Injuryprone wrote: »

Trump is gone 2/1 now on paddy power. He was 6/4 this morning. Wonder what info they might have

I have a sneaky feeling it will be Trump myself.

However, if Biden does actually win this, it will be because people are anti-Trump rather than pro-Biden who tbh is a woeful candidate who definitely won't last 4 years in office.

Professor Moriarty

tonycascarino wrote: »

There are far more people inspired by Trump than they are by Biden and I have a sneaky feeling it will be Trump myself.

However, if Biden does actually win this, it will be because people are anti-Trump rather than pro-Biden who tbh is a woeful candidate.

What does that say about Trump?

Canice Picklington

Betting odds mean nothing. Clinton was 1/16 at around 1am in 2016.

There is a well worn election pattern where it looks early in the night as if the Democratic candidate is going to win, and then things change. This happened in 2000, 2004 and 2016.

I'm classing early in the night as anything before 2am.

TomOnBoard

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Out of curiosity, what tabs will you have open on your browser? For me it'll likely be:

• YouTube for a live news feed - ABC news, NBC, PBS etc - will flick around
• Twitter
• 538 Live Blog
• boards.ie
• 538's interactive state map - to see how states being called affect other ones yet to be called
• and maybe The Upshot (if it's not behind a paywall)

Youre gonna need a bigger BOAT screen....:D

An Ciarraioch

bennyl10 wrote: »

Nothing other than people lumping money on trump

You do realise that going from 6/4 to 2/1 means he's drifting in the market?

Outlaw Pete

Tonne of reports on broken or jammed voting machines.

North Carolina has had to extend voting time and delay results in response.

AMKC

I think Trump knows he is not going to win this one. He sounded terrible on the phone to Fox News.

~Rebel~

bennyl10 wrote: »

Nothing other than people lumping money on trump

Think it’s the opposite - PP trying to entice people to throw a few quid on.

luciddream

Canice Picklington wrote: »

Betting odds mean nothing. Clinton was 1/16 at around 1am in 2016.

There is a well worn election pattern where it looks early in the night as if the Democratic candidate is going to win, and then things change. This happened in 2000, 2004 and 2016.

I'm classing early in the night as anything before 2am.

Funny enough, it looks like it's going to be the other way around this year in states who haven't started counting the early votes yet.