US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

TomOnBoard

Manic Moran wrote: »

So I'm presuming that there will be an AAR thread once this is all over with, to discuss why the Democrats have not done as well as anticipated?
In four years from now, they will not be going up against Trump, and this year, so far, they barely squeaked the Presidency, lost one governor's mansion (Montana, which has had a Democrat governor since 2001), so far has a net gain of '1' in the Senate, so still no control there, and so far is down 3 in the House. And this after an incredible turnout, so arguing that "We need to energise voters" probably isn't going to be the solution.

Makes sense to analyse it. I'm not sure if it can be fully understood for a while though. But the Dems certainly need to do a whole lot of introspection even before Biden picks an Administration/ Cabinet. In particular, the roles of Corporate entities, Progressive members, Minority representation will need to be understood and feature in future policy. Also, they must try to understand how the decades long ignoring and marginalisation of folks who had been the blue-collar backbone of the country became fodder for the populist Trump machine that gave them an ear and a voice for the first time in decades.

Exclamation Marc

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1324158992877154310?s=19

Joe feeling confident.

TomOnBoard

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Georgia being flipped will have massive reprecussions. Could also lead to a Senate takeover.

Won't be a Dem Senate takeover in 2020. That horse has bolted. The absolute best the Dems can achieve is 50:50 plus a VP casting vote.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Won't be a Dem Senate takeover in 2020. That horse has bolted. The absolute best the Dems can achieve is 50:50 plus a VP casting vote.

...Which is a Senate takeover.

Strumms

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1324158992877154310?s=19

Joe feeling confident.

Thought initially it was a bit petty of Joe, but it was even more so by trump, trying to give his business mates a dig out with the last stroke of his pen, seriously disingenuous.. but evidence of what a dark mind he has.

Windmill100000

Strumms wrote: »

See I don’t like this schtick... he and more likely his crew need to keep it buttoned, not over the line yet... it’s a bit Trumpesque... focus on winning, with dignity and respect instead of grandstanding, not too presidential..

I think he is giving supporters hope in the face of Trump's onslaught of tweets.

He's been measured compared to his opponent.

Strumms

TomOnBoard wrote: »

And, on a terribly poignant note, on this day when a new President may well be selected, the great United States of America records a new record level of Covid infections- over 100,000 new cases!

THAT'S what much of this election has been about!

I hope that, between now and Inaugeration Day, the likely 9,000,000+ new cases that are found don't lead to the 100,000+ deaths that have been forecasted. A new President is going to have a terribly difficult task in arresting the pandemic and limiting such massive sickness and death!

Soo much suffering and loss... Unforgivable!

He’s of all the challenges, going to be severely behind the 8 ball starting out from the mess that Trump made of it...

marno21

Manic Moran wrote: »

So I'm presuming that there will be an AAR thread once this is all over with, to discuss why the Democrats have not done as well as anticipated?
In four years from now, they will not be going up against Trump, and this year, so far, they barely squeaked the Presidency, lost one governor's mansion (Montana, which has had a Democrat governor since 2001), so far has a net gain of '1' in the Senate, so still no control there, and so far is down 3 in the House (Flipping 2 in North Carolina, but losing one in NM, IA, OK, MN, and SC. And this after an incredible turnout, so arguing that "We need to energise voters" probably isn't going to be the solution.

100%. If Biden carries Georgia and wins 306-232 it’ll be a victory but there are many questions that need to be asked. All the States Biden will flip will be by tiny margins.

Dems were given a chance in 9 Senate races (CO, AZ, ME, NC, GA, GA, KS, MT and SC). They won 2 of them, came close in 2 more and got hockeyed in the rest, including Blue State Maine. They spent 100m in SC and still got leathered.

Big questions have to be asked. If they can’t retake the Senate in a year like this when will they ever retake the Senate?

Strumms

Windmill100000 wrote: »

I think he is giving supporters hope in the face of Trump's onslaught of tweets.

He's been measured compared to his opponent.

Good point, in the face of an onslaught, it’s often better to galvanize those around you with a little back.

Mr.Nice Guy

Trump helped by latest numbers in Arizona but this analyst doesn't think it's enough.

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324172017554362370

~Rebel~

On the subject of thinking about what happens in 4 years... both parties have some serious soul searching to do soon to figure out what their identity is.

As it stands, the Dems are fairly all over the place. Some of their most energised leaders and members are really pushing a more socially progressive direction, while the party roots are still a lot more centered. They really need to look for the sweet spot that the party can get behind and find a united voice. Biden is that united voice in the short term, but he's a band-aid more than a solution.

And the GOP has the opposite problem - they've created a very strong ethos and voice over the last 4 years. But is it a voice they want to keep once Trump is gone? Do they want to go all in on the sort of hateful rhetoric that has proven successful? Many of their most vocal supporters would say yes, but again the old-school within the party seem fairly dismayed by this direction, and would rather more of a measured dignified position.

Mellor

Manic Moran wrote: »

So I'm presuming that there will be an AAR thread once this is all over with, to discuss why the Democrats have not done as well as anticipated?
In four years from now, they will not be going up against Trump, and this year, so far, they barely squeaked the Presidency, ...

It's a bit premature to be making those sorts of claims tbh.

306 to 232 is very much still on the cards

Rjd2

marno21 wrote: »

Big questions have to be asked. If they can’t retake the Senate in a year like this when will they ever retake the Senate?

I could be wrong, but think its possible they get a tie when its all said and done in January? Not ideal obviously but not the end of the world.

The issue regarding the senate in some of those races they simply picked terrible candidates, Amy Mc Grath was a shambolic choice, nearly as hopeless as Martha Mc Sally. The chap challenging Graham wasn't particularly impressive either.

On Collins, she ran a really good campaign simple as that.

I think also why we clearly got people voting Biden but Republican in the senate etc, while they wanted Trump gone, chatter about packing the supreme court, new states etc spooked the hell out of them.

Biden did a lot right in this campaign, but he should have shut down chatter about expanding the supreme court instantly. Their was only demand that for in the most partisan elements of the online left.

derfderf

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Makes sense to analyse it. I'm not sure if it can be fully understood for a while though. But the Dems certainly need to do a whole lot of introspection even before Biden picks an Administration/ Cabinet. In particular, the roles of Corporate entities, Progressive members, Minority representation will need to be understood and feature in future policy. Also, they must try to understand how the decades long ignoring and marginalisation of folks who had been the blue-collar backbone of the country became fodder for the populist Trump machine that gave them an ear and a voice for the first time in decades.

I think the Dems focus too much on minority representation, rather than actually helping them.
They've made a big song and dance about Kamala as VP. If she doesn't actually do anything for minorities what's the point.

Water John

Van Jones was saying that. The Dems need to respect and reflect the positions of their ground supporters esp black women and the Latino members.
Do the likes of Schumer and Pelosi need to be moved sideways? I would say yes. They're white and old, like myself.

kowloon

Manic Moran wrote: »

So I'm presuming that there will be an AAR thread once this is all over with, to discuss why the Democrats have not done as well as anticipated?

Give it a few decades to settle down and hit the Oxford history. I wonder what they'll call this one. Grand Expectations was a bit of a letdown.

Rjd2

Mellor wrote: »

It's a bit premature to be making those sorts of claims tbh.

306 to 232 is very much still on the cards

Not a route, but if we ignore the initial hysteria about Florida it looks a comfortable enough win for Biden as he seems to have won much more swing states than he even needed.

They will have a majority in the house, the republicans have not held the senate yet and Biden has won.

They arguably would have taken that before the counting begun.

Mr.Nice Guy

Seems Arizona can't be written off yet. Even those that expect it to go blue assume it will be very close.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324175453947650050

Exclamation Marc

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324179823565131777?s=19

TomOnBoard

Water John wrote: »

Van Jones was saying that. The Dems need to respect and reflect the positions of their ground supporters esp black women and the Latino members.
Do the likes of Schumer and Pelosi need to be moved sideways? I would say yes. They're white and old, like myself.

Nancy played a blinder in marking Trump. So, she needs to no retire as those skills are no longer required. A younger generation of leadership needs to be introduced. Chuck was a bit meh! during the last term. I'd like to see someone a bit less corporate and a bit more progressive take on that role.

sheeplover55

Mellor wrote: »

It's a bit premature to be making those sorts of claims tbh.

306 to 232 is very much still on the cards

Congressionally. It looks like Senate stays R and R's have picked up a fair chunk of house seats they weren't expected to win.

Polls were polar opposite.

sheeplover55

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Nancy played a blinder in marking Trump. So, she needs to no retire as those skills are no longer required. A younger generation of leadership needs to be introduced. Chuck was a bit meh! during the last term. I'd like to see someone a bit less corporate and a bit more progressive take on that role.

Pelosi isn't smart, she's just there to pander.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1324177989853216768

I'd feel better if Pennsylvania went blue and made Arizona academic.

~Rebel~

sheeplover55 wrote: »

Pelosi isn't smart, she's just there to pander.

Christ, whatever else you want to say about her, she's definitely smart.

sheeplover55

Oh he's made a quantitative edit - how Scientific. New York times +11 Wisconsin, Reuters +10. Same story across all the toss up states.

Collins not a single polling outlet predicted her to win - the average was +10 for her D challenger. She won her race +10.

sheeplover55

~Rebel~ wrote: »

Christ, whatever else you want to say about her, she's definitely smart.

I have a different opinion, obv if she survived so long in politics she's smart - but when was she ever challenged by the press. D party is changing now with AOC and others, they were publicly infighting with op ed articles on the NYT's before Trump stuck his nose in and quashed it essentially. Trump is an absolute idiot, if he played his cards right he could have walked it.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324179050156490754

I think that's between 5am and 8am our time. Yikes.

~Rebel~

sheeplover55 wrote: »

Oh he's made a quantitative edit - how Scientific. New York times +11 Wisconsin, Reuters +10. Same story across all the toss up states.

Collins not a single polling outlet predicted her to win - the average was +10 for her D challenger. She won her race +10.

I mean, yeah... he's literally providing the raw information for you to come to your own conclusion. How many votes left, where they are, and what % would be needed to switch.

~Rebel~

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TalKopan/status/1324179050156490754

I think that's between 5am and 8am our time. Yikes.

Eesh. Ok. That's gonna have to be news i wake up to Im afraid :-/

sheeplover55

~Rebel~ wrote: »

I mean, yeah... he's literally providing the raw information for you to come to your own conclusion. How many votes left, where they are, and what % would be needed to switch.

I could jumble a box of cornflakes around and let you guess how many individual flakes are in the bag too.

Stealing a living - 2016, Brexit and now this election. Look at the congressional races, completely out of whack.