US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

~Rebel~

sheeplover55 wrote: »

I could jumble a box of cornflakes around and let you guess how many individual flakes are in the bag too.

Stealing a living - 2016, Brexit and now this election. Look at the congressional races, completely out of whack.

I'm not sure am I mistaken on something? Are those not just the numbers of the uncounted ballots? Like, nothing to do with polling or prediction, just the raw numbers of how many physical ballots remain to be counted from each county?

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324182358828961794

I hope this is correct. Most of my hopes right now rest on PA.

sheeplover55

~Rebel~ wrote: »

I'm not sure am I mistaken on something? Are those not just the numbers of the uncounted ballots? Like, nothing to do with polling or prediction, just the raw numbers of how many physical ballots remain to be counted from each county?

Fair enough - I was pointing to the polls as a whole.

Mr.Nice Guy

Gap in Georgia now just 33,000.

~Rebel~

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324182358828961794

I hope this is correct. Most of my hopes right now rest on PA.

They just mentioned on CNN that some of the Nevada areas have numbers at the ready but that the states position is to release it all together.

A fearful little piece of me is wondering if they have unfavorable numbers and want to wait for GA or PA to release a Biden victory first so that their own release isn't immediately met by Trump again claiming victory as a result.

Nothing in that im sure, but, im very tired and seeing ghosts everywhere!

Elsewhere, Biden closing the gap still further in GA.

Manic Moran

Rjd2 wrote: »

Not a route, but if we ignore the initial hysteria about Florida it looks a comfortable enough win for Biden as he seems to have won much more swing states than he even needed.

They will have a majority in the house, the republicans have not held the senate yet and Biden has won.

They arguably would have taken that before the counting begun.

Comfortable? Have you missed the last 24 hours' worth of posts on this thread? How comfortable did the posters seem to you?

Sure, the final tally is good, but as we all know, in the winner-takes-all system, the EC votes don't tell the story of just how close it came do the other direction. If you want 'comfortable' in terms of EC, look at the election results from the 1980s.

What better conditions are required for the Democrats to regain control of the Senate? This is the Trump senate and associated with him, ramming supreme court judges through, blocking the House at every turn, and pick whatever other complaint you want, and with far more R seats in the 'tossup' category than D. Only six years ago the Democrats had a majority 55-45 (including the two D-independents). Either the Ds need a better background environment (eg an even worse incumbent Senate), the Republicans had stellar candidates, or the Democrats put forward candidates who did not succeed in reaching the voters. Yes, it's not called yet, but it'll take some reasonably dramatic last second returns to give the Democrats 50. I don't see it happening.

There was also no movement in the state legislatures, now I'm looking. Outside of losing the Montana governor's mansion, they also seem on track to lose the New Hampshire Senate. In return, they get the Arizona House. It is the most stable election in terms of state houses since 1944.

Rjd2

Manic Moran wrote: »

Comfortable? Have you missed the last 24 hours' worth of posts on this thread? How comfortable did the posters seem to you?

Sure, the final tally is good, but as we all know, in the winner-takes-all system, the EC votes don't tell the story of just how close it came do the other direction. If you want 'comfortable' in terms of EC, look at the election results from the 1980s.

What better conditions are required for the Democrats to regain control of the Senate? This is the Trump senate and associated with him, ramming supreme court judges through, blocking the House at every turn, and pick whatever other complaint you want, and with far more R seats in the 'tossup' category than D. Only five years ago the Democrats had a majority 55-45 (including the two D-independents). Either the Ds need a better background environment (eg an even worse incumbent Senate), the Republicans had stellar candidates, or the Democrats put forward candidates who did not succeed in reaching the voters. Yes, it's not called yet, but it'll take some reasonably dramatic last second returns to give the Democrats 50. I don't see it happening.

There was also no movement in the state legislatures, now I'm looking. Outside of losing the Montana governor's mansion, they also seem on track to lose the New Hampshire Senate. In return, they get the Arizona House. It is the most stable election in terms of state houses since 1944.

Ok comfortable was to a little to much:p

Looking at those 2 run offs in January its a serious problem for the GOP, Kelly Loeffler is such a weak candidate, this will be a state that Biden won and that along with the other race will be incredibly close.


The online hysteria I tried to ignore :pac:


When its all said and done, if you are in the GOP in February , a 50/50 senate, a Democrat presidency and Nancy Pelosi in charge of the house, its not ideal.

Also got a civil war coming in the GOP between the populist right lead by the likes of Hawley/Tucker v Haley etc for the soul of the party.

That's going to get incredibly ugly.

Mellor

~Rebel~ wrote: »

I'm not sure am I mistaken on something? Are those not just the numbers of the uncounted ballots? Like, nothing to do with polling or prediction, just the raw numbers of how many physical ballots remain to be counted from each county?

The issue is that they don't actually know how many votes there are to be counted until they have been counted. The media estimates for various states have been adjusted up numerous times.

~Rebel~ wrote: »

They just mentioned on CNN that some of the Nevada areas have numbers at the ready but that the states position is to release it all together.

A fearful little piece of me is wondering if they have unfavorable numbers and want to wait for GA or PA to release a Biden victory first so that their own release isn't immediately met by Trump again claiming victory as a result.
.

Nevada confirmed that they would follow that format long before they would have known the outcome.

Exclamation Marc

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324182358828961794

I hope this is correct. Most of my hopes right now rest on PA.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324191080125026311?s=19

Mellor

Manic Moran wrote: »

Comfortable? Have you missed the last 24 hours' worth of posts on this thread? How comfortable did the posters seem to you?

Sure, the final tally is good, but as we all know, in the winner-takes-all system, the EC votes don't tell the story of just how close it came do the other direction. If you want 'comfortable' in terms of EC, look at the election results from the 1980s.

It will be much closer that the EC results will suggesting.
But the majority of the discomfort was down to the republican votes being counted first and dems having to claw back the wins.
If these states counted postal votes first, we'd be looking Biden establishing a huge lead and Trump's futile attempt to catch him. That's a much more comfortable count back. Even though the votes are the same in both cases.

McHardcore

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

People are dreaming, CNN trying to not declare anything, lets just squeeze another few hours, another few minutes with this dream of winning. Tears in their eyes. It's done, Trump won, and got more votes than last time.

There are so many posts here that are so confident.

Manic Moran

Mellor wrote: »

It will be much closer that the EC results will suggesting.
But the majority of the discomfort was down to the republican votes being counted first and dems having to claw back the wins.
If these states counted postal votes first, we'd be looking Biden establishing a huge lead and Trump's futile attempt to catch him. That's a much more comfortable count back. Even though the votes are the same in both cases.

Wasn't that what happened in Florida? A bunch of postal votes first, then the local tallies? I seem to recall some gnashing of teeth early on when the calls coming in from Miami showed Biden did much worse than Clinton four years prior.

Rjd2

Out of curiosity Manic who do you see as the front runner for 2024 GOP primary?

Tell me how

Rjd2 wrote: »

Out of curiosity Manic who do you see as the front runner for 2024 GOP primary?

I reckon Niki Halley has her eye on that position (and beyond) and will tick a lot of GOP boxes.

Female, ethnic background, 6 year governor, Ambassador to UN, pro-life, walked away from Trump rather than being pushed or leaving in controversy. Supported him via tweets during debates but didn't come out dramatically to bat for him.

Manic Moran

Rjd2 wrote: »

Out of curiosity Manic who do you see as the front runner for 2024 GOP primary?

I have absolutely no clue, I have not devoted a single brain cycle towards it.

Tell Me How has an interesting proposal, mind.

Rjd2

Tell me how wrote: »

I reckon Niki Halley has her eye on that position (and beyond) and will tick a lot of GOP boxes.

Female, ethnic background, 6 year governor, Ambassador to UN, pro-life, walked away from Trump rather than being pushed or leaving in controversy. Supported him via tweets during debates but didn't come out dramatically to bat for him.

Ticks a lot of boxes, but not sure that style of conservatism she likes aka aggressive foreign policy and balanced type budget jargon is really what the party wants right now.

Not good that the most influential conservative voice in America Tucker has gone after her quite regularly also.

Its what makes it so wild, the GOP donor's are libertarian in so many issues, let the market run wild, looser immigration rules etc, but unsure the GOP base are.


Genuinely could make an argument for Ivanka, Don JR, De Santiis, Carlson Crenshaw, Hawley, Hailey and its not even 2021.

Rjd2

Martha Mc Sally should run has flipped two GOP senate seats to the Democrats in 2 years and arguably cost Trump Arizona, for that alone she would be swimming in thank you money from Liberals.

dogbert27

So have all States stopped counting or just Nevada taking a break?

Tell me how

Rjd2 wrote: »

Genuinely could make an argument for Ivanka, Don JR, De Santiis, Carlson Crenshaw, Hawley, Hailey and its not even 2021.

I'd take Don Jr off that list.
Think he would be happy 'managing' an office block or something for a few hundred k a year away from the limelight.
Michael Cohens book painted him as someone close to being continually bullied and demeaned by his father, I just don't see him as having the appetite for it.

I'd add Mike Pence to that list instead of Don Jr.
Wouldn't rule out Paul Ryan making a comeback either, think he withdrew as much to distance himself from Trump who he had butted heads with. He's also on the Board of Fox so could expect a favourable narrative from them.

To be honest, I'm only thinking about this to distract me from hitting refresh on the results page.

Rjd2

Tell me how wrote: »

I'd take Don Jr off that list.
Think he would be happy 'managing' an office block or something for a few hundred k a year away from the limelight.
Michael Cohens book painted him as someone close to being continually bullied and demeaned by his father, I just don't see him as having the appetite for it.

I'd add Mike Pence to that list instead of Don Jr.
Wouldn't rule out Paul Ryan making a comeback either, think he withdrew as much to distance himself from Trump who he had butted heads with. He's also on the Board of Fox so could expect a favourable narrative from them.

To be honest, I'm only thinking about this to distract me from hitting refresh on the results page.

Would be hilarious if Jr ran and Sr endorsed someone else. :pac:

" He doesn't have the magic does little Donny".

Realistically whoever Trump endorses will have a huge chance, Hailey, Crenshaw, De Santis and to a lesser extent Hawley have done a good job in keeping on the right side of him even though in private they probably loath him.

Its probably better for them that Trump does not serve a second term as it would be near impossible for any GOP person to win the presidency in 2024 after 8 years of Trump.

dogbert27

Rjd2 wrote: »

Would be hilarious if Jr ran and Sr endorsed someone else. :pac:

" He doesn't have the magic does little Donny".

Realistically whoever Trump endorses will have a huge chance, Hailey, Crenshaw, De Santis and to a lesser extent Hawley have done a good job in keeping on the right side of him even though in private they probably loath him.

Its probably better for them that Trump does not serve a second term as it would be near impossible for any GOP person to win the presidency in 2024 after 8 years of Trump.

Would a Trump Snr. endorsement have much credibility after he flees the country on losing the election?

Mellor

Manic Moran wrote: »

Wasn't that what happened in Florida? A bunch of postal votes first, then the local tallies? I seem to recall some gnashing of teeth early on when the calls coming in from Miami showed Biden did much worse than Clinton four years prior.

No he lost Florida. The order of counting wouldn't change that.

I'm talking about Wis, Mich, Penn, and Georgia. It superficially look bad initially due to the count order. Had they need reversed it looks like Biden cruised home on 300+ ECs

dogbert27

22,500 votes separating Georgia with 98% of the count done.

0.4% difference.

Itssoeasy

Right so that was amazing six hours of sleep. Anyway I had msnbc audio playing on my phone and I see that nothing has changed in terms of anyone winning more states but there are still those trump supporters outside that county centre in Michigan.

Itssoeasy

So it seems that Paula white the White House spiritual advisor has been holding a public prayer service trying to secure trumps re-election. I doubt that will bear any fruit. I see some trump advocates are saying this is war and one is going to philly.

BobbyMalone

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I hope this is correct. Most of my hopes right now rest on PA.

Yeah, PA for Biden would absolutely tip him over the line. I'm guessing that's why Trump declared it for himself ages ago.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

dogbert27 wrote: »

22,500 votes separating Georgia with 98% of the count done.

0.4% difference.

So by my calculation 2% of the vote is ~102k votes. Is there any indication of how those remaining votes will split?

paul71

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

So by my calculation 2% of the vote is ~102k votes. Is there any indication of how those remaining votes will split?

The most recent counts are breaking 75-80% in favour of Biden in Georgia. Can I ask where you are getting 2% the AP website is saying Georgia is 5% but I cannot figure out how they got that either.

Roanmore

Just watching CNN, Arizona seems to be tightening.

Not in Kansas

paul71 wrote: »

The most recent counts are breaking 75-80% in favour of Biden in Georgia. Can I ask where you are getting 2% the AP website is saying Georgia is 5% but I cannot figure out how they got that either.

AP says 98% count in for Georgia for me.