US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

paul71 wrote: »

The most recent counts are breaking 75-80% in favour of Biden in Georgia. Can I ask where you are getting 2% the AP website is saying Georgia is 5% but I cannot figure out how they got that either.

I worked it out from one of the main news site that had the state of play after 95% of votes were in. They said how many votes that 95% was so I just worked it out from there.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Roanmore wrote: »

Just watching CNN, Arizona seems to be tightening.

Eep! :eek:

Dillonb3

I saw last night the remaining Arizona votes were expected to be Republican so Biden may need Georgia or Pennsylvania to be safe.
Edit: Votes are late ballots

Christy42

Yeah I don't get the confidence. Biden looks to be a big favourite through having many routes but it isn't certain in enough places yet for us to be sure.

Honestly Trump's temper tantrums are the main thing calming my nerves as it makes me feel his officials (who have more info on ongoing counts) have told him he will lose.

Roanmore

It's funny how the Republicans want the count to stop in PA but want all the votes counted in AZ. They can't have it both ways, at least Biden is consistent, count every vote.

paul71

Not in Kansas wrote: »

AP says 98% count in for Georgia for me.

Ok I was reading the results map on RTE not the AP one. my mistake the RTE one is wrong on the uncounted %, so 100k left in Georgia but on the current rate of voting 75:25 Biden will win by 16k or 17k.

~Rebel~

~Rebel~ wrote: »

They just mentioned on CNN that some of the Nevada areas have numbers at the ready but that the states position is to release it all together.

A fearful little piece of me is wondering if they have unfavorable numbers and want to wait for GA or PA to release a Biden victory first so that their own release isn't immediately met by Trump again claiming victory as a result.

Nothing in that im sure, but, im very tired and seeing ghosts everywhere!

Elsewhere, Biden closing the gap still further in GA.

Nevada Secretary of State is a Republican

rob808

I alway find it funny when there a trump supporters on sky news they sound like trump repeating the same misinformed information as he saying lol.

It looking tight now but if joe win the 3 states he winning in he should do it.

StringerBell

Race narrows again slightly in Arizona. Guys on CNN saying that on that pace trump would get very close to taking the be state but that they don't expect that pace to last in the next batches due to the composition of them.

devnull

Talk of Trump supporters now gathering in Arizona, weapons such as assualt rifles in tow accoring to Sky News.

Not surprising if true due to the way they are being whipped up by Trump.

Slattsy

devnull wrote: »

Talk of Trump supporters now gathering in Arizona, weapons such as assualt rifles in tow accoring to Sky News.

Not surprising if true due to the way they are being whipped up by Trump.

It's exactly what he was hoping would happen.

Not in Kansas

CNN suggest that the Dems confidence in predicting they will hold on to Arizona is based on the data the campaign has on the who and where of requested mail in ballots.

Slattsy

Too many assumptions for me, Biden is not home and dry yet. People seem reliant that he'll get Pennsylvania but I'm not so sure, gap is still too big to be confident.

bennyl10

Slattsy wrote: »

Too many assumptions for me, Biden is not home and dry yet. People seem reliant that he'll get Pennsylvania but I'm not so sure, gap is still too big to be confident.

He doesn’t need pA though

He should get one of Georgia Arizona or NV

Georgia or NV look likely

Christy42

He needs two of them though. Or at least NV itself isn't enough to put him over the line.

Also why are there protestors in Arizona? Biden was ahead so they want them to count the votes and if they didn't protest they would be counting the votes. I am really confused as to what they want out of that.

everlast75

Christy42 wrote: »

He needs two of them though. Or at least NV itself isn't enough to put him over the line.

Also why are there protestors in Arizona? Biden was ahead so they want them to count the votes and if they didn't protest they would be counting the votes. I am really confused as to what they want out of that.

"Trump supporters in non sensical protests" would hardly make a headline these days

Brian?

devnull wrote: »

Talk of Trump supporters now gathering in Arizona, weapons such as assualt rifles in tow accoring to Sky News.

Not surprising if true due to the way they are being whipped up by Trump.

Just saw them on NBC. So far peaceful but loud.

I wouldn’t worry about them being armed. Everyone in Az is armed. I used to live there, gun nut central. Even the sane people have guns.

VinLieger

Jesus i tried watching sky news but its like american politics for beginners, back to CNN

Brian?

Slattsy wrote: »

Too many assumptions for me, Biden is not home and dry yet. People seem reliant that he'll get Pennsylvania but I'm not so sure, gap is still too big to be confident.

He doesn’t need Pa.

Roanmore

Christy42 wrote: »

He needs two of them though. Or at least NV itself isn't enough to put him over the line.

Also why are there protestors in Arizona? Biden was ahead so they want them to count the votes and if they didn't protest they would be counting the votes. I am really confused as to what they want out of that.

Yeah, exactly what I was saying earlier. Rudy is in PA trying to get the count stopped as they are 100k ahead but in AZ they want every vote counted.
Makes no sense and you'd wonder would it hurt any legal challenge they might try and initiate.

Brian?

Christy42 wrote: »

He needs two of them though. Or at least NV itself isn't enough to put him over the line.

Also why are there protestors in Arizona? Biden was ahead so they want them to count the votes and if they didn't protest they would be counting the votes. I am really confused as to what they want out of that.

Because they’re angry, they’re bad losers.

They were shouting “Fox news sucks” earlier because Fox has called Az early for Biden.

prawnsambo

Roanmore wrote: »

Yeah, exactly what I was saying earlier. Rudy is in PA trying to get the count stopped as they are 100k ahead but in AZ they want every vote counted.
Makes no sense and you'd wonder would it hurt any legal challenge they might try and initiate.

It's internally consistent. They only want Trump votes counted.

Christy42

Christy42 wrote: »

He needs two of them though. Or at least NV itself isn't enough to put him over the line.

Also why are there protestors in Arizona? Biden was ahead so they want them to count the votes and if they didn't protest they would be counting the votes. I am really confused as to what they want out of that.

They want the impression of doubt - or that's what those whipping them into a frenzy want. If the count is disrupted, they can claim fraud. If every vote is counted, it is harder to have that message heard

circadian

Roanmore wrote: »

Christy42 wrote: »

He needs two of them though. Or at least NV itself isn't enough to put him over the line.

Also why are there protestors in Arizona? Biden was ahead so they want them to count the votes and if they didn't protest they would be counting the votes. I am really confused as to what they want out of that.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, exactly what I was saying earlier. Rudy is in PA trying to get the count stopped as they are 100k ahead but in AZ they want every vote counted.
Makes no sense and you'd wonder would it hurt any legal challenge they might try and initiate.

That argument would get thrown out of court immediately due to the inconsistency. Regardless of the Supreme Court being stacked with two of Trumps picks I'd imagine they'd be glad to be rid of him as he brings a high possibility of a constitutional crisis.

bennyl10

CNN saying Biden will be very close on georgia

but he should hold in Nevada and Arizona

prawnsambo

bennyl10 wrote: »

CNN saying Biden will be very close on georgia

but he should hold in Nevada and Arizona

Yeah, I had a close look at Georgia using the data on Decision Desk HQ. There's a possible 18k margin available to Biden based on counties that have a reasonable amount of votes left to count (using the lower of the %age range tbf). There are also a lot of bigger voting areas that are incomplete, but where 1% of the vote would translate into anything from a 3k to a 5k margin. So too close to call, but there is definitely a path to victory there.

Using the same criteria, I can't see a path to victory for Trump in Arizona. Remaining numbers are too small (assuming they are correct of course).

0gac3yjefb5sv7

What are the next States due to post results? Will we have a winner today

Christy42

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, I had a close look at Georgia using the data on Decision Desk HQ. There's a possible 18k margin available to Biden based on counties that have a reasonable amount of votes left to count (using the lower of the %age range tbf). There are also a lot of bigger voting areas that are incomplete, but where 1% of the vote would translate into anything from a 3k to a 5k margin. So too close to call, but there is definitely a path to victory there.

Using the same criteria, I can't see a path to victory for Trump in Arizona. Remaining numbers are too small (assuming they are correct of course).

I think about 60% required for Trump in Arizona. Not sure where remaining votes are coming from in terms of mail in/city etc.

prawnsambo

Christy42 wrote: »

I think about 60% required for Trump in Arizona. Not sure where remaining votes are coming from in terms of mail in/city etc.

The majority (Max 140k) are tagged to Clark County (Las Vegas) which is currently split 52/46 for Biden.

prawnsambo

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, I had a close look at Georgia using the data on Decision Desk HQ. There's a possible 18k margin available to Biden based on counties that have a reasonable amount of votes left to count (using the lower of the %age range tbf). There are also a lot of bigger voting areas that are incomplete, but where 1% of the vote would translate into anything from a 3k to a 5k margin. So too close to call, but there is definitely a path to victory there.

Using the same criteria, I can't see a path to victory for Trump in Arizona. Remaining numbers are too small (assuming they are correct of course).

There is a caveat with Arizona - a large amount of assumptions that postal votes skew blue. There is a longstanding significant postal vote in Arizona among Republicans, so will be more represented in the postal votes than elsewhere. This is however a certain section of the republican population, traditional Arizona McCain voters, probably the Republicans most likely to vote against Trump.