US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

MJohnston

Movementarian wrote: »

Am I alone in still having a nervous feeling that Trump will still somehow squeak this by winning Arizona, Georgia and Pensylvania?....

Just can't shake it...really hope not...

What’s keeping me confident in Arizona is how much Fox News’ decision desk have been pressure over it in the last 24 hours, and how firm they’re standing on the choice.

murpho999

Movementarian wrote: »

Am I alone in still having a nervous feeling that Trump will still somehow squeak this by winning Arizona, Georgia and Pensylvania?....

Just can't shake it...really hope not...

It's highly unlikely at this stage and more likely that Biden could take all three.

Mr.Nice Guy

Movementarian wrote: »

Am I alone in still having a nervous feeling that Trump will still somehow squeak this by winning Arizona, Georgia and Pensylvania?....

Just can't shake it...really hope not...

Understandable to be anxious, especially with the way this year has been for horror moments. Pennsylvania is keeping me from being a nervous wreck right now. As long as those in the know are positive about there then the other states become less significant for the arithmetic.

Brian?

peteeeed wrote: »

yeah i meant you would think the POTUS would be the one protecting it not causing the chaos

I agree. He's an absolute disgrace

Akabusi

Movementarian wrote: »

Am I alone in still having a nervous feeling that Trump will still somehow squeak this by winning Arizona, Georgia and Pensylvania?....

Just can't shake it...really hope not...

Calm down, this is done. Enjoy the bile that will come from Trump and his supporters in the coming hours.

MJohnston

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye it will be an interesting Dynamic, it actually looks like Trump has really got out his vote well, and dragged up down ticket people with turnout, one would assume in a run up the GOP vote will be a lot softer, hopefully the Dem voters remember how important those reruns are to Biden and his ability to shape the country.

Looking at what Dave Weigel (WaPo) has been saying on Twitter, he thinks a lot of the softness in the Democrat vote is because they had very little door knocking presence. Obviously that was arguably the right call given Covid (and the assumption that Trump’s poor handling of it would be a vote loser for him), although I think you could do it safely anyway.

I bet we’ll see a really heavy on the ground operation for Dems in GA for the runoff.

seamus

Movementarian wrote: »

Am I alone in still having a nervous feeling that Trump will still somehow squeak this by winning Arizona, Georgia and Pensylvania?....

Just can't shake it...really hope not...

The last four years have taught us all that it's never over until the fat lady sings. No matter how likely an outcome appears, it's not over till its over.

I'm looking at the counts and the states, and while it's all stacked in Biden's favour right now, I'm distinctly aware that it's not over the line yet.

I'm taking the most solace in the noise coming out of both camps. For each state they have a team of people who are monitoring the numbers down to the district level and are constantly running the tallies and running the projections.

Biden's team think they've won it. Trump's team think they've lost it.

The odds of them both getting it wrong are very, very slim.

Brussels Sprout

is_that_so wrote: »

Comment on Biden on CNN that this is just the right time for him to be a Presidential candidate and that he has the ideal skill set for a post-Trump landscape. The question is, what could he, as President, get done in the face of a probable Rep Senate.

Good question.

What he can do:

• Reverse any or all of Trump's Executive orders (Paris Climate change, Iran Deal, Muslim ban etc)
• Get all of the Trump staff out of the Executive branch (e.g. Steven Miller)
• Appoint all of the various secretaries of the various government departments - although i believe they would also need senate approval but they could do the jobs in an acting capacity
• Appoint people to federal positions (such as head of the US post office for example)
• Dictate Foreign policy
• Command the armed forces
• Gets all of the soft power / media attention that comes with the presidency
• Gets the casting vote in the Senate (via the VP) should there be any 50/50 ties
• Nominate Federal & supreme court judges

What they cannot do with the Republicans likely holding the Senate

• pass any major legislation on health care reform, voting rights, environmental issues etc without Republican support - back to everyone hanging their hat on the decisions of Collins and Murkowski
• Get rid of the filibuster in the Senate
• Get statehood for Puerto Rico & D.C.
• Get their preferred judges confirmed to federal positions or the supreme court without republican support - 82 year old Stephen Breyer cannot retire from the Supreme Court safe in the knowledge that Biden could get an equally liberal justice confirmed in his place
• add extra judges to the supreme court (packing the court)

droidus

MJohnston wrote: »

Looking at what Dave Weigel (WaPo) has been saying on Twitter, he thinks a lot of the softness in the Democrat vote is because they had very little door knocking presence. Obviously that was arguably the right call given Covid (and the assumption that Trump’s poor handling of it would be a vote loser for him), although I think you could do it safely anyway.

I bet we’ll see a really heavy on the ground operation for Dems in GA for the runoff.

Yup. You have to give trump credit for a very effective and incredibly ruthless and cynical campaign. They've been building a ground operation for nearly 4 years, and when it came to the virus they were willing to infect tens of thousands to give him the last push that almost won it for him.

Roanmore

droidus wrote: »

Yup. You have to give trump credit for a very effective and incredibly ruthless and cynical campaign. They've been building a ground operation for nearly 4 years, and when it came to the virus they were willing to infect tens of thousands to give him the last push that almost won it for him.

The irony is if he actually showed leadership on the virus he’d have probably run away with it.

Dillonb3

MJohnston wrote: »

Looking at what Dave Weigel (WaPo) has been saying on Twitter, he thinks a lot of the softness in the Democrat vote is because they had very little door knocking presence. Obviously that was arguably the right call given Covid (and the assumption that Trump’s poor handling of it would be a vote loser for him), although I think you could do it safely anyway.

I bet we’ll see a really heavy on the ground operation for Dems in GA for the runoff.

Apparently Rashida Tlaib's staff done a lot of that for the Democrats in Michigan and Ilhan Omar's in Minnesota

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Nice visual here.

https://twitter.com/urbanthoughts11/status/1324271661181509632

Gbear

Brian? wrote: »

Honestly, people need to calm down about the guns. These guys are armed every day. They didn't take the gun out of storage to go protesting.

Most of the long rifles are 22 calibre semi autos. If things kick off they haven't a hope against the police or National Guard. They know that.

No, they don't.

Guns can kill people.

They don't need to get into a shootout to sabotage democracy. Their mere presence with deadly force is straightforward terrorism, and designed to disrupt the count and threaten the safety and lives of those working to complete it.

Infini

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Good question.

What he can do:

• Reverse any or all of Trump's Executive orders (Paris Climate change, Iran Deal, Muslim ban etc)
• Get all of the Trump staff out of the Executive branch (e.g. Steven Miller)
• Appoint all of the various secretaries of the various government departments - although i believe they would also need senate approval but they could do the jobs in an acting capacity
• Appoint people to federal positions (such as head of the US post office for example)
• Dictate Foreign policy
• Command the armed forces
• Gets all of the soft power / media attention that comes with the presidency
• Gets the casting vote in the Senate (via the VP) should there be any 50/50 ties
• Nominate Federal & supreme court judges

What they cannot do with the Republicans likely holding the Senate

• pass any major legislation on health care reform, voting rights, environmental issues etc without Republican support - back to everyone hanging their hat on the decisions of Collins and Murkowski
• Get rid of the filibuster in the Senate
• Get statehood for Puerto Rico & D.C.
• Get their preferred judges confirmed to federal positions or the supreme court without republican support - 82 year old Stephen Breyer cannot retire from the Supreme Court safe in the knowledge that Biden could get an equally liberal justice confirmed in his place
• add extra judges to the supreme court (packing the court)

For now Damage Control and repairing as much of the damage as possible caused by Trump is the priority. Even IF Biden doesnt get the Senate now there's the mid terms in 2022 that could turn things around but they'd need to retain control of congress as well in order to do that.

Jo jo the eskimo

If Bidan is to talk about unity he really needs to explain himself more. Remember Obama said all this stuff, what Bidan said yesterday sounded exactly the same.
Is he talking about Trumps base or Republican who voted with trump over 90% of the time and kept him there or q or what???

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324341633928826880

Biden's chances in Georgia sound promising.

listermint

Jo jo the eskimo wrote: »

If Bidan is to talk about unity he really needs to explain himself more. Remember Obama said all this stuff, what Bidan said yesterday sounded exactly the same.
Is he talking about Trumps base or Republican who voted with trump over 90% of the time and kept him there or q or what???

He's talking about Americans.

.

Christy42

Brian? wrote: »

Honestly, people need to calm down about the guns. These guys are armed every day. They didn't take the gun out of storage to go protesting.

Most of the long rifles are 22 calibre semi autos. If things kick off they haven't a hope against the police or National Guard. They know that.

they are not all there. They are chanting count the votes at people all ready counting the votes. Imagine someone giving you a cup of tea and you give out to them that they haven't brought a cup of tea. I would not feel safe with that level ó logic and a gun near me.

If they didn't want to be characterised by their guns they could have not brought them. This was their choice and is on them really.

Finally if some nut does kick off the guard can easily handle them. However not before that nut has a chance to kill some people. So not good enough.

peteeeed

CNN say 144000 left to count in philly

Movementarian

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324341633928826880

Biden's chances in Georgia sound promising.

Wow thats really close...will likely be a recount either way maybe

Exclamation Marc

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324341633928826880

Biden's chances in Georgia sound promising.

As an FYI of 2016 totals.

https://twitter.com/jeparlenorvegi1/status/1324339142986289152?s=20

StringerBell

Even as Biden closes the gap to 100k+ in PA and he is in with a shout in Georgia I'm actually more concerned today than I've been for the last two days that he may just fall at the line, the only thing keeping me quiet really is that trump clearly thinks he's lost so I assume his campaign teams projections are for him to lose if all votes get counted.

murpho999

peteeeed wrote: »

CNN say 144000 left to count in philly

Ok, what's the gap now?

Google's tracker (from AP) shows as 89% in an Biden is 164,418 votes behind.

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+presidential+election+2020&rlz=1C1CHBD_enIE859IE859&oq=us+p&aqs=chrome.3.69i57j69i59j35i39j0i131i433i457j0i131i433j69i60l3.3897j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Inquitus

peteeeed wrote: »

CNN say 144000 left to count in philly

Is that total outstanding for PA, or just the Philadelphia outstanding? 144k would not be enough to get Biden over the line alone as the gap is currently 153,187.

Current most up to date figures: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/

Brian?

Gbear wrote: »

No, they don't.

Guns can kill people.

They don't need to get into a shootout to sabotage democracy. Their mere presence with deadly force is straightforward terrorism, and designed to disrupt the count and threaten the safety and lives of those working to complete it.

I'm sorry, but that's hyperbole.

StringerBell

peteeeed wrote: »

CNN say 144000 left to count in philly

Yeah bit sure what the count is for the whole state but Biden will need to dominate the remaining ballots, the bulk of which are mail in which gives him a shot but there are election day votes too mixed in which are more likely to be closer.

Hopefully will have a clear picture before much longer.

prawnsambo

murpho999 wrote: »

Ok, what's the gap now?

Google's tracker (from AP) shows as 89% in an Biden is 164,418 votes behind.

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+presidential+election+2020&rlz=1C1CHBD_enIE859IE859&oq=us+p&aqs=chrome.3.69i57j69i59j35i39j0i131i433i457j0i131i433j69i60l3.3897j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

It's a bit confusing as I think there's vote reporting and vote counting and they are different numbers.

Call Me Jimmy

pixelburp wrote: »

Looking at the figures, Trump apparently increased his votes overall, while his share among whites; so if Biden is truly going for reconciliation it'll take a lot of work. Trumpism seems to be something that won't disappear overnight - especially if the man himself continues to badger from the sidelines. The cult has asserted itself and even if the transfer of power goes smoothly (it won't), the stain will linger. The midterms will be interesting, insofar as seeing what GOP members adopt Trumpist approaches.

It's not simply Trumpism though, it's also people who either were positive or neutral towards him based on policies. He did things different to previous administrations that people wanted to see and the vacuum will be filled by someone else. Hopefully it is someone more polished and less divisive, if that's the case the democrats are going to have a real problem next election because it is a tent that is only getting larger. Democrats seem to be moving towards going after old republicans rather than populists on either side.

murpho999

StringerBell wrote: »

Even as Biden closes the gap to 100k+ in PA and he is in with a shout in Georgia I'm actually more concerned today than I've been for the last two days that he may just fall at the line, the only thing keeping me quiet really is that trump clearly thinks he's lost so I assume his campaign teams projections are for him to lose if all votes get counted.

But he doesn't need either.

Arizona & Nevada is all he needs.

I think he has a great chance in Georgia though.

Water John

The 144K is Philly city area. A lot more state wide.