US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

everlast75

I'm sorry if others have posted here re this point, but I had assumed the race for the Senate was over


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324382400814698496?s=20

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Brian? wrote: »

Very soon

I think we're only getting Fulton County soon but I'm open to correction?

everlast75

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1324385139938439168?s=19

Hopefully the trend of things to come...

Nody

everlast75 wrote: »

I'm sorry if others have posted here re this point, but I had assumed the race for the Senate was over


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324382400814698496?s=20

First seat is confirmed; second had 2002 votes above the 50% mark last time I saw numbers. That would put the senate at 50 (Rep) vs. 48 (Dem) as a starting point. For obvious reason both sides will pour money into the fight but I highly doubt Dems will get both; maybe one if lucky.

Kiith

9k votes up for grabs in Fulton now. Biden could cut Trumps lead in half in the next few minutes.

VinLieger

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1324385139938439168?s=19

Hopefully the trend of things to come...

Hes claiming some legal win in PA which i cant see any info anywhere about

Exclamation Marc

Biden campaign streaming a "Where we Stand" video on Youtube.

Claiming they are on track to win Nevada, Pennsylvania and calling Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. On PA - "We are nearing parity and continue to project most of the remaining ballots will given Biden the win".

You would hope (and assume) that these are extremely educated predictions given the nature of the opposition should it go belly up.

droidus

Its looking very close in Nevada https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1324369122533142528

jasonb

AP have released a statement saying they're continuing to watch and analyse vote count results in Arizona. That's all the statement says really! I think what they're saying is we called it for Biden, and we still stand by that, but we're keeping an eye on it. Which I assume they're doing in all the counts! But it definitely doesn't sound like they're thinking of retracting their call...

Christy42

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Biden campaign streaming a "Where we Stand" video on Youtube.

Claiming they are on track to win Nevada, Pennsylvania and calling Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. On PA - "We are nearing parity and continue to project most of the remaining ballots will given Biden the win".

You would hope (and assume) that these are extremely educated predictions given the nature of the opposition should it go belly up.

Worrying that Georgia isn't mentioned?

I mean they are obviously biased. Trump will lay into them no matter what and it is expected both sides will map out their paths to victory.

10000maniacs

Georgia will be a recount anyway. Its going to be a few 1000 either way.

MikeCork2009

Christy42 wrote: »

Worrying that Georgia isn't mentioned?

I mean they are obviously biased. Trump will lay into them no matter what and it is expected both sides will map out their paths to victory.

Georgia is mentioned. It was just on the second slide of their presentation.

Christy42

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Biden campaign streaming a "Where we Stand" video on Youtube.

Claiming they are on track to win Nevada, Pennsylvania and calling Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. On PA - "We are nearing parity and continue to project most of the remaining ballots will given Biden the win".

You would hope (and assume) that these are extremely educated predictions given the nature of the opposition should it go belly up.

Note Trump's campaign are also predicting PA and AZ. I wouldn't put much stock into what both sides predict for themselves.

Itssoeasy

Christy42 wrote: »

Worrying that Georgia isn't mentioned?

I mean they are obviously biased. Trump will lay into them no matter what and it is expected both sides will map out their paths to victory.

The numbers that seem to have just come out recently sound promising for joe Biden. I mean Biden can get Pennsylvania and that’s the ball game and could run up the score with the others. Trump is at 213 so presumably would need Pennsylvania in whatever run he would need to make to 270. I think it’s fair to say that Biden has more paths to 270 and with Pennsylvania he has a far more direct path.

Edit: Georgia was mentioned in the video.

Itssoeasy

10000maniacs wrote: »

Georgia will be a recount anyway. Its going to be a few 1000 either way.

What’s the threshold for a recount in Georgia do we know ?

Brian?

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

I think we're only getting Fulton County soon but I'm open to correction?

Yeah. I was wrong.

Christy42

MikeCork2009 wrote: »

Georgia is mentioned. It was just on the second slide of their presentation.

Ty. Can't watch myself at the moment. Was worried they knew something for a moment as there is no way I wouldn't be calling Georgia for Biden with the publicly available data if I was on Bidens's team.

paul71

Christy42 wrote: »

Note Trump's campaign are also predicting PA and AZ. I wouldn't put much stock into what both sides predict for themselves.

The last count of 13,000 (in the last 20 minutes) votes in Philadelphia came in at 12,000 for Biden 1,000 for Trump, looks like PA will be about 150,000 to 200,000 for Biden.

Itssoeasy

14 min ago
USPS processed thousands of ballots yesterday in battleground states
From CNN's Paul Murphy
According to data submitted today in federal court filings, the USPS processed thousands of ballots Wednesday in critical battleground states. If properly postmarked, those could be counted in accordance with state laws.

This data does not tell us whether the ballots were postmarked by or on Election Day, or if they were delivered Wednesday.

Here's a look at the processed ballots:

In the Nevada Sierra district, which covers most of Nevada, 9,037 ballots were processed by USPS.
In the Greensboro and Mid-Carolinas districts, 5,915 ballots were processed. These districts split North Carolina, and small parts of Virginia and South Carolina.
In Pennsylvania, USPS processed 6,877 ballots across the state: 3,494 in the Central Pennsylvania district, 1,667 in the Philadelphia Metro district (this district does cover some parts of New Jersey and Delaware), and 1,716 in Western Pennsylvania.

An interesting story from CNN about ballots the USPS found after that sweep. The ones to look at are Nevada and Pennsylvania.

beggars_bush

And now we see why Trump and friends tried to defund the postal service

Nody

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What’s the threshold for a recount in Georgia do we know ?

Recount can be requested if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5%. The recount must be requested within two business days after county certification.

Taken from here.

Akabusi

Just under 15K difference in GA now

Brian?

Anyone know what the longest count ever was in a US presidential election.

This one must be close, it's been going on for 3 years now.

letowski

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What’s the threshold for a recount in Georgia do we know ?

0.5%. And I'd expect it will be in that threshold.

Itssoeasy

Brian? wrote: »

Anyone know what the longest count ever was in a US presidential election.

This one must be close, it's been going on for 3 years now.

Florida in 2000 ? I’m sure there are elections in the early years of the history of America that took a long time because of the era.

paul71

Does anyone know when Military votes come in? Are they typically the last, even after other postal votes? I am thinking that Georgia could be so close that that would make a difference.

murpho999

10000maniacs wrote: »

Georgia will be a recount anyway. Its going to be a few 1000 either way.

Even so , a recount historically only changes results by a few hundred votes.

Whatever result is callled later is most likely to be the final result.

spacecoyote

I thought that Georgia had a much tighter recount threshold of 0.1% but may have read incorrectly, or that could be a different state?

Itssoeasy

Trumps lead in Georgia is down to just under 14,000.

extra gravy

bennyl10 wrote: »

4/5 am

Is this our time? Wish I could do another late night but not able!