US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324461436224053251

Wow, clearly the Trumps don't give a sh1t about the Republican party. This will be taken to heart by many of his followers.

prawnsambo

jasonb wrote: »

Trump's lead in PA goes under 100k, now 98k.

Death by a hundred thousand cuts.

josip

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Apparently 340,000 mail ballots remaining, and as Biden has been getting around 72% of those, he'll easily take the lead.

Using those numbers, he'd win by around 40,000 votes which is a clear win, but maybe not easy.
If that 72% were to drop to less than 65% however, PA would go to Trump based on c. 340,000 remaining and a 98,000 lead.

paul71

Water John wrote: »

Well DeJoy was doing his work dismantling the postal system. It was a plan but a piss poor one.

Dejoy could be in jail by as early as next week, contempt of court does not require a trial.

L1011

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324461436224053251

Wow, clearly the Trumps don't give a sh1t about the Republican party. This will be taken to heart by many of his followers.

If the Trumps want to split the Republicans for the 2024 elections, let them - FPTP will then give the Democrats a landslide re-election, the House and most or all of the 10 Republican Senate seats up.

Foxtrol

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

On a side note, those corona virus numbers are desperate and you'd imagine in about 2 weeks there will be a bit of a spike from these elections.

It is horrible but looking from a purely political perspective the timing might be the best situation for Biden.

Given the the escalating cases, especially in GOP state, by January when Biden takes over the GOP Governors will have either placed extra restrictions that they are currently against or their states will have enormous death rates. It should make it easier for Biden to step in, whereas if he took over today the anti-mask/anti-lockdown protests would be enormous.

Similarly, it wouldn't be surprising if they end up being able to make another deal on stimulus before Biden comes in, as the pockets of red states will be hurting having to deal with the number of cases.

prawnsambo

Something is afoot.

Quin_Dub

breezy1985 wrote: »

Christ could you imagine the witch hunt if 1 vote came back Trump

TO be fair , think this was the 1st time they've had 100% for one candidate in the 60 odd years they've been doing this midnight thing.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324461436224053251

Wow, clearly the Trumps don't give a sh1t about the Republican party. This will be taken to heart by many of his followers.

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324454049014521857

Don Jr with a bit more subtely but there looks to be an internal war brewing in the Republican party. It will be very interesting to hear what Trump says in the coming days.

Mr.Nice Guy

Arizona Secretary of State confirmed updated results due from Maricopa County expected at 2am our time.

L1011

L1011 wrote: »

If the Trumps want to split the Republicans for the 2024 elections, let them - FPTP will then give the Democrats a landslide re-election, the House and most or all of the 10 Republican Senate seats up.

Was thinking about that myself but I wouldn't be so sure. Turnout was ridiculously high this time around for both parties. So Trump has a huge number of supporters, more than last time around. Will the Democratic turnout stay as high next time?
On top of the we have a huge recession coming. People talking about Harris in 2024 make me laugh because in a 2-horse race in 2024 the Democrats are not going to get near 50%.
Depressed Dem turnout from a recession, huge Trump support and general protest votes because of the recession and I could easily see none of the 3 getting 270 in the electoral college.

Mr.Nice Guy

Trump's lead in Georgia now below 10k.

L1011

Deleted User wrote: »

Was thinking about that myself but I wouldn't be so sure. Turnout was ridiculously high this time around for both parties. So Trump has a huge number of supporters, more than last time around. Will the Democratic turnout stay as high next time?
On top of the we have a huge recession coming. People talking about Harris in 2024 make me laugh because in a 2-horse race in 2024 the Democrats are not going to get near 50%.
Depressed Dem turnout from a recession, huge Trump support and general protest votes because of the recession and I could easily see none of the 3 getting 270 in the electoral college.

Remember only two states do anything other than winner takes all

A depressed Dem turnout is still going to get them the bulk or all of the ~210 they're basically guaranteed; plus there will be sufficient states where the Reps and Trumps split the opposition so that 35-40% for Dem is enough to take it.

derfderf

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

You're giving Trump too much credit there - he is no where near clever enough to have come up with that plan.

It's not that clever of a plan. It's very transparent.

Retr0gamer

Deleted User wrote: »

Was thinking about that myself but I wouldn't be so sure. Turnout was ridiculously high this time around for both parties. So Trump has a huge number of supporters, more than last time around. Will the Democratic turnout stay as high next time?
On top of the we have a huge recession coming. People talking about Harris in 2024 make me laugh because in a 2-horse race in 2024 the Democrats are not going to get near 50%.
Depressed Dem turnout from a recession, huge Trump support and general protest votes because of the recession and I could easily see none of the 3 getting 270 in the electoral college.

Donald Trump with the advantage of being the incumbent has managed to blow it during this election. The GOP will drop him like a hot snot. He won't be back. I expect he will probably leave the country to a country with no extradition to the states afterwards to avoid the up coming convictions. The GOP will be looking for someone else to bring them back into relevance.

murpho999

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

You're giving Trump too much credit there - he is no where near clever enough to have come up with that plan.

Trump may be a lot of things but hes not stupid.

He knew months ago that this election would be difficult.

Why do you think he claimed months ago that postal votes could be fraudulent?

Then as soon as things start slipping he has a legal strategy ready straight away.

everlast75

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324454049014521857

Don Jr with a bit more subtely but there looks to be an internal war brewing in the Republican party. It will be very interesting to hear what Trump says in the coming days.

Looks to me like self preservation is kickin in for the GOP.

Trump is only useful while president. They need to distance themselves from him while he self destructs

Christy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was thinking about that myself but I wouldn't be so sure. Turnout was ridiculously high this time around for both parties. So Trump has a huge number of supporters, more than last time around. Will the Democratic turnout stay as high next time?
On top of the we have a huge recession coming. People talking about Harris in 2024 make me laugh because in a 2-horse race in 2024 the Democrats are not going to get near 50%.
Depressed Dem turnout from a recession, huge Trump support and general protest votes because of the recession and I could easily see none of the 3 getting 270 in the electoral college.

One turnout drove the other I think. It is one of the most divided elections in memory. Allegations from both sides about dodgy dealings etc. Who wouldn't have an opinion one way or another at this point. We have to see what sort of candidate the GOP comes up with next time. A softer one might drive down the Dem turnout but also their turnout. Another Trump could drive up the Dems again.

Biden will also be the incumbent which helps and Republicans still need to find more votes. Leaning on the EC cos the can't get a majority will only nab them so many presidencies.

Water John

He has no legal strategy, just flailing. Every court they have approached they've lost.

Retr0gamer

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Donald Trump with the advantage of being the incumbent has managed to blow it during this election. The GOP will drop him like a hot snot. He won't be back. I expect he will probably leave the country to a country with no extradition to the states afterwards to avoid the up coming convictions. The GOP will be looking for someone else to bring them back into relevance.

If the next election is a 2-horse race the GOP will win whether Trump is the candidate or not. I mean seriously, if it hadn't been for Covid it's pretty clear Trump would've had this one in the bag. With the recession coming and the deficit ballooned before that happened the US is going to be a fiscal basket case and voters punish whoever's in power for that.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

murpho999 wrote: »

Trump may be a lot of things but hes not stupid.

He knew months ago that this election would be difficult.

Why do you think he claimed months ago that postal votes could be fraudulent?

Then as soon as things start slipping he has a legal strategy ready straight away.

Hmm not sure about the bit in bold, but what I said was meant as a bit of a joke, it doesn't really matter to me either way.

And I have been following this election for the past number of months and yes, the plan was obvious. No need for the patronising qs.

Foxtrol

murpho999 wrote: »

Trump may be a lot of things but hes not stupid.

He knew months ago that this election would be difficult.

Why do you think he claimed months ago that postal votes could be fraudulent?

Then as soon as things start slipping he has a legal strategy ready straight away.

I disagree. They gave away their plan to try to steal the election by refusing to accept the results and use the courts but never bothered to get a competent legal or PR team together and someone to head the battle, like Bush had in Florida. Reports that Kushner was calling people the night of the election. They are going to court but doing so with no evidence and being thrown out straight away in nearly every case.

Flagging their plan in advance also allowed the media time to plan how they'd react and they basically didn't repeat his speech on election night and aren't taking his supporters.

It might change but so far his attempts have been pathetic.

murpho999

Water John wrote: »

He has no legal strategy, just flailing. Every court they have approached they've lost.

He does have a strategy but it doesn't mean it's good or will work.

He has Rudy Guiliani heading up his legal team.

Mr.Nice Guy

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Donald Trump with the advantage of being the incumbent has managed to blow it during this election. The GOP will drop him like a hot snot. He won't be back. I expect he will probably leave the country to a country with no extradition to the states afterwards to avoid the up coming convictions. The GOP will be looking for someone else to bring them back into relevance.

I don't think they can afford to drop him. He has moulded the party in his image to such an extent that he will remain the most influential member even if he loses. Imagine for example if they went with someone that he doesn't like, and he spends the next few years tweeting that person is a disgrace, a loser etc. He could destroy their electoral prospects. He might even threaten to set up his own party and run against them. They will try to keep him on side I'm sure. Whether they can to his satisfaction is another matter.

jasonb

Georgia down to 9.5k and Pennsylvania down to 90k

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

everlast75 wrote: »

Looks to me like self preservation is kickin in for the GOP.

Trump is only useful while president. They need to distance themselves from him while he self destructs

But he will still have a massive, loyal following. Nearly 100% of the Rep candidates he endorsed won iirc. I think I remember reading that that was some sort of record? I never read too much into it so open to correction. EDIT: I should clarify in Rep candidates in Rep races.

Deleted User wrote: »

If the next election is a 2-horse race the GOP will win whether Trump is the candidate or not. I mean seriously, if it hadn't been for Covid it's pretty clear Trump would've had this one in the bag. With the recession coming and the deficit ballooned before that happened the US is going to be a fiscal basket case and voters punish whoever's in power for that.

I'd contend that Trump got a lot of votes from business owners voting in their own self-interest. I don't remember the numbers off-hand but iirc they weren't great (despite his own proclamations to the contrary) before covid. Covid just laid everything bare.

dark crystal

jasonb wrote: »

Georgia down to 9.5k and Pennsylvania down to 90k

They'd be the cherry on the cake, but once he has Arizona and Nevada, he doesn't even need them.

Mr.Nice Guy

Another late night might be required but worth it if Biden can get over the line.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324472459425402881

pixelburp

murpho999 wrote: »

Trump may be a lot of things but hes not stupid.

He knew months ago that this election would be difficult.

Why do you think he claimed months ago that postal votes could be fraudulent?

Then as soon as things start slipping he has a legal strategy ready straight away.

An idiot, that's debatable. But he's a blunt instrument, with all the subtly and nous that comes with that format. Idiocy is an adjacent quality. Trump failed to make money from a casino, so he's no business genius but his direct vulgarity has been effective in appealing to the disenfranchised - just not so much the follow through and detail.

murpho999

Foxtrol wrote: »

I disagree. They gave away their plan to try to steal the election by refusing to accept the results and use the courts but never bothered to get a competent legal or PR team together and someone to head the battle, like Bush had in Florida. Reports that Kushner was calling people the night of the election. They are going to court but doing so with no evidence and being thrown out straight away in nearly every case. It might change but so far it has been pathetic.

Of course they have no evidence as there simply is none. No good legal team can do anything about that.

But remember Trump not a normal person. He's narcissistic and megalomaniac. Sure he even said he wouldn't leave the White House if he lost.

Apparently it's Trump himself who's pushing his people to pursue legal avenues.
He'll fight anyway he can but he's running out of options.