US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

LuckyLloyd

~Rebel~ wrote: »

I think we're still expecting more from Nevada?

Georgia seem to be spitting out a few here and there throughout

Nothing more from Nevada today.

Georgia and Pennsylvania seem to want to keep going. Hopefully they won't break for the night...

letowski

I think Biden might hang on in AZ. It will be very close though, but I don't think Trump is winning by enough.

sdanseo

CNN mentioned approx. 15,000 votes left in GA.

With a gap of 2,500, that means Biden needs just under 60% of what's left.

But essentially guaranteed a recount and not sure how any later arriving incl. Military votes will affect that.

Water John

CNN are ET, 5 am to us.

BlitzKrieg

In terms of numbers with the current numbers in popular vote doesnt this mean both candidates are now the two most popular candidates ever to run?

Trump has actually beaten Obama in terms of popular vote now? Maybe that will finally soothe his ego since it was his obsession of being better then Obama that set all this off in the first place

Brussels Sprout

Nate Silver basically just called the election (read the first comment under his tweet):


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324534164826296323

murpho999

John King is seriously impressive.

His presentation and knowledge is fantastic.

Kermit.de.frog

Hannity on Fox now and it's hilarious. Scray and delusional but funny all the same.

letowski

If AZ breaks the way Maricopa County did for a finish (56.1%/42%) for the remaining 310k votes

Trump 173,910
Biden 130,200

So Trump would gain 43,710 but Biden leads by 46,257. So Biden would win by 2.5k.

But obviously they are all not coming from Maricopa. Some votes still have to come for Coconino County, a decent size county and more blue leaning than Maricopa. Some smaller red counties left too but not much.

I think Biden will hang on, only just.

~Rebel~

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

In terms of numbers with the current numbers in popular vote doesnt this mean both candidates are now the two most popular candidates ever to run?

Trump has actually beaten Obama in terms of popular vote now? Maybe that will finally soothe his ego since it was his obsession of being better then Obama that set all this off in the first place

Yup, at the end of his divisive 4 year term, it's the perfect example of just how polarising he is as a person.

Biden as a candidate is largely just a proxy for 'Not-Trump', so in a way Trump is personally driving the two highest voting campaigns in history - for, and against, himself.

Water John

letowski wrote: »

If AZ breaks the way Maricopa County did for a finish (56.1%/42%) for the remaining 310k votes

Trump 173,910
Biden 130,200

So Trump would gain 43,710 but Biden leads by 46,257. So Biden would win by 2.5k.

But obviously they are all not coming from Maricopa. Some votes still have to come for Coconino County, a decent size county and more blue leaning than Maricopa. Some smaller red counties left too but not much.

I think Biden will hang on, only just.

You mean they won't stay counting long enough for Trump.

sdanseo

sdanseo wrote: »

CNN mentioned approx. 15,000 votes left in GA.

With a gap of 2,500, that means Biden needs just under 60% of what's left.

But essentially guaranteed a recount and not sure how any later arriving incl. Military votes will affect that.

Surely then even a couple of thousand of late military votes will put it back in Trump's column?

letowski

Water John wrote: »

You mean they won't stay counting long enough for Trump.

Yeah I think he will run out of votes eventually. Unless Maricopa is seeing higher rates of 'late' early votes leaning more red. But I doubt it.

letowski

Deleted User wrote: »

Surely then even a couple of thousand of late military votes will put it back in Trump's column?

Hard to know, alot of people that join the military are from the black community, especially from the Savannah area. I don't think there would be enough to tilt it back.

letowski

It was a big call by Fox News, and I'd say they are sweating a bit now. But even if AZ says blue, its still doesn't change the fact that Fox News and AP called AZ too early.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324537699802513414

letowski

letowski wrote: »

If AZ breaks the way Maricopa County did for a finish (56.1%/42%) for the remaining 310k votes

Trump 173,910
Biden 130,200

So Trump would gain 43,710 but Biden leads by 46,257. So Biden would win by 2.5k.

But obviously they are all not coming from Maricopa. Some votes still have to come for Coconino County, a decent size county and more blue leaning than Maricopa. Some smaller red counties left too but not much.

I think Biden will hang on, only just.

There is actually just 280k votes left in AZ. Next drop is tomorrow afternoon.

Bed time I think!

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324539574190809088

Exclamation Marc

Trump lead in GA down to 1902 now.

Edit: GA not AZ

dark crystal

Trump and Biden now tied in Georgia.

Mr.Nice Guy

Looking good for Biden in Georgia.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324537543824723969

Saganist

letowski wrote: »

There is actually just 280k votes left in AZ. Next drop is tomorrow afternoon.

Bed time I think!

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1324539574190809088

Why did Fox call this so early ? It was one of their first calls.

signostic

With Georgia likely now to go to Biden, the best Trump can get is a draw?

Mr.Nice Guy

signostic wrote: »

With Georgia likely now to go to Biden, the best Trump can get is a draw?

Yeah, he can't get to 270 if Georgia goes blue.

Exclamation Marc

Trump 4129
Biden 10841

Monroe County PA

Lead now down to 42k

Water John

Strange it's Guy Fawkes night and Trump just blew up a powder keg in the WH.

Saganist

Saganist wrote: »

Why did Fox call this so early ? It was one of their first calls.

Most of the votes left to count were in a county which has 2/3 the population and is centred on Phoenix so Biden should be fine if most of the votes left to count are from there.

Canice Picklington

The new Trump song

Trump man, yes, it's time to step down
I said, Trump man, you've been beat to the ground
I said, Trump man, yeah your pants they look brown
You might need a new Trump nappy
Trump man, there's a place you can go
I said, Trump man, prison locked on your own
You can stay there, and I'm sure you will find
Many ways to have a good time

Don, Don, Don, Don, Don

It's fun to stay to watch Biden win PA
It's all because you lost, Biden PA
It's a beautiful thing for the world to enjoy
He got rid of you good ol' boys

Trump man, you killed Epstein somehow
I said Trump man, Russia can't save you now
I said Trump man, yeah your wife is a cow
Now for once the world is happy

Don, Don, Don, Don, Don

It's all because we see Biden win PA
It's what we're waiting for, Biden PA
He inflicted defeat, for the world to enjoy
He got rid of you and your boys

Brian?

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Trump 4129
Biden 10841

Monroe County PA

Lead now down to 35k (albeit CNN haven't amended distance so may have misapplied that myself). Either way, vote numbers are correct.

Showing 42k on NYT

Exclamation Marc

Brian? wrote: »

Showing 42k on NYT

Yeah I think I subtracted the 6k from 42 but the 42 reflected the 6k already taken. Whoops.

But that was more so fraud on CNNs part. I didn't see them make that calculation so it not valid.

Water John

Deleted User wrote: »

Most of the votes left to count were in a county which has 2/3 the population and is centred on Phoenix so Biden should be fine if most of the votes left to count are from there.

But in contrast to most because they are used to mail in ballots in fact GOP voters use it. They drop them off in boxes the day or two before the election. Fox may not have had the local knowledge.

banie01

Trump not wanting to count votes where he's losing but wanting to keep counting where he's winning is giving me serious headache!

Can we just call it his Tally-ban?