US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

paul71

elefant wrote: »

I'd say the Republican party are panicking big time that Trump's latest antics are going to sour sentiment in Georgia even further, and the two possible key run offs for Senate could end up going against them. They need to jump ship quickly.

I would not be confident that the presidential vote in Georgia would translate in a senate run off. There could be Republican voters who dislike Trump that will swing back, and secondly I have been hearing for 3 days that Americans like a split Government. I would to see it but I am not confident it will happen.

seamus

elefant wrote: »

I'd say the Republican party are panicking big time that Trump's latest antics are going to sour sentiment in Georgia even further, and the two possible key run offs for Senate could end up going against them. They need to jump ship quickly.

They will.

If PA flips today, then the GOP will abandon Trump. The senior figures will make statements to the press about respecting the democratic process and how they will keep working for the American people. They won't bankroll any of these ridiculous lawsuits, they won't demand recounts, they won't support Trump's claims of fraud or victory.

Trump will realise that everyone he has surrounded himself with are not loyal friends or supporters. They are merely sycophants and opportunists. Once Trump has lost, his power over them is gone. Some will hang around to continue leeching money from him, but the rest will hitch themselves to something else that isn't a sinking ship.

The long-proposed situation where Pence would take over and pardon Trump may not even come to pass. There's nothing in it for Pence. I'd say Pence absolutely hates Trump with a passion. I dislike Pence, but I imagine this "man of principle" thing is something core to him, and to have spent four years in the company of someone with zero principles has probably been killing him.

The GOP could even see this as an opportunity to throw Trump under the bus completely - get him and his family in federal court on all sorts of charges - to prevent the contagion continuing beyond January.

elefant

paul71 wrote: »

I would not be confident that the presidential vote in Georgia would translate in a senate run off. There could be Republican voters who dislike Trump that will swing back, and secondly I have been hearing for 3 days that Americans like a split Government. I would to see it but I am not confident it will happen.

Yeah, I agree. At the same time, who knows what Trump is going to come out with next- there's nothing to gain from being hitched to his madness any more, only damage.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

elefant wrote: »

I'd say the Republican party are panicking big time that Trump's latest antics are going to sour sentiment in Georgia even further, and the two possible key run offs for Senate could end up going against them. They need to jump ship quickly.

Based of what we've seen so far the opposite could just as likely be true. After what Santorum said yesterday I have yet to hear any prominent Reps denounce Donald Trump (I have been sleeping so maybe I missed something catching up this morning). Trump has also garnered the 2nd most votes in presidential election history, which shows he obviously has a very strong base. Couple that with the fact that both Trump Jr and Eric Trump have essentially been threatening to cut support to Reps that don't take their side on their conpiracy theory.

This is tearing the Republican party apart internally I've no doubt, but I would be shocked if the GOP came out and cut ties with the Trump family just yet. At the very least, they will probably wait until all the litigation and recounts have been completed. They're in a bit of a catch 22 situation here.

Quin_Dub

paul71 wrote: »

I would not be confident that the presidential vote in Georgia would translate in a senate run off. There could be Republican voters who dislike Trump that will swing back, and secondly I have been hearing for 3 days that Americans like a split Government. I would to see it but I am not confident it will happen.

I'd agree - Oddly enough , it's actually probably bad news for the Democrats that both seats are up.

I'd have fancied their chances in taking the Loeffler seat on it's own as she has gone a bit mad lately on the whole QAnon stuff etc.

But with voters coming out for both GOP candidates , it insulates her from that stuff a little as if you are a Perdue voter , you aren't going to split your vote and go for Warnock in the other race.

As it stands today , I think the GOP probably sneak both of those seats.

Brussels Sprout

What the hell! Went to bed last night just before 3 and it seemed like PA at least was only an hour or two away from going Blue and Georgia was down to just less than 2,000 vote lead for Trump. Was fulling expecting to wake up to see that Biden had been declared the winner. Can't believe PA is counting so slowly

paul71

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

What the hell! Went to bed last night just before 3 and it seemed like PA at least was only an hour or two away from going Blue and Georgia was down to just less than 2,000 vote lead for Trump. Was fulling expecting to wake up to see that Biden had been declared the winner. Can't believe PA is counting so slowly

Its the middle of the night there and they were counting for 14 hours yesterday, TBF the slowest counting states are actually New York and California, but nobody is paying any attention because they became unwinnable for Trump on first count.

donfers

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

What the hell! Went to bed last night just before 3 and it seemed like PA at least was only an hour or two away from going Blue and Georgia was down to just less than 2,000 vote lead for Trump. Was fulling expecting to wake up to see that Biden had been declared the winner. Can't believe PA is counting so slowly

Every vote is being checked by 59 people though

Kiith

Would love if Pennsylvania also flips before Trump wakes up and we get to see his Twitter meltdown.

Apparently there will be an update from them in the next hour or so.

Tired Gardener

Absolutely wonderful to see Georgia switch to favouring Biden.

From the start of this I had the creeping fear that ztrump would do it again. Looking at the results as they stand now, fills me with a reassuring hope... however even that is tinged with a small nuget of worry.

The fall out from this could be the spark that sets Trumps volatile supporters over the edge. The USA could see the dawning of the second civil war.

godtabh

at this stage when is it likely to be called officially?

Mellor

bennyl10 wrote: »

And it means trump can no longer win

No. If it finishes on 269 each (it won’t).
Trump could still win. It would go to the house which would be split 50/50 if they are followed the popular vote.

Nody

Big Pussy Bonpensiero wrote: »

Based of what we've seen so far the opposite could just as likely be true. After what Santorum said yesterday I have yet to hear any prominent Reps denounce Donald Trump (I have been sleeping so maybe I missed something catching up this morning). Trump has also garnered the 2nd most votes in presidential election history, which shows he obviously has a very strong base. Couple that with the fact that both Trump Jr and Eric Trump have essentially been threatening to cut support to Reps that don't take their side on their conpiracy theory.

This is tearing the Republican party apart internally I've no doubt, but I would be shocked if the GOP came out and cut ties with the Trump family just yet. At the very least, they will probably wait until all the litigation and recounts have been completed. They're in a bit of a catch 22 situation here.

Highly doubt they are tearing themselves apart; they will split in two factions let's call them Pence (traditional Reps ala Bush era) and Trump (populist say anything era) but both will unite when it comes to beating the Democrats.

Drumpot

Kiith wrote: »

Would love if Pennsylvania also flips before Trump wakes up and we get to see his Twitter meltdown.

Apparently there will be an update from them in the next hour or so.

This is just so enjoyable, possibly the most satisfying thing of 2020. I want to see Biden called president but equally the thought of this slow painful defeat that Trump has to suffer is making the delayed count sweet.

And the only reason it’s a slow painful defeat is because of Trump slowing down the process. This is glorious.

paul71

godtabh wrote: »

at this stage when is it likely to be called officially?

When the electoral college meets and votes. 14th December.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641

godtabh

paul71 wrote: »

When the electoral college meets and votes.

is there any indication of when that will be or will any legal challenges have to be finished first?

Is it a likely that it will be called for Biden today but Trump will still claim victory no matter what?

seamus

godtabh wrote: »

at this stage when is it likely to be called officially?

Officially, officially will be a week or two. There's a whole process after the count is finished that the state legislatures certify the final count and declare a winner.

It's typically accepted by the parties and the media as a done deal when one of the candidates concedes. Trump probably won't concede, but everyone will just ignore that.

Quin_Dub

paul71 wrote: »

When the electoral college meets and votes. 14th December.

They don't actually until early January , but the States have to submit their results and be ratified by early December - The 8th I think.

That's the deadline for all of this crap - Counts , Recounts , Lawsuits etc. all have to be done and dusted by then.

The Raging Bile Duct

Nody wrote: »

Highly doubt they are tearing themselves apart; they will split in two factions let's call them Pence (traditional Reps ala Bush era) and Trump (populist say anything era) but both will unite when it comes to beating the Democrats.

Pence is not a traditional Rep either, he came from the Tea Party Caucus.

Shelga

I'm worried that military and cured ballots yet to be counted in Georgia will hand the lead back to Trump. I know he's probably not as popular with troops as other Republican presidents, but it's going to be so tight no?

What if we all get so excited about Biden leading Georgia, and then in a few days military ballots erase that lead

Mellor

godtabh wrote: »

at this stage when is it likely to be called officially?

Officially, not until electors actually pledge their vote in December.

paul71

Quin_Dub wrote: »

They don't actually until early January , but the States have to submit their results and be ratified by early December - The 8th I think.

That's the deadline for all of this crap - Counts , Recounts , Lawsuits etc. all have to be done and dusted by then.

Sorry Quin, I did a ninja edit with a link

Tchaikovsky

Trump's twitter page has more warnings than a crate of cigarettes.

circadian

Had a quick look at the recount rules for the remaining states. The best one I seen was for Nevada. You can call a recount no matter the margin, but you have to put down a deposit for the cost of the recount. If you lose the recount then you have to pay for it in full.

Not a chance Trump would pay for it, he might try to do it without paying, but not a chance he'll actually pay if he went for a recount there.

Christy42

seamus wrote: »

Officially, officially will be a week or two. There's a whole process after the count is finished that the state legislatures certify the final count and declare a winner.

It's typically accepted by the parties and the media as a done deal when one of the candidates concedes. Trump probably won't concede, but everyone will just ignore that.

Wonder if some of the party honchos will shuffle Pence out to concede at some point. Course that would be the ultimate humiliation because everyone would know it was because Trump was having a hissy fit.

The Raging Bile Duct

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

Trump's twitter page has more warnings than a crate of cigarettes.

That is a brilliant line.

harr

CNN now saying Biden could take Pennsylvania by up to 100,000 votes if current trends continue. Trump up by just over 18,000 currently.

paul71

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

That is a brilliant line.

Almost as good as your user name.

Patser

paul71 wrote: »

When the electoral college meets and votes. 14th December.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11641

Is there any chance Trump could try hold out til then, and try something mad to engineer Faithless electors? Obviously if Georgia stays blue, and PA flips as expected it's impossible. But if it was to stay Biden around 270, Trump in 260s could he try something mad and hold out til then, make the Electoral college actually vote him out

8-10

Mellor wrote: »

No. If it finishes on 269 each (it won’t).
Trump could still win. It would go to the house which would be split 50/50 if they are followed the popular vote.

Republicans nearly certainly get the vote in that scenario of 269 tie, don't think the Dems have a chance. The Senate however might also be undecided and they vote the VP in a tie. But that would also likely end up Republican.

Spare a thought for a scenario where Republican house votes in Trump and a Democratic Senate picks a Biden/Warren/Obama/Harris as his VP for the craic