US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

circadian wrote: »

Had a quick look at the recount rules for the remaining states. The best one I seen was for Nevada. You can call a recount no matter the margin, but you have to put down a deposit for the cost of the recount. If you lose the recount then you have to pay for it in full.

Not a chance Trump would pay for it, he might try to do it without paying, but not a chance he'll actually pay if he went for a recount there.

Yeah..He bailed on the Wisconsin recount once the gap moved to a margin that meant it would have cost him $3M.

He doesn't have the money for all this.

8-10

harr wrote: »

CNN now saying Biden could take Pennsylvania by up to 100,000 votes if current trends continue. Trump up by just over 18,000 currently.

In fairness that was projected to be the case yesterday. Everything is actually playing out as expected with the mail in ballots.

paul71

Patser wrote: »

Is there any chance Trump could try hold out til then, and try something mad to engineer Faithless electors? Obviously if Georgia stays blue, and PA flips as expected it's impossible. But if it was to stay Biden around 270, Trump in 260s could he try something mad and hold out til then, make the Electoral college actually vote him out

I honestly don't know. I am pretty certain he will try but I cannot see any elector going against a state vote.

Water John

Trump said last night that the vote was fraudalent in the 3 rust belt states. What he's looking for is, the vote of the people be set aside and the the State legislature nominate the electors.

KAC and Chris Christie and Pence pushed back and said count the votes.

seamus

Shelga wrote: »

I'm worried that military and cured ballots yet to be counted in Georgia will hand the lead back to Trump. I know he's probably not as popular with troops as other Republican presidents, but it's going to be so tight no?

What if we all get so excited about Biden leading Georgia, and then in a few days military ballots erase that lead

One article I found said that there were 5,200 military ballot in Georgia in 2016.

So based on that, and Biden's current 900-vote lead, Trump would need to take about 60% of the military vote. 60% is about the amount of support Republicans have in the military, but Trump's popularity specifically has taken a nosedive over the last two years.

It should also be remembered that Biden's support of the military is strong and the family name is strong in the military through his son. So he would be expected to pick up more military votes than someone like Clinton.

breezy1985

seamus wrote: »

One article I found said that there were 5,200 military ballot in Georgia in 2016.

So based on that, and Biden's current 900-vote lead, Trump would need to take about 60% of the military vote. 60% is about the amount of support Republicans have in the military, but Trump's popularity specifically has taken a nosedive over the last two years.

It should also be remembered that Biden's support of the military is strong and the family name is strong in the military through his son. So he would be expected to pick up more military votes than someone like Clinton.

Would be ironic if it was the army who stopped Trump

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Nody wrote: »

Highly doubt they are tearing themselves apart; they will split in two factions let's call them Pence (traditional Reps ala Bush era) and Trump (populist say anything era) but both will unite when it comes to beating the Democrats.

But the point is that the latter won't want to put up with the former, and people that vote for the traditional Reps will become disenfranchised by their blatant corruption. It's coming to a head now for the Republican Party and difficult decisions lie ahead.

paul71

seamus wrote: »

One article I found said that there were 5,200 military ballot in Georgia in 2016.

So based on that, and Biden's current 900-vote lead, Trump would need to take about 60% of the military vote. 60% is about the amount of support Republicans have in the military, but Trump's popularity specifically has taken a nosedive over the last two years.

It should also be remembered that Biden's support of the military is strong and the family name is strong in the military through his son. So he would be expected to pick up more military votes than someone like Clinton.

Yes, Spur heel vs Beau Biden.

seamus

Patser wrote: »

Is there any chance Trump could try hold out til then, and try something mad to engineer Faithless electors? Obviously if Georgia stays blue, and PA flips as expected it's impossible. But if it was to stay Biden around 270, Trump in 260s could he try something mad and hold out til then, make the Electoral college actually vote him out

He could, but virtually all of the states he would need to do this, have laws that prevent that from happening.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Will Biden have his winning speech tonight?

Patser

seamus wrote: »

He could, but virtually all of the states he would need to do this, have laws that prevent that from happening.

I just can't see him conceding, he's gone too far on the fraud allegations front. So I can see escalating legal challenges right up the Electoral College meeting, and that's 6/7 weeks away. And that allows Trump time for all sorts of craziness.

Mellor

8-10 wrote: »

Republicans nearly certainly get the vote in that scenario of 269 tie, don't think the Dems have a chance. The Senate however might also be undecided and they vote the VP in a tie. But that would also likely end up Republican.

Spare a thought for a scenario where Republican house votes in Trump and a Democratic Senate picks a Biden/Warren/Obama/Harris as his VP for the craic

Not sure why you think Dems wouldn’t have a chance in house.

Reps control the senate. And they have to choose from running VPs. So Biden, Obama not eligible.

VinLieger

MattS1 wrote: »

Will Biden have his winning speech tonight?

Only if he conclusively wins PA, if he still only has Georgia its too close to call yet

Mellor

seamus wrote: »

He could, but virtually all of the states he would need to do this, have laws that prevent that from happening.

All the states???
If it’s a 268-270 split. He only needs 1 faithless elector to steal it. Plenty of states where that’s possible. There were 7 in 2016

paul71

Patser wrote: »

I just can't see him conceding, he's gone too far on the fraud allegations front. So I can see escalating legal challenges right up the Electoral College meeting, and that's 6/7 weeks away. And that allows Trump time for all sorts of craziness.

I am counting on it, it will be lovely to watch him futilely banging his head against a legal wall and throwing childish tantrums.

everlast75

He reminds me of a villain in a movie who you think is finished.

He has to be, but then he rears his head again.

It ain't over until you see the body... figuratively speaking of course.

That's how I feel right now...

EltonJohn69

How are people shocked/surprised by what Trump said last night ??? He was saying the exact same thing about the 2016 results, he said Clinton didn’t win the popular vote, that they were all fake votes

fiveleavesleft

everlast75 wrote: »

He reminds me of a villain in a movie who you think is finished.

He has to be, but then he rears his head again.

It ain't over until you see the body... figuratively speaking of course.

That's how I feel right now...

He could be a Michael Myers though.:D

peteeeed

i think at this stage kim jong un is saying 'that guy is crazy '

prawnsambo

EltonJohn69 wrote: »

How are people shocked/surprised by what Trump said last night ??? He was saying the exact same thing about the 2016 results, he said Clinton didn’t win the popular vote, that they were all fake votes

Yeah. He's been trying to undermine the voting systems since the start. There was no reason to believe that he'd stop now. Especially when he's losing. It was the 'strategy' he had in place before the 2016 election when he thought he was going to lose. And of course the popular vote loss really rankled with him.

All_in_Flynn

Looks like the hammer is going to fall today for Trump.

That presser last night will go down in history. Surreal stuff. I couldn't believe what I was watching.

Can you imagine how Trump is feeling this morning!? He is the most powerful man on the planet and its all about to be taken away from him. He is not used to this feeling and I'd say he is hurting badly. Warms the cockles frankly.

I posted here before the election to say it was clear that Trump and his team were stacking the deck. They were always going cry foul. I'm just taken aback at how far they are going with it.

I think though, once Pennsylvania is flipped and beyond doubt then there is no escape for him even through the courts.

Today looks like it will be a good day.

dogbert27

circadian wrote: »

Had a quick look at the recount rules for the remaining states. The best one I seen was for Nevada. You can call a recount no matter the margin, but you have to put down a deposit for the cost of the recount. If you lose the recount then you have to pay for it in full.

Not a chance Trump would pay for it, he might try to do it without paying, but not a chance he'll actually pay if he went for a recount there.

He'd pay for it with tax payer money the same way he's charged the tax payer for his use of his own hotel.

prawnsambo

All_in_Flynn wrote: »

Looks like the hammer is going to fall today for Trump.

That presser last night will go down in history. Surreal stuff. I couldn't believe what I was watching.

Can you imagine how Trump is feeling this morning!? He is the most powerful man on the planet and its all about to be taken away from him. He is not used to this feeling and I'd say he is hurting badly. Warms the cockles frankly.

I posted here before the election to say it was clear that Trump and his team were stacking the deck. They were always going cry foul. I'm just taken aback at how far they are going with it.

I think though, once Pennsylvania is flipped and beyond doubt then there is no escape for him even through the courts.

Today looks like it will be a good day.

He has other motivations too. There are a raft of criminal and civil cases lined up for him to face once he's out of the security of the Oval office.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

It's a matter of hours before PA is called for Biden, and that will put the final nail in Trump's coffin.

jasonb

Well, I wish they'd get a move on in PA, the vote numbers there haven't changed since 6:30am.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please don't just paste tweets here. Post deleted.

seamus

Mellor wrote: »

All the states???
If it’s a 268-270 split. He only needs 1 faithless elector to steal it. Plenty of states where that’s possible. There were 7 in 2016

A 268/270 split at this stage would need AZ, PA & GA to go Trump's way.

That would leave Nevada as the faithless elector to target. It's not possible in Nevada.

His only hope really would be that he keeps PA *and* gets NV and AZ back on his side. Then he could get faithless electors in GA to flip.

As it stands, if it's a 268/270 split where Trum has PA & GA, there are no practical states where a faithless elector would/can support him. The only other blue states it's legal are deep blue states like NY or IL.

Unless there are some major odd shifts in states such as PA & GA going to Biden and NV & AZ going to Trump, the faithless electors thing is a non-runner.

Graham

Mellor wrote: »

All the states???
If it’s a 268-270 split. He only needs 1 faithless elector to steal it. Plenty of states where that’s possible. There were 7 in 2016

Haven't many states since legislated to prevent that happening again?

L1011

seamus wrote: »

That would leave Nevada as the faithless elector to target. It's not possible in Nevada.

A faithless elector could come from anywhere.

But most states now have significant penalties for them, and the Supreme Court has already upheld the states right to do so.

Retr0gamer

Would love as Trump leaves the White House in January that the FBI and IRS pick him up and throw him in a paddywagon before he gets to his motrocade. Would be a delicious cherry on top.