US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

paul71 wrote: »

Once his numbers in PN go past about 10k no recount will make a difference so I bet he will announce then.

I don't think Biden will announce anything for a good while yet.

Him claiming victory would only be grist to the Trump mill. He be screaming "See.. Told you they are stealing it!!!"

Just keep saying - "America will decide and I'm confident that I will win."

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Putin posts deleted. Please keep this thread focused on the election.

paul71

Quin_Dub wrote: »

I don't think Biden will announce anything for a good while yet.

Him claiming victory would only be grist to the Trump mill. He be screaming "See.. Told you they are stealing it!!!"

Just keep saying - "America will decide and I'm confident that I will win."

Perhaps, but he is certainly not going to announce based on 1,000 votes in Georgia, it will based on Pennslyvania.

Which is apt, as its his home state.

Francie Barrett

In any ordinary election, the loser would have called the winner by now and conceded. It's clear that Trump is not going to concede, so Biden is in the predicament where he probably has to wait until it's mathematically impossible for Trump to win.

Manic Moran

Going back to the two Georgia senate seats, I don't see them flipping for two reaosns.
1) You no longer have the "anti-Trump" incentive to get folks to the polls in the first place, and 2) If you look at how the extra votes split out, the two Republican candidates between them got over 55% of one election, and the Libertarian was the spoiler with over 2% of the other election, they are unlikely to vote Democrat.

Mr.Nice Guy

Latest figures are in for Maricopa County, AZ:

972,570 - Biden
912,115 - Trump.

letowski

Great batch for Biden, he only lost by 4k in that last batch in Maricopa.

He will take AZ.

breezy1985

letowski wrote: »

Great batch for Biden, he only lost by 4k in that last batch in Maricopa.

He will take AZ.

Surely the last few sites will call it soon

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Manic Moran wrote: »

Going back to the two Georgia senate seats, I don't see them flipping for two reaosns.
1) You no longer have the "anti-Trump" incentive to get folks to the polls in the first place, and 2) If you look at how the extra votes split out, the two Republican candidates between them got over 55% of one election, and the Libertarian was the spoiler with over 2% of the other election, they are unlikely to vote Democrat.

Plenty of Republican controversy upcoming. We'll see sure. Not really the thread for this anyway.

Quin_Dub

Manic Moran wrote: »

Going back to the two Georgia senate seats, I don't see them flipping for two reaosns.
1) You no longer have the "anti-Trump" incentive to get folks to the polls in the first place, and 2) If you look at how the extra votes split out, the two Republican candidates between them got over 55% of one election, and the Libertarian was the spoiler with over 2% of the other election, they are unlikely to vote Democrat.

Agreed - They might have had a shot at picking off Loeffler in isolation but with both seats up for grabs along with control of the Senate , I just can't see it.

Mellor

salmocab wrote: »

Well that doesn’t allow for the fact that the closer to the poles you get the more distorted the size of land is on flat screens or paper. It’s not that big nor are places like Greenland as big as we think.

Of course it allows for the distortion, it's superimposing area on another part of the globe.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1324743941271506945

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324745370723901442


Fox will be feeling more relieved now. Trump must feel like a frog getting slowly boiled.

Brussels Sprout

Finally went back and read this thread from around 3am onwards on election night. All I'll say is that a lot of those posters haven't been heard of since in this thread.

OneColdHand

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Trump must feel like a frog getting slowly boiled.

On one hand if he was blown away by Biden, that would have been great.

But on the other hand, the slow death by a thousand paper cuts is great too!

Brian?

OneColdHand wrote: »

On one hand if he was blown away by Biden, that would have been great.

But on the other hand, the slow death by a thousand paper cuts is great too!

If Biden gets 306, it’s a blowout

Manic Moran

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Finally went back and read this thread from around 3am onwards on election night. All I'll say is that a lot of those posters haven't been heard of since in this thread.

I believe a bunch were threadbanned, if not sitebanned.

TomOnBoard

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Finally went back and read this thread from around 3am onwards on election night. All I'll say is that a lot of those posters haven't been heard of since in this thread.

There's a large element of seagulls at a landfill at times of great moment in discussion forums: lots of shrieking and squaking coupled with lots of ****ting then flying away to await the next pounce....

Manic Moran

Brian? wrote: »

If Biden gets 306, it’s a blowout

This is a blowout.

Brussels Sprout

Manic Moran wrote: »

Going back to the two Georgia senate seats, I don't see them flipping for two reaosns.
1) You no longer have the "anti-Trump" incentive to get folks to the polls in the first place, and 2) If you look at how the extra votes split out, the two Republican candidates between them got over 55% of one election, and the Libertarian was the spoiler with over 2% of the other election, they are unlikely to vote Democrat.

That's quite a bit off.

Loeffler got 26% and Collins got 20%. There were a few other Republicans in the race as well who got a combined 3.4%.

Total Republican vote was therefore: 49.4% which tallies with the 49.8% that Perdue got in the other race.


I agree with your point about getting the vote out. I suspect that the Republicans have an advantage there but the state is about to be saturated with attention and Get Out the Vote campaigns for the next 2 months. Biden and his surrogates need to go and basically live down there. It'll be a tall order but at least they have a path.

Infini

Manic Moran wrote: »

This is a blowout.

Its a bit misleading, yeah its a complete blowout EC wise but the voter numbers that year are roughly 60/40 for Regan.

MJohnston

Manic Moran wrote: »

This is a blowout.

No you see Trump himself described 306 as a landslide back in 2016, when he got that number of EVs.

Canice Picklington

I think there's a reasonable chance that the carry on of Trump and the Republicans over the next two months will be so despicable that it will drive down Republican turnout in the Georgia run-offs and drive up Democrat turnout.

It's a huge breakthrough for the Democrats to win Georgia (seemingly) and they'll be on the crest of a wave of confidence.

Brian?

Manic Moran wrote: »

This is a blowout.

That was. So was 2016 though

jasonb

Looks like Biden has increased his lead in NV, PA and GA. AZ is stil around the 43k mark.

Exclamation Marc

Manic Moran wrote: »

This is a blowout.

That was pretty brutal but shockingly not even the worst.

In 1936, Alf Landon picked up only 8 electoral votes in Maine and Vermont at the very north eastern tip of the country.

ancapailldorcha

Cut out the petty sniping please.

Exclamation Marc

jasonb wrote: »

Looks like Biden has increased his lead in NV, PA and GA. AZ is stil around the 43k mark.

CNN predicting that Democrat Mark Kelly wins GOP-held Arizona Senate seat so another AZ victory if comes to pass.

An Ciarraioch

jasonb wrote: »

Looks like Biden has increased his lead in NV, PA and GA. AZ is stil around the 43k mark.

And moreover, not only down to 240k AZ votes remaining, but Trump's block trend % has been steadily falling today:

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Jo jo the eskimo

Should've been called hours ago but i suppose its only right to be sensitive to the trump supporters who have lost the election. Over time they will slowly begin to accept their loss and then there won't be the need for such political correctness.

MJohnston

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

CNN predicting that Democrat Mark Kelly wins GOP-held Arizona Senate seat so another AZ victory if comes to pass.

Husband of former Arizona Rep Gabby Giffords who was shot in 2011 too. And of course an astronaut (3rd astronaut in the Senate!)