US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

BonnieSituation

breezy1985 wrote: »

What happens if he physically refuses to leave the White House. At what stage in the tantrum do the security just pick him up and drag him out by the arms and legs

11:59 on January 20th, 2021

Biden is the boss from 12:00. The Secret Service are loyal to the office, not to the person.

hirondelle

BonnieSituation wrote: »

While I am having some withdrawals, I have to say the CNN coverage including John King and his Magic Wall was imperious. Myself and it seems most of Ireland was glued to it. How they handled the klaxons to call the race was great.

I love elections and draws and the like so I was in heaven this week. Well, heaven after the hell of Wednesday morning.

---

The cathartic release from Don Lemon, Anderson Cooper and Jake Tapper was a sight to behold.

This.
I find CNN can go over the top on some issues, but this last while has been fascinating from watching it via CNN (in the main). The very human responses from them as the week ran this way and that, and the overwhelming sense of relief near (the not concluded) end has been brilliant.

John King in particular was excellent- just never lost his focus. As an aside, I read himself and Dana Basch were married up until a couple of years ago.

Quin_Dub

Manic Moran wrote: »

It's getting one. The Congressional respresentation (and thus electoral college votes) get redone after every census, which is every ten years.

It's been theorised for a while that with the emigration from California that it will lost one Congressional seat and thus one EC vote, from 55 to 54. It seems now that this is, indeed, likely.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/01/03/california-lose-congressional-seat-reapportionment-2020-census/

California is likely to lose a congressional seat for the first time in history after this year’s Census, with the state’s slowing growth rate trimming its political clout, according to an analysis of new population data released this week.

The projected drop from 53 to 52 seats in the House of Representatives will lead to a reshuffling of the state’s political map, and potentially divisive congressional races between incumbents in 2022. It will also shape presidential politics, as California loses one of its votes in the electoral college and other states like Texas are expected to gain as many as three new seats.



The State has already been won. Since the States are voting for their President, it doesn't matter how much excess there was or was not. There is an argument for a splitting of a state's vote like Maine and Nebraska, but the chances of the big States doing this are negligible. It's just not in the interest of the dominant party of the State.



This is all true, but the President has always been tasked with foreign relations, it's not a new concept. It's about the only tasking specifically called out in the Constitution, and until under a century ago, the only significant Federal expenditure was defence (Which at the time was heavily oriented around protecting foreign commerce). I'm not sure he has much more of a direct relationship with the public, though: Most of my daily issues are still regulated by the State, not Congress, and there are still plenty of folks in 'conservative' states who don't want the President to get involved with the domestic public, the folks who know off the top of their head what the Tenth Amendment says. If Californians want mandatory healthcare, to ban guns, or whatever, a Wyomingite will tell them to go do whatever they want, they don't care. They will not like, however, Californians telling Wyomingites what's good for them and how to live their lives, which is a significant reason why they will be adamant about not reducing their leverage in Presidential elections.

Which is why Trump et al fought so hard on the Census both to get their immigration status question included and to get it closed early ( or at least to not allow for extra time due to Covid).

robinph

breezy1985 wrote: »

What happens if he physically refuses to leave the White House. At what stage in the tantrum do the security just pick him up and drag him out by the arms and legs

They turn off the electricity and carry on with running the country elsewhere. Although it's unlikely they will turn off the electric as that would be unfair on the secret service people who are still stuck with throwing themselves infront of bullets aimed at him, they shouldn't have to suffer a cold house.

The White House isn't needed to run the country though. They would just ignore him and get on with life.

BonnieSituation

spacecoyote wrote: »

I still reckon a proportionally represented electoral college would be the best compromise in the US.

It would force both parties to look at pick ups of votes in all states as they could take a chunk of electoral college votes and removes the issue of winner takes all over a single vote margin

That's just adding a needless extra ;layer.

The small state already have their over-weighted representation in the senate and as such they have an over-weighted sector of the EC.

Just go to a popular vote and be damned.

They always talk about treh flyover states being ignored but as it stands, it's only right that Wyoming and Iowa and the Dakotas get less attentions to Cali and NY and Texas.

As someone on Twitter said on Wednesday, "Yet again the 55million people on the West coast don't matter in the Presidential election." That is insane!

It reminds me of the GAA listening to peoples' complaints about the provincial championships, only to go ahead and adjust the provinces. Completely ignoring that the fact that there are provincial competitions at all is the problem.

The EC is the problem. Just get rid, and be done with it. tinkering around the edges is pointless.

BonnieSituation

Gbear wrote: »

It's far too early to be trying to peddle one narrative or another about who voted and why.

Not only are there likely to be a broad set of reasons why people voted the way they did, it won't necessarily be consistent from state to state.

The obvious example is Miami Dade, which has nominally Democrat-favouring demographics, but lost the state for Biden.
As well as the Cuban American problem, it's also not clear how Latin Americans feel about things like Black Lives Matter.
They are, I think, more Christian (usually Catholic, I assume), and more generally conservative than the population as a whole.

With many, mostly male minorities voting for Trump, while Biden appears to have improved his vote share with white people, it could be that the traditional understanding of demographic splits has to shift. Until that analysis is done, it would be a mistake to hold to strongly onto opinions about the electorate.

There's lots of ways you could lay out a flexibile, rationally determined electoral college vote system.

If it was just something like 1 vote per 500k population + 2, you'd end up with:

California

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55 -> 81
Texas

---

38 -> 60
Illinois

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20 -> 27
Massachusetts -- 11 -> 15
Nevada

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6 -> 8
Wyoming

---

3 -> 3

That'd mean that California would go from having only about 18 times the electoral votes with about 80 times the population, to 27 times the electoral votes as Wyoming.

You could skew it further towards the smaller states if you made it +3 (California would still have 20 times the electoral votes).

It would still heavily favour the smaller states, but at least if they established a system like that, it would maintain an appropriate weighting as populations continue to change.

The EC votes are calculated as it stands on the House and Senate delegations except for DC who just get the amount of EC votes it would have if it was a state but no more then the lowest state (Wyoming). this just happens to work out as 3 anyway.

pixelburp

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/09/donald-trump-refusal-to-concede-transition-sabotage-fears-joe-biden

Trump's admin refusing to sign off on the budget and access usually given to the transition team. What a thundering child masquerading as an apparent adult. So while I doubt Trump will be escorted from the White House, he looks likely to resist every procedural norm going.

Carfacemandog

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's just adding a needless extra ;layer.

The small state already have their over-weighted representation in the senate and as such they have an over-weighted sector of the EC.

Just go to a popular vote and be damned.

They always talk about treh flyover states being ignored but as it stands, it's only right that Wyoming and Iowa and the Dakotas get less attentions to Cali and NY and Texas.

As someone on Twitter said on Wednesday, "Yet again the 55million people on the West coast don't matter in the Presidential election." That is insane!

It reminds me of the GAA listening to peoples' complaints about the provincial championships, only to go ahead and adjust the provinces. Completely ignoring that the fact that there are provincial competitions at all is the problem.

The EC is the problem. Just get rid, and be done with it. tinkering around the edges is pointless.

I agree the EC is just fundamentally broken, but inthe situation spacecoyote was talking about the election would likely have been long over before the close called ones we got a few days later, as Biden's popular vote win would (almost!) make that mean winning the EC as a whole.

Quin_Dub

breezy1985 wrote: »

What happens if he physically refuses to leave the White House. At what stage in the tantrum do the security just pick him up and drag him out by the arms and legs

To be honest , who cares.

The problem is more immediate than that - By refusing to concede or allow his administration to begin the work of transition denying the Biden team access to Office space and funding etc.

Also I don't think he'll even be there.

Michael Cohen reckons that Trump will go to Mar-a-Lago at Christmas and just never come back.

That sounds a far more plausible scenario to me than him holing up in the WH.

hirondelle

pixelburp wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/09/donald-trump-refusal-to-concede-transition-sabotage-fears-joe-biden

Trump's admin refusing to sign off on the budget and access usually given to the transition team. What a thundering child masquerading as an apparent adult. So while I doubt Trump will be escorted from the White House, he looks likely to resist every procedural norm going.

I fear this is just the start of it. I don't think there is an earthly chance of Trump appearing at Inauguration Day, but I do see him turning up at rallies to allow him to pretend he is still the God King- and who knows where things will go if that starts happening?

robinph

The only thing that might get trump to turn up to the inauguration is that it's likely to be just a handful of people wearing masks in the lobby of the Capitol building with no public access. Trump can then claim to have had a bigger crowd that Biden to turn up. Don't think he could handle being stood in a room next to Obama, Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and Bush Jr who is being respectful and ex-presidential though.

Very unlikely to actually be massed crowds turning up on The Mall for the day, even the normal drive between the White House to the inauguration and back again will have to be done some other way to avoid crowds forming along the street, my guess would be helicopters each way.

Quin_Dub

hirondelle wrote: »

I fear this is just the start of it. I don't think there is an earthly chance of Trump appearing at Inauguration Day, but I do see him turning up at rallies to allow him to pretend he is still the God King- and who knows where things will go if that starts happening?

robinph wrote: »

The only thing that might get trump to turn up to the inauguration is that it's likely to be just a handful of people wearing masks in the lobby of the Capitol building with no public access. Trump can then claim to have had a bigger crowd that Biden to turn up. Don't think he could handle being stood in a room next to Obama, Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and Bush Jr who is being respectful and ex-presidential though.

Very unlikely to actually be massed crowds turning up on The Mall for the day, even the normal drive between the White House to the inauguration and back again will have to be done some other way to avoid crowds forming along the street, my guess would be helicopters each way.

What odds would you get for Trump holding a rally on the same day as the Inauguration?

The Biden even will definitely be a much reduced affair in keeping with the approach on Social Distance etc.

BonnieSituation

Carfacemandog wrote: »

I agree the EC is just fundamentally broken, but inthe situation spacecoyote was talking about the election would likely have been long over before the close called ones we got a few days later, as Biden's popular vote win would (almost!) make that mean winning the EC as a whole.

As it should be.

People vote, not land. The house and senate take account of the peculiarities of the country and its federal system.

everlast75

This is Biden's response to the vaccine.

No one can, with any credibility, see the difference between Trump's incompetence and this.

Night and ****ing day.

https://twitter.com/Transition46/status/1325816759690129412?s=09

Brussels Sprout

hirondelle wrote: »

I fear this is just the start of it. I don't think there is an earthly chance of Trump appearing at Inauguration Day, but I do see him turning up at rallies to allow him to pretend he is still the God King- and who knows where things will go if that starts happening?

I think he will certainly keep up the rallies. For him they have been the best thing about the last 5 years. That environment, where all of the attention is on him and it's nothing but pure adulation, is what he really wants at all times.

That begs the question - how will he pay for them? He's certainly not going to pay for them himself and I can't see him charging an entry fee either.

I therefore think that in order to continue to run them he will need to create a "Donald Trump for President 2024" campaign and start soliciting donations from his supporters in order to pick up the tab.

everlast75

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I think he will certainly keep up the rallies. For him they have been the best thing about the last 5 years. That environment, where all of the attention is on him and it's nothing but pure adulation, is what he really wants at all times.

That begs the question - how will he pay for them? He's certainly not going to pay for them himself and I can't see him charging an entry fee either.

I therefore think that in order to continue to run them he will need to create a "Donald Trump for President 2024" campaign and start soliciting donations from his supporters in order to pick up the tab.

If the networks decide not to pay him any attention, it'll quickly solve the problem.

hirondelle

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I think he will certainly keep up the rallies. For him they have been the best thing about the last 5 years. That environment, where all of the attention is on him and it's nothing but pure adulation, is what he really wants at all times.

That begs the question - how will he pay for them? He's certainly not going to pay for them himself and I can't see him charging an entry fee either.

I therefore think that in order to continue to run them he will need to create a "Donald Trump for President 2024" campaign and start soliciting donations from his supporters in order to pick up the tab.

Judging by the slobbering devotion some of the attendees at the rallies show, I'd say Trump would have no problem relieving them of a few dollars at the gate.
Eric could be flogging the MAGA hats at the side of the stage. Ivanka and Kushner checking the monster trucks in the carpark in a case any of them are left unlocked. Don Jr is round the back just doing speedballs and checking his ammunition again.

Inquitus

Interesting, below are the odds available on the 2024 Presidential election, Trump is the favourite to get the GOP Nomination at this point, if he decides to run again it is hard to see how the Republican's can avoid it, which is troublesome for them. I would imagine that the mainstream of the party would like to be done with Trumpism for good.

Unfortunately for them it is hard to see his MAGA followers ditching him, and if they tried to screw Trump out of the nomination he could do anything, including run as a 3rd Party candidate which would be dreadful for the GOP, splitting their vote and leaving them with no chance:

BonnieSituation

I hope he runs as a 3rd party candidate.

There is no way he gets the GOP nomination.

listermint

Inquitus wrote: »

Interesting, below are the odds available on the 2024 Presidential election, Trump is the favourite to get the GOP Nomination at this point, if he decides to run again it is hard to see how the Republican's can avoid it, which is troublesome for them. I would imagine that the mainstream of the party would like to be done with Trumpism for good.

Unfortunately for them it is hard to see his MAGA followers ditching him, and if they tried to screw Trump out of the nomination he could do anything, including run as a 3rd Party candidate which would be dreadful for the GOP, splitting their vote and leaving them with no chance:

I'd imagine they'll be all in on assisting legal battles to get trump out of the picture.

Quin_Dub

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I hope he runs as a 3rd party candidate.

There is no way he gets the GOP nomination.

I don't think that there's any certainty to that at all.

Clearly there's a lot of road between now and then and depending on the outcomes of the likely multitude of court cases he may not be able to run.

But - given the nature of the GOP Primaries there's absolutely nothing to suggest that he couldn't win there again.

I don't think he would win a Presidential Election again , but all else being equal he's in the mix for the GOP Primaries for certain.

If he's willing and able to run in 4 years he is a huge problem for the GOP win or lose.

serfboard

hirondelle wrote: »

Judging by the slobbering devotion some of the attendees at the rallies show, I'd say Trump would have no problem relieving them of a few dollars at the gate.

100% agree. Look at all the (Chinese-made) merch he pitches at them and they lap it up.

If I were the venue owners though, I'd want payment in advance, given the Trump syndicate's track record for bilking suppliers.

And as for coverage, well Trump TV is being talked about again. A station devoted to Trump 24/7? I mean, it'd be better than talking about anything else, right?

Donald Trump wrote:

Turn on television, right. Covid, Covid. Covid, Covid, Covid. Covid. A plane goes down, 500 people dead, they don’t talk about it. Covid Covid Covid Covid.

Jimmy Kimmel had a good take on this - Trump was basically jealous of the coverage that Covid was getting.

everlast75

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I hope he runs as a 3rd party candidate.

There is no way he gets the GOP nomination.

I agree.

I mean, what do people here think will happen to the prosecutions which were stayed due to the idea that a sitting president cannot be indicted, if they press ahead come January 2021.

For those who may not know, they include;
1) campaign finance charges 2016
2) obstruction of justice
3) federal tax charges
4) state tax charges
5) real estate fraud
6) marketing fraud
7) emoluments violations
8) defamation against a rape accuser
9) defamation against a sexual assault accuser

He can be pardoned for the federal crimes, but only if he admits what he did.

Not exactly a clean getaway.

And how will he evade his bankers calling in the $400,000,000 in debt he is *personally* liable for in 3 or so years?

All of this will surely have to go away in order for him to have any chance of running again.

Foxtrol

listermint wrote: »

But none of that has anything to do with AOC. Members of the democrats who had lost seats shouted down an open phonecall between Dems about the socialists within the party.

It wasn't AOC and I watched her interview on CNN when asked to respond to it she didn't want a lurch to the left. This is more fabrication from the same usual sources that spread the lies and fear in the first place. Amplification of these lies is the problem no having a progressive section within the Dems. The Dems should be proud of the broad church and not seek to emulate the republicans. Similar thing happened to labour in the UK and look how that's left them.

Problem is that the far left of the party have a problem with their words and actions, as what they see as throw away comments are latched on to by right wing media and used against candidates running in moderate areas. Bernie saying 'I am a socialist' or the green new deal notes saying they want to get rid of eating meat or defunding the police.

I agree they should be proud of their broad church, that however that has to include the moderates.

harr

everlast75 wrote: »

This is Biden's response to the vaccine.

No one can, with any credibility, see the difference between Trump's incompetence and this.

Night and ****ing day.

https://twitter.com/Transition46/status/1325816759690129412?s=09

First line speaks volumes “ the brilliant Women and men”

Foxtrol

awec wrote: »

I don't agree with this either though. This "mainstream media" is just deflectionary bull****.

Trumpism was successful because the people who voted for Trump were able to resonate with the message he was giving. If you want to defeat Trumpism, you need to kill the message at source. You need to restore faith in the system.

As far as I am concerned, Joe Biden should never mention Donald Trump again. Democrats should figure out why Trump picked up so many swing voters, and figure out what they can do to help those people while remaining true to their own values and principles. As I said, there is no way there is 70+ million right wing fanatics in the US.

This is the hopeful perspective that I had post 2016 but I've lost that now.

For many no restoring faith is going to help the majority of his voters, if not flat out racist they don't believe that racism is problem today or are completely anti-abortion or anti-immigration of non-white people or are anti-refugee or dont believe in climate change or don't even believe in evolution.

They have core beliefs, they always have to be the victim, and are naive enough to believe in simple fixes that Trump promised (even when they were obvious lies). Clinton got plenty of abuse for calling them deplorable but there is a sizable portion that this is the case and even if a democrat came in a improved their life they still wouldnt vote for them.

BluePlanet

Well one good thing about Trumpism is that it put pretty much all the crazies into the one basket.

Headshot

I felt Biden was so emotional there, you can see he really cares about people

So nice to see a president that is compassionate for his fellow Americans

Blowfish

hirondelle wrote: »

I fear this is just the start of it. I don't think there is an earthly chance of Trump appearing at Inauguration Day, but I do see him turning up at rallies to allow him to pretend he is still the God King- and who knows where things will go if that starts happening?

Personally I really hope he does have rallies and gets plenty of attention from them. Without, I fear that he'll lose his supply and that's when narcissists are most dangerous.

robinph wrote: »

Very unlikely to actually be massed crowds turning up on The Mall for the day, even the normal drive between the White House to the inauguration and back again will have to be done some other way to avoid crowds forming along the street, my guess would be helicopters each way.

In some ways I hope Biden decides to skip having an inauguration event on the Mall completely and instead just addresses the US from the White House. Trumps presidency began with his lies over crowd size, Biden starting by cancelling the public event in order to put the health of Americans above his own adulation would send a powerful signal.

eire4

letowski wrote: »

I think the Dems ought to thread carefully with the LP. At the end of the day, these guys are neo-conservatives of the old Bush/Reagan party, that's where their interests lay. They now have a broad outreach established among center left liberals and make no mistake, if the 2024 GOP nominee is a neo-con, they will look to target those center left liberals to get a republican back into the presidency.

As a side note, they seemed to have made themselves very rich this past year, funnelling 2/3 ($40m) of their funding (mostly Democratic donors) into communication firms, owned by the LP founders themselves. I think the 'enemy of my enemy is my friend' mutual agreement ends after this election.

Very much agree with you. The LP project people are very much of the Friedmanite disaster capitalism variety and they got what they wanted in getting rid of the president and now they will go back to making sure there is no change to the current dominance of the Chicago school of economics which has seen such a massive transfer of wealth into the hands of an elite at the top end of the economic tree in the US and of course the massive increase in wealth and income inequality in the US.