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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)
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Join Date:Posts: 15040
A week later and no definite results.. I know the outcome is known, but is it showing up that the American voting process needs to be updated , I know the postal votes are / were holding things up.
Every election seems to be throwing up issues.
The problem is, the longer this goes on it increases the chances of Trump and his allies pulling effectively a coup.
Here's what needs to happen for Biden to be confirmed President.- Counts need to finish
- State level results get certified by the respective Governors/Secretaries of State
- State send forward Electors
- Electoral College Votes
- Biden gets 270+ votes
- He's President
There are 2 key dates.
States need to certify their results before December 8th (Safe Harbour)
Electors meet on December 14th to actually cast their votes
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Trump plan here is to flood key States with a torrent of spurious court cases to delay/prevent the results being certified by the required date.
He then hopes to get the various States to do one of the following
Do not send any Electors forward as they cannot certify the results - He'd be looking at places like Arizona and Georgia for that , with GOP Governors and SoS
Send forward competing Slates of Electors - He'd be looking at Pennsylvania for that - Dem Governor , but GOP State Legislature. The likelihood is that with two sets of electors competing , both would excluded.
The End game is that no ones gets to 270 thereby forcing a "Contingent Election"
In the event of a Contingent Election , the Senate elects the VP and the House Elects the President , but in the House it's a State by State vote not a simply majority.
As it stands right now , the GOP lead the State by State count in the house 26-24 , so they'd elect Trump and the Senate would elect Pence.
This is their plan.
Now - The Sh!t-storm this would kick off would be of catastrophic proportions and they might not get away with it.
The GOP leader of the PA House has already come out and said that they would not get involved in the Electoral College process , but let's see if they withstand the pressure they are going to come under.
It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.
Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.
He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.
The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.0 -
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It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.
Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.
He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.
The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.
You would hope that if it got to that point the actual military people in charge of giving the orders on the ground would refuse to do anything other than follow the constitution which requires that Trump stands down on 20th January and would do what they deem necessary to make sure that happens. If that means letting the people protest and show their disgust at what is then being down to their country then so be it, just don't let them break too many windows in the process.0 -
I was wondering what was behind Esper's firing.It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.
Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.
He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.
However, I cannot see the military getting involved in this. Their loyalty is to the "office" of the Commander-in-Chief - not to the Commander-in-Chief himself, whatever Trump may think.
Trying to get them involved in this is, IMO, tantamount to asking them to partake in a coup, and I cannot see that happening.0 -
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We have an update from Alaska, which now says there are 157,209 uncounted ballots — up from 134,664 yesterday (the difference is likely explained by the fact that absentee ballots are still trickling in). That makes Biden’s and Gross’s path to winning a little bit easier, though it would still require an impressive comeback. Biden needs to win more than 67 percent of the outstanding ballots, while Gross needs to win more than 68 percent.
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Join Date:Posts: 15040
You would hope that if it got to that point the actual military people in charge of giving the orders on the ground would refuse to do anything other than follow the constitution which requires that Trump stands down on 20th January and would do what they deem necessary to make sure that happens. If that means letting the people protest and show their disgust at what is then being down to their country then so be it, just don't let them break too many windows in the process.I was wondering what was behind Esper's firing.
However, I cannot see the military getting involved in this. Their loyalty is to the "office" of the Commander-in-Chief - not to the Commander-in-Chief himself, whatever Trump may think.
Trying to get them involved in this is, IMO, tantamount to asking them to partake in a coup, and I cannot see that happening.
But - If they force the Contingent Election , he will be their Commander in Chief and they will have "followed the constitution" etc.
The Contingent Election route is clearly the Trump plan , they really don't have another pathway.
The courts , even the SCOTUS will knock them back , but if they can engineer it such that the Electoral college vote cannot give a candidate 270 they win and they know it.
The only hope in that scenario would be that a small few GOP office holders value the country over power - Romney and Murkowski in the Senate perhaps .
Liz Chaney would be key in the house as she is effectively the casting vote as she is the sole representative from Montana.0 -
The problem is, the longer this goes on it increases the chances of Trump and his allies pulling effectively a coup.
Here's what needs to happen for Biden to be confirmed President.- Counts need to finish
- State level results get certified by the respective Governors/Secretaries of State
- State send forward Electors
- Electoral College Votes
- Biden gets 270+ votes
- He's President
There are 2 key dates.
States need to certify their results before December 8th (Safe Harbour)
Electors meet on December 14th to actually cast their votes
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Trump plan here is to flood key States with a torrent of spurious court cases to delay/prevent the results being certified by the required date.
He then hopes to get the various States to do one of the following
Do not send any Electors forward as they cannot certify the results - He'd be looking at places like Arizona and Georgia for that , with GOP Governors and SoS
Send forward competing Slates of Electors - He'd be looking at Pennsylvania for that - Dem Governor , but GOP State Legislature. The likelihood is that with two sets of electors competing , both would excluded.
The End game is that no ones gets to 270 thereby forcing a "Contingent Election"
In the event of a Contingent Election , the Senate elects the VP and the House Elects the President , but in the House it's a State by State vote not a simply majority.
As it stands right now , the GOP lead the State by State count in the house 26-24 , so they'd elect Trump and the Senate would elect Pence.
This is their plan.
Now - The Sh!t-storm this would kick off would be of catastrophic proportions and they might not get away with it.
The GOP leader of the PA House has already come out and said that they would not get involved in the Electoral College process , but let's see if they withstand the pressure they are going to come under.
It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.
Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.
He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.
The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.
IMHO I doubt this will happen.
These lost cases are not being appealed and so are being quickly dismissed if I've read up correctly.
This is placating the toddler-in-chief.
If any of these linger, I would expect Biden to petition SCOTUS who would take it up at a moment's notice.0 -
It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.
Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.
He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.
I was racking my brains last night trying to come up with a theory about why he did this now and in the end I settled on spite, pettiness and trying to project strength and power. Your theory is far more frightening though.
I could definitely see Trump trying it on. I think that the Republicans, who he would need to play ball, would have to say "No". He'd likely have a few cultists in each state legislature and the odd Governor's mansion who would be down with subverting the process in order to keep him in charge but I think it's simply a step too far for most elected members of the GOP.0 -
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I was wondering what was behind Esper's firing.
However, I cannot see the military getting involved in this. Their loyalty is to the "office" of the Commander-in-Chief - not to the Commander-in-Chief himself, whatever Trump may think.
Trying to get them involved in this is, IMO, tantamount to asking them to partake in a coup, and I cannot see that happening.
The Generals are obliged to take legal commands from POTUS or the Sec of Defense. All commands are legal until after Trump's last day as President.
If Trump succeeds in making the validity of the election a partisan issue, with support from the Senate and Attorney General and claims the election as illegitimate then it will be for the military to intervene or ask the opinion of the US Supreme Court...Doing nothing will see Trump remaining in power.
This is what would be dictators do. They control as much as the military as possible and then force the military to act or acquiesce.
That's why this move by Trump is so unnerving. Why else would he do it?0 -
If Trump succeeds in making the validity of the election a partisan issue, with support from the Senate and Attorney General and claims the election as illegitimate then it will be for the military to intervene or ask the opinion of the US Supreme Court...Doing nothing will see Trump remaining in power.
Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Ben Sasse and Susan Collins have already congratulated Biden on his win. Mark Kelly will also be joining the chamber this month after his special election victory in Arizona. No way Trump can win a majority of support in the Senate for any of this crazy stuff.0 -
But - If they force the Contingent Election , he will be their Commander in Chief and they will have "followed the constitution" etc.
The Contingent Election route is clearly the Trump plan , they really don't have another pathway.
The courts , even the SCOTUS will knock them back , but if they can engineer it such that the Electoral college vote cannot give a candidate 270 they win and they know it.
The only hope in that scenario would be that a small few GOP office holders value the country over power - Romney and Murkowski in the Senate perhaps .
Liz Chaney would be key in the house as she is effectively the casting vote as she is the sole representative from Montana.
Cheney is from Wyoming. Point still stands.0 -
The problem is, the longer this goes on it increases the chances of Trump and his allies pulling effectively a coup.
Here's what needs to happen for Biden to be confirmed President.- Counts need to finish
- State level results get certified by the respective Governors/Secretaries of State
- State send forward Electors
- Electoral College Votes
- Biden gets 270+ votes
- He's President
There are 2 key dates.
States need to certify their results before December 8th (Safe Harbour)
Electors meet on December 14th to actually cast their votes
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Trump plan here is to flood key States with a torrent of spurious court cases to delay/prevent the results being certified by the required date.
He then hopes to get the various States to do one of the following
Do not send any Electors forward as they cannot certify the results - He'd be looking at places like Arizona and Georgia for that , with GOP Governors and SoS
Send forward competing Slates of Electors - He'd be looking at Pennsylvania for that - Dem Governor , but GOP State Legislature. The likelihood is that with two sets of electors competing , both would excluded.
The End game is that no ones gets to 270 thereby forcing a "Contingent Election"
In the event of a Contingent Election , the Senate elects the VP and the House Elects the President , but in the House it's a State by State vote not a simply majority.
As it stands right now , the GOP lead the State by State count in the house 26-24 , so they'd elect Trump and the Senate would elect Pence.
This is their plan.
Now - The Sh!t-storm this would kick off would be of catastrophic proportions and they might not get away with it.
The GOP leader of the PA House has already come out and said that they would not get involved in the Electoral College process , but let's see if they withstand the pressure they are going to come under.
It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.
Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.
He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.
The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.
Really sounds like all the pipedreams that were happening at this time in 2016 post Hillary's defeat. There talk of Jill Stein doing recounts, calls for electors to vote for Hillary etc.
Is it potentially a slightly great chance this time... potentially but still a tiny likelihood of occurring.0 -
Brussels Sprout wrote: »I was racking my brains last night trying to come up with a theory about why he did this now and in the end I settled on spite, pettiness and trying to project strength and power. Your theory is far more frightening though.
I could definitely see Trump trying it on. I think that the Republicans, who he would need to play ball, would have to say "No". He'd likely have a few cultists in each state legislature and the odd Governor's mansion who would be down with subverting the process in order to keep him in charge but I think it's simply a step too far for most elected members of the GOP.
This would definitely fit with McConnell and the GOP's 'Constitutional Hardball' approach of recent decades.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3126344
In the context of everything that McConnell and Trump have done in recent years, it's not as outrageous a scenario as it would initially appear.0 -
Brussels Sprout wrote: »I was racking my brains last night trying to come up with a theory about why he did this now and in the end I settled on spite, pettiness and trying to project strength and power. Your theory is far more frightening though.
I could definitely see Trump trying it on. I think that the Republicans, who he would need to play ball, would have to say "No". He'd likely have a few cultists in each state legislature and the odd Governor's mansion who would be down with subverting the process in order to keep him in charge but I think it's simply a step too far for most elected members of the GOP.
Could well be a step they are more than happy to take.
The GOP have a record for voter suppression etc well before this election, fake ballot boxes in this one
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/politics/california-gop-drop-boxes.html
"Government officials say the receptacles are illegal and could lead to election fraud, but the party says it will continue the practice"0 -
But - If they force the Contingent Election , he will be their Commander in Chief and they will have "followed the constitution" etc.
The Contingent Election route is clearly the Trump plan , they really don't have another pathway.
The courts , even the SCOTUS will knock them back , but if they can engineer it such that the Electoral college vote cannot give a candidate 270 they win and they know it.
The only hope in that scenario would be that a small few GOP office holders value the country over power - Romney and Murkowski in the Senate perhaps .
Liz Chaney would be key in the house as she is effectively the casting vote as she is the sole representative from Montana.
Has the Contingent Election route ever been used before, I dont recall hearing about it before. Is there a precedent?0 -
Loeffler is a QAnon headcase aye?
Not at all.
She is probably one of the wealthiest people in congress.
The issue with her is she has tried to ride the Trump train because she didn't really have any grassroot support when she got the senate position.
It feels very fake and at times cringeworthy, I'd call her many things but a "headcase " isn't one of them.0 -
The problem is, the longer this goes on it increases the chances of Trump and his allies pulling effectively a coup.
Here's what needs to happen for Biden to be confirmed President.- Counts need to finish
- State level results get certified by the respective Governors/Secretaries of State
- State send forward Electors
- Electoral College Votes
- Biden gets 270+ votes
- He's President
There are 2 key dates.
States need to certify their results before December 8th (Safe Harbour)
Electors meet on December 14th to actually cast their votes
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Trump plan here is to flood key States with a torrent of spurious court cases to delay/prevent the results being certified by the required date.
He then hopes to get the various States to do one of the following
Do not send any Electors forward as they cannot certify the results - He'd be looking at places like Arizona and Georgia for that , with GOP Governors and SoS
Send forward competing Slates of Electors - He'd be looking at Pennsylvania for that - Dem Governor , but GOP State Legislature. The likelihood is that with two sets of electors competing , both would excluded.
The End game is that no ones gets to 270 thereby forcing a "Contingent Election"
In the event of a Contingent Election , the Senate elects the VP and the House Elects the President , but in the House it's a State by State vote not a simply majority.
As it stands right now , the GOP lead the State by State count in the house 26-24 , so they'd elect Trump and the Senate would elect Pence.
This is their plan.
Now - The Sh!t-storm this would kick off would be of catastrophic proportions and they might not get away with it.
The GOP leader of the PA House has already come out and said that they would not get involved in the Electoral College process , but let's see if they withstand the pressure they are going to come under.
It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.
Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.
He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.
The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.
I think there are a few Senate republicans who would not countenance this - Romney, Collins, Murmowski. Enough to swing it Joe's way. To allow the theft of an election, by following the route outlined above, and also in more detail in this article, would destroy American Democracy, I am not sure all Republicans can be relied upon to sign up for this madness!0 -
I wonder why this tweet was deleted
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1326186765879832576
Logan act maybe?0 -
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Not at all.
She is probably one of the wealthiest people in congress.
The issue with her is she has tried to ride the Trump train because she didn't really have any grassroot support when she got the senate position.
It feels very fake and at times cringeworthy, I'd call her many things but a "headcase " isn't one of them.
She happily took the endorsement of her new house colleague, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is knee deep in Q Anon conspiracies, so she clearly has no morals and at least a sympathy in that direction.0 -
The Generals are obliged to take legal commands from POTUS or the Sec of Defense. All commands are legal until after Trump's last day as President.
If Trump succeeds in making the validity of the election a partisan issue, with support from the Senate and Attorney General and claims the election as illegitimate then it will be for the military to intervene or ask the opinion of the US Supreme Court...Doing nothing will see Trump remaining in power.
This is what would be dictators do. They control as much as the military as possible and then force the military to act or acquiesce.
That's why this move by Trump is so unnerving. Why else would he do it?
He has wanted to fire some people since before the election but has been convinced that doing so would hurt his chances, thats over now so the firings will begin.
I don't doubt he would be very happy to try to force this contingent election and that he will fight tooth and nail to hold on to power but I do very much doubt it would actually have any chance of happening.
They have been playing around the edges of having an authoritarian/strongman and damaging their democracy by bending rules as they see them to their advantage but that is then taking a massive leap to full on country torn apart and changed forever.
There is no way back from that like, thats it. The country is over, I don't think they are quite ready to make that leap. trump? He doesn't care, only about his own survival but I genuinely don't think he would have the support to completely end the country.
You are no longer playing with voter suppression and the other dark arts of politics you are now in full on military coup territory and I just don't see that as being a reasonable outcome here. I don't think he gets the support of the congress to do it, I don't think he will have the military support that would be required either."People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."
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This is sore loser level 500 stuff !0
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Join Date:Posts: 15040
Has the Contingent Election route ever been used before, I dont recall hearing about it before. Is there a precedent?
It has been used , but not in 150+ years.
Martin Van Buren I think was elected that way.
Don't get me wrong - This is something that would be very hard to do and I suspect lots of people on both sides would push back hard on this if they try it.
But that does not alter the fact that this is clearly something that the Trump team have thought about and have as a viable pathway in their "Battle plan" should(when) the various court cases fail.
Their willingness to try it will be predicated on how compliant/complicit the various entities required are.0 -
There's not a hope that the army are going to aid Trump in trying to stage a coup.0
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Not at all.
She is probably one of the wealthiest people in congress.
The issue with her is she has tried to ride the Trump train because she didn't really have any grassroot support when she got the senate position.
It feels very fake and at times cringeworthy, I'd call her many things but a "headcase " isn't one of them.
She has gone down the Qanon rabbit hole the last while has she not?
If for nothing else alone she should have been voted out for playing dumb when asked about trumps bus pussy grabbing tape thing a little while ago too."People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."
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It has been used , but not in 150+ years.
Martin Van Buren I think was elected that way.
Don't get me wrong - This is something that would be very hard to do and I suspect lots of people on both sides would push back hard on this if they try it.
But that does not alter the fact that this is clearly something that the Trump team have thought about and have as a viable pathway in their "Battle plan" should(when) the various court cases fail.
Their willingness to try it will be predicated on how compliant/complicit the various entities required are.
Yup, this was the plan if/when Biden ended up winning with a small margin in one or two states, and they seem to be going ahead with it, for now.
I get the feeling that McConnell and the rest are playing along though. I have no illusions regarding the ruthlessness of the GOP, but this is a big risk to take for a potentially small gain, plus the US's institutions have proven surprisingly resilient when faced with direct challenges - so far at least.0 -
3 times, but the last one was 1837 (and that was for the vice-president). Technically-speaking, the routes to a contingent election are fairly straight-forward, they're just all unlikely in practice:Has the Contingent Election route ever been used before, I dont recall hearing about it before. Is there a precedent?- A straight 269-tie in the electoral college between the two main nominees. The mathematics of this just make it improbable
- A third party gaining enough electoral college votes so that no candidate reaches 270. Extremely unlikely. Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote in 1992, but didn't pick up a single electoral college vote
- Faithless electors i.e. nominees to the electoral college that cast their vote for someone that the state didn't vote for. Again, extremely unlikely. Some states have laws that just let them replace the elector until they find someone to cast a faithful vote. Some have prison terms and fines. And while some have no penalty at all, the chances of someone making such a move that would have an actual outcome on the race is incredibly remote (2016 had quite a few protest votes - Bernie Sanders picked up an electoral college vote, and Colin Powell(!) received three, but these were all made safe in the knowledge that they made no functional difference to the outcome)
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None of thats going to happen, they know they've lost, they're just dragging it out as long as possible to try and pay off the campaign debt, even Fox reporting this story now:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-campaign-legal-defense-donations-debt/0 -
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3 times, but the last one was 1837 (and that was for the vice-president). Technically-speaking, the routes to a contingent election are fairly straight-forward, they're just all unlikely in practice:
- A straight 269-tie in the electoral college between the two main nominees. The mathematics of this just make it improbable
- A third party gaining enough electoral college votes so that no candidate reaches 270. Extremely unlikely. Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote in 1992, but didn't pick up a single electoral college vote
- Faithless electors i.e. nominees to the electoral college that cast their vote for someone that the state didn't vote for. Again, extremely unlikely. Some states have laws that just let them replace the elector until they find someone to cast a faithful vote. Some have prison terms and fines. And while some have no penalty at all, the chances of someone making such a move that would have an actual outcome on the race is incredibly remote (2016 had quite a few protest votes - Bernie Sanders picked up an electoral college vote, and Colin Powell(!) received three, but these were all made safe in the knowledge that they made no functional difference to the outcome)
We might as well start talking about the active use of the second amendment to inhibit a tyrannical government (leaving aside that Pro-2nd amendment people want this President to be tyrannical). Trump lost, and he can wail and cry and throw his toys about but ultimately, the states will certify their counts and their electors will nominate the President as is supposed to happen.
I am actually glad to see Trump behaving like this because every day he does so makes it less likely him or his offspring will ever be countenanced for political office again.0
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