US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Faugheen

Mike Pence won’t (and can’t) do anything other than give the Republican challengers what they want if they object, because they have the right to do so.

When the House shoots those objections down. Pence will move on as normal

pixelburp

Kiith wrote: »

Joe Manchin will become very important to both parties now.

This is a key pillar of the whole chapter, forgotten in the immediate mathematical fallout of Georgia: Manchin is the very definition of Democrat In Name Only and it's entirely possible - if not likely - he'll cross the aisle for any and all bills that have even the vaguest whiff of "Liberalism" (which in 2020 America now also includes environmentalism and sensible pandemic strategies, perversely). The victory today is the Democrats but I suspect there'll still be deep struggles to get manifestos applied. A 50-50 split is still a precarious position.

kilns

Faugheen wrote: »

Yep. Probably the most powerful Senator in there now.

Dont forget Susan...

Brussels Sprout

kilns wrote: »

Dont forget Susan...

Nah, she's only relevant if the Republicans are in the majority. As a Republican she's already to the right of Manchin by definition, since the gap between the parties is so large now.

• Collins voted with Trump 66% of the time - which was the lowest of any Republican.
• Manchin voted with him 51% of the time - which was the highest of any of the remaining Democrats.

Manchin and the 2 Senators from Arizona: Sinema (also 51% Trump score) and Kelly (new) are the swing votes now.


Trump scores link

embraer170

Thank you Trump!

Faugheen

The only things Biden is near-guaranteed at this moment is his cabinet and any potential judicial appointment. Breyer will surely be retiring soon so this will become important.

You might see the likes of Collins and Murkowski side with any potential judicial appointment as well.

Larbre34

Quin_Dub wrote: »

You have to wonder looking at the different results in the two races - Who in hell voted for Warnock AND Perdue?
.

Misogynists.

Its still the deep south.

Quin_Dub

namloc1980 wrote: »

He can't challenge the results.

Absolutely Correct , but he will "put on a show"first.

He'll make a long-winded speech about "The Constitution" and "Election Integrity" and how the people lodging their complaints are true patriots blah blah blah.

Then everyone will toddle off to their respective chambers where various Republicans will clutch their pearls and rant about "China" and "The Radical Socialists".

Then they'll vote - And they'll lose in both Houses.

They'll all get back together and Pence will mumble about the Constitution again and take a few pot shots at those "unpatriotic members" that voted against this just cause etc. etc.

Then he will be forced to utter the words - "Joe Biden is the next President of the United States".

Just as it has been for the last 4 years , this will be a show put on for an Audience of one.

Quin_Dub

pixelburp wrote: »

This is a key pillar of the whole chapter, forgotten in the immediate mathematical fallout of Georgia: Manchin is the very definition of Democrat In Name Only and it's entirely possible - if not likely - he'll cross the aisle for any and all bills that have even the vaguest whiff of "Liberalism" (which in 2020 America now also includes environmentalism and sensible pandemic strategies, perversely). The victory today is the Democrats but I suspect there'll still be deep struggles to get manifestos applied. A 50-50 split is still a precarious position.

The biggest challenge that Biden will have with Manchin is that he doesn't support the removal of the Filibuster.

If they can't get that out of the way , then the value of the majority is virtually wiped out.

Brussels Sprout

Quin_Dub wrote: »

You have to wonder looking at the different results in the two races - Who in hell voted for Warnock AND Perdue?

Utterly bizarre.

The theory seems to be that they were mostly people who would consider themselves traditional Republican voters but who disliked Trump. Loeffler was nothing more than a Trump proxy candidate. Her whole shtick was that she voted for Trump legislation practically all of the time. She was never elected - got picked by the Governor, as the wife of a wealthy donor, to take over a seat after an early retirement.

Perdue had actually been elected himself 6 years ago so had more bona-fides as a "traditional Republican".


Alternatively, there's a theory that some Southern Christians would vote for a Pastor (Warnock) but not a Jew (Ossoff). Not sure about this though since most people with these kinds of convictions were probably voting for the Trump backed candidates anyway.

Brussels Sprout

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If they can't get that out of the way , then the value of the majority is virtually wiped out.

Is it really though? Like, let's take an extreme example and say that they spend 2 years trying to pass 1 single Bill. Can the Republicans filibuster it for that long? Surely there is some kind of limit?

Bobeagleburger

Trumps legacy. Hands total control to Democrats. Quite fitting.

Igotadose

I wonder how many of these patriots voted for Romney 8 years ago?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1346597598044561409

It's why my US friends tell me, "Don't move back."

Itssoeasy

I’d say that al gore must be kicking himself to learn that he could have overturned the vote in 2000 and didn’t do it. I’m joking of course because Nixon and gore could have then overturned the results of their respective election defeats. I’d worry If trump truly believes the VP can overturn the results because it would reinforce the impression he hasn’t a clue how any of it works. And as it seems likely the democrats will win the second seat, then the important phrase is “control of the senate” so while the number maybe 50-50 the democrats will control the legislative agenda of the senate. Chuck Schumer and not Mitch McConnell will decide.

MJohnston

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Is it really though? Like, let's take an extreme example and say that they spend 2 years trying to pass 1 single Bill. Can the Republicans filibuster it for that long? Surely there is some kind of limit?

Filibusters don't really literally happen anymore, it's usually the threat of one that is enough to kill a bill (and when you think about it, if there aren't enough votes to kill the filibuster, then there would be at least 40 opposing senators who would do the literal filibuster thing on the floor, which could go on indefinitely - that's why it's rarely actually forced to a literal filibuster).

That said, with the nuclear option (changing the senate rules with a simple majority to kill the filibuster), an interesting quirk is that according to Senate rules:

A simple majority vote is defined as at least 50% plus one of the Senators voting, provided that a quorum is present.

With all 100 senators present, that means 51 votes.

With 98 senators present, that simple majority would instead be 50 votes. I do wonder whether this would apply to Senate rules too. There were certainly plenty of moments in recent months where various Republican senators were isolating with Covid. Give them a taste of their own "who cares about the unspoken rules and traditions" approach.

pixelburp

If indeed America ever slid properly into full-blown authoritarianism, you'd imagine at this stage it'll be heralded as a great patriotic movement and not lack for popular support. Watching the above video of Romney abused on that flight is kinda sad; not enraging or worrying anymore, just pathetic; I'm resigned to the distinct possibility of America self-destructing, in some way shape or form. The manner in which Trump's supporters have latched onto this election as "Stolen" or the conspiracy of the Deep State - despite every ounce of legal or institutional evidence to the contrary - would be astonishing if it weren't for the known poverty of education across the country. And those higher up in the pecking order manipulating those demographics.

I know there are some that reckon once Trump is out of office the Cult will fade into obscurity, but I'm not sure. I flip-flop. In many respects, the Democrats regaining control of the senate is only going to feed into the narrative from the darker corners of the Rust Belt that this was a stolen election. Nor do I expect the Tucker Carlson or Newsmax's of this world to taper back their rhetoric; indeed I expect it to get worse given it'll be a huge ratings boon for them - with no accountability.

listermint

Igotadose wrote: »

I wonder how many of these patriots voted for Romney 8 years ago?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1346597598044561409

It's why my US friends tell me, "Don't move back."

Flight Full of patriots appears to be in reality just three people making a show of themselves , probably en route to the trump rally today.

The Democrats have to make use of the next 2 years. Biden would love some bipartisanship but that ship has pretty much sailed in how it's usually thought of. Here's what they need to do as I see it:

Get judges lined up. Not just supreme court, all the circuits. The GOP filled a massive amount of vacancies in the last 4 and it won't be possible to undo all of that. However it's something that can be done at party and "staffer" (hate that term) level. Some party unity is needed. Forget ideological purity, just get judges in who won't read the law through the lens of people who didn't know about electricity. As with Breyer, at the more local level see if anyone is amenable to stepping aside now rather than risking the GOP getting back in in 2 years time.

At the Presidential level, rescind pretty much every EO Trump brought in. Get straight back into the Paris accords and Iran nuclear deal. The Iran nuclear deal isn't perfect but it's a case of something being better than nothing.

Tying into the judges thing, get organised at state and local level. Get out the vote stuff is massively important but the gears of government now need to be understood and run efficiently and intelligently. Even where the GOP win the vote easily they need to get out and talk to people at the local level, find how they can make local and state government work for them. Broad strokes that appeal only to the coasts are well and good but the Dems need to rebuild from what's left of the labour movement and show that they're not just about doing "good" that makes them feel good.

"Go nuclear" and get rid of the filibuster. Amazing that such an action could be considered a big deal but it shows how their idea of "normal" is skewed. Once they've gotten a few things through and shown they mean business for once then there's a little chance that some of the Republicans will adjust to the new normal and be willing to come into the fold to get things they want done. Because right now the GOP are going to say no to everything anyway. There's no point trying to make a deal with someone who has no interest in making one.

And above all do what they can to get on top of Covid. There's a rough few months ahead (and not just in the US) and there's no easy answers. Where feasible listen to the states and provide what they request. Where a state isn't being proactive step in and throw more resources at them.

Point being, the GOP have nailed their colours to the mast. Negotiation isn't possible. So work around them, show that they won't win by throwing their tantrums, do what you can to protect the people of the US. The GOP will continue with the "Them v Us" stuff no matter what so just do the best you can around that and hope that the results speak for themselves.

Anyway, it's a good day for the United States. Functionally it could be the best day for a quarter of a century but the Democrats must grasp it and not waste it.

BonnieSituation

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Warnocks lead is way outside any margin for a recount , so Loeffler can whinge all she likes.

They'll probably go back to court to try and overturn the decision by Stacey Abrams sister , but that only involved about 4k votes , so not enough to matter.

If Ossoffs wins as projected , then Perdue might make the recount threshold , but again it won't change the result.

You have to wonder looking at the different results in the two races - Who in hell voted for Warnock AND Perdue?

Utterly bizarre.

Yeah. Fascinating.

There was a +194 vote difference in total vote count between Warnock-Loeffler and Ossoff-Perdue at one point that I calculated.

194 people voted in one race and not the other... That's even more bizzare.

TommyKnocker

Faugheen wrote: »

Mike Pence won’t (and can’t) do anything other than give the Republican challengers what they want if they object, because they have the right to do so.

When the House shoots those objections down. Pence will move on as normal

That is what he is supposed to do, but what is the procedure if Pence goes rogue and tries to assume more powers than he actually has under the law to try to change the results as Trump wants him to? How would this be handled?

Quin_Dub

TommyKnocker wrote: »

That is what he is supposed to do, but what is the procedure if Pence goes rogue and tries to assume more powers than he actually has under the law to try to change the results as Trump wants him to? How would this be handled?

It still has to be voted on - Pence simply doesn't have authority to make a unilateral decision.

If he tries to insert his own alternative slate of electors , then a Democrat will object and it goes back out to a congressional vote , where his slate would be voted down.

It is an act of theatre for the petulant child and his ill informed supporters , nothing more nothing less.

Trump thrives on Malice and anger , he has lost but now he'll have an incredibly angry core of supporters that will hand over money to him like tithes to the Church and who will provide him with a level of influence over of the GOP into the future that his ability and intelligence do not warrant.

TomOnBoard

pixelburp wrote: »

This is a key pillar of the whole chapter, forgotten in the immediate mathematical fallout of Georgia: Manchin is the very definition of Democrat In Name Only and it's entirely possible - if not likely - he'll cross the aisle for any and all bills that have even the vaguest whiff of "Liberalism" (which in 2020 America now also includes environmentalism and sensible pandemic strategies, perversely). The victory today is the Democrats but I suspect there'll still be deep struggles to get manifestos applied. A 50-50 split is still a precarious position.

Fair point. However, I forsee a massive effort on the part of many of the more 'centrist'(read less bat**** crazy ultra-right wing loons) to re-habilitate themselves post Trump, thereby becoming more bi-partisan in their voting. With the Senate reins removed from McConnell, personal survival will take over.

TomOnBoard

Larbre34 wrote: »

Misogynists.

Its still the deep south.

And Anti-Semites....

Quin_Dub

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Fair point. However, I forsee a massive effort on the part of many of the more 'centrist'(read less bat**** crazy ultra-right wing loons) to re-habilitate themselves post Trump, thereby becoming more bi-partisan in their voting. With the Senate reins removed from McConnell, personal survival will take over.

I think you'll see a bit of a split in behaviours based on the election cycles.

Those Senators that are up for re-Election in 2022 will probably be less likely to move too far away from Trump just yet as they might fear him pushing a primary candidate against them.

Those Senators that were just re-elected or those that aren't up until 2024 might feel a bit safer in shifting away from the Trump base over the next 12 months.

TomOnBoard

Deleted User wrote: »

The Democrats have to make use of the next 2 years. Biden would love some bipartisanship but that ship has pretty much sailed in how it's usually thought of. Here's what they need to do as I see it:

Get judges lined up. Not just supreme court, all the circuits. The GOP filled a massive amount of vacancies in the last 4 and it won't be possible to undo all of that. However it's something that can be done at party and "staffer" (hate that term) level. Some party unity is needed. Forget ideological purity, just get judges in who won't read the law through the lens of people who didn't know about electricity. As with Breyer, at the more local level see if anyone is amenable to stepping aside now rather than risking the GOP getting back in in 2 years time.

At the Presidential level, rescind pretty much every EO Trump brought in. Get straight back into the Paris accords and Iran nuclear deal. The Iran nuclear deal isn't perfect but it's a case of something being better than nothing.

Tying into the judges thing, get organised at state and local level. Get out the vote stuff is massively important but the gears of government now need to be understood and run efficiently and intelligently. Even where the GOP win the vote easily they need to get out and talk to people at the local level, find how they can make local and state government work for them. Broad strokes that appeal only to the coasts are well and good but the Dems need to rebuild from what's left of the labour movement and show that they're not just about doing "good" that makes them feel good.

"Go nuclear" and get rid of the filibuster. Amazing that such an action could be considered a big deal but it shows how their idea of "normal" is skewed. Once they've gotten a few things through and shown they mean business for once then there's a little chance that some of the Republicans will adjust to the new normal and be willing to come into the fold to get things they want done. Because right now the GOP are going to say no to everything anyway. There's no point trying to make a deal with someone who has no interest in making one.

And above all do what they can to get on top of Covid. There's a rough few months ahead (and not just in the US) and there's no easy answers. Where feasible listen to the states and provide what they request. Where a state isn't being proactive step in and throw more resources at them.

Point being, the GOP have nailed their colours to the mast. Negotiation isn't possible. So work around them, show that they won't win by throwing their tantrums, do what you can to protect the people of the US. The GOP will continue with the "Them v Us" stuff no matter what so just do the best you can around that and hope that the results speak for themselves.

Anyway, it's a good day for the United States. Functionally it could be the best day for a quarter of a century but the Democrats must grasp it and not waste it.

Good post.. for my money, the 1st thing should be to remove the most egregious of Trump's anti-environment/pro-crony deals and EOs. Don't waste time on some stuff- let it peter out itself. Immediately, get a new Voter Rights Act into law. 2022 is gonna be an almost impossible win, after the reality of Covid and the economy really hits public consciousness.

CrabRevolution

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Yeah. Fascinating.

There was a +194 vote difference in total vote count between Warnock-Loeffler and Ossoff-Perdue at one point that I calculated.

194 people voted in one race and not the other... That's even more bizzare.

If you trawl through the Northern Ireland electoral results and look at transfers after election/elimination you get some funny ones as well. There will be a tiny number of voters who will vote for the DUP but then skip all the moderate unionist, non-aligned and moderate nationalist parties and give their next preference to a Sinn Féin candidate...

seamus

CrabRevolution wrote: »

If you trawl through the Northern Ireland electoral results and look at transfers after election/elimination you get some funny ones as well. There will be a tiny number of voters who will vote for the DUP but then skip all the moderate unionist, non-aligned and moderate nationalist parties and give their next preference to a Sinn Féin candidate...

This kind of thing does go on everywhere. People will vote for a candidate who is a friend, or a friend of a friend, or your mother's friend's great-nephew, or went to the same school as you, or was once in a club with you when you were five, etc etc, even if they absolutely detest that candidate's party.

So you do get these weird situations where someone votes for two polar opposite candidates; or votes for the candidate on one ballot and leaves the other blank.

L1011

It's rare that you ever get quite as clean and sensible results as you'd expect. NI's fractional transfers makes that even more so.

2016 in my area, the Renua candidate transferred - from his 1200 - 200 to the Greens (he was ex-Green tbh, no idea why he ran for Renua), 80 to Labour and weirdest of all, 120 to a hard-left independent and 80 to SF!

He'd also got 80 from the SocDems surplus to begin with.

TomOnBoard

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Good post.. for my money, the 1st thing should be to remove the most egregious of Trump's anti-environment/pro-crony deals and EOs. Don't waste time on some stuff- let it peter out itself. Immediately, get a new Voter Rights Act into law. 2022 is gonna be an almost impossible win, after the reality of Covid and the economy really hits public consciousness.

I had thought they'd be ****ed for 22 as well but now I'm thinking if they bulldoze stuff through, get the taps open and get rebuilding quickly. If the GOP can't stop the spending then they might have a shot after all.
Either way, the Democrats need to make hay while they can.

Overheal

Igotadose wrote: »

I wonder how many of these patriots voted for Romney 8 years ago?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1346597598044561409

It's why my US friends tell me, "Don't move back."

Either all of them or none of them. He did lose after all :pac: