US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

errlloyd

Francie Barrett wrote: »

A wrap up of the predictions.

Economist have Biden winning at 96% - https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
538 have Biden winning at 89% - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Betfair give Biden a 66% chance of winning - https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

I put a decent wedge on Biden earlier because of this. Maybe I'm crazy....

listermint

consulatory wrote: »

If you think that was 'just a simple message', and not loaded to the brim, then I think you are their target market.

Feel good nonsense with no basis in reality.

Ah right, I suppose maybe they could put ads out where someone works their socks off in let's say waitressing and Bar work. Doing the American dream putting yourself through multiple jobs and looking after your family whilst putting yourself through school.

Then maybe let's say making it through Congress to become a senator, after running an extremely successful campaign against an incumbent.


And after Doing all that just be dismissed as a waitress.. by the same people selling the story of bootstraps.

Maybe that makes a better ad? perhaps.

Canice Picklington

consulatory wrote: »

How so? Literally a quote from the Charlamange tha God interview.

Please don't be silly and read words as they are written without imposing your own knee-jerk reaction on to them.

You called a very positive message which Kamala Harris tweeted "pandering to black people".

I think any reasonable person can see the problem there.

BonnieSituation

consulatory wrote: »

It was on Charlamange tha God's show(https://youtu.be/oRZd861Pog0?t=1497)

The same place Biden(the 80 year old white guy) attempted to gatekeep blackness by saying: "If you have a problem figuring out if you’re for me or Trump then you ain’t black” . If a black American said that, I'd tell them to go f%^& themselves. Imagine hearing it from a white guy who's lived at least 60 years of privilege in his life. With more than enough time to think. How did those words come out of his mouth like? Unreal. Hate that sh&T
https://youtu.be/KOIFs_SryHI?t=1039

I mean, Trump/pence or Biden/Harris - I'd definitely be spoiling my vote on the day. Rock and a hard place.

Dems would've been better off pulling Bernie towards center than going ahead with Biden.

Who cares where it was. It was an irrelevance. Seems only you remembered it enough to accord it some value 4 years later.

As regards the Dems "pulling Bernie to the centre"? Why? What? How? Why?

Better of in what sense, so that they'd definitely lose? You realise that they've a massive shot on having all three branches right?

Your political radar is, and this is putting it nicely, a bit off.

AMKC

82 per cent of Irish people want Biden to win.

Go Joe Biden Go Kamala Harris.

Let's hope for all our sakes and for our sanity that they win.

Water John

Sad to see cities across the US boarding up the night before an election.

letowski

Steve Schale did a very good numbers breakdown of the state of play in Florida heading into tomorrow:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/11/2/here-we-are.html

A worthwhile read of the voter demographics in Florida and what to look out for. He is a good follow on Twitter, for people looking for early insights tomorrow.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

briany wrote: »

The absolute shítetalk coming out of Trump regarding the count. He is talking about the election being decided on the night of the polls closing and votes counted in the days following being in question. That's patently ridiculous. No-one can defend that. A two week deadline in counting votes is nothing out of the ordinary. Mail-in voting is not out of the ordinary. Trump questioning both is absolutely shameful, but he has no shame. The best the trolls can do is glib equivocation. Let the votes be counted as they have been in every previous election and see where the chips fall.

I know. I will lose all respect for anyone I hear defending that shite in any way. That is Mugabe-level nonsense.

Water John

letowski wrote: »

Steve Schale did a very good numbers breakdown of the state of play in Florida heading into tomorrow:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/11/2/here-we-are.html

A worthwhile read of the voter demographics in Florida and what to look out for. He is a good follow on Twitter, for people looking for early insights tomorrow.

Great read.

Brussels Sprout

Water John wrote: »

Sad to see cities across the US boarding up the night before an election.

The only outcome that I can imagine that does not lead to turmoil is a big Biden win.

The only other two possibilities are a narrow victory either way:

If Trump wins at this stage, given that he's twice as far back in the polls as he was 4 years ago, it's quite likely to involve legal challenges to mail vote counting and ultimately, the Supreme Court. I can't even imagine what will happen if that turn of events comes to pass given what has happened with that court over the past 4 years.

On the flip-side, let's say that Trump wins Florida and is ahead in the vote counting in Pennsylvania. I expect that under those circumstances he will declare victory. Now I don't expect anyone outside of his media bubble to back him up but his supporters will be listening. If Biden then, as expected does better with mail votes and passes him out Trump will say that the election has been "stolen" from him. That will unleash chaos.

If I was a business owner in a city I would probably be boarding my premises up as well.

Brussels Sprout

https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1323407243484798979

Mr.Nice Guy

AMKC wrote: »

82 per cent of Irish people want Biden to win.

Go Joe Biden Go Kamala Harris.

Let's hope for all our sakes and for our sanity that they win.

My father is one of the 18 per cent who don't. Most of my life I have heard him slate Irish politicians for not giving a damn about the poor, and yet he will defend Trump with a cultlike fervour that has left me scratching my head. I've had so many bitter arguments over the years about it and that's one of the reasons this election feels very personal.

Water John

The Florida system of having the mail in already counted and released immediately after close of vote is much better.

kowloon

Graham wrote: »

You get your US election news from a 'Doctor', on Youtube that sells secret weight loss powder from a link beneath his videos?

That's err, different.

Hey, at least if Trump loses there'll be a 100% effective weight loss solution to counteract all the comfort eating.

I'd also recommend picking up some of the Alex Jones anti-coronavirus toothpaste before stocks run out.

What is it with so many "political commentators" also selling pseudoscientific healthcare products?

StupidLikeAFox

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

My father is one of the 18 per cent who don't. Most of my life I have heard him slate Irish politicians for not giving a damn about the poor, and yet he will defend Trump with a cultlike fervour that has left me scratching my head. I've had so many bitter arguments over the years about it and that's one of the reasons this election feels very personal.

Is he on Facebook? Could be the algorithms...

Tell me how

PalLimerick wrote: »

You'd swear Biden was Padre Pio with posters on here. He is a horrible Man, as is his son. Is Trump perfect?, definitely not. Remember these same polls predicted a win for " Madam" President ��.

Boards.ie users overall are definitely Pro Democrat and biased. Lets wait for the results and don't do what Trump is accused of and count the votes before they're cast, in turn declaring early victory.

So, who would you vote for if you had a vote tomorrow.

Two choices, Trump or Biden. One vote.

And why?

~Rebel~

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

My father is one of the 18 per cent who don't. Most of my life I have heard him slate Irish politicians for not giving a damn about the poor, and yet he will defend Trump with a cultlike fervour that has left me scratching my head. I've had so many bitter arguments over the years about it and that's one of the reasons this election feels very personal.

I hope whatever happens tomorrow and over the next week or so that yee still find yourselves on decent terms anyway.

Yeah I'm not a particular fan of Biden. One weakness of the Left is allowing fragmentation and refusing to hold one's nose in an election. TBH I don't think Biden particular wanted to run but it turns out he was the most popular candidate and most viable, something I'm sure they made completely sure of before he entered the race.

~Rebel~

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yeah I'm not a particular fan of Biden. One weakness of the Left is allowing fragmentation and refusing to hold one's nose in an election. TBH I don't think Biden particular wanted to run but it turns out he was the most popular candidate and most viable, something I'm sure they made completely sure of before he entered the race.

Yeah, I think he’s the candidate because nobody hated him, rather than because anyone loved him. He’s the compromise that those fragmented groups you mention could all reluctantly get behind.

Basically, he’s grand like.

But to be honest, that’s perhaps what the US needs right now.

Fr Tod Umptious

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah I'm not a particular fan of Biden. One weakness of the Left is allowing fragmentation and refusing to hold one's nose in an election. TBH I don't think Biden particular wanted to run but it turns out he was the most popular candidate and most viable, something I'm sure they made completely sure of before he entered the race.

He's in the race because the Democrat higher ups knew they were going nowhere with the so called "progressives", the likes of Warren, Sanders etc.

He was parachuted in relatively late because he was the only one who could be competitive for those white, older, small c conservative votes that were need in the rust belt.

I don't know if he wins or not, but he was their best shot.

listermint

PalLimerick wrote: »

You'd swear Biden was Padre Pio with posters on here. He is a horrible Man, as is his son. Is Trump perfect?, definitely not. Remember these same polls predicted a win for " Madam" President 😂.

Boards.ie users overall are definitely Pro Democrat and biased. Lets wait for the results and don't do what Trump is accused of and count the votes before they're cast, in turn declaring early victory.

Lay off Facebook, read a few books. Perhaps the ones actually about trump and or Biden.

inform yourself and don't be relying on a feed of information from a hugely questionable social media website.

Expect actions from global government's in the next few years to make Facebook accountable and treat it like a publisher so it has to start following actual rules about what's on it.


Everyone is capable of educating themselves properly these days.

listermint

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

He's in the race because the Democrat higher ups knew they were going nowhere with the so called "progressives", the likes of Warren, Sanders etc.

He was parachuted in relatively late because he was the only one who could be competitive for those white, older, small c conservative votes that were need in the rust belt.

I don't know if he wins or not, but he was their best shot.

In the current climate. It makes absolute sense to at least right the ship. They can deal with bailing out the water and setting up the pumps once they've achieved that.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

Yeah I'm not a particular fan of Biden. One weakness of the Left is allowing fragmentation and refusing to hold one's nose in an election. TBH I don't think Biden particular wanted to run but it turns out he was the most popular candidate and most viable, something I'm sure they made completely sure of before he entered the race.

Biden, the left! I think not! He is funny in spitting image though

20silkcut

At 77 Biden hardly has a long political career ahead of him. This is all about getting Trump out.
That is the only issue for a lot of people in this election.

8-10

20silkcut wrote: »

At 77 Biden hardly has a long political career ahead of him. This is all about getting Trump out.
That is the only issue for a lot of people in this election.

Every Presidential election that includes an incumbent running for a second term is essentially a referendum on his performance.

People pretend it's a free choice between two candidates but it's really not. It's 4 more years v change

Wanderer78

8-10 wrote:

People pretend it's a free choice between two candidates but it's really not. It's 4 more years v change

Free choice, in American elections!

20silkcut

8-10 wrote: »

Every Presidential election that includes an incumbent running for a second term is essentially a referendum on his performance.

People pretend it's a free choice between two candidates but it's really not. It's 4 more years v change

That’s why Biden was a good choice by the democrats they are not asking people to back a brave new radical vision or a new era of democratic dominance in the form of a young dynamic Obama/JFK type candidate. They are basically selling a break from the madness of the trump era. Breathing space. They have made this a referendum on Trump by running such an inoffensive candidate against him. They can catch a lot of moderate conservatives who don’t like trump with that strategy.

Fr Tod Umptious

20silkcut wrote: »

That’s why Biden was a good choice by the democrats they are not asking people to back a brave new radical vision or a new era of democratic dominance in the form of a young dynamic Obama/JFK type candidate. They are basically selling a break from the madness of the trump era. Breathing space. They can catch a lot of moderate conservatives who don’t like trump with that strategy.

Yes
Hopefully it will lead the way to a more balanced, less confrontational, less abrasive, conservative running in 2024.

Kiith

Anyone staying up to watch this tonight? I know it's unlikely to be decided before tomorrow morning (at the earliest), barring a landslide, but tempted to stay up and watch the footage.

VinLieger

Kiith wrote: »

Anyone staying up to watch this tonight? I know it's unlikely to be decided before tomorrow morning (at the earliest), barring a landslide, but tempted to stay up and watch the footage.

I was but i dont think its worth it this year, its gonna be a mess for days.