US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

StringerBell

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Ohio tightening a lot more quickly than I thought it would.

That it's competitive augers well, at some point we do need to turn a being competitive and outperforming into a flip of course and Ohio was always gonna be a stretch but he is performing well right now.

NC and Ohio will likely be very tight at the finish.

Ohio 51.7-47.1 with 60% counted.

Exclamation Marc

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If you have access to data you can look at where the votes are from. So even if Trump is ahead if he's behind where he needs to be to match a prediction of losing then he's definitely lost. So in some cases rural votes are declared first which gives an early lead to the Republicans.

Thanks, appreciate the explanation!

This is it

130k difference in NC, can Biden hold out

Blanco100

Biden needed to be further ahead in Ohio.

FFS its going to be another 4 years of the donald.

Blue mirage isnt as prominent as we expected. Voting on the day is going to favour republicans.

namloc1980

Deleted User wrote: »

Ohio 51.7-47.1 with 60% counted.

Biden was 10 points up an hour ago. The early vote lead is evaporating as today's votes get counted.

Exclamation Marc

Texas now 1300 votes apart with Trump ahead.

Georgia 57-42 with 36% reporting. Well that was a waste of money.

johnmcdnl

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Can someone explain how some states with only some votes noted as counted are declaring one way or the other?

Is it essentially precedent based?

For example, Arkansas has declared for Trump with only 14% of votes counted. Massachusetts declaring for Biden with 3% counted.

Basically yes. Experts in each state looking at historical data and known exit poll type information and when they are confident how the final result will be they call it.

https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/how-we-call-races

Why they feel need to declare it before the votes are counted rather than just saying 'projected' I don't know.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Biden still should win, still strong favourite.

StringerBell

namloc1980 wrote: »

Biden was 10 points up an hour ago. The early vote lead is evaporating as today's votes get counted.

Sometimes it's more instructive to look at the actual votes rather than the percentage. The early vote in Ohio wasn't as pronounced as the NC so I expect NC to come down to the wire as trump gains ground all the time.

Wouldn't give up on Georgia yet actually, good lead for trump right now but some countries have very few votes in.

Blanco100

Looks like Trump got more postal/early votes than expected.

Mr.Nice Guy

CNN are making out that everything is going great for Biden but it feels like it's in danger of all going wrong?

murpho999

Widye wrote: »

But its creeping in and perhaps they are skeptical of those who say it isn't.

It's not creeping in any way.

There's nothing near socialism in US.

Health care is not sociialism. Even so some social policies are good.

J2CVC

J2CVC wrote: »

Bookies results are the clearest sign, the exchanges especially.

Almost €400 million has been matched on the market on Betfair. Experts move this market, not punters. If something significant happens somewhere this is the first place you'll see it.

Biden still favourite but less so than he was in the last few days. Currently:

Joe: 1.81
Donald: 2.22

Joe: 2.02
Donald: 1.96

Trump now gone favourite, just slightly. It's been swinging his way for the last two hours. It's neck and neck.

marno21

Trump now favourite on Betfair Exchange.

Francie Barrett

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1323806449777168384

There was a lot of talk about a 'red mirage' but I'm worried we might be witnessing a blue one as it stands.

I keep remembering what year we're in. I have a bad feeling about this.

It's pretty clear now that the polls that had Biden +8 have gotten this badly wrong.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will be where this election is decided.

Kiith

They are certainly not as confident as they were. If Biden doesn't flip Ohio or NC, think it's Trump for another 4 years.

Brian?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Georgia 57-42 with 36% reporting. Well that was a waste of money.

Very few votes counted in Atlanta and it’s suburbs. It’s way too early.

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323811716204027904

That's not good.

namloc1980

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

CNN are making out that everything is going great for Biden but it feels like it's in danger of all going wrong?

Yeah it's definitely moving back to Trump in the last hour. The big leads in Ohio and North Carolina are quickly evaporating.

shocksy

MattS1 wrote: »

Biden still should win, still strong favourite.

No were near a strong favourite.

Canice Picklington

Virginia is not looking good either. Trump is running ahead of 2016 in most counties.

Manic Moran

Good lord, it's impossible to keep up with you guys. 70 pages in 4 hours when I was out for the evening.

Relax, do what I'm doing. Take it easy, go to bed when you're tired. When you wake up in the morning, someone will have won, or someone won't have yet (more likely). Plus the senate. Life will go on.

Inquitus

This is going to end up a coin toss and realise everyone's worst fears about US Democracy in the clusterfeck that follows.

Faugheen

People need to remember that different states are doing things different. Some are counting early voting first, some doing mail-in and others doing Election Day.

It’s a minefield. There’s nothing you can call at the moment bar Florida probably.

Vital Transformation

More uncounted votes remain in Ohio counties that Clinton won in 2016. Biden thrashing Trump in the counties with the biggest cities, Colombus and Cleveland. Also a rout in the one with 4th biggest city, Toledo.

murpho999

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

CNN are making out that everything is going great for Biden but it feels like it's in danger of all going wrong?

He did a section about 15 minutes ago showing how vote could go.

And it showed what Trump had in 2016 and how little wiggle room he has and basically if he loses Ohio and North Carolina then Trump is in big trouble

Thought it was good how he did it and showed how little options Trump has and Biden has more avenues to the White House.

Larbre34

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323811716204027904

That's not good.

John King "that's not gonna happen"

Brian?

I’m going to bed. I expect to wake up to Trump getting 4 more years.