US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

letowski

Polling companies are going to be out of business after this.

StringerBell

Inquitus wrote: »

Biden's not performing like a candidate who is going to overcome the 8% margin Trump won with in Ohio in 2016. Biden will end up needing to run the board through Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Depends on how you see the remaining 60% of the early vote that's to be counted in Ohio breaks, and how much of a gap he will need to close once the election day vote has all been counted.

I think Biden is gonna win Wisconsin and Michigan alright and looks to be in good shape in Pennsylvania, only 11% of the early vote in Michigan and plenty of vote left to count in and around the urban centres before someone throws the current numbers at me

0gac3yjefb5sv7

J2CVC wrote: »

If the experts did it wouldn't be 15/8

Why did Trump start outsider so if they knew so much?

Widye

virginmediapls wrote: »

The fact that a misogynistic, racist tosspot who can barely string a sentence together is the best "non-PC", "non-hypocritical" candidate that could be put forward is still pretty damning.

The media thanks you very much for this provided opinion

omerin

The best thing to happen to Trump was the polls, seems to have got his vote out. Biden is only Obama v0.5 and we all know he was as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike, all polish and no substance.

Its going to be an interesting next 4 years, wonder how the stock market will take it tomorrow

fiveleavesleft

No dog in the fight to be honest, just always enjoy US election night. Hope your having a good one lads:D;):D

StringerBell

signostic wrote: »

Commentators on CNN becoming inncreasinly despondent...

Yeah I think they are pretty shocked at trump taking Alabama alright.

Exclamation Marc

Inquitus wrote: »

Biden's not performing like a candidate who is going to overcome the 8% margin Trump won with in Ohio in 2016. Biden will end up needing to run the board through Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

I'm not doubting performance in any way.

But the incessant "Ohio is done" posts are just boring to read, no matter which way you read it.

Not aimed at you btw.

Akabusi

What has happened with the Florida counting, was flying earlier and seems stuck at 92% now

Real Donald Trump

virginmediapls wrote: »

The fact that a misogynistic, racist tosspot who can barely string a sentence together is the best "non-PC", "non-hypocritical" candidate that could be put forward is still pretty damning.

It's the way it is.. 2 poor choices tbh, but the orange man is still the better choice overall

Widye

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

It's the way it is.. 2 poor choices tbh, but the orange man is still the better choice overall

Absolutely ðŸ‘

Blanco100

J2CVC wrote: »

If the experts did it wouldn't be 15/8

The odds will swing back again.

Lots of confusion around order of the count. Big presumption that early vote (which favours Biden) is counted first in all states.

Its not in all cases. Saying that, big presumption also that Biden will take most early votes in all states too.

vafankillar

i was under the impression trump needs pennsylvania to win and he's doing terrible with election day votes counted first, no? meaning it's not going to get better?

signostic

Akabusi wrote: »

What has happened with the Florida counting, was flying earlier and seems stuck at 92% now

Postal votes??

Francie Barrett

letowski wrote: »

Polling companies are going to be out of business after this.

538 should shut down after this.

J2CVC

MattS1 wrote: »

Why did Trump start outsider so if they knew so much?

All the available information pointed that way. And the market is not always right. But it'll be right more than you (or me, or that lad on the telly).

I hope they're wrong again, but it's not looking good. Biden needs an unexpected result somewhere.

FatRat

MattS1 wrote: »

Why did Trump start outsider so if they knew so much?

Because they didn't have the information available now of the millions of votes that have been counted.

Projections, probabilities, likelihood etc. Is determine by the information you have at a given time. Can't be done any other way. Polls were mostly what was used and like another poster said, they should all lose their jobs after this.

completedit

Shelga wrote: »

I couldn't give a s**t about some working class white man in Pennsylvania whingeing because he's not the centre of the universe anymore.

I care about Trump pulling them out of the Paris Agreement.

The fact that this is remotely close is just horrific.

Think I'll go to bed.

Such concern. Such empathy. Wow

Canice Picklington

StringerBell wrote: »

Depends on how you see the remaining 60% of the early vote that's to be counted in Ohio breaks, and how much of a gap he will need to close once the election day vote has all been counted.

I think Biden is gonna win Wisconsin and Michigan alright and looks to be in good shape in Pennsylvania, only 11% of the early vote in Michigan and plenty of vote left to count in and around the urban centres before someone throws the current numbers at me

At this stage I think Trump could well take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and possibly Virginia.

Personally I think something very strange is going on.

MyPeopleDrankTheSoup

Francie Barrett wrote: »

538 should shut down after this.

Fact. Nate silver needs to get a new career

Akabusi

signostic wrote: »

Postal votes??

8% in postal votes could be enough to turn it for Biden

virginmediapls

Canice Picklington wrote: »

At this stage I think Trump could well take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and possibly Virginia.

Personally I think something very strange is going on.

Strange in the conspiratorial sense?

FrostyJack

This is grim, I have put the drink away and put on the comfort food. Still not all lost though.

TallyRand

Larbre34 wrote: »

Screenshot.

You’re jumping in like a rabid dog, it’s been explained a couple of times that exchange markets are a very good (better than polls for sure) indicator.

If you don’t understand it that’s fine but stop hopping on every comment, very likely trump wins ........almost, almost makes me smile the way a lot of people are carrying on

J2CVC

Blanco100 wrote: »

The odds will swing back again.

Lots of confusion around order of the count. Big presumption that early vote (which favours Biden) is counted first in all states.

Its not in all cases. Saying that, big presumption also that Biden will take most early votes in all states too.

Well you can literally make a fortune then if you put your money where your mouth is.




Betfair:

Biden: 3.7
Trump: 1.36

It's going terribly for Biden.

Approved User Assesment

Early still, but the Donald chap will win the POTUS2020.

StringerBell

Canice Picklington wrote: »

At this stage I think Trump could well take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and possibly Virginia.

Personally I think something very strange is going on.

He's doing pretty badly in Pennsylvania, and that's with election day vote I believe so it doesn't look great for him but you could well be right.

I'd be amazed if he takes Virginia and I really don't see him taking Michigan either tbh but long way to go.

He's actually got a good lead in the popular vote right now for example but we know he's gonna lose that by quite some margin.

Real Donald Trump

FrostyJack wrote: »

This is grim, I have put the drink away and put on the comfort food. Still not all lost though.

<<<<

Stick with the booze, this night is huge

All_in_Flynn

Lol this is mad. This is not going like I thought it would. I'm really starting to struggle to see how Biden wins now. Exchanges are a massive indicator.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

all of our Whiskeys are in that case.

John Jameson wasn't a papist by any stretch.

Well, that Thanks checks out...

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D