US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Larbre34

vafankillar wrote: »

he may do but they expected some landslide bluewave :rolleyes:

Taking the White House, Senate and House will probably make them feel ok about that, not to mention a **** ton of State houses and State courts.

Real Donald Trump

This is really 50-50, betting odds all over the place

Latest betting odds


Trump 4/11
Biden 12/5

Biden should flip one Nebraska district as well. Christ it's going to be tight.

letowski

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

This is really 50-50, betting odds all over the place

Latest betting odds


Trump 4/11
Biden 12/5

This is such a tight race. Its going to come down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. And both those we can't get a read yet.

Very exciting and nervy

BonnieSituation

440Hertz wrote: »

Trump and the GOP certainly won’t deliver for the Rust Belt, but the problem is neither have the Democratic Party, who took their loyalty for granted.

The Dems have drifted way too far to the right on socioeconomic policies, while being entirely focused on trendy urban areas and that’s being reflected in their vote.

For example, they should be able to get rust belt and agricultural votes in a bigger way than they do, but they haven’t been listening for many years.

Trump is just a grifter and told the Rustbelt what they want to hear. He’s no ability to deliver any of it and most of it is totally contrary to GOP free market ideology, which would let those areas die off as they’re no longer economically viable.

The Dems would be far better off not responding to the GOP talking points, which are mostly about religious conservative issues and guns and so on, and instead just present an alternative and positive plan and actually engage with people, beyond the bubble.

The GOP has successfully framed everything around a largely false culture war and they’re thriving on it. The Democrats keep feeding the troll and engaging with negative campaigns and tribalism. They should be trying to push out a clean, fresh alternative view of what America could be.

If they win this they can.

interlocked

John King is some pro, the amount of knowledge and able to deliver it on live tv without missing a beat, ah it's a pleasure to watch, ( must have been a quarterback in college with the size of his hands..)

12gauge dave

FatRat wrote: »

For anyone interested, Steven Crowder on Youtube (Big trump guy) currently has Don Junior on a facetime live from the white house

An independent Youtuber providing better election coverage than all the major media.

Edit; just to be clear it's obvioualy sickly pro trump. I'm not saying it's better material, just better access

Thanks good viewing.

BonnieSituation

FatRat wrote: »

For anyone interested, Steven Crowder on Youtube (Big trump guy) currently has Don Junior on a facetime live from the white house

An independent Youtuber providing better election coverage than all the major media.

Edit; just to be clear it's obvioualy sickly pro trump. I'm not saying it's better material, just better access

Who wants or needs to hear from a coke-addled Junior though?

Manic Moran

rosser44 wrote: »

But you have to agree that the idea that trump is going to bring back manufacturing to these poor white areas is laughable - what company is going to pay 10x the wages that they are currently paying in Asia or Africa etc.

What are the better options that the Democrats are offering them?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden-analysis/bidens-bid-to-attract-rust-belt-workers-faces-troubles-in-his-own-backyard-idUSKBN1W2110

Also coal mining is done for, mines in Appalachia are closed for good due to renewables getting cheaper and cheaper.

True. So how has Biden earned their vote?
If neither of the two candidates has a viable, acceptable proposal, maybe they're making the decision on the next stage of their hierarchy of needs, wants and morals?

Real Donald Trump

interlocked wrote: »

John King is some pro, the amount of knowledge and able to deliver it on live tv without missing a beat, ah it's a pleasure to watch, ( must have been a quarterback in college with the size of his hands..)

Even if he's biased I like him, him and Wolf are legends tbh.. not so biased like the majority of that crowd on that network...

440Hertz

rosser44 wrote: »

But you have to agree that the idea that trump is going to bring back manufacturing to these poor white areas is laughable - what company is going to pay 10x the wages that they are currently paying in Asia or Africa etc.

Also coal mining is done for, mines in Appalachia are closed for good due to renewables getting cheaper and cheaper.

I'm from a rural part of midwest Ireland not a million miles away from the likes of the rustbelt - they are areas that are forgotten and hyper capitalistic policies do nothing for these people, they are collateral damage for the capitalistic machine

Edit - I want to clarify that I'm no leftist free money woo merchant, I think the social welfare system in ireland is already too generous

We did plenty of it in the past:

Bord na Mona, producing uneconomic power from an extremely environmentally unfriendly fuel to support jobs.
Irish Steel - a state owned steel recycling plant in a location with no iron ore, limited access to scrap metal and extremely expensive electricity to run arc furnaces.
The Shannon stopover - forcing transatlantic flights to stop at an airport they didn’t really want to fly to because it was once a transatlantic flying boat port.

That’s the kind of bonkers stuff Trump would be headed for and it would never be supported by the free marketeers (liberals in the economic sense) in the GOP.

Real Donald Trump

letowski wrote: »

This is such a tight race. Its going to come down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. And both those we can't get a read yet.

Very exciting and nervy

Get the whisky out :pac:

dark crystal

https://twitter.com/PaulBlu/status/1323836714012577793

Absentee votes still to be counted in the three key states.

It's going to be a marathon, not a sprint people!

BonnieSituation

That Biden lead in Iowa is very interesting.

Real Donald Trump

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That Biden lead in Iowa is very interesting.

This race is going down to the wire

quokula

Manic Moran wrote: »

What are the better options that the Democrats are offering them?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden-analysis/bidens-bid-to-attract-rust-belt-workers-faces-troubles-in-his-own-backyard-idUSKBN1W2110



True. So how has Biden earned their vote?
If neither of the two candidates has a viable, acceptable proposal, maybe they're making the decision on the next stage of their hierarchy of needs, wants and morals?

The argument has gone from “sure Trump is morally repugnant, but he’s good for the economy” to “sure Trump offers nothing to these voters economically, but neither does Biden probably so they should vote for Trump based on his morals”

BonnieSituation

dark crystal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBlu/status/1323836714012577793

Absentee votes still to be counted in the three key states.

It's going to be a marathon, not a sprint people!

It's just that we all could have done with Biden winning FL so we could go to bed.

Brussels Sprout

This is a lot tighter then I expected it to be. I think this has the potential to go on for days

dark crystal

NY Times calling Virginia for Biden

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-virginia.html

murpho999

https://www.270towin.com/

I completed the predictor above.

When I complete all I gave the following to Biden

California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada , Arizona, Colorado, Hawaii, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island & Conneticut, Massachusets, Delaware, & DC ,
This gives Biden 237.

Excluding Pennsylvania, Virginia & North Carolina, I gave the rest to Trump to total 253.

The 3 states total 48 votes.

It's going to be tight.

MrMusician18

rosser44 wrote: »

Well he is the most likely person to start it in the last 70 years, and I include a drunk messy Khrushchev in that estimation

To be fair, that's one element of his record I do give him credit for. He's not involved the US in any foreign adventure.

letowski

What Trump did in Mahoning County (Youngstown), Ohio was extraordinary. Obama won the county by +27. It hasn't been won by a Republican since 1972. That's kind of like what the Troys did in Blyth Valley 12 months ago in the UK election.

Its been noted on this forum, that with Mahoning County bordering Pennsylvania, that this will be a good data point for Trump in PA.

rosser44

Manic Moran wrote: »

What are the better options that the Democrats are offering them?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden-analysis/bidens-bid-to-attract-rust-belt-workers-faces-troubles-in-his-own-backyard-idUSKBN1W2110



True. So how has Biden earned their vote?
If neither of the two candidates has a viable, acceptable proposal, maybe they're making the decision on the next stage of their hierarchy of needs, wants and morals?

I'm not saying Biden is offering them anything - Bernie is the candidate who was fighting for them.

I think myself that Bernie is the candidate that would be best for average Americans - and that is the reason he would never get the nod. I'm not under any illusion that the DEM caucus is any less in the pocket of big business than the GOP, its just different corporations that lean one way or the other; private prisons will never back dems etc

I'm saying how can they swallow the blatant lies trump peddles - he is a snake oil merchant and I can't understand how people can't see through his "believe me... people are saying" schtick

partyguinness

Fox have called Arizona for Biden.

Basically no results until Friday with PA and Wisconsin not counting until then.

Trump looks good for NC.

Deeper Blue

Do people realistically think some of the US pharma/tech companies could pull out of Ireland if Trump gets back in?

Manic Moran

quokula wrote: »

The argument has gone from “sure Trump is morally repugnant, but he’s good for the economy” to “sure Trump offers nothing to these voters economically, but neither does Biden probably so they should vote for Trump based on his morals”

Quok, you're inferring too much from the discussion. Rosser asked specifically what Trump could do for the employment industries in Appalachia and why folks there would still vote for him. Not the economy as a whole, not even as a relative case for what Biden would do for the economy of Appalachia, just why they would vote for him. If, in the specific case of an Appalachian coal miner (not iron miner, auto worker, or plumber), neither Trump nor Biden has provided a reasonable plan, then that miner is probably voting on another basis.

12gauge dave

This is looking alot better for Biden now.

partyguinness

There is no doubt that it is looking good for Trump.

I would sleep a lot easier if I was Trump voter.

Bowlardo

El Sueño wrote: »

Do people realistically think some of the US pharma/tech companies could pull out of Ireland if Trump gets back in?

Not a hope