US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

ELM327 wrote: »

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

Giving most states that are tagged as red by AP currently to Trump, we get a 280 to 260 result. A 20pt delta.

Right now Biden is on 238 with Nevada pretty much a given , so 244 really.

Trump is on 213 and likely to take NC so that brings him to 227.


Trump probably takes Georgia as well , but it will be very close , so he's maybe on 243 , leaving the 3 Mid-West States to go.

That leaves 46 EC votes in play - Both candidates need at least two out of the 3 to win.

Biden has moved ahead in WI and MI and PA are both absolutely still there for the taking. They are now counting the mail-in ballots there and Biden had a clear lead in that category in both States so barring successful legal action from Trump , Biden has pretty decent odds of taking at least one of them if not both.

It is still all to play for , but once it hits the court rooms , who knows how it might end up.

bennyl10

Asylum15 wrote: »

Correct, Green Bay is mostly republican from what I see.

not according to the NYT

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323924773840343041?s=20

MJohnston

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Its a very very good indicator .........

No it’s not it’s been rollercoastering all night! That alone should tell you that it’s a reflector of the race not a predictor.

Brian?

ELM327 wrote: »

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

Giving most states that are tagged as red by AP currently to Trump, we get a 280 to 260 result. A 20pt delta.

20pt delta? What are you talking about?

I still think Trump is looking likely, but it’s matter of one or 2 states.

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'd have thought GB would be red? (Purely basing this on the 100% white, flag waving NFL fans)

Green Bay city narrowly went for Clinton, the County went for Trump. Its the city that's left to report

BonnieSituation

Well, that has gone to the 2020 script.

I must send for the head of the scriptwriter.

bennyl10

And Biden is still slight favourite to take Georgia

I dont see who the Trump supporters can in any way claim victory at this stage?

thefridge2006

MJohnston wrote: »

No it’s not it’s been rollercoastering all night! That alone should tell you that it’s a reflector of the race not a predictor.

Yes and the whole thing was a rollercoaster.... so they were right.......

SteelyDanJalapeno

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Its a very very good indicator .........

It's really not, Trump was 4/1 hours before he won 4 years ago, how is that a good indicator

Brian?

bennyl10 wrote: »

And Biden is still slight favourite to take Georgia

I dont see who the Trump supporters can in any way claim victory at this stage?

Is Biden fav for Georgia? I don’t see it

MJohnston

Decision Desk has it 49.48 Biden to 49.04 Trump, and that’s without the early vote counts in Kenosha county. This will be TIGHT.

Cody montana

bennyl10 wrote: »

And Biden is still slight favourite to take Georgia

I dont see who the Trump supporters can in any way claim victory at this stage?

Well they’ve yelled the same catchphrases for 4 years, why change now?

BonnieSituation

bennyl10 wrote: »

And Biden is still slight favourite to take Georgia

I dont see who the Trump supporters can in any way claim victory at this stage?

By virtue of being Trump supporters and ignoring due process.

Asylum15

bennyl10 wrote: »

not according to the NYT

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323924773840343041?s=20

Ah, seems I made a mistake.

There was a fella on Sky earlier that said it'd go down to the ''red'' city.

MJohnston

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Yes and the whole thing was a rollercoaster.... so they were right.......

Stop being ignorant. You’re trying to use it as a prediction tool but it’s not. As you say in your post, the odds are changing to reflect the narrative only, and they’re predicting nothing.

Christy42

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Its a very very good indicator .........

I mean they have only flipped about 3 times. They will be right in the end but only because they keep changing their answer.

Plus if you wanted to bet big money on the election you could simply bet on the world markets like renewables, the dollar and oil.

ancapailldorcha

Serious posts only please. A post has been deleted.

Francie Barrett

What a rollercoaster. After the Florida bloodbath, I thought Biden was done, but he has rescued things here. If Biden can take Wisconsin, that reads well across for Michigan and assuming no other shocks, that is mission accomplished.

bennyl10

Brian? wrote: »

Is Biden fav for Georgia? I don’t see it

Lead is dropped and Cobb/Fluton/DeKalb are all still to report mail-ins in huge Dem areas

Not a slam dunk but he's getting closer

el Fenomeno

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It is still all to play for , but once it hits the court rooms , who knows how it might end up.

What can Trump's play be in court - challenge the legitimacy of the mail in numbers, claim fraud somewhere? Will he need to have evidence of that (and will he have it)?

Sorry, just curious as to what happens with the threat of the Supreme Court from Trump.

Larbre34

WI: Trump is +100k, but there are 700k votes still to count
PA: Trump is +700k, but 1.8m to count
MI: Trump is +300k, but 1.8m to count
NC: Trump is +77k, but 300k to count
GA: Trump is +100k, but 450k to count

Keep in mind, those are mostly early/mail votes that favour Biden.

elefant

Larbre34 wrote: »

WI: Trump is +100k, but there are 700k votes still to count

Biden is ahead by <10k in Wisconsin at the moment.

MJohnston

Larbre34 wrote: »

WI: Trump is +100k, but there are 700k votes still to count
PA: Trump is +700k, but 1.8m to count
MI: Trump is +300k, but 1.8m to count
NC: Trump is +77k, but 300k to count
GA: Trump is +100k, but 450k to count

Keep in mind, those are mostly early/mail votes that favour Biden.

Those WI numbers are a good bit out of date now.

Quin_Dub

Brian? wrote: »

Is Biden fav for Georgia? I don’t see it

I didn't think so either, but looking at the county level detail on FOX it seems that the two remaining districts to declare - DeKalb and Fulton are both heavily Democrat with 75/80% of the vote.

Not sure how many more votes are to be counted or if the running totals from those two counties are included in the overall count yet.

So maybe?

everlast75

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323926165590052864?s=20

JFC - what an utter shambles!

Faugheen

Brian? wrote: »

Is Biden fav for Georgia? I don’t see it

A large chunk of the votes they’re waiting for are mail-in ballots from Atlanta.

Biden is absolutely a narrow favourite, but not by much.

Larbre34

The Supreme Court doesn't worry me, they'll adopt the same logic as we've seen in the lower courts, 'if the votes are there, count them all'

Besides, I'm quite sure the learned jurists of the SC would be quite happy to see the back of a threat to the Constitution like Trump, even the members he appointed. Frankly, they can protect a conservative position on matters before them irrespective of whether he is President.

extra gravy

"Trump's lead is now down to 70,000 votes statewide in Michigan. Wayne County has only reported 53%. Biden is about to stack up a couple hundred thousand votes there alone."

dogbert27

I really want Biden to win, or really anyone but Trump but I had a feeling yesterday this wasn't going to be so easy as some people thought it would be for Biden.

Winning a second term and knowing he can do what ever the hell he wants is actually scarier prospect than Trumps first term.

I think America will descend even further in to civil division.

MJohnston

Larbre34 wrote: »

The Supreme Court doesn't worry me, they'll adopt the same logic as we've seen in the lower courts, 'if the votes are there, count them all'

Besides, I'm quite sure the learned jurists of the SC would be quite happy to see the back of a threat to the Constitution like Trump, even the members he appointed. Frankly, they can protect a conservative position on matters before them irrespective of whether he is President.

Yes, it looks like a Senate majority is probably still in Republican hands, and I think the conservative Justices will feel more connection to Senate Rs than Trump. They’ll not have his back unless it’s very very close.