US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

circadian

everlast75 wrote: »

Calling Matt Gaets Rick Gates, callin Lil Pump, Little Pimp, not being able to walk down a ramp properly, taking two hands to sip a glass of water.

Only one person has credible medical records and Trump isn't him.

We could play this all day.


Anyhoo - he was on Fox this morning sounding very very deflated.

He sounds rough, definitely deflated but sounds like he's got a cold or hasn't shaken the Covid completely.

Tell me how

circadian wrote: »

He sounds rough, definitely deflated but sounds like he's got a cold or hasn't shaken the Covid completely.

Surely that guy can't end the day winning the election to remain President of the US.

He sounded like he had spent the night drinking (I know he doesn't drink) after being heavily defeated.

How many Republicans listening to that over breakfast would be enthused to go and vote?

Francie Barrett

There's a live data feed of the turnout in Florida, here's the specific link to Pinellas County, which switched red last time and is viewed as a bellweather.

Democrats had a lead before polling stations opened, but it's shrinking all morning. Democrats percentage of the votes cast is 38.5% as of typing this.

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

In 2016, Republicans cast 38.7% of the votes in Florida last time, Democrats cast 38.1%

My initial read is that both the Republicans and Democrats have both been able to get the vote out with neither side appearing to benefit significantly so far. It looks like Florida will be decided by the non-affiliated voters.

briany

Francie Barrett wrote: »

There's a live data feed of the turnout in Florida, here's the specific link to Pinellas County, which switched red last time and is viewed as a bellweather.

Democrats had a lead before polling stations opened, but it's shrinking all morning. Democrats percentage of the votes cast is 38.5% as of typing this.

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

In 2016, Republicans cast 38.7% of the votes in Florida last time, Democrats cast 38.1%

My initial read is that both the Republicans and Democrats have both been able to get the vote out with neither side appearing to benefit significantly so far. It looks like Florida will be decided by the non-affiliated voters.

We don't know if Democrats vote for the Democrat or the Republicans for the Republican. Certainly they tend to lean very heavily for their party's candidate in most situations, but with the number of prominent Republicans publicly declaring an, if only temporary, support of Biden, we see that people can break from party affiliation.

Given Republican tactics to suppress the vote, it appears they agree with what Conservative activist Paul Weyrich said in the 1980s,

"I don't want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of the people. They never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."

So, my suspicion is that a high turnout does not bode well for Trump.

Inquitus

What time should I set my alarm for in the hope of an earlyish result? 2am? 3am?

everlast75

Inquitus wrote: »

What time should I set my alarm for in the hope of an earlyish result? 2am? 3am?

which day?

An Ciarraioch

Inquitus wrote: »

What time should I set my alarm for in the hope of an earlyish result? 2am? 3am?

By 1 a.m, the earliest data from Florida, North Carolina and Georgia will be in - unlikely to be a clear winner in the first, but if Biden wins any of the three, then most of the swing states will follow suit.

Tell me how

Inquitus wrote: »

What time should I set my alarm for in the hope of an earlyish result? 2am? 3am?

Hard to plan to that level of accuracy.

Good guidelines here.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/02/us-election-2020-presidential-what-time-results-guide

TP_CM

Tell me how wrote: »

Surely that guy can't end the day winning the election to remain President of the US.

He sounded like he had spent the night drinking (I know he doesn't drink) after being heavily defeated.

How many Republicans listening to that over breakfast would be enthused to go and vote?

I think the vast majority of them would know he traveled 5 states in the space of 24 hours. He probably got about 5 hours sleep in the last 48.

BonnieSituation

letowski wrote: »

Steve Schale did a very good numbers breakdown of the state of play in Florida heading into tomorrow:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/11/2/here-we-are.html

A worthwhile read of the voter demographics in Florida and what to look out for. He is a good follow on Twitter, for people looking for early insights tomorrow.

That was a great read.

Thoroughly recommended for those who haven't read it.

Francie Barrett

briany wrote: »

We don't know if Democrats vote for the Democrat or the Republicans for the Republican. Certainly they tend to lean very heavily for their party's candidate in most situations, but with the number of prominent Republicans publicly declaring an, if only temporary, support of Biden, we see that people can break from party affiliation.

Given Republican tactics to suppress the vote, it appears they agree with what Conservative activist Paul Weyrich said in the 1980s,

"I don't want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of the people. They never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."

So, my suspicion is that a high turnout does not bode well for Trump.

4% of Republicans voted for Clinton in 2016, 5% of Democrats voted for Trump. The net result was they probably cancelled each other out. I really struggle to see too many Trump voters in 2016 switching sides this time. We heard the same thing last time, how some Republicans were disgusted with Trump and would switch. It never materialized then, and I don't see it happening now.

The key is going to be the non affiliated voters. In 2016 they were pretty evenly split between Trump and Clinton. In a tight race like Florida, a 10% swing here could be just enough to flip Florida for Biden.



This is obviously very early days, but the trend so far doesn't look too dissimilar to 2016.

BonnieSituation

ELM327 wrote: »

Luckily for you there is
https://www.politicalcompass.org/

So you have no specific definition in mind when you (over) use that word. I guess that's good to know.

duploelabs

ELM327 wrote: »

Showing that he wouldnt be an antisemite. Same as the relocation to Jerusalem would show.
In fact Trump and his base would be closer to Zionists than antisemites.

Yes, calling people who said 'Jews will not replace us' fine people is certainly antisemitic

BonnieSituation

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well we don’t get nbc or msnbc or Fox in Ireland. I’m sure all Channels will have an option on their dedicated apps(cnn did in the 2018 mid term elections) so we shall see.

All of the main US networks will likely have a dedicated Youtube channel.

Sky News and RTÉ will probably use a CBS/NBC feed at some point too.

I have a Roku with the CBS app and an android IPTV box so I'm well covered with options.

DK224

The early data from Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona is showing an absolutely massive GOP turnout. They lead by 9k votes across Florida, the 117k early voting cushion the Dems had was wiped out in 2 hours this morning.

AllForIt

There was a guy interviewed on UK radio last night who was involved with the only polling in the US that called it correctly in 2016.

On the question of the Dems taking Texas, (some are saying by a landslide) that he never heard anything more ridiculous, there isn't a hope of anything like that happening. He lives in Texas.

bennyl10

DK224 wrote: »

The early data from Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona is showing an absolutely massive GOP turnout. They lead by 9k votes across Florida, the 117k early voting cushion the Dems had was wiped out in 2 hours this morning.

Any link?

Clearly not counting mail or early too!

Florida is gonna be a very interesting watch tonight!

SimonTemplar

The Michigan Attorney General mentioned on Twitter of numerous reports of robocalls in Flint saying that people should vote tomorrow because the lines are too long.

An obvious attempt to suppress the vote.

Professor Moriarty

DK224 wrote: »

The early data from Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona is showing an absolutely massive GOP turnout. They lead by 9k votes across Florida, the 117k early voting cushion the Dems had was wiped out in 2 hours this morning.

Would you have a link for this?

droidus

Florida is running pretty much as expected.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323655599553466370

BonnieSituation

Tell me how wrote: »

Surely that guy can't end the day winning the election to remain President of the US.

He sounded like he had spent the night drinking (I know he doesn't drink) after being heavily defeated.

How many Republicans listening to that over breakfast would be enthused to go and vote?

I read a great Twitter thread about Trump's teetotalism. Like most things, it's bull.

https://twitter.com/CaslerNoel/status/1322242008350662656?s=09

---

In other news, voting machines have gone down in Spalding County, Georgia.

https://twitter.com/cbs46/status/1323616434816245761?s=19

Seems they're gone down in quite a few places over the last few hours.

seamus

bennyl10 wrote: »

Any link?

Clearly not counting mail or early too!

Florida is gonna be a very interesting watch tonight!

There was a big discrepancy between the two types of voter in terms of the early voting. Democrats in general cast a lot more mail and early ballots than Republicans.

As a result there will be a lot of downbeat discussion about Democrats "losing their lead", but this is to be expected - the Republican voters still exist, they just hadn't voted yet. It's not like the Democrats were going to get all of these mail-in votes on top of their usual tallies. No matter how much Trump claimed that's what would happen.

It's really the non-partisan voters that will decide Florida. Trump won 2016 by just over 1%, 100,000 votes. Around 2-3m voters in Florida are considered non-partisan, so they're the ones who decide.
Poking around at turnout numbers between the partisan voters won't really tell you much, IMHO.

Manic Moran

And voting done. Voter #84 in my center, at 09:48. In and out in about ten minutes, five of which was spent staring at the screen thinking "Do I really want to vote for this person?"

I have never before been presented with such a God-awful selection of candidates to choose from, and I'm not talking about just the legislature-level candidates either, though I'm not pleased by them (Worse, unlike in 2016, the third party candidates provide no source of succor). The big argument for the school district superintendent isn't anything to do with budgets, but sex education policies. Much though I hate the idea of the candidate for Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme court being nominated after a primary system by the two major parties, I'm sorry, Libertarians, I'm not voting for your guy who, though a lawyer, has never been a judge before. Similarly, though I may have issues with my county sheriff, also selected by the Democrat primary system, at least he's a lawman unlike the Republican who has never, to my knowledge, worn a uniform of any sort.
I have also learned that the Texas State Railroad Commission hasn't regulated railroads since 2005, and is now purely a regulatory agency for the oil and gas industry.

With selections like the ones I had, no wonder voter turnout can be low.

For the curious, my county sample ballot. https://www.bexar.org/DocumentCenter/View/4570/Generic-Sample-Ballot-PDF
The computer system deleted from my screen (so I didn't have to see them) choices not relevant to me, such as legislators from other districts, city propositions not of San Antonio, etc.

Unfortunately, I have no time to get politically involved and to try to actively fix this. All I can do is vote for the closest options to my preferences and hope the statisticians and analysts come up with the right conclusions.

Dillonb3

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I read a great Twitter thread about Trump's teetotalism. Like most things, it's probably bull.

---

In other news, voting machines have gone down in Spalding County, Georgia.

https://twitter.com/cbs46/status/1323616434816245761?s=19

Trump won Spalding county by 25% in 2016

AllForIt

DK224 wrote: »

The early data from Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona is showing an absolutely massive GOP turnout. They lead by 9k votes across Florida, the 117k early voting cushion the Dems had was wiped out in 2 hours this morning.

I'm minded of the UK 2019 GE. Boris was being lambasted left right and centre even from members of his own party. Early evening there were reports of high turnout. Some in the Politics forum were getting excited that this favoured Labour, I thought no way, quite the opposite. Labour had their worst result for decades.

I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

Outlaw Pete

Quite a bit of cheating on show in some polling stations with Biden flyers being handed out inside one and two others had poster sized versions of these flyers pinned to walls near the entrances of at least two.

Here's some examples, but lots of tweets pointing out similar:


https://twitter.com/rebellions/status/1323610614024065029


According to the rules for PA signs are not supposed to be hung within 10 feet of a polling centre. Dems using the excuse that the room inside the centre was ten feet from the entrance. Pretty pathetic excuse and I hope staff rip down such signs when they see them and turf anyone out trying to hand out flyers inside these centres.

Foxtrol

AllForIt wrote: »

I'm minded of the UK 2019 GE. Boris was being lambasted left right and centre even from members of his own party. Early evening there were reports of high turnout. Some in the Politics forum were getting excited that this favoured Labour, I thought no way, quite the opposite. Labour had their worst result for decades.

I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

Conservatives had a double digit lead in the polls prior to that election, in this case Trump doesn't have that it is Biden (close to it).

Rjd2

AllForIt wrote: »

I'm minded of the UK 2019 GE. Boris was being lambasted left right and centre even from members of his own party. Early evening there were reports of high turnout. Some in the Politics forum were getting excited that this favoured Labour, I thought no way, quite the opposite. Labour had their worst result for decades.

I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

Boris had a plan though last year, he went hard after the socially conservative financially lefty type old school Labour voters and in majority of polls he was expected to get a majority. I know their was one from yougov which predicted no majority but that was an exception.

On Corbyn and Trump two mistakes both have made and we shall see if it costs Trump, both are way to online. The stuff Trump is tweeting about e.g Russian interference, that 1776 project, it doesn't matter in the real world.

Corbyn also seemed more worried about retweets rather than voters.

Canice Picklington

AllForIt wrote: »

I'm minded of the UK 2019 GE. Boris was being lambasted left right and centre even from members of his own party. Early evening there were reports of high turnout. Some in the Politics forum were getting excited that this favoured Labour, I thought no way, quite the opposite. Labour had their worst result for decades.

I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

If most people who voted Trump last time vote for him again - and they will - that isn't nearly enough.

droidus

Just another note on Florida. This is a very conservative county. Trump won 68.8% of it in 2016. It doesn't look like he'll get those numbers this time, despite the big lead in election day voters for the GOP.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048