US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

ELM327

MJohnston wrote: »

As many have pointed out on Twitter, red and blue mirages and double mirages were well predicted ahead of time, and then as soon as results started coming we immediately forgot all of that and started freaking out.
We need to be patient, hopefully GA and WI/MI can become more solid today. Maybe even AZ.

AZ is pretty certain as a flip though, it's going Blue - as a Trump fan

L1011

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

DC can't apply for statehood. GOP supports PR statehood and it wouldn't be solid blue. A lot of Latinos in Florida and Texas voted for the GOP.

Florida has the Cuban vote rather distorting Latino support towards the Republicans; that won't be reflected in PR.

Hawkeye9212

quokula wrote: »

Aside from Puerto Rico and DC, if the Democrats do end up controlling the Presidency and the houses (which is a big ask now, but maybe come midterms), is there scope for them to reform the electoral college in general so that those living in major coastal cities have a vote that is worth as much as those living in rural states? Each state has its own rules, but it must be a federal decision how many electoral college votes a given state gets? Surely that needs to be rebalanced according to current populations.

The EC is based off the number of seats each state has. Dems could adopt the Wyoming Rule which would eliminate the imbalance in the House.

BlitzKrieg

Nevada just stated they're not releasing anything more until thursday morning in terms of figures, so might as well find a distraction for now (or I dont know, go to work?)

quokula

L1011 wrote: »

Florida has the Cuban vote rather distorting Latino support towards the Republicans; that won't be reflected in PR.

Also, they only did well with Latinos relative to expectations and relative to 2016. They still lost the Latino vote by a wide margin according to exit polls.

Hawkeye9212

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

DC can't apply for statehood. GOP supports PR statehood and it wouldn't be solid blue. A lot of Latinos in Florida and Texas voted for the GOP.

Cubans and Venezuelans to a large expent. Sun Belt is moving solidly blue due to Latino vote

Hawkeye9212

L1011 wrote: »

Florida has the Cuban vote rather distorting Latino support towards the Republicans; that won't be reflected in PR.

That's what they said about Texas as well but Trump is performing strongly in areas previously won heavily by Dems. They shouldn't expect Dems to be safe blue.

Brian?

dogbert27 wrote: »

Az?

Do you mean Ak, Alaska?

Arizona. Az.

Itssoeasy

Well what a difference even roughy four hours makes and since I woke up at 6am it’s changed more since then. The president made a bad call in saying he thinks he’s already won imo. He said we expect to win which is fair enough as he’s hardly going to say he lost but he didn’t need to add on. I found it funny that Mike pence the VP came up and said the votes are still being counted. I would love to know what possessed Fox News to call Arizona for Biden, because even though it may still do to Biden they jumped the gun.

Hawkeye9212

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Cubans and Venezuelans to a large expent. Sun Belt is moving solidly blue due to Latino vote

Arizona is. Texas will not become solid blue.

Itssoeasy

ELM327 wrote: »

AZ is pretty certain as a flip though, it's going Blue - as a Trump fan

It might but as I said just now why did Fox News call it for Biden very early. Fox News may be proven right but it seems to have pissed off the trump campaign.

extra gravy

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/biden-pennsylvania-election-ballots.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur

"Joe Biden has won absentee ballots counted in Pennsylvania by an overwhelming margin so far, according to data from the Secretary of State early Wednesday. If he carried the remaining absentee ballots by a similar margin, he would win the state."

Getting interesting in PA

Movementarian

Itssoeasy wrote: »

It might but as I said just now why did Fox News call it for Biden very early. Fox News may be proven right but it seems to have pissed off the trump campaign.

I know right! And of course the press should do what they are told by the Trump campaign and not just report facts! What were they thinking!!!!

Francie Barrett

#Breaking #FirstAlert
@wbay
Brown County released its election numbers. Here are the results:
President/Vice President
Vote For 1
TOTAL VOTE %
DEM Joseph R. Biden/Kamala D. Harris
65,509 45.49%
REP Donald J. Trump/Michael R. Pence
75,865 52.68%

Biden nets 3k+ votes in Wisconsin compared to 2016, the pattern of Biden gains is similar to other counties. It's looking like Wisconsin is in the bag for Biden.

dogbert27

Brian? wrote: »

Arizona. Az.

Thanks for clarifying.

But are you saying that Az isn't called yet?

Just that what I'm looking at it's already declared for Biden.

L1011

dogbert27 wrote: »

Thanks for clarifying.

But are you saying that Az isn't called yet?

Just that what I'm looking at it's already declared for Biden.

Its been called by multiple media organisations but its not actually guaranteed

https://www.bitchute.com/video/jJrXxqQe9qwq


Biden introducing his granddaughter as his dead son..

jasonb

From what I can see, only Wisconsin and Michigan are still reporting figures at the moment. And Trump's lead in Michigan is now down to less than 45,000, with approx. 87% votes cast. It was 64,000 with 83% cast.

Retr0gamer

Starting to feel optimistic. Georgia looks like it could flip blue with a massive amount of Atlanta votes and mail in votes left. Nevada only has mail in votes left and looks in the bag. Wisconsin narrowly in the lead for biden but his lead is increasing, if that keeps up he has it in the bag. And Michigan there is a lot for Biden to make up but he just had a massive jump in votes and again if that momentum keeps up he could win it.

If even some of those results come in Blue which is looking very likely it's game over agent orange.

Tchaikovsky

Am I right in thinking that it looks good for Biden in Georgia? Trump ahead by 2.2% but the 2 remaining counties, one of which includes, Atlanta, are landslides for Biden?

fr336

I was still feeling nervous till i came on here. So Pennsylvania still in play?

ArmaniJeanss

quokula wrote: »

Aside from Puerto Rico and DC, if the Democrats do end up controlling the Presidency and the houses (which is a big ask now, but maybe come midterms), is there scope for them to reform the electoral college in general so that those living in major coastal cities have a vote that is worth as much as those living in rural states? Each state has its own rules, but it must be a federal decision how many electoral college votes a given state gets? Surely that needs to be rebalanced according to current populations.

As I understand it, it is actually by population rounded to nearest whole number, except crucially there's a minimum of 3 per state. That's where the imbalance comes in. But the minimum 3 figure seems sacrosanct, as if ND or SD had an amount in line with their population they'd be almost irrelevant.

It's not actually dissimilar to our European parliament, where Malta, Lux etc get many more seats per head of pop then Ger/Fra/Italy.

prawnsambo

People seem to be forgetting Maine which has 4 EC votes. I know it's small, but it's still not settled - Biden on 54% with about 75% of the vote counted. Wisconsin looks tight, but that looks like widening a lot as the rest of Milwaukee gets counted. So if AZ (11), NV (6), ME (4) and WI (10) go to Biden, that only leaves him needing 15 to get to 270.

jasonb

jasonb wrote: »

From what I can see, only Wisconsin and Michigan are still reporting figures at the moment. And Trump's lead in Michigan is now down to less than 45,000, with approx. 87% votes cast. It was 64,000 with 83% cast.

And it's now 36,000 at 89%.

breezy1985

One thing I really dont get is how having the candidate visit your state makes people vote for them. How incredibly fickle and also naive to thing it means anything

fr336

You can make your own path to 270 here https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/road-to-270-2020/ Biden has many options but equally Trump could shut a lot of them down.

Mellor

dogbert27 wrote: »

Thanks for clarifying.

But are you saying that Az isn't called yet?

Just that what I'm looking at it's already declared for Biden.

No states have officially called for anyone.
When the NYT or Fox or CNN report is for one or the other they are just making a prediction based on the released information to date.

bennyl10

Wisconsin is all but done
Biden takes it

Michigan left and closing quickly

Tchaikovsky

prawnsambo wrote: »

People seem to be forgetting Maine which has 4 EC votes. I know it's small, but it's still not settled - Biden on 54% with about 75% of the vote counted. Wisconsin looks tight, but that looks like widening a lot as the rest of Milwaukee gets counted. So if AZ (11), NV (6), ME (4) and WI (10) go to Biden, that only leaves him needing 15 to get to 270.

Guardian has it settled with 85% in - Biden 53.2%, Trump 43.9%

jasonb

prawnsambo wrote: »

People seem to be forgetting Maine which has 4 EC votes. I know it's small, but it's still not settled - Biden on 54% with about 75% of the vote counted. Wisconsin looks tight, but that looks like widening a lot as the rest of Milwaukee gets counted. So if AZ (11), NV (6), ME (4) and WI (10) go to Biden, that only leaves him needing 15 to get to 270.

I think AP have called 3 of those 4 for Biden, and in the fourth the Dems are leading?