US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

MJohnston

UpBack1234 wrote: »

There is a degree of truth in this tbh- not on individual state polls necessarily (did anyone REALLY think he'd lose TX/FL?) - but to the extent that Trump's IRL popularity among middle Americans has been underplayed by many on "our" side.

I think it’s their assertion that A+ pollsters are Democrat leaning that is what grates. That’s not true. They are generally extremely objective, and if there are polling errors, it tends to be about assumptions made about the demographics of a sample. There’s no business gain for them in putting their finger on the scales for either side.

Hmmzis

Michigan just flipped blue.

Slattsy

MICHIGAN

bennyl10

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I'm worried Trump will take Michigan. It looks very tight.

and Biden now has the lead

LuckyLloyd

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I'm worried Trump will take Michigan. It looks very tight.

Biden just took the lead!

This is it

4k ahead in Michigan according to The Associated Press

murpho999

Biden now leading in Michigan according to google.

https://www.google.com/search?q=2020+presidential+election+results&rlz=1C1CHBD_enIE859IE859&oq=2020&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j69i59j69i61l3j69i65l3.3764j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

devnull

The bookies have no idea how this is going. It's flif flopped a few times now.

Up until last night they were pretty sure Biden would win, but then as the data started coming up they started leaning towards Trump and this morning they seemed fairly sure hed win it.

Then slowly it started to drift the other way slowly to the point where Biden was 1/4 on and Trump was 3/1. In the last half an hour or so we're seeing Trumps odds starting to shorten and Biden's slowly increase again.

It really could go either way.

Headshot

Biden now ahead in Michigan

Harry Palmr

Michigan is blue! Michigan is blue! 1.8% lead

shocksy

Game Shot, Leg, Set and the match. It's officially over.

This is it

Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada gives it to Bidan, yeah?

Mr.Nice Guy

Wow, this is intense. Come on, Michigan.

Mellor

Biden currently ahead in states totally 270

murpho999

This is it wrote: »

Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada gives it to Bidan, yeah?

That's all he needs.

Could take Georgia & Philadelphia too.

I think Biden has trumped this election.

murpho999

shocksy wrote: »

Game Shot, Leg, Set and the match. It's officially over.

Eh, no it's not.

shocksy

murpho999 wrote: »

[/B]

Eh, no it's not.

Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're very much out of touch haha.

VinLieger

murpho999 wrote: »

[/B]

Eh, no it's not.

Just ignore anyone from either side trying to push the "its over" narrative

devnull

shocksy wrote: »

Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're put of touch haha.

Trump has already won in his own mind, no matter what the figures say.

Could turn quite ugly afterwards if he really throws his toys out of the pram if he loses.

In my mind though it's too close to call. Nobody should get head fo themselves.

murpho999

shocksy wrote: »

Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're very much out of touch haha.

No, I think it's looking good for Biden as things develop but I'm saying that nothing is official yet as you said.

murpho999

VinLieger wrote: »

Just ignore anyone from either side trying to push the "its over" narrative

Yes, I'll go look at what they experts on the betting exchanges were doing at 4am instead.:pac:

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

I would have thought a 5 point flip is quite big? Aren't margins of error usually 3 points?

If your poll is 5 points off its worse than useless

Even if you have a 3% national margin of error, you essentially have 50 different elections with to potential the swing more wildly. A lot of the state level polls had sample sizes that would leave a 4 and 5% margin of error. There is also a significant issue with polling in general. How do you ensure a representative sample. I think it was Nate Silver on 538 who I saw comment that he attempted through social media to target 10,000 while male voters I believe for a targeted survey. 10,000 people saw the ad, couple of hundred view it, and 6 took the survey. A poll is essentially representative of those who took it and not those you wanted to take it.

Kiith

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323990204353552391

prawnsambo

Lead is about 35k in Michigan now.

Hurrache

devnull wrote: »

Trump has already won in his own mind, no matter what the figures say.

Could turn quite ugly afterwards if he really throws his toys out of the pram if he loses.

In my mind though it's too close to call. Nobody should get head fo themselves.

The fence he put around the White House maybe was just him erecting battlements and it'll be another Waco event.

I was a resident of the states during the hanging chad election and I thought that was bizarre, but this year takes it to another level.

MJohnston

devnull wrote: »

The bookies have no idea how this is going. It's flif flopped a few times now.

Up until last night they were pretty sure Biden would win, but then as the data started coming up they started leaning towards Trump and this morning they seemed fairly sure hed win it.

Then slowly it started to drift the other way slowly to the point where Biden was 1/4 on and Trump was 3/1. In the last half an hour or so we're seeing Trumps odds starting to shorten and Biden's slowly increase again.

It really could go either way.

Sounds like *everything* that bookmakers are involved with. They never discovered empirical analysis. Or maybe they did but they have to keep an element of “win-ability” in their odds in order to harvest money from people.

Mr.Nice Guy

Washington Post reporter:

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1323988214819000320

murpho999

devnull wrote: »

The bookies have no idea how this is going. It's flif flopped a few times now.

Up until last night they were pretty sure Biden would win, but then as the data started coming up they started leaning towards Trump and this morning they seemed fairly sure hed win it.

Then slowly it started to drift the other way slowly to the point where Biden was 1/4 on and Trump was 3/1. In the last half an hour or so we're seeing Trumps odds starting to shorten and Biden's slowly increase again.

It really could go either way.

The bookies operate a market and reflect how people are betting.

They're not making a call on how the votes are going.

I don't get why people don't understand this.

Shelga

Is there any chance Trump could still win Arizona? Only 84% of votes counted?

bennyl10

Shelga wrote: »

Is there any chance Trump could still win Arizona? Only 84% of votes counted?

some have called it already
hasnt a hope there

gonna be NV if he's gonna take anywhere, and that's very unlikely