US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

kowloon

Deleted User wrote: »

Splitter!!

I thought we were the Popular Front?

robinph

Manic Moran wrote: »

For the curious, my county sample ballot. https://www.bexar.org/DocumentCenter/View/4570/Generic-Sample-Ballot-PDF

They put peoples nicknames on the ballot?!?!?!? "Spike" Really?!?

But also who needs the name Peter clarifying that they mean "Pete" or that Elizabeth is known as "Liz"?

robinph

droidus wrote: »

Just another note on Florida. This is a very conservative county. Trump won 68.8% of it in 2016. It doesn't look like he'll get those numbers this time, despite the big lead in election day voters for the GOP.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048

Are those number not just the party they claim to be signed up to the monthly newsletter for, not how any of them actually voted? No requirement for any of them to vote for their team.

BonnieSituation

Manic Moran wrote: »

And voting done. Voter #84 in my center, at 09:48. In and out in about ten minutes, five of which was spent staring at the screen thinking "Do I really want to vote for this person?"

I have never before been presented with such a God-awful selection of candidates to choose from, and I'm not talking about just the legislature-level candidates either, though I'm not pleased by them (Worse, unlike in 2016, the third party candidates provide no source of succor). The big argument for the school district superintendent isn't anything to do with budgets, but sex education policies. Much though I hate the idea of the candidate for Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme court being nominated after a primary system by the two major parties, I'm sorry, Libertarians, I'm not voting for your guy who, though a lawyer, has never been a judge before. Similarly, though I may have issues with my county sheriff, also selected by the Democrat primary system, at least he's a lawman unlike the Republican who has never, to my knowledge, worn a uniform of any sort.
I have also learned that the Texas State Railroad Commission hasn't regulated railroads since 2005, and is now purely a regulatory agency for the oil and gas industry.

With selections like the ones I had, no wonder voter turnout can be low.

For the curious, my county sample ballot. https://www.bexar.org/DocumentCenter/View/4570/Generic-Sample-Ballot-PDF
The computer system deleted from my screen (so I didn't have to see them) choices not relevant to me, such as legislators from other districts, city propositions not of San Antonio, etc.

Unfortunately, I have no time to get politically involved and to try to actively fix this. All I can do is vote for the closest options to my preferences and hope the statisticians and analysts come up with the right conclusions.

That's just too much choice for my mind.

Voting for judges is bananas.

How long are those lower ballot terms?

DK224

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323663407342641154

R lead at 75,183 or 0.76 percentage points. 2016 R lead was 0.64 pct pts. Trump is already ahead of 2016 and it's only 11:30 am in Florida.

Canice Picklington

droidus wrote: »

Just another note on Florida. This is a very conservative county. Trump won 68.8% of it in 2016. It doesn't look like he'll get those numbers this time, despite the big lead in election day voters for the GOP.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048

I've been trying to crunch the numbers on that tweet for the last 20 minutes based off 2016 results but it's a fool's game, really.

Manic Moran

robinph wrote: »

They put peoples nicknames on the ballot?!?!?!? "Spike" Really?!?

But also who needs the name Peter clarifying that they mean "Pete" or that Elizabeth is known as "Liz"?

I don't know about ballots specifically, but it is not unusual in US legal documentation to also include unofficial aliases or 'commonly used names.'

According to the rules for PA signs are not supposed to be hung within 10 feet of a polling centre.

Ten feet? Heck, may as well not bother. It's 100 feet here, and I had difficulty identifying the entrance to my voting location because of the swarm of signs outside obscuring the one which said "enter here". (And the chap inside did confirm that they were more than 100feet away). I ended up going in the exit, I wasn't alone.

BonnieSituation

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Quite a bit of cheating on show in some polling stations with Biden flyers being handed out inside one and two others had poster sized versions of these flyers pinned to walls near the entrances of at least two.

Here's some examples, but lots of tweets pointing out similar:


https://twitter.com/rebellions/status/1323610614024065029


According to the rules for PA signs are not supposed to be hung within 10 feet of a polling centre. Dems using the excuse that the room inside the centre was ten feet from the entrance. Pretty pathetic excuse and I hope staff rip down such signs when they see them and turf anyone out trying to hand out flyers inside these centres.

I'm glad the GOP never engage in anything like this and certainly have much more robust excuses when they're disenfranchising the electorate.

Itssoeasy

As I was saying earlier for those looking for ways to watch the coverage of the election here in Ireland, On the cnn app there is a tab to watch the channel (not in the top right corner where it says “watch tv”) at the top and having just checked it seems to work and it looks live because Anderson cooper is on live now. So that’s one that does work and nbc and msnbc normally do provide a way to watch but I haven’t seen it on the nbc app just yet.

Foxtrol

DK224 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323663407342641154

R lead at 75,183 or 0.76 percentage points. 2016 R lead was 0.64 pct pts. Trump is already ahead of 2016 and it's only 11:30 am in Florida.

To say Trump is ahead is making a huge leap that GOP voters are voting for him at the same rate and more importantly that independents are going for him at the same rate.

Worrying or celebrating based on party affiliation isn't wise.

Manic Moran

BonnieSituation wrote: »

That's just too much choice for my mind.

Voting for judges is bananas.

How long are those lower ballot terms?

Here, the Board of trustees for the school district is four years, the Railroad commission is six years, State Senators and Representatives are two years, Sheriff was four years. Judges seem to be 6 years at the higher level, 4 at the lower.

droidus

Canice Picklington wrote: »

I've been trying to crunch the numbers on that tweet for the last 20 minutes based off 2016 results but it's a fool's game, really.

It depends a lot on NPA's, how many Rep's break for Biden and total turnout, however Wasserman says that if Trump is 62% or lower at their 7pm reporting dump then he's probably lost Florida and therefore the election.

Live updates on Florida here if anyone wants the real numbers:

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

letowski

Miami-Dade and Sarasota aren't doing any live tracker so it's not worth putting too much stock into numbers until 12am.

BorneTobyWilde

CNN

Reporter asked people in line '' who you voting for'' They're like '' do I have to tell you '' No no course not
''cool '' all very mellow. But lets get real, if it was Biden they'd say Biden.

Trump has millions of secret voters.

Tell me how

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

CNN

Reporter asked people in line '' who you voting for'' They're like '' do I have to tell you '' No no course not
''cool '' all very mellow. But lets get real, if it was Biden they'd say Biden.

Trump has millions of secret voters.

Unless they're some of the Republicans who have had enough and don't want to face the anger of some on their own side.

We'll find out in about 12 hours.

Oafley Jones

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

CNN

Reporter asked people in line '' who you voting for'' They're like '' do I have to tell you '' No no course not
''cool '' all very mellow. But lets get real, if it was Biden they'd say Biden.

Trump has millions of secret voters.

Because Trump voters are usually so demure?

BorneTobyWilde

Tell me how wrote: »

Unless they're some of the Republicans who have had enough and don't want to face the anger of some on their own side.

We'll find out in about 12 hours.

Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


Trump Wins Florida
Trump Wins Texas
Trump Wins PA
Trump Wins Georgia
Trump Wins Ohio

Shelga

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


Trump Wins Florida
Trump Wins Texas
Trump Wins PA
Trump Wins Georgia
Trump Wins Ohio

Please, please no.

Tell me how

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


Trump Wins Florida
Trump Wins Texas
Trump Wins PA
Trump Wins Georgia
Trump Wins Ohio

Fingers crossed............














................ you are wrong

Foxtrol

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


Trump Wins Florida
Trump Wins Texas
Trump Wins PA
Trump Wins Georgia
Trump Wins Ohio

Biden can still win if that happens... :pac:

Professor Moriarty

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Yes we will, and it will be 2016 all over again


Trump Wins Florida
Trump Wins Texas
Trump Wins PA
Trump Wins Georgia
Trump Wins Ohio

Would you prefer to see Trump re-elected?

Brussels Sprout

AllForIt wrote: »

I think the same sort thing again today. There is no way enthusiastic high turn out is a result of fervent support for Biden. I think most ppl who voted for Trump will vote for him again.

Perhaps not, but it could very well be fervent support for getting rid of Trump.

Canice Picklington

Let's go back to Sumter County in Florida for the craic.

2016 results:
Vote share: Trump 68.78% Clinton 29.53%
Vote numbers: Trump 52,730 Clinton 22,638
Vote share margin: 39.25%
Raw vote margin: 30,092
Total county turnout: 76,665
State result: Trump 49.02% Clinton 47.82%
Sumter County as a percentage of total Florida votes cast: 0.81%

2012 results:
Vote share: Romney 67.13% Obama 32.25%
Vote numbers: Romney 40,646 Obama 19,524
Vote share margin: 34.88%
Raw vote Margin: 21,122
Total county turnout: 60,479
State result: Obama 50.01% Romney 49.13%
Sumter County as a percentage of total Florida votes cast: 0.71%


This is a Trump county and turnout is well up again - but is the increased turnout good for him this time? Or, could it be a case that if turnout jumps in Trump supporting counties more than it does in Biden counties, that could offset a slight loss in vote share in those counties, because on the raw numbers, you could have a bigger margin with less vote share?

What's noteworthy about the difference between 2012 and 2016 is not how much Trump's vote share jumped by, but how much Clinton's fell from Obama. Clinton's raw vote numbers were higher than Obama's, but the absolute vote margin was higher - and Sumter county as a percentage of total Florida votes cast increased from 0.71% to 0.81%.

I still think Trump needs to hit 68.00% in Sumter county as a minimum because turnout will likely be up across the state.

L1011

robinph wrote: »

They put peoples nicknames on the ballot?!?!?!? "Spike" Really?!?

But also who needs the name Peter clarifying that they mean "Pete" or that Elizabeth is known as "Liz"?

Done in Ireland too. Cope, Boxer, Ming, GV

BorneTobyWilde

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Would you prefer to see Trump re-elected?

No, but that's what will happen

Quin_Dub

DK224 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323663407342641154

R lead at 75,183 or 0.76 percentage points. 2016 R lead was 0.64 pct pts. Trump is already ahead of 2016 and it's only 11:30 am in Florida.

The above tweet suggest that they don't have Miami data in the figures - If I understand the * comments.

Miami is heavily Democrat is it not?

BorneTobyWilde

Biden will take Michigan from Trump, and Georgia , PA is anyone's ,
Arizona could decide it, Biden from polls has that, and he'll need it to win

Francie Barrett

Francie Barrett wrote: »

There's a live data feed of the turnout in Florida, here's the specific link to Pinellas County, which switched red last time and is viewed as a bellweather.

Democrats had a lead before polling stations opened, but it's shrinking all morning. Democrats percentage of the votes cast is 38.5% as of typing this.

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

In 2016, Republicans cast 38.7% of the votes in Florida last time, Democrats cast 38.1%

My initial read is that both the Republicans and Democrats have both been able to get the vote out with neither side appearing to benefit significantly so far. It looks like Florida will be decided by the non-affiliated voters.

It's now noon and Trump is ahead by 300.

The Republicans had 10k+ votes in Pinellas at the end of polling in 2016, but will not quite manage to match that.

I am sceptical that Trump voting Republicans in 2016 will switched sides in any serious way. I think the non party voters will be vital. Will the Democrats be able to flip enough of these voters this time out? It's too early to say really. You would have to think he would be even slightly more popular than Hillary?

My initial gut feeling at this stage if I was Biden would be cautious optimism. I think he will almost certainly get closer to Trump this time than Clinton did in 2016, which reads will for the rest of the country.

Faugheen

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

No, but that's what will happen

There isn’t a snowballs chance in hell Trump wins Wisconsin.

There is literally zero scenarios where he wins there if Biden is picking up Georgia. If Biden wins Georgia, he’s winning Wisconsin by double digits and is picking up Pennsylvania, North Carolina and possibly Florida too.

The amount of people who just go out on a whim here astounds me.

droidus

Canice Picklington wrote: »

Let's go back to Sumter County in Florida for the craic.

2016 results:
Vote share: Trump 68.78% Clinton 29.53%
Vote numbers: Trump 52,730 Clinton 22,638
Vote share margin: 39.25%
Raw vote margin: 30,092
Total county turnout: 76,665
State result: Trump 49.02% Clinton 47.82%
Sumter County as a percentage of total Florida votes cast: 0.81%

2012 results:
Vote share: Romney 67.13% Obama 32.25%
Vote numbers: Romney 40,646 Obama 19,524
Vote share margin: 34.88%
Raw vote Margin: 21,122
Total county turnout: 60,479
State result: Obama 50.01% Romney 49.13%
Sumter County as a percentage of total Florida votes cast: 0.71%


This is a Trump county and turnout is well up again - but is the increased turnout good for him this time? Or, could it be a case that if turnout jumps in Trump supporting counties more than it does in Biden counties, that could offset a slight loss in vote share in those counties, because on the raw numbers, you could have a bigger margin with less vote share?

What's noteworthy about the difference between 2012 and 2016 is not how much Trump's vote share jumped by, but how much Clinton's fell from Obama. Clinton's raw vote numbers were higher than Obama's, but the absolute vote margin was higher - and Sumter county as a percentage of total Florida votes cast increased from 0.71% to 0.81%.

I still think Trump needs to hit 68.00% in Sumter county as a minimum because turnout will likely be up across the state.

Yep, thats exactly right. Less than 62% he loses the election, less than 65% Biden has an edge in Florida, less than 68% Trump's underperforming slightly and it's gonna be close - as I understand it.