US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Canice Picklington

seamus wrote: »

PA could become the kingmaker here.

Nevada is very tight. If it was to swing back to Trump, PA stayed with Trump and no other states flipped, then Trump has it.

The confidence of Biden's team (and noise from Trump's) suggests that their accountants don't see Nevada going with Trump.

I can't see why the large outstanding mail in vote from Clark and Washoe counties would do anything other than break heavily for Biden.

Retr0gamer

Kur4mA wrote: »

Arizona is only 84% of votes counted (according to The Associated Press) or 86% according to NBC. It's not in the bag yet for Biden.

It kind of is though, the vast majority of those votes are coming from Tuscon and Pheonix which are skewed blue.

bennyl10

VinLieger wrote: »

Fox have called it for Biden and everyone im looking at has it at 99%, there's definitely some confusion here and id like to know whats happening

Look at where the remaining votes are, huge dem hubs

murpho999

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324007806694023169

This is hilarious from the Donald, even by his standard.

He called postal voting open to fraud and encouraged Republicans not to use it and vote in person which his supporters followed.

States counted in person votes first thus giving him good numbers.

Postal votes after which are still ongoing and showing huge numbers for Democrats who followed advice and use the system rather than risk Covid at polling stations.

Why is he now surprised that postal votes are going against him?

Graham

Faugheen wrote: »

What? I think you’re agreeing with me here...

You're right, sorry Faugheen. I am agreeing.

ancapailldorcha

Unsubstantiated claims of illegal activity intended to discredit a result one does not like is trolling. Post and response deleted.

Faugheen

Graham wrote: »

You're right, sorry Faugheen. I am agreeing.

Haha. No worries. I’m sleep deprived too.

murpho999

seamus wrote: »

PA could become the kingmaker here.

Nevada is very tight. If it was to swing back to Trump, PA stayed with Trump and no other states flipped, then Trump has it.

The confidence of Biden's team (and noise from Trump's) suggests that their accountants don't see Nevada going with Trump.

Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan are really going his way and that gets Biden to 270.

PA would be an absoute bonus that would make limit Trump's legal options. I think Biden has a huge chance there.

Also, I wouldn't rule out Georgia either as Democrat hubs are still to return votes there too.

2ndcoming

SNIP. Take it to the gambling forum please.

VinLieger

This at least explains whats happening in Arizona in the different data that is being shown


https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1324011428030771200

bennyl10

VinLieger wrote: »

This at least explains whats happening in Arizona in the different data that is being shown


https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1324011428030771200

Still doesn’t make Trumps ‘predictions’ any more logical based on data

robinph

murpho999 wrote: »

Why is he now surprised that postal votes are going against him?

He's not surprised. It was the plan all along.

If anything this is one moment of Trump actually showing some level of forethought and planning in anything that hes ever done. Sow distrust of the mail in system, know that states will count in person votes first, encourage republicans to vote in person, then when the early votes show red but then switch to blue as the mail votes start to get counted declare cheating.

It was all by design.

Francie Barrett

Trump going mad at this, 128k votes added for Biden, 0 for everyone else.

I am guessing this is just a case of the spreadsheet being updated on a cell by cell basis?

2ndcoming

bennyl10 wrote: »

Georgia seems to just be Atlanta left.. Biden would need a huge surge to turn it

By far the most populous counties in the state though, similar to the Pennsylvania situation. If it was easily callable either way those prices would not be available, these are multi million euro markets.

Exclamation Marc

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Trump going mad at this, 128k votes added for Biden, 0 for everyone else.

I am guessing this is just a case of the spreadsheet being updated on a cell by cell basis?

Of course. I'm sure similar swings happened in Texas at various stages when Biden was ahead.

errlloyd

bennyl10 wrote: »

Georgia seems to just be Atlanta left.. Biden would need a huge surge to turn it

He needs 62.6 percent of the outstanding vote. He should get that.

Quin_Dub

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Why would there be a casting vote if one candidate has more electoral college votes from their 25 states?

We're discussing the scenario of a 269-269 draw leading to a House vote on the President , which is on a State by State basis.

It is possible for the House to be drawn 25-25 in the State head to head , hence the need for a casting vote.

It's a highly unlikely scenario given the state of play right now , but just musing.

valoren

The fraud nonsense again. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. My guess is that after a cursory inquiry is done for show, while Trump holds office, nothing will be uncovered. Remember how Trump actually won the election last time and still touted there was fraud afoot because his ego couldn't deal with Clinton winning the popular vote? Broken record time again. You can have the likes of Farage joining Andrew Neil to deliver the opposite view point for some sense of balance, he can prattle on about electoral fraud. While Neil can obviously challenge it the problem becomes that despite having zero evidence to say such a thing, his mere presence on the show lends a small semblance of credibility and all in the notion of providing balance. He gets a platform to spout lies and it takes hold as a narrative. Thus we see electoral fraud touting specific numbers creeping into the discourse.

deathbomber

murpho999 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324007806694023169

This is hilarious from the Donald, even by his standard.

He called postal voting open to fraud and encouraged Republicans not to use it and vote in person which his supporters followed.

States counted in person votes first thus giving him good numbers.

Postal votes after which are still ongoing and showing huge numbers for Democrats who followed advice and use the system rather than risk Covid at polling stations.

Why is he now surprised that postal votes are going against him?

Farage came out a couple of hours ago stating the Postal voting system is fraudulent. Thick as thieves

kilns

Crazy story that USPS failed to deliver 27% of mail in ballots in South Florida

You wont hear Trump mentioning that

String in bow of Dems if Trumps goes legal as they may be allowed to count these votes and as evidence has proved the majority of mail in ballots are democrats and that would flip Florida

2ndcoming

valoren wrote: »

The fraud nonsense again. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. My guess is that after a cursory inquiry is done for show, while Trump holds office, nothing will be uncovered. Remember how Trump actually won the election last time and still touted there was fraud afoot because his ego couldn't deal with Clinton winning the popular vote? Broken record time again. You can have the likes of Farage joining Andrew Neil to deliver the opposite view point for some sense of balance, he can prattle on about electoral fraud. While Neil can obviously challenge it the problem becomes that despite having zero evidence to say such a thing, his mere presence on the show lends a small semblance of credibility and all in the notion of providing balance. He gets a platform to spout lies and it takes hold as a narrative. Thus we see electoral fraud touting specific numbers creeping into the discourse.

Major problem for the media to contend with in the coming years. Allowing people to spout things that are demonstrably false is not fair or balanced, it only lends undue credibility to liars. As you say extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

Inquitus

deathbomber wrote: »

Farage came out a couple of hours ago stating the Postal voting system is fraudulent. Thick as thieves

Aye well Brexit is intertwined with who wins the Presidential race quite tightly, Farage would be pooping himself if Biden wins!

UpBack1234

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye well Brexit is intertwined with who wins the Presidential race quite tightly, Farage would be pooping himself if Biden wins!

There's also the small matter of the the 10,000 quid he put on a Trump win. He wishes there was fraud!:)

Dillonb3

deathbomber wrote: »

Farage came out a couple of hours ago stating the Postal voting system is fraudulent. Thick as thieves

Andrew Neil interviewed and pulled him up over it.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1323938999468175367


Worrying about Arizona and hard to know where the votes are coming in from. Conservatives on twitter are claiming they're in Trump's favor

extra gravy

John King is back!

Nody

valoren wrote: »

The fraud nonsense again. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. My guess is that after a cursory inquiry is done for show, while Trump holds office, nothing will be uncovered. Remember how Trump actually won the election last time and still touted there was fraud afoot because his ego couldn't deal with Clinton winning the popular vote? Broken record time again. You can have the likes of Farage joining Andrew Neil to deliver the opposite view point for some sense of balance, he can prattle on about electoral fraud. While Neil can obviously challenge it the problem becomes that despite having zero evidence to say such a thing, his mere presence on the show lends a small semblance of credibility and all in the notion of providing balance. He gets a platform to spout lies and it takes hold as a narrative. Thus we see electoral fraud touting specific numbers creeping into the discourse.

The latest study for fraud in voting in the US puts it at 0.0009% in 2017; with a record 160 million voters we're talking about 1440 cases in all of USA. For Wisconsin; well good luck (Scott was the republican governor for Wisconsin 2011-2019)...

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1324002777597677569

circadian

extra gravy wrote: »

John King is back!

The only redeeming thing about CNN. I don't mind Anderson or Don Lemon too much but the likes of Jake Tapper et al are just eughh.

bennyl10

Dillonb3 wrote: »

Andrew Neil interviewed and pulled him up over it.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1323938999468175367


Worrying about Arizona and hard to know where the votes are coming in from. Conservatives on twitter are claiming they're in Trump's favor

Majority of votes in arizona to be counted are Phoenix and Tucson

Hasn't a hope

Faugheen

Biden stretches his lead in Michigan

alchemist33

Fox's dials have Biden with a 95% chance in Michigan, 93% in Wisconsin and 70% in Nevada