US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

paul71

CruelSummer wrote: »

Just checked on the latest numbers, am I right in saying that there’s less that 350 votes in the difference in Georgia?

I did a breakdown of Georgia just now.
I broke it down by county and worked out the remaining uncounted votes.
Then allocated those votes by the percentage mix on votes already cast in each county.

I have Biden by about 20,000 votes, in Georgia.
I did the same in North Carolina and Trump gets North Carolina.

Graham

Quin_Dub wrote: »

No.

It's 100,344..Missing a digit there!! :-)

Biden 2,283,070
Trump 2,383,414

Most recent:

Biden closing the gap

Trump 2,387,671
Biden 2,300,063

87,608


State Secretary of Georgia announced around 200,000 outstanding mostly from the larger population centres

sheeplover55

sheeplover55 wrote: »

Can we admit polls were badly wrong again? NYT Reuters etc last pre election polls had Biden +10 and +11 in states like Wisconsin. The congressional race polling was even worse

https://twitter.com/rkylesmith/status/1324034971699466240

I've yet to see many defending the polls. They might end up calling the states just about right but they obviously haven't figured out how to sample properly.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

sheeplover55 wrote: »

Can we admit polls were badly wrong again? NYT Reuters etc last pre election polls had Biden +10 and +11 in states like Wisconsin. The congressional race polling was even worse

https://twitter.com/rkylesmith/status/1324034971699466240

What is the main reason for this can anyone explain? I've read that the polls were adjusted to reflect the mistakes of 4 years ago and as such were supposed to be more accurate. Yet again they were wildly wrong.

I'm thinking a part of the reason is that people don't like admitting they're voting for Trump, but would these polls not be conducted in private?

Timberrrrrrrr

Trump demands recount in Wisconsin even before the count is finished.

Christy42

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Trump demands recount in Wisconsin even before the count is finished.

I thought he believed the US should get the results in as quickly as possible to know the winner ASAP. Could this not delay it?

Tell me Trump isn't a hypocrite.

Movementarian

At this stage what are people thinking for the last few results?

Its odd that the republicans seem to think they are still the Arizona race...do theh know something the numbers aren't showing?

If Trump gets Arizona, Georgia and NC he only needs PA?

I'm still nervous on this....that he will sneak this yet....

Shelga

Why do we always have to do soul-searching after this rubbish?

Is it not possible that some people are just horrible underneath, and now revel in the fact that they have a candidate who allows them to express their true selves?

It's happened many times in the past.

TomOnBoard

Rjd2 wrote: »

One small thing for both sides, they need to be better with spending their money on viral candidates .,,,examples?

Amy Mc Grath and James Harrison in the senate, while the GOP base yet again looks like have splashed to much money on hopeless candidates who have some viral fame.

The spend on Harrison clearly shows that money doesn't always talk! Such a pity! I was really looking forward to a Graham-free Senate!

I don't think Mc Grath ever really had much of a hope in KY.

astrofool

Movementarian wrote: »

At this stage what are people thinking for the last few results?

Its odd that the republicans seem to think they are still the Arizona race...do theh know something the numbers aren't showing?

If Trump gets Arizona, Georgia and NC he only needs PA?

I'm still nervous on this....that he will sneak this yet....

It feels like they're just looking to stall things as long as possible in the hope that something will happen, it's hard to see him conceding no matter what happens with the vote.

Itssoeasy

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Trump demands recount in Wisconsin even before the count is finished.

So if Trump is calling for a recount in Wisconsin can Hillary Clinton ask for one for 2016 ? I’m joking obviously but it highlights the ridiculousness of trumps demand.

10000maniacs

Trump whinging about Wisconsin. Ordering a recount.

Faugheen

I find it funny that he now doesn’t want all counting to stop.

Timberrrrrrrr

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So if Trump is calling for a recount in Wisconsin can Hillary Clinton ask for one for 2016 ? I’m joking obviously but it highlights the ridiculousness of trumps demand.

With the news of missing ballots in FL are true then Biden should demand a recount there.

rossie1977

Movementarian wrote: »

At this stage what are people thinking for the last few results?

Its odd that the republicans seem to think they are still the Arizona race...do theh know something the numbers aren't showing?

If Trump gets Arizona, Georgia and NC he only needs PA?

I'm still nervous on this....that he will sneak this yet....

AP called Arizona hours ago.

Georgia will go to Biden too by a hair

TomOnBoard

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Biden wins you'll not see a republican president for the next 16 years. Biden won't last 8 years though, he'll have to step down in 2 probably, if he lasts two.
What happens in that scenario

I disagree. A Biden presidency will be made impossible to function as it will try to deal with a post-Covid economy that is in tatters, while a Senate stays in Republican hands. Mc Connell will do to Biden EXACTLY what he did in Obama's second term. By the time 2024 comes around, Trumpism will not have gone away.

I'm feeling quite desperate about it TBH!

I do agree that Biden may not stay the full term and may hand the reins over to Harris at some point after the next mid-terms.

Panrich

10000maniacs wrote: »

Trump whinging about Wisconsin. Ordering a recount.

Meanwhile in 2016...

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/12/01/Trump-campaign-objects-to-recount-efforts-in-Michigan/8861480642641/

Itssoeasy

Panrich wrote: »

Meanwhile in 2016...

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/12/01/Trump-campaign-objects-to-recount-efforts-in-Michigan/8861480642641/

I’m shocked. I’m not really.

Brian?

10000maniacs wrote: »

Trump whinging about Wisconsin. Ordering a recount.

Ordering? He can't order them to do anything.

TomOnBoard

Manic Moran wrote: »

No, we're not. We're voting as the populations of the 50 States at the same time to elect the chief executive of the United States. Note that legally, most of us aren't voting for a person, we are voting for a group of electors.

The deference to the population discrepancy is that some states have more votes than others, though legally, all are separate and equal states.

This concept is fundamental to the structure of the US, not just for elections. It's how the country works on a daily basis.

This ^^^...

Imagine how we would feel in Ireland if our votes in an EU context were dictated solely by population? it's bad enough as it is, but we would never get a look in, if our perspectives were not shared by the large populations in the mainland.

Bad as the EC system may be, it is fundamental to the concept of a country being formed out of a set of States that are United, and not a single entity where California and New York together would dictate policy in every facet of life for the entire mid-West.

Brian?

Ilhan Omar re-elected in MN by 40 points. Delighted for her after the bile she's been subject to over the last 2 years.

astrofool

Brian? wrote: »

Ordering? He can't order them to do anything.

I do wonder if Bill Barr is hunkered down figuring out how he can enable this for Trump.

I also think they have to wait a few days before the recount can begin.

Itssoeasy

TomOnBoard wrote: »

I disagree. A Biden presidency will be made impossible to function as it will try to deal with a post-Covid economy that is in tatters, while a Senate stays in Republican hands. Mc Connell will do to Biden EXACTLY what he did in Obama's second term. By the time 2024 comes around, Trumpism will not have gone away.

I'm feeling quite desperate about it TBH!

I do agree that Biden may not stay the full term and may hand the reins over to Harris at some point after the next mid-terms.

I don’t agree that a Biden presidency will be impossible to function because of McConnell. McConnell has a relationship with Biden pre trump having served in the senate together. He gave some very warm remarks towards Biden when Biden became Vice President and also passed an amendment to a cancer bill to rename it to beau Biden. My point is that Biden may be able to work with the GOP in the senate given his history.

ancapailldorcha

AbusesToilets wrote: »

The system would be more representative if the EC votes were awarded proportionate to the votes in each state. That alone would give a more accurate reflection of voter sentiment, and would also encourage candidates to compete in states where they might not be able to win outright.

I can't dig it up but The Economist had an article on this. Apparently, for some states it's winner-takes-all and for others, electors are delegated in proportion to the distribution of the popular vote. That would make a lot more sense to me.

Carfacemandog

Brian? wrote: »

Ilhan Omar re-elected in MN by 40 points. Delighted for her after the bile she's been subject to over the last 2 years.

I thought Omar was so hated in MN that she was going to not only lose her seat, but cost Biden the state?

paleoperson

Brian? wrote: »

Ordering? He can't order them to do anything.

He can direct that a recount takes place in a close election. It is standard practice and they couldn't refuse.

gmisk

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I can't dig it up but The Economist had an article on this. Apparently, for some states it's winner-takes-all and for others, electors are delegated in proportion to the distribution of the popular vote. That would make a lot more sense to me.

I think your right
I think 7ish EC votes went to people like Kasich or Paul in 2016.

Itssoeasy

paleoperson wrote: »

He can direct that a recount takes place in a close election. It is standard practice and they couldn't refuse.

He can request a recount. It can’t order or direct anything.

Brian?

paleoperson wrote: »

He can direct that a recount takes place in a close election. It is standard practice and they couldn't refuse.

No he can't, he has no authority over how states run their elections.


It's up to each secretary of state. Some states have a threshold for a recount. I think Florida is 1% margin. I think Wisonsin is 0.5% and so on.

The States run the elections, not the federal government. If they wanted to decide their EC votes by pie eating competition, there's nothing the Federal government can do about it.

JazzyJ

TomOnBoard wrote: »

This ^^^...

Imagine how we would feel in Ireland if our votes in an EU context were dictated solely by population? it's bad enough as it is, but we would never get a look in, if our perspectives were not shared by the large populations in the mainland.

Bad as the EC system may be, it is fundamental to the concept of a country being formed out of a set of States that are United, and not a single entity where California and New York together would dictate policy in every facet of life for the entire mid-West.

But the US senate gives each state an equal voice?