US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

BorneTobyWilde

Faugheen wrote: »

There isn’t a snowballs chance in hell Trump wins Wisconsin.

There is literally zero scenarios where he wins there if Biden is picking up Georgia. If Biden wins Georgia, he’s winning Wisconsin by double digits and is picking up Pennsylvania, North Carolina and possibly Florida too.

The amount of people who just go out on a whim here astounds me.

Yea well Polls had Clinton winning Wisconsin, supposedly 83.5% Clinton. That didn't work out too well. People in the sticks don't take polls.

Canice Picklington

droidus wrote: »

It depends a lot on NPA's, how many Rep's break for Biden and total turnout, however Wasserman says that if Trump is 62% or lower at their 7pm reporting dump then he's probably lost Florida and therefore the election.

Live updates on Florida here if anyone wants the real numbers:

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

I clicked into that link, it's Pinellas County, Florida, a big swing county on the west coast of Florida near Tampa.

In 2016 Trump won it 239k to 233k.

In 2012 Obama won it 239k to 213k.

It's currently at 72.30% turnout - 514k of an eligible 711k voters have voted.

Currently, Republican registered voters hold a very slender advantage over Democratic registered voters - 194k to 193k - just 762 of a gap in actual numbers.

118k registered independents have voted.

Just 58k of those 514k votes came today, though obviously there is half the day yet to go.

Of course a lot will depend on the independent voters - but based on those figures in a big swing county, I would be very cautiously optimistic for Biden?

Page is updating every ten minutes with new figures.

Thoughts?

Edit: For comparison: in 2016, 193k registered Republicans voted compared to 183k Democrats.

ELM327

MJohnston wrote: »

FF are only left-wing in an American sense. FF are centre-right for most things and Leo has FG heading off to the far right.

Here's a good couple of maps for you:

Labor on the right?
That discredits your entire post

droidus

Canice Picklington wrote: »

I clicked into that link, it's Pinellas County, Florida, a big swing county on the west coast of Florida near Tampa.

In 2016 Trump won it 239k to 233k.

In 2012 Obama won it 239k to 213k.

It's currently at 72.30% turnout - 514k of an eligible 711k voters have voted.

Currently, Republican registered voters hold a very slender advantage over Democratic registered voters - 194k to 193k - just 762 of a gap in actual numbers.

118k registered independents have voted.

Just 58k of those 514k votes came today, though obviously there is half the day yet to go.

Of course a lot will depend on the independent voters - but based on those figures in a big swing county, I would be very cautiously optimistic for Biden?

Page is updating every ten minutes with new figures.

Thoughts?

I don't know enough about Florida partisan voting time distribution TBH. At this stage I would say its potentially good, but we'll have to wait until midnight to know for sure. Certainly the chimes of doom from trump supporters seem misguided at this stage.

everlast75

Interesting decision by long suffering Judge Sullivan.


https://twitter.com/MMineiro_CNS/status/1323671683169984512?s=20


Hopefully it will result if more votes being counted.

Manic Moran

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The above tweet suggest that they don't have Miami data in the figures - If I understand the * comments.

Miami is heavily Democrat is it not?

Within 10%. (55-45)

Clinton did much better than the average Democrat there, looking at the 2016 results for Senator, representative, etc. She got some 64% of the Presidential vote, but that was not typical for the rest of the balloting.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/64620/184069/en/summary.html

Florida Hispanics tend to lean more Republican than those in other locations.

everlast75

In the age of soundbite sized news segments, this is fantastic


https://twitter.com/OmarBaddar/status/1323488979619139585?s=20

Jimbob1977

The American election system is flawed.

Voting allowed weeks before election day, counting postal ballots that are date stamped before Election Day.

Going through election rolls to disenfranchise voters.

It's a recipe for manipulation and fraud.

Professor Moriarty

everlast75 wrote: »

In the age of soundbite sized news segments, this is fantastic


https://twitter.com/OmarBaddar/status/1323488979619139585?s=20

Excellent.

Water John

Here is an interactive map from The Guardian. You can drill down into each county of a State.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

BonnieSituation

ELM327 wrote: »

Labor on the right?
That discredits your entire post

Almost all of your posts are discredited for constantly referring to Biden and Harris as "leftists".

There's a complete lack of nuance in the understanding of the political spectrum in Ireland which is clearly affected by your absorption of American norms.

You have to remember that a thread on a politics board in Ireland is likely to have a majority of posters fron a social democratic bent, y'know, cos Europe.

Outlaw Pete

everlast75 wrote: »

In the age of soundbite sized news segments, this is fantastic

I got as far as "He praised Neo-Nazis in Charlottesville as fine people" - seems some will never accept that President Trump said "and I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists because they should be condemned totally".

Meanwhile, in PA, they've at least started to take down some of the signs:


https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1323650244970647557

Canice Picklington

St. Pete polls released a poll of just Pinellas County, Florida yesterday - they're based in St. Petersburg, which is in the county - which put Biden 54-45 up.

Trump win it by 1-2% last time.

duploelabs

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The above tweet suggest that they don't have Miami data in the figures - If I understand the * comments.

Miami is heavily Democrat is it not?

And one of the most populous areas in the state.

BonnieSituation

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

I got as far as "He praised Neo-Nazis in Charlottesville as fine people" - seems some will never accept that President Trump said "and I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists because they should be condemned totally".

Meanwhile, in PA, they've at least started to take down some of the signs:



https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1323650244970647557

That should make a huge difference.

You're making such a big deal about these signs. It's almost like they're the most heinous crime commited in this election thus far.

Brussels Sprout

You often see people pop up and say things like "I'm no fan of Trump but...." whilst giving a full-throated support of Trump, his policies or tearing Biden to bits often while regurgitating talking points that are circulating in the Trump media universe.

The thing I wonder is, are they:

(a) adopting the facade of a neutral observer in the belief that this will make their opinions more credible than if they were not to declare that they were not a fan of Trump

or

(b) simply deluding themselves

astrofool

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

I got as far as "He praised Neo-Nazis in Charlottesville as fine people" - seems some will never accept that President Trump said "and I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists because they should be condemned totally".

Meanwhile, in PA, they've at least started to take down some of the signs:


https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1323650244970647557

Apparently not illegal as it wasn't near the voting room (still stupid, but their election laws a complete mess).

BonnieSituation

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

You often see people pop up and say things like "I'm no fan of Trump but...." whilst giving a full-throated support of Trump, his policies or tearing Biden to bits often while regurgitating talking points that are circulating in the Trump media universe.

The thing I wonder is, are they:

(a) adopting the facade of a neutral observer in the belief that this will make their opinions more credible than if they were not to declare that they were not a fan of Trump

or

(b) simply deluding themselves

After 4 years of this and looking at the boards residents, I'm gonna plump for the latter.

Water John

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

You often see people pop up and say things like "I'm no fan of Trump but...." whilst giving a full-throated support of Trump, his policies or tearing Biden to bits often while regurgitating talking points that are circulating in the Trump media universe.

The thing I wonder is, are they:

(a) adopting the facade of a neutral observer in the belief that this will make their opinions more credible than if they were not to declare that they were not a fan of Trump

or

(b) simply deluding themselves

Ah no, they simply believe they can delude you.

Tell me how

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

You often see people pop up and say things like "I'm no fan of Trump but...." whilst giving a full-throated support of Trump, his policies or tearing Biden to bits often while regurgitating talking points that are circulating in the Trump media universe.

The thing I wonder is, are they:

(a) adopting the facade of a neutral observer in the belief that this will make their opinions more credible than if they were not to declare that they were not a fan of Trump

or

(b) simply deluding themselves

(c) Driven by a hatred of all things liberal and don't care who the victor is, what they stand for as long as it isn't someone who conceivably could argue for people being treated fairly or there being a need for a change in environmental practices.

Quin_Dub

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Yea well Polls had Clinton winning Wisconsin, supposedly 83.5% Clinton. That didn't work out too well. People in the sticks don't take polls.

It's not about the polls it about the correlation - There's no scenario where Biden takes Georgia but loses Wisconsin , the dynamics of it just make no sense.

If Biden has enough to take Georgia a far "redder" states than WI , he doesn't lose WI.

Either he wins both , loses both or just wins Wisconsin narrowly.

thecretinhop

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

trump up 118k now

D.Q

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

trump up 118k now

Haha Joe is done in the domain name

Brian?

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

I got as far as "He praised Neo-Nazis in Charlottesville as fine people" - seems some will never accept that President Trump said "and I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists because they should be condemned totally".

Meanwhile, in PA, they've at least started to take down some of the signs:


https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/status/1323650244970647557

So the system works?

Why aren't you upset about the GOP trying to invalidate 117,000 votes in Texas? Or a North Carolina Sheriff pepper spraying black people marching to the polls.

Graham

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

trump up 118k now

I don't think those numbers mean what you think they mean.

VinLieger

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

trump up 118k now

No, 118k more republicans have voted than democrats so far.

circadian

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

trump up 118k now

LOL at the url, 100% trustworthy source I assume.

SimonTemplar

This is a handy page where you can see what times polls close in different state. You can select to see the times in London GMT.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/politics/polls-close.html

Another handy one is 538's analysis of each state regarding the counting of early mail ballots
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

Graham

circadian wrote: »

LOL at the url, 100% trustworthy source I assume.

Figures look reasonable.

Assumptions that they tell us how people actually voted don't.

namloc1980

thecretinhop wrote: »

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

trump up 118k now

What about the 2.2m unaffiliated? Are you excluding them altogether.