Trump vs Biden 2020, And the winner is.......... (pt 4) Read OP

Donald Trump

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

They are betting that Biden kicks the bucket or becomes incapacitated before inauguration day.

Dohnjoe

From the Guardian feed

The Guardian’s Nina Lakhani reports from Northampton county:

Allegany county, home to Pennsylvania’s second biggest city of Pittsburgh, has paused all counting until tomorrow morning due to a legal challenge over 29,000 ballots.

Another 6000 ballots, which are too creased for the scanner, will need to be counted manually and for some reason those won’t be done until tomorrow either.

Instead, staff will work on “administrative issues” and resume counting at 9am Friday. In total, around 35k ballots are still to be counted in Allegany county, which means it’s looking unlikely that we’ll get a result from Pennsylvania today.

Donald Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania currently stands at 115,000, down from 600,000 yesterday morning. In Philadelphia, where Joe Biden has a 80% lead, a whopping 17% of votes are still to be counted.

To win Pennsylvania, Biden must win 61-63% of the remaining uncounted votes, while Trump needs to win about 37 to 39%.

In short, Biden will be much happier right now.

J2CVC

sheeplover55 wrote: »

Bidens age more than anything

People didn't just realise his age. Something happened somewhere to trigger someone to bet. We might never know what it is, or we might learn later.

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

Too many talking heads on Fox with their whacky opinions. John King at the big board is much better.

I think they have over played him this election. Used to be they would get updates from him every half hour or so, this year its pretty much just him and the wolf droning on for hours and hours and hours and....

froog

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

novelty bets. they play around with the odds to get people to throw away their money. no doubt a few hundred people will throw money on her thinking joe is about to croak it. free money for bookies.

BringBackMick

J2CVC wrote: »

People didn't just realise his age. Something happened somewhere to trigger someone to bet. We might never know what it is, or we might learn later.

At those prices it just takes somebody to throw 20eur on her to move, people will be hedging their bets to cover all outcomes at this stage, people just sealing in profit across the market.

Overheal

2nd Georgia Senate race also to go to Runoff.

ArmaniJeanss

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

Depends on the terms of the market to an extent - if its next inaugurated president then presumably there's a non-zero chance of any 77 year-old man dying over the two month period between now & early January when Biden becomes prez.
Her odds have come in because if Trump had won then she had no chance, but now she does have that chance.

paleoperson

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

What do you mean "why", obviously if Biden is voted as president and becomes incapacitated (heart attack, assassination, another stroke they can't hide) Harris becomes president. The odds are shortening along with Biden's odds. It's still a few months until the next president is actually inaugurated.

eagle eye

hatrickpatrick wrote:

Correct. This election will ultimately hinge on Arizona IMO. I don't see PA or GA flipping to Biden the way others do and I definitely don't think Trump has a snowball's hope in hell of flipping NV. So ultimately it's going to depend on whether AZ flips or not.

Pennsylvania is going to be an easy win for Biden.

y0ssar1an22

the reason arizona was awared:


split current total
467,000.00 0.75 350,250.00 1,469,341.00 1,819,591.00 biden wins
0.25 116,750.00 1,400,951.00 1,517,701.00
86% counted -
or 0.7 326,900.00 1,469,341.00 1,796,241.00
2,869k 0.3 140,100.00 1,400,951.00 1,541,051.00 biden wins

0.65 303,550.00 1,469,341.00 1,772,891.00
0.35 163,450.00 1,400,951.00 1,564,401.00 biden wins
-
0.625 291,875.00 1,469,341.00 1,761,216.00
0.375 175,125.00 1,400,951.00 1,576,076.00 biden wins
-
0.615 287,205.00 1,469,341.00 1,756,546.00
0.385 179,795.00 1,400,951.00 1,580,746.00 biden wins
-
0.61 284,870.00 1,469,341.00 1,754,211.00
0.39 182,130.00 1,400,951.00 1,583,081.00 biden wins

0.60 280,200.00 1,469,341.00 1,749,541.00
0.40 186,800.00 1,400,951.00 1,587,751.00 biden wins

0.55 256,850.00 1,469,341.00 1,726,191.00
0.45 210,150.00 1,400,951.00 1,611,101.00 biden wins
-
0.525 245,175.00 1,469,341.00 1,714,516.00
0.475 221,825.00 1,400,951.00 1,622,776.00 biden wins

0.5 233,500.00 1,469,341.00 1,702,841.00
0.5 233,500.00 1,400,951.00 1,634,451.00 biden wins
-
0.45 210,150.00 1,469,341.00 1,679,491.00
0.55 256,850.00 1,400,951.00 1,657,801.00 biden wins
-
0.4 186,800.00 1,469,341.00 1,656,141.00
0.6 280,200.00 1,400,951.00 1,681,151.00 trump wins

trump needs about 58% of remaining to win

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1324406121721786369

J2CVC

froog wrote: »

novelty bets. they play around with the odds to get people to throw away their money. no doubt a few hundred people will throw money on her thinking joe is about to croak it. free money for bookies.

It's the exchange. Punters set the odds.

BringBackMick wrote: »

At those prices it just takes somebody to throw 20eur on her to move, people will be hedging their bets to cover all outcomes at this stage, people just sealing in profit across the market.

It really doesn't take just €20. It took thousands to get it down.

PalLimerick

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Depends on the terms of the market to an extent - if its next inaugurated president then presumably there's a non-zero chance of any 77 year-old man dying over the two month period between now & early January when Biden becomes prez.
Her odds have come in because if Trump had won then she had no chance, but now she does have that chance.

If Biden becomes "Prez".

y0ssar1an22

Overheal wrote: »

2nd Georgia Senate race also to go to Runoff.

that is a big deal! i had perdue needing nearly bang on 50% of remaining to win with the 50% majority.

that'd be a huge win for the dems

J2CVC

paleoperson wrote: »

What do you mean "why", obviously if Biden is voted as president and becomes incapacitated (heart attack, assassination, another stroke they can't hide) Harris becomes president. The odds are shortening along with Biden's odds. It's still a few months until the next president is actually inaugurated.

The started shortening quite suddenly. They are not shortening with Bidens.




I didn't think this would need so much explanation.

jjmcclure

Anyone else watching the odds on PP.


They seem to be heavily favoring Biden.


https://www.paddypower.com/politics/...-state-betting

Kermit.de.frog

Trump's lead in Georgia now just 0.27%. 98% of votes reported.

With Fox calling Arizona for Biden, they will be forced to declare Biden President if he gets Georgia or Nevada.

While CNN will still be waiting.

Trump will go banannas then.

froog

jjmcclure wrote: »

Anyone else watching the odds on PP.


They seem to be heavily favoring Biden.


https://www.paddypower.com/politics/...-state-betting

biden's been strong favourite since wednesday morning. the networks made it look much more close than it was.

y0ssar1an22

jjmcclure wrote: »

Anyone else watching the odds on PP.


They seem to be heavily favoring Biden.


https://www.paddypower.com/politics/...-state-betting

he's been about 1.10 for a while. think it all changed when the postal votes were counted.

Doctor Jimbob

Betting odds are changing because people are putting money on things. It doesn't mean anything is happening.

y0ssar1an22

froog wrote: »

biden's been strong favourite since wednesday morning. the networks made it look much more close than it was.

and i tend to agree with the sentiment someone mentioned - to keep the viewing figures up.

paleoperson

J2CVC wrote: »

The started shortening quite suddenly. They are not shortening with Bidens.

I didn't think this would need so much explanation.

Well maybe they figured it was some throwaway bet and didn't think much of it like that other poster was suggesting. They're in the business of politics after all, not life expectancy or disabilities. Then some smart punters saw their chance and started putting as much as they could on it and the bookmakers reacted.

Enquiring

J2CVC wrote: »

Some people are betting on Kamala Harris as next president, anyone know why?

She was 1000 (999/1) up until today (on Betfair). I noticed she moved to 880 a short while ago. She's now down to 400.

Edit: She's now down to 200

Maybe if the court cases etc are all done, then Biden might be in poor health? Outside bet but maybe that's what the thinking could be.

J2CVC

People don't understand the exchanges. That's fine.

y0ssar1an22

Enquiring wrote: »

Maybe if the court cases etc are all done, then Biden might be in poor health? Outside bet but maybe that's what the thinking could be.

there's no way that can happen. she doesn't become VP until biden is sworn in.

Kermit.de.frog

Trump is literally going to get people killed if he doesn't put down his phone. Dangerous and irresponsible to be riling gun totting elements of his base.

Donald Trump

J2CVC wrote: »

The started shortening quite suddenly. They are not shortening with Bidens.




I didn't think this would need so much explanation.

With odds that long, 1000-to-1, being given then the bookmaker will shorten them as soon as any sort of money starts coming in.



It would not take much money for them to shorten that down. It is a novelty bet.

funnydoggy

It still feels like election day.