50/50 splits in recent elections/ referendums

Esho

Looking at the current US election, the votes are split almost 50/50, there is no overwhelming majority either way.

The UK Brexit vote was also close - almost 50/50. Same with Poland's last election.

In these votes the split seems to be on "conservative", "traditional" or "majority ethnicity"/ exclusive versus "liberal", "progressive" or "inclusive" lines.

Looking at the marriage referendum, the split was 60/40 in Ireland.

Wierd that the split is so close.
I wonder why it is so close.
It it just that half of people are conservative and half are liberal?

riffmongous

It's a really bad sign for the future of democracy imo, that societies are becoming so evenly polarised.

I think the internet has allowed people access to data that confirms their worldviews and the ability to block out other arguments. That, couple with a lack of knowledge of history and the world around them, leads people to believe some silly things. Everyone believes they are righteous and their political opponents are "evil" and must be crushed.

I think Joe Rogan articulated it well. He said that the social norms and being civil in conversation took thousands of years to evolve and be refined. In contrast, the internet is relatively new, there is no widely agreed upon code of etiquette and norms. Hopefully people will eventually communicate online the same way they would in real life. When that happens, there may be more of a focus on what unites us rather than divides us, and politics can be more constructive rather than the current blood sport win/lose model.

riffmongous

riffmongous wrote: »

It's a really bad sign for the future of democracy imo, that societies are becoming so evenly polarised.

I feel as though someone in Russia is loving all this chaos in the West while stroking a white cat.

statesaver

Russia and China are laughing.

Gregor Samsa

Esho wrote: »

Looking at the marriage referendum, the split was 60/40 in Ireland.

Wierd that the split is so close.

It was 62/38, and that’s not close. There’s a 24 point different between the two. That’s substantial by any measure.

The referendum to repeal the 8th amendment was 66.4/33.6, which means the difference between Yes and No was the same as what No got in total. That’s approaching landslide territory.

Last year’s referendum on divorce (38th amendment) was a whopping 82/18 - an absolute landslide for Yes.

I think you’re being a bit selective only picking elections that were close to 50/50 and then claiming that this is a pattern for all of them.

Donald Trump

Things will naturally gravitate towards 50%.

Suppose you are on one side or the other. You might have to move your policies a little more towards the centre in order to gain the critical mass to get power and be able to implement your decisions. The more you move towards that other side, the more you can potentially pull in, but the further you get away from where you want to be.

So your optimum is just 50% + 1 vote

Esho

Gregor Samsa wrote: »

It was 62/38, and that’s not close. There’s a 24 point different between the two. That’s substantial by any measure.

The referendum to repeal the 8th amendment was 66.4/33.6, which means the difference between Yes and No was the same as what No got in total. That’s approaching landslide territory.

Last year’s referendum on divorce (38th amendment) was a whopping 82/18 - an absolute landslide for Yes.

I think you’re being a bit selective only picking elections that were close to 50/50 and then claiming that this is a pattern for all of them.

Agreed, the 8th and Divorce were not close.

But in an Irish context 60/40 is not the same as the difference between the 8th.

Also the Irish context of divorce and abortion are different from the other cases I cited.