Trump vs Biden 2020, Day 64 of the Pennsylvania count (pt 5) Read OP

Overheal

Sawduck wrote: »

So after the longest, most drawn out election ever, has trump finally lost? Is it finally over? Its about time

No actually.

Not even the longest in 20 years. Bush v Gore

And that was far from the longest election, either

In the 1800 Presidential election

At the end of a long and bitter campaign, Jefferson and Burr each won 73 electoral votes, Adams won 65 electoral votes, and Pinckney won 64 electoral votes. The Federalists swept New England, the Democratic-Republicans dominated the South, and the parties split the Mid-Atlantic states of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.

The Democratic-Republicans' failure to execute their plan to award Jefferson one more vote than Burr resulted in a tie, which necessitated a contingent election in the House of Representatives. Under the terms laid out in the Constitution, the outgoing House of Representatives chose between Jefferson and Burr. Burr was accused of campaigning for the presidency himself in the contingent election despite being a member of Jefferson's party. Each state delegation cast one vote, and a victory in the contingent election required one candidate to win a majority of the state delegations. Neither Burr nor Jefferson was able to win on the first 35 ballots of the contingent election, as most Federalist Congressmen backed Burr and all Democratic-Republican Congressmen backed Jefferson. Hamilton personally favored Jefferson over Burr, and he convinced several Federalists to switch their support to Jefferson, giving Jefferson a victory on the 36th ballot of the contingent election.

The 36th ballot was ran on February 17, 1801. And because each state had their own election days at the time, some states had voted as early as April 1800. So really, the election took approximately 10 months. Just the voting process, not the campaigning.

jesus

youd rather covid, wouldnt you?

at least they hadn't 24hr news i guess

road_high

Deleted User wrote: »

well and good until you go to trump with the bill....many let down over the years at that point

Yea- it’s been hinted he’ll struggle to get any top brass to bother taking it on. Oh dear!

Kermit.de.frog

Biden lead in PA now 22k.

It will be called at 34k.

Overheal

Deleted User wrote: »

jesus

youd rather covid, wouldnt you?

at least they hadn't 24hr news i guess

They had dysentery.



Biden to speak tonight regardless of the results in motion.

"Biden is expected to speak tonight regardless of the status of the uncalled races, campaign officials say." - NYT

Maricopa County Arizona to release more tabulation imminently according to earlier reports.

Overheal

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Biden lead in PA now 22k.

It will be called at 34k.

Why?

jill_valentine

Overheal wrote: »

No actually.

Not even the longest in 20 years. Bush v Gore

And that was far from the longest election, either

In the 1800 Presidential election

The 36th ballot was ran on February 17, 1801. And because each state had their own election days at the time, some states had voted as early as April 1800. So really, the election took approximately 10 months. Just the voting process, not the campaigning.

****ing hell when I died of Wandering Pox or something at 22 I'd have welcomed the sweet release of death.

Overheal

Those numbers just dropped.

Biden has maintained a 0.9% lead (down from 1.1%) of 29,861 votes. 97% Reporting Arizona.

jill_valentine

Overheal wrote: »

Why?

From what I understand Kornacki said they won't call it until then because that's over the recount margin.

Strumms

Deleted User wrote: »

could say the same for many highly respected republican figures tbf

eight years of Obama, the problems inherent in their society and the pressure from the tea party pulled that whole party into madness

trump as much an outcome as a driver

Most certainly the outcome.

You had probably the most left leaning, both domestically and internationally president in decades if not ever, get two successful terms, only for the Dems get criminally complacent and it ridiculously wrong with Hillary... the Democratic Party fûcked up, it should have been Biden straight after Obama but his son was terminally ill when the dems were looking for nominations. Still needed to look beyond Clinton.

Overheal

Cameras are spooling up now in Wilmington DE where Biden is poised to make a public address.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dk7WG0Ovdr0

I doubt he will claim victory but will speak about his lead and to be patient with the process which could easily run up to next tuesday (and beyond)

jill_valentine

This feels like one of the Black Mirror episodes where you find out the person is secretly a baby killer or something so they've been trapped in the same horrible moment for 90 million years.

All the networks, analysts and commentators know that Biden has won.

They say they need to be 100% certain but that isn't what a projection is about.

They are not calling it because of the very unique circumstances which Trump always surrounds himself.

Like a spoiled child gets treated differently.

They are afraid to call it.

sheeplover55

Overheal wrote: »

Cameras are spooling up now in Wilmington DE where Biden is poised to make a public address.

[youtsssube]Dk7WG0Ovdr0[/youtube]

I doubt he will claim victory but will speak about his lead and to be patient with the process which could easily run up to next tuesday (and beyond)

Every little counts I guess..

They've known it's in the bag two days now but I guess trying to be diplomatic about it, and prob 5% fearful of Trump and what he's capable of

jill_valentine

Overheal wrote: »

Cameras are spooling up now in Wilmington DE where Biden is poised to make a public address.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dk7WG0Ovdr0

I doubt he will claim victory but will speak about his lead and to be patient with the process which could easily run up to next tuesday (and beyond)

Fun explanation of this that I've seen several legit US journalists make with completely straight faces - being of Irish extraction, naturally Biden is inherently superstitous and doesn't want to jinx it. :pac:

Kermit.de.frog

Overheal wrote: »

Why?

34k is outside the .5% recount margin.

cefh17

jill_valentine wrote: »

This feels like one of the Black Mirror episodes where you find out the person is secretly a baby killer or something so they've been trapped in the same horrible moment for 90 million years.

Or the Christmas one

Feels like it's close to victory for Biden everydayyyyy

Overheal

Deleted User wrote: »

All the networks, analysts and commentators know that Biden has won.

They are not calling it because of the very unique circumstances which Trump always surrounds himself.

Like a spoiled child gets treated differently.

They are afraid to call it.

I'm looking at the same numbers and I'm also afraid to call it.

Because we don't know how provisional ballots will fall. And there's still tends of thousands of them, enough to change the narrative in PA for instance.

Call Me Jimmy

Deleted User wrote: »

jesus

youd rather covid, wouldnt you?

at least they hadn't 24hr news i guess

Just thinking about that now, I can only imagine how much our brains are fried from all this. I'm picturing someone way back when on their farm getting the news once a day and having a good ole think on it throughout the day and go to sleep. An opinion has time to form and come to a conclusion...

now it's just BALHAHDAHDHAHDAHDHAHD. I came back to boards for the election (last time I was using it a lot was when covid was breaking out of china) but I notice it really does get addictive and the mind gets a lot more scattered when ye over do it (he says at 2 am )

i think that all parties are hoping that a delay allows time for any reasonable republicans left to manage or influence the white house, while also allowing greater and greater margins of victory become apparent to ensure that the odds of successful legal challenge dwindle

has to be balanced against the damage an unchallenged trump narrative does to the institutions, and the obvious threat of trouble from his more unhinged adherents

briany

Guess what's not going to happen? Donald Trump winning the 2020 election.

It doesn't matter how many right-wing conspiracy theorists agree with one another. The evidence to mount any kind of serious court case isn't there, and already legal challenges have been struck down decisively.

A recurring theme is that right-wing conspiracies crumble like a sand castle when put under any professional legal scrutiny, e.g Alex Jones' claim that Sandyhook was a hoax designed to garner support for gun control.

Count every vote? Absolutely. But at the end of that process, Biden looks a mathematical certainty to win.

Strumms

Looks like his own party is fücking him under the bus, and the last vote isnt even counted, but in fairness they should...Mitt Romney, Senator Pat Toomey, Governor Larry Hogan...

“America is counting the votes, and we must respect the results as we always have before. No election or person is more important than our democracy."

Will Hurd..

“A sitting president undermining our political process and questioning the legality of the voices of countless Americans without evidence is not only dangerous and wrong.”

"It undermines the very foundation this nation was built upon. Every American should have his or her vote counted."

jill_valentine

Overheal wrote: »

I'm looking at the same numbers and I'm also afraid to call it.

Because we don't know how provisional ballots will fall. And there's still tends of thousands of them, enough to change the narrative in PA for instance.

Had a mild freak out about PA when Kornacki said that 100k thing, so I looked into it a bit and now I'm a bit pissed off he even suggested it.

So, Kornacki suggested the provisionals were all strongly trending Trump. This was true, but the only counties who had returned that data at the time were counties Trump had won in regular in-person voting already, and even then they were slightly below the same breakdown in his favour.

Provisionals in PA can't be counted until the mail ins are, so areas that got the most mail ins have to count them last. This means that areas with the most mail ins, ie the Bideny ones, will end up counting theirs later. 40k of the remaining provisionals he was talking about are in Philly alone, and most of the others from tranches that give Biden the edge too.

So basically the majority of provisionals left are expected to tilt towards Biden at best, and fall far short of eating his lead at worst -

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324884881399312385

I have to conclude Kornacki is looking for reasons not to be the one to call it.

Overheal

Overheal wrote: »

I'm looking at the same numbers and I'm also afraid to call it.

Because we don't know how provisional ballots will fall. And there's still tends of thousands of them, enough to change the narrative in PA for instance.

I understand that, but beyond Arizona,, possibly Georgia, there is really no logical way that Trump is pulling back Pensylvania or Nevada.

Overheal

briany wrote: »

Count every vote? Absolutely. But at the end of that process, Biden looks a mathematical certainty to win.

Not yet mathematically certain though. Estimating here that ~175k ballots remain uncounted in Arizona. Trump could still win there.

If things stayed exactly as they are Biden would win by 32k votes there but this gap is shrinking. Assumed the total votes per county based on reporting estimate and assumed the trend remained flat (which it isn't).

County Trump Biden Counted % Trump Est. Biden Est.
Apache 7491 16574 0.72 10404.16667 23019.44444
Navajo 27417 23217 0.9 30463.33333 25796.66667
Coconino 26519 44103 0.98 27060.20408 45003.06122
Mohave 77724 24687 0.98 79310.20408 25190.81633
La Paz 4542 2050 0.95 4781.052632 2157.894737
Yuma 34951 30658 0.95 36790.52632 32271.57895
Yavapai 90280 49111 0.98 92122.44898 50113.26531
Gila 18375 8943 0.98 18750 9125.510204
Graham 10747 4034 0.98 10966.32653 4116.326531
Greenlee 2433 1182 0.98 2482.653061 1206.122449
Cochise 31265 21980 0.89 35129.21348 24696.62921
Santa Cruz 6179 13121 0.93 6644.086022 14108.60215
Pima 197183 295049 0.95 207561.0526 310577.8947
Pinal 88597 65355 0.82 108045.122 79701.21951
Maricopa 950503 1004003 0.96 990107.2917 1045836.458

1660617.681 1692921.491

32303.80935

true, but that could be irrelevant with PA call, for instance

Overheal

Deleted User wrote: »

true, but that could be irrelevant with PA call, for instance

Sure. I'm not tabulating that all out for PA, too many counties, not arsed.

KungPao

I think it’s safe to say we’ll all miss The Donald in the White House.

Godspeed, old friend.

All the best.

Kermit.de.frog

Kayleigh McEnany being called out by reporters. All these people face investigation by the Department of Justice when this is over. They have destroyed their credibility for Donald Trump.

https://twitter.com/joelockhart/status/1324885750018695168

Overheal

KungPao wrote: »

I think it’s safe to say we’ll all miss The Donald in the White House.

Godspeed, old friend.

All the best.

Not safe to say at all. He can eat **** off my balls and die :pac: