Racing Uncertainties

but1er

Deleted User wrote: »

Pity that - annoying alright when one doesn't back a winning selection,,,

this is great tough working from home nothing else to do. very entertaining to follow it.

And Karannelle finishes down the field in the 3.50; having been in contention for a lot of the race... Chelmsford to come, with the first selection going in just under an hour... Pretty good day for the thread so far

And Dors Toyboy comes 2nd in a thrilling finish 4.55; beaten only a neck - another place, and keeps thread ticking over nicely for the day

No joy in the 5.30 - Gracie's went for home challenging Little Floozie; I think, about 2 1/2fs out, but faded in the last furlong...

14/01

Running P & L + 14.3pts

Invested (not including Catterick, as that whole meeting was abandoned) 33pts. 3.20 Lime Drop NR @ 2pts. 31pts in play

Returns:

1.30 Hasankey (done e/w) places at 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts
1.30 Gustavian (done win @ 15/8) wins returning 1.8pts
3.30 Inspireus (done e/w @ 22/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 25p rule 4 returning 4.3pts
3.20 Lexi's Choice (done e/w) places at 100/1 at a fifth the odds *returning 21pts
4.55 Dors Toyboy (done e/w @ 8/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.6pts

*I was expecting a 10p rule 4 (trying to keep an eye on NRs at time/and after bet placed to gauge likely returns) but none applied.. Perhaps horse was NR before bet was put on. 21pts was my return in this instance anyway.

Total in play 31pts - returns 32.7pts

Profit for the day 1.7pts

Running invested total - 1,173 pts

Total P & L + 16pts

15/01

12.40 Newcastle Iconic Belle 33/1 e/w
1.10 Newcastle Splash Of Verve 5/1 e/w
5.00 Southwell Makambe 4/1 e/w

1.40 Newcastle Archippos 20/1 e/w

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Time for a few AP bets

Grand National Burrows Saint 18/1 e/w (1/5 1-5)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Santini 10/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
2000 Guineas Battleground 8/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
Derby High Definition 6/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)

The two flat races are in May and June, so I would say by then things should be okay travel wise for the Irish contingent.

GN in April, so that looks good too.

If Santini turns up, he's definitely good enough to be involved in the Gold Cup. Too good imo to be going to a National; at least yet.

Deleted User wrote: »

Another one for the AP list

Waiting Patiently in the Ryanair Cheltenham. 12/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3)

10yrs old now is Ruth Jefferson's stable star. Never ran before at Cheltenham; never mind the festival. This horse is surely running out of time to get a Cheltenham festival win - has been in the betting for various races at the Prestbury Park venue this last few years without showing up.

Off for just over a year when finishing a good second in the King George at Kempton last month. Horse does carry a health warning for punting purposes, as could well go to Ascot, or Aintree (assuming racing goes ahead) for one of the big races at either of those meets, which flank the Cheltenham festival.

Horse is also entered in Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but I hope the Ryanair is the likely target. 12s is good enough for me, and am happy to take a chance he'll go for O'Leary's race..

Reserve Tank 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3) Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham
Well, he has an entry, and was alright over the sticks a while back - hasn't ran in over a year though.. A big priced winner in this last year too,

Not great yesterday - was looking good going into Chelmsford, when I figured I was even or close to, at that point. Thought I had a few with proper chances, but alas only the one placer. That's the way it goes. I haven't even looked at tomorrow's jumps meets, as they could well be abandoned the way things are going.

That leaves Kempton, and Lingfield, and they don't look too appealing either. Have a speculative one I'm looking at at Kempton tomorrow, and I hope 12s can be got like the probable SP under the racecard; but it'll probably be something measly like 13/2 Will see what the prices are like tonight..

What a sh1t time to be a "racefan" (racefan my ass many would say :pac: , if there was no punting involved I wouldn't be one, but as there is; regardless of my reasons for being so, I am indeed a "racefan") with all the fixtures being called off, and no bookies open to have a proper shout at the telly :mad: It's not the same at home, where one is more limited in how they can roar, or fk the jockey out of it... Unless ya live in the middle of nowhere, that is :(

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

15/01

12.40 Newcastle Iconic Belle 33/1 e/w
1.10 Newcastle Splash Of Verve 5/1 e/w
5.00 Southwell Makambe 4/1 e/w

No joy with the first two - Iconic Belle travelling well, and challenging round the home bend, but didn't really stay, and finished a well beaten 4th... Wasn't watching Splash Of Verve's race, but was well beaten coming 2nd last

4.10 Newcastle Primo's Comet 5/1 win

3.10n Majestic Tejaan win 9/1

Bit of value this outsider in this 4 runner event methinketh

6.00 Southwell Kit's Allanah 15/2 win

Hoping she'll get to the front, and stay there

A decent run at Chelmsford last time, when getting ran out of it at the end. Expecting better today, in that she'll be harder to peg back at this course... If all goes to plan that is; hence win only

15/01

Running P & L + 16pts

Invested 11pts

Returns: none

Total in play 11pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 11pts

Running invested total - 1,184 pts

Total P & L + 5pts

16/01

8.20 Kempton Sepahi 14/1 e/w

Has won over 7 before, and goes well at the course over six on the declared standard to slow going. Is a two time course winner (over 6fs) , and in the races she's won here, she does seem to be doing her best work late on. I think she's worth a bet here, with Probert up; who's won on her three times.

Warwick
3.00 Red Infantry 33/1 e/w
3.35 Flemcara 8/1 e/w

2.05 Market Rasen Rowland Ward 7/1 win

Not out of it this fella I think. A small field, and heavy going should suit. Looks like Oscars Leader will take them along at a good clip, so am expecting a true run race - may the best horse win, and let's hope it's the selection

3.50 Market Rasen Wye Aye 13/2 e/w

Only his third chase start, and just 6. He ran very well in the first two; winning one, and coming second in the other. Won one of those at the course over slightly shorter on good ground, although softish ground is fine too, as he came third here in a hurdles race on ground with a bit of give just over a year ago at today's trip. I'm hoping with the track, trip, and it being only his third chase start; that he'll not be inconvenienced by heavy. I expect him to give a good account today.

Gluck

12.55 MR Bring The Bacon 20/1 e/w

Came 6th lto in a decent time. Bitta value here for 1 of the 2 plcs

1.05 F'hse Atlantic Adventure 33/1 e/w... Give this one a squeak on her hurdles bow

Nothing so far

Rowland Ward a good second, but 2nd no good Things will pick up I'm sure :P

One selection left = one lives in hope... Mon Sepahi in 3hrs toime :pac:

16/01

Running P & L + 5pts

Invested 13pts

Returns: none

Total in play 13pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 13pts

Running invested total - 1,197 pts

Total P & L - 8pts

17/01

3.35 Southwell Bellevarde 20/1 e/w

Drifting this Mare, but been a while since she ran here, and is a C & D winner. Has also won at around this time of the year, as that race was in January 2019. Mainly races over 5fs, and is back at 6 today. Recent runs been poor enough - a lot of pace on here today, and I believe that will suit, if she retains any of her ability..

12.50 Punchestown Asterion Forlonge win 9/4

^^^

It's either lump on the jolly Envoi (at 1/2 it would have no place in this thread :P ) , back the 2nd fav , or no bet.

Not much to go on really; but putting him up as a selection, as it's a "Clash of the Titans" sorta encounter. Both of them have had two chase runs, but the selection ASTERION FORLONGE is the only one to have won at the distance on heavy over the larger obstacles on heavy going, and that was in a fast time.

Envoi Allen's win was on soft, and in a slower time (albeit; over about 70yds further, but the race was clocked in a slowish time) , if one allows for the slight difference in distance (70yds doesn't equate to 10 secs) , though they were at two different courses, and the jolly today only beat what he had to.

The selection also has 11lbs less to carry.. I didn't even look at the other three contenders :pac: :pac: figuring it's just a 2-horse race...

Gluck Looks like a hard day for finding winners.

2.05 Southwell Hotspur Harry 12/1 win

A bit of a punt the selection. Having his 3rd run in Blighty having come from Joey's the far side of the pond. Never ran before at Southwell, tried to make all at Wolves over the extended mile lto when finishing 5th. I think this 4yr old could potentially be "unexposed" , so at a nice price is worth a win bet from me.

Gluck all

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

12.50 Punchestown Asterion Forlonge win 9/4

Falls - at the first

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

2.05 Southwell Hotspur Harry 12/1 win

A bit of a punt the selection. Having his 3rd run in Blighty having come from Joey's the far side of the pond. Never ran before at Southwell, tried to make all at Wolves over the extended mile lto when finishing 5th. I think this 4yr old could potentially be "unexposed" , so at a nice price is worth a win bet from me.

Gluck all

Not today

2.50 Pun Castlegrange 13/2 e/w

3.05 Sth Going Native 40/1 e/w to nab a place in this trappy affair, with just 6 going to post - 1st be nice, but 2nd ok too

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

2.50 Pun Castlegrange 13/2 e/w

Strange what happened there, some (2 I think) loose horses caused a few to be brought out; but not the selection, who for some strange reason veered to his left (maybe he was lonely in front, or following the crowd :P) , and the jockey pulled him up..

17/01

Running P & L -8pts

Invested 8pts

Returns: none

Total in play 8pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 8pts

Running invested total - 1,205 pts

Total P & L -16pts

18/01

3.00 Ayr Timeless Beauty 9/2 e/w
3.45 Punchestown Glenabo Bridge 8/1 e/w

Luck all

1.55 Ayr Buddha Scheme 8/1 e/w
A good price to hopefully nab one of the two spots. An open affair this.

8.10 Wol Clay Regazzoni 9/1 e/w
Another of the thread 'standing dishes' , and yet to oblige (for the thread, that is )... The extended 9fs might be a bit on the stiff side, but he handles these tapeta surfaces well, and is down into a Class 6 for the first time in over a year. Is a decent enough price to make him an e/w, and not a win only selection. Has drifted quite a bit today, but at a fair price now anyhow...

Gluck

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

1.55 Ayr Buddha Scheme 8/1 e/w
A good price to hopefully nab one of the two spots. An open affair this.

2nd - Was up towards the front all the way ,and Looked like he had repelled the last of the challengers after jumping the last; only for one to come way out the back of the telly, and nab him as he was paddling his way home... Winner traded over 800/1 in running, I think (no good to us ). Was sure I had the winner there, but not to be.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

18/01

3.00 Ayr Timeless Beauty 9/2 e/w
3.45 Punchestown Glenabo Bridge 8/1 e/w

Luck all

Hup!

And the 7/2 jolly wins easy to give Heskin a double (just backed that one, but happy out) , as he goes wide for a lot of the race - presumably for better ground - to take it up between 3 and 2 out; or thereabouts, and wins by 6+ lgths, or so..

Think the commentator was worried about this one (one can usually tell, as when she merely dropped back a position/length or two, he was sort of "bigging up" the fact that she was 'not travelling well' / 'losing a position, or two' / 'falling/going back' etc etc.. Subtle enough, but this punter feels that he had something else backed, and probably perceived the selection as being "one of the dangers" :pac:

3.35 Ayr The Pine Martin 18/1 e/w
Has a tiny squeak

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

18/01

3.00 Ayr Timeless Beauty 9/2 e/w
3.45 Punchestown Glenabo Bridge 8/1 e/w

Luck all

Hup ya daisy Barry Browne - and a lovely ride to win easy... A great drift out to 11/1 too.... We is happy on thread

7.40 Wolves First Dance 11/1 e/w

A good race for EW backers I think, as a few have chances. I think the Scott Dixon horse Visibility at 3/1 gen is the one to beat if he can replicate his C & D performance lto (plenty more weight on his back tonight though, as he has a penalty to carry, and perhaps most interesting is the fact that he drops into a Class 6 from a Class 5). Arabic Welcome is the well backed fav at 11/4 gen, but hard to assess his chances on only his fourth ever run, and stepping up in trip from his 3rd at Newcastle lto.

Enough reason to go looking for something at a decent price in this, and I think the selection FIRST DANCE can go well here tonight. This 7yr old Mare is having her third run on the back of a year long absence. The first two of those (over C & D) were nothing special, where she was decisively beaten in both, when taking a somewhat circuitous route going wide in both. Her latest run (over about a furlong shorter) was a bit better, as she got more involved, but was unlucky enough in running, and finished 3rd having been held up out the back.

All three of her recent outings were over Class 5's , and she drops back to a Class 6 tonight.

Gluck all

^^^
If I waited 5 mins longer, I'd've gotten 14s on opening show - very nice price methinks

:mad:

re the 7.40 - Sullivan had his mount perfectly placed throughout; on the rail, in 4th or 5th; only a few lengths off the lead. Was travelling well 3-4 furlongs out, but wasn't very interested in making much use of the selection. Drifted out to 18s too - I guess tonight wasn't the day. Rancid imo. Hard to say if she'd have won, but a place would have done me, and anything else a bonus..

He waits until the home turn to make the "trying to get the best place possible" shapes... Too late then - came effin 4th, beaten less than a head for a place... I'm gonna say it again - RANCID :mad:

18/01

Running P & L -16pts

Invested 12pts

Returns:

1.55 Buddha Scheme (done e/w at 8/1) places at a quarter the odds returning 3pts
3.00 Timeless Beauty (done e/w at 9/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 7.4pts
3.45 Glenabo Bridge (done e/w) wins at 11/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 15.2pts

Total in play 12pts - returns 25.6pts

Profit for the day 13.6pts

Running invested total - 1,217 pts

Total P & L -2.4pts

19/01

2.45 Exeter Miss Honey Ryder 12/1 e/w
3.55 Fakenham Always Able 18/1 e/w , Midnight Mary 10/1 e/w

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

19/01

2.45 Exeter Miss Honey Ryder 12/1 e/w
3.55 Fakenham Always Able 18/1 e/w , Midnight Mary 10/1 e/w

Fakenham off

3.35 Clonmel Cluan Dara 25/1 e/w

Has won before on Heavy, and came 2nd over C & D in October on soft.

3.35 Clonmel will also do Carnet De Stage 25/1 e/w here. Just a hunch.

2.05 Clonmel De Milano 28/1 e/w