Racing Uncertainties

4.30 Southwell Fortuitous 9/4 win , Ebqaa 40/1 e/w

6.00 Southwell Chelsea Showcase 100/1 e/w

5.30 Southwell Unashamed 18/1 e/w

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

29/12

Southwell

6.30 Giogiobbo 5/4 Win
Should win

Plenty of 11/4 now for this one- too big imo to not back.....have backed it again myself

^^^^^^^

Still 1pt win,, Going in again don't count for tred

^^^^



Ran a poor race, and faded tamely

Poor again today.... Will update later.

30/12

3.50 Taunton Diamon Des Flos 14/1 e/w

This one I really like - racecourse corr. when he sees money come tomorrow :pac: :pac:

.... By Balko, he should relish this heavy going. His second run after his bumper outing, where he ran keen.... I see Evan's gone with the first time hood today.... Definitely couldn't rule out Harry Fry's 'Millbank' , and Philip Hobbs' 'Stellar Magic' ; who's having his first run over hurdles... Also, Paul Nicholls' 'Time To Tinker' can't be ruled out either [because, well basically the trainer and his price (If it was a smaller trainer; me, the racecourse correspondent wouldn't even give him a mention, as his form aint up to much on a surface level; which goes without saying. ) ] .. He's by Stowaway is the Nicholls' horse, and should relish these underfoot conditions in his first run in a handicap... :pac:

The above para were just me having a giraffe re the likely sh1ttalk before the race tomorrow, in anticipation of some money for Evan Williams' horse - which would be a good enough reason for 'course correspondent' coming out with rubbish like the above, should he be punted on... Hardly a word otherwise
I predict "I'm liking the look/profile of this Evan Williams' horse which has seen some money " - (as if the horse 'seeing money' is merely an afterthought :pac::pac::pac: )


Anyhoo, for all them mules mentioned, it's just the 1 each way bet for the threadstarter...

Have a few picked out for Wolves, and will put them up; either anon, or forthwith

Wolves

Have had a good luke at this meet, and they've all got live chances afaic...
All each way these

3.30 Lady Fatma 5/1

4.05 Bringing Glory 10/1

4.40 Little Red Socks 22/1

5.10 plumette 8/1 , Alfie's Angel 10/1

5.40 Blue Whisper 12/1 , Mayson Mount 11/2

6.10 De Vegas Kid 6/1 , Apex King 20/1

6.40 Banoffee 14/1 , Zarina Grande 6/1

Just an observation, and I'm not on the exchanges, but the fav in the 4.05 Wolves Quiteacatch is pretty short, at a best-priced 2/1. A 'Place lay' mightn't be a bad bet - if she can be done at around 1.2 - 1.3 , or less (not sure what the price of the pl. lay is, as I've never done owt on the exchanges, so only guessing).

I don't think she'll stay this 7fs, and she has a tendency to race keenly, so at 1.3 or shorter I'd have a go....

29/12

Running P & L -50.1pts

Invested 27pts. Late Date 3.07 NR @ 2pts, Zeyzoun 4.30 NR @ 2pts. 23pts in play.

Returns:

11.40 Gipsy Lee Rose places at 5/1 at a quarter the odds returning 2.2pts
12.12 Deluxe Range (done e/w at 4/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 6.8pts
3.07 Scoop The Pot (done e/w at 11/4) places at a fifth the odds with a 15p rule 4 returning 1.4pts

Total in play 23pts - returns 10.4pts

Loss for the day 12.6pts

Running invested total - 906pts

Total P & L -62.7pts

Not at all good recently. At one stage the thread was up ~15%, and now alas, it's at about a 7% deficit.

Am due a bit of a run - in the next 350-400pts (if it lasts that long) I'd like to be at >5% profit. A lowly enough ambition, but quite a few points to claw back, and don't want to set sights too high...

I will keep trying anyway

A few more at Wolves

All of em each way

2.25 El Hombre 5/1, Top Breeze 7/2, Diamond Dougal 14/1

Hoping El Hombre can come from off the likely strong pace... That Top Breeze is good enough to lie up with the pace, and pull ahead at the end... As for Diamond Dougal, he's 1 from 1 at the course, but is drawn wide in 9; so, as a likely frontrunner/race prominently type I'm relying on Richard Kingscote to get him into a race-winning position which won't be easy as there will be a lot of competition early on for possies.

I think El Hombre has the best chance here because he should have plenty of room to do his own thing in mid-div, or out the back, and barring trouble in running at the end he should go very close... Top Breeze could be ahead of the handicapper, and Tyler Heard takes 7 off.... Diamond Dougal is more of a punt really given how the race is likely to pan out, but nonetheless; on form, is definitely good enough to be there or thereabouts.

The ones at the top of the betting I don't like are
Lomu (3/1 fav) as he's not the most reliable and; should he get to the front, I don't fancy he'll like the company

Zapper Cass (best price 7/1).. Nothing about this fella I'm liking. I think he has no chance at the weights.. Can't afford to go wide (drawn 7) like the last time when he ran (and won) here over the same trip two runs back. It was a Class 4 that day, and he was drawn 10.. The time of the race would give him no chance in a race like this.. I think (at this level - Class 3 handicap) that he's a 5f Southwell horse.. I also don't like his jockey 'Midge' Mullen - but that's just me

Them two look like place lay propositions to me. Not sure what they are on the exchanges, but Lomu at 2.0 or shorter, and Mullen's mount at 2.5 or less would tempt me... Haven't a clue about Betfair, and those prices could be way off. The books would probably have Lomu around 4/6-8/11 I reckon, and Zapper Cass at 11/8-6/4 I presume to be in top three; but higher odds would be needed if one wants to lay them.

Astro Jakk (8/1) is not without a chance, but I think he is up against it in this company. Wouldn't be a backer or a layer.

Sun Power (8/1) who's having his second run for Jane Chapple-Hyam has no appeal either for me on his overall profile.

I think this is shaping up to be a proper competitive sprint, and my main hope is that after the race has taken a shape at 2 - 2 1/2 furlongs in, that at least two of my selections are in contention.

4.05 Trepidation 12/1

4.40 Sepahi 20/1

Gluck anyone who's having a go

I might try and find a few more yet :pac:

4.40 Wolves Araifjan 11/4 e/w

A little short perhaps for each way, but I think if Kingscote gets him out in front that he'll go very close. At bigger prices I've already selected Sepahi, and Little Red Socks in this.

12.35 Taunton

A 17 runner Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle where anything I feel can happen. Some might go off too fast etc.. , and perhaps the two shortpriced (around 5/2) favs might underperform.. The excellent Kevin Brogan takes part, and his mount has seen some money.. With 5 places available I'm gonna select 5 - some with better chances than others - and I'm going to leave out the Brogan horse 'Get The Appeal' , as I'm not getting it... I hope I'm wrong, but I think folk are just latching on to the jockey here.

I've picked the 5 using a combination of up with the pace... come from behind performers, and horses who have either won over the course/trip/going in the past - well obviously I suppose, but mainly trip and ground. Hard to know how the race is going to pan out, and, maybe they'll go too hard in front and fade/ the ones being held up might have too much ground to make up late on etc,, So I might have a couple in with a shout 3 out with some either still towards the front, or some staying on late - hopefully both

Cases can be made for 4 of them, and the other one's a punt.

Haasab 20/1 , Gulshanigans 40/1 , Tactical Manoeuvre 10/1 , Russian Service 15/2 ,and Seasearch 50/1 the biggest priced of these, and a 'punt' , but there are glimmers, and I can see him having a say because he's only 5, has just 7 runs over the sticks, and saw a little money the last time he ran here a few weeks ago..

Each way and good luck

Be nice to catch a winner, and a placer or two here to get the day off to a good start.

3.15 Taunton Mr Magill 14/1 e/w

3rd chase start, goes well at the course, and acts on heavy. A 'value' selection methinks, with 4 places a fifth available in places.

I had a bit more written out, but lost the text switching between tabs, and accidentally 'x-ing' out

Getting tired I reckon :pac:

I feel today could be a good day for us and the thread, as I think there is a good mix of quality and quantity selections.

2 at Market Rasen, and that'll do for now

2.50 Glengar 9/1 e/w

3.25 Dorking Lad 7/2 e/w

Newcastle

4.50 Kroy 9/1 win

5.20 Jungle Rock 16/1 e/w, Roaring Rory 11/1 e/w

4.20 Newcastle Deb's Delight 4/1 win

30/12

Running P & L -62.7pts

Invested 52pts. Zarina Grande NR at 2pts. 50pts in play.

Returns:

2.25 El Hombre places at 8/1 at a fifth returning 2.6pts
4.05 Trepidation (done e/w at 12/1) places at a quarter the odds with a 30p rule 4 returning 3pts
5.10 Plumette wins at 11/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 15.2pts
6.10 Apex King (done e/w at 20s) places at a fifth the odds with a 5p rule 4 returning 4.8pts
12.35 Tactical Manoeuvre places at 18/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.6pts
3.25 Dorking Lad (done e/w at 7/2) places at a fifth the odds with a 35p rule 4 returning 1.2pts

Total in play 50pts - returns 31.4pts

Loss for the day 18.6pts

Running invested total - 956pts

Total P & L -81.3pts

5.50 Jazzy Socks 4/1 win

New Year's day 01/01/2021

12.05 Southwell Tukhoom 14/1 win

31/12

Running P & L -81.3pts

Invested 7pts

Returns: none

Total in play 7pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 7pts

Running invested total - 963pts

Total P & L -88.3pts

12.52 Tramore Colonel Lesley 11/2 win , Nameloc 18/1 e/w

2.02 Tramore Added Bonus 8/1 e/w

2.37 Tramore Djingle 33/1 e/w

3.40 Tramore Cadawill 7/1 win

01/01/2021

Running P & L -88.3pts

Invested 9pts

Returns - none

Total in play 9pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 9pts

Running invested total - 972pts

Total P & L -97.3pts

Saturday
02/01/2021

Run been pretty poor lately. Haven't been able to find too many to fire for today, so I've gone for 2 in a poor race at Wolves; which is a sprint, where anything can happen.

Both are big prices, and the shortest of the two I believe is the value one. The other one I feel can possibly oblige for a place (could win too )
due to the way the race will likely pan out.

4.40 WOLVES. A 5f sprint this, and a lot of horses who like to race to the fore. Not that unusual really in a sprint, but with the bend, and also taking into account the "cutting each others' throats" factor by going off too fast I think one who might be considered well-handicapped (hopefully after the fact anyway :pac:) is OH SO NICE 20/1 e/w ridden for the first time by Mollie Phillips who crucially, for selection reasons claims 7. This 5yr old has had 7 runs (3 of those over C & D) , and of those 3 has not been beaten far distance wise. Came last of 10 in August, but I would draw a line through that, as it was over 6fs, and after an absence. In her 3 course and distance runs she has tried to both make all, and attempt to come from off the pace; so it appears she is tactically versatile. The trainer A Carroll has had a few winners recently, with one of those being ridden by the young apprentice just last tuesday.

Outside of the favourite Passional, who's a mere 6/5, I think this is anyone's race. Wouldn't be surprised if she won, but wouldn't interest me at double her current price, as last time at the course she found trouble over today's trip coming 2nd. She was drawn 7 that day, and has a better draw in 2 in this race. Due to her low draw, I can see her racing prominently, and to be there to be nabbed late on; along with a lot of those who race forward. Marco Ghiani on top, and being a lto winner (6 runner affair over the minimum at Southwell, where it appears she wasn't inconvenienced - different kettle today altogether) might mean that this one could see some support; but not from me.

On to the next pick, and it's definitely in the punt category, and that's DIAMONDS DREAM 50/1 e/w. Trained, and also seems to be owned as well by K Bishop; this 4yr old filly has had just the five runs to date. Her third run in a Handicap, the most recent of which was her one and only run at Wolverhampton. She was slow to get going that day, and the jockey made sure to keep her held up. She was staying on past beaten horses at the end into a respectable enough 7th - beaten just over 6 lengths. My theory here is that she should be improving, and may get into a good rhythm, mainly because the rest will be gone like the clappers up ahead . As long as the jock doesn't have to pull the head off her, she may well go close. If she's gotten her act together I expect her to potentially make a bold bid.. As mentioned, she's only had the five runs.

Might even go reverse forecast on the two while I'm at it

Again, the two e/w picks 4.40 Wolves are Oh So Nice, and Diamonds Dream.

Gluck all

03/01 Plumpton 2.25 Sussex National

Special Acceptance 7/1 e/w

A young enough chaser, although he's eight. A lot of older horses in a race like this. The selection has had only 3 chase runs. He definitely appears a progressive type does Paul Webber's gelding. Won a Class 4 here just under a month ago... That was over about 2 1/2 fs shorter. It was on soft ground, and it appears the going is more towards the heavy side tomorrow. He won that Decmber 7th race in a fast time. I see no reason why he can't go well tomorrow. A lot of these in this race are standing dishes at this sort of trip and level, but I feel Paul Webber's candidate has more to offer.

The top 3 in the betting - all round the 7/2 bracket have good enough chances. Bermeo at 14s is a decent price, and has come 2nd here before over course and distance about two years ago; but that was in a hurdles' race on good ground. He hasn't done much over this exact trip though, but he's fairly consistent at around 3m - 3m 2fs... Kevin Brogan takes off 7, so I couldn't rule him out.

The selection will do for me here..

Gluck:)