Racing Uncertainties

6.00 Southwell Calculus 33/1 e/w

Looks like the well backed 7/4 favourite Bay Of Naples is the likely winner in this. He won decisively over C & D two runs back in a fast time. Was well backed that day, and up 6lbs since then. Regardless, there is no guarantee he will replicate that run, plus there are three places to play for. The reason I like CALCULUS is the trainer has ran him twice at the course recently (at 8 & 7 furlongs), and now he's stepping up to a mile and a half, as well as the first time blinkers, plus the fact that he's still a colt; but mainly because of the price. He's definitely a punt, as he has ran twice at distances of 10 furlongs, when with his previous trainer (just ran once for Kevin Ryan) , and 11 furlongs at Kempton, but ran badly in both. He did try and make all on both those occasions, so I'm thinking his current trainer and owner Lucinda Egerton has ran him over shorter at the course here to get him to settle. Still; no guarantee he'll stay the trip, but he appeals as a bet all the same.

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20/01

Newbury 1.25 Le Ligerien 14/1 e/w
Likes soft ground, and the course. Won here this time last year in a hurdles race. Will hope Philip Hobbs' charge takes to the larger obstacles on his first go; as I feel he may be well in on the ratings this son of Turgeon - on this occasion, and fill one of the two places, and with a good round of jumping - perhaps win. Does seem to be the stable 2nd string (Hobbs has another in this - ridded by Johnson for JP) , but the price is good, and a fluent round should see the selection go very close.

Newbury 2.30 Pencreek 14/1 e/w , Zamani 14/1 e/w , Drewmain Legend 16/1 e/w
5 places on offer here, and cases can be made for all three of these.

Good luck

Quite a few NRs in this 2.30 now, including one of the selections Drewmain Legend. One of those was the 7/2 fav Heart of a Lion, so looking at a 20p rule four to any returns; plus now there are only 4 places a fifth to play for. Say la vee

1.15 Newcastle Romeo Brown 22/1 e/w

He runs today at Newcastle in one of those Mickey Mouse "Jumper's Bumpers" . Reason I'm backing him today is that he ran well in one of these last frontend here at Newcastle, when finishing 2nd. That, along with the massive looking price, is plenty enough reason to have an interest today.

Deleted User

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20/01

Newbury 1.25 Le Ligerien 14/1 e/w
Likes soft ground, and the course. Won here this time last year in a hurdles race. Will hope Philip Hobbs' charge takes to the larger obstacles on his first go; as I feel he may be well in on the ratings this son of Turgeon - on this occasion, and fill one of the two places, and with a good round of jumping - perhaps win. Does seem to be the stable 2nd string (Hobbs has another in this - ridded by Johnson for JP) , but the price is good, and a fluent round should see the selection go very close.

Newbury 2.30 Pencreek 14/1 e/w , Zamani 14/1 e/w , Drewmain Legend 16/1 e/w
5 places on offer here, and cases can be made for all three of these.

Good luck

No joy with any of these

20/01

Running P & L -13.2pts

Invested 14pts. Drewmain Legend 2.30 NR @ 2pts. 12pts at stake.

Returns:

1.15 Romeo Brown (done e/w @ 22/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 5.4pts
6.00 Calculus (done e/w) places at 50/1 at a fifth the odds returning 11pts

Total in play 12pts - returns 16.4pts

Profit for the day 4.4pts

Running invested total - 1,253 pts

Total P & L -8.8pts

21/01

IFFFFFFFFF it passes inspection :pac:

3.10 Ludlow El Scorpio 11/1 e/w

5 plcs on offer here. This one is yet another I've put up before, and 1 of 4 (at least I hope he finishes in front of his other 3 :P) that trainer Jeremy Groucott has in this race; which is as many as he's had out in total - prior to tomorrow - in the last three weeks (don't know what to make of that, and amn't trying to either).

Anyhoo, he's not one to have a lot of faith in, but the five places tempted me here. The 3 miles (very close to - maybe 50 yards shy) might stretch him a bit, and if the course goes heavy (like the hurdles track is currently) this should also temper enthusiasm.

It's a poor race though, and the jolly Twojayslad (5/2 gen and lto winner) is 12yrs old, and, would appear to me at least to prefer the going to be closer to good to soft than the likely soft to heavy (in fact I can even see him being pulled, so perhaps I should have hung fire, as that would be a sickener of a rule 4 if he's withdrawn).

The main reason; apart from the poor quality of the participants, for me picking this one is his run two runs back. That run was at Uttoxeter over 1/2 mile shorter, and he was staying on (well, he was still going anyway :pac:) at the end - beaten only about 5 lengths in a good time.

He's yet to win, but is very lightly raced for a 9yr old, and is usually well supported. I'm thinking they expect him to come good some of these days, and I hope it's tomorrow.

Gluck

21/01

Running P & L -8.8pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Total in play 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 1,255 pts

Total P & L -10.8pts

22/01

4.45 Chelmsford Ammayya 10/1
Came 2nd over C & D 2 runs back. Only had 4 runs, and seems to travel okay in her races, which is what is needed in these "hands and heels" apprentice races.

6.45 Casina di Notte 8/1
Has only had a couple of wins, and neither of those at the course. Does tend to travel well on this surface; however has a tendency to break slow, so that won't help. A 7lb claiming jockey who I've never heard of on top (Ellie Norris) might get her first win here. I'm thinking this because the selection's trainer got Christian Howarth (who rides Ammayya on the selection in the 4.45) his first winner on Monday at Wolves, when coming home in front on the well backed Arabic Welcome.

6.45 Weloof 6/1
Is having his second spell with his current trainer John Butler. Is a C & D winner.

6.45 Channel Packet 5/1
A third selection here. Has a good draw, and can win under 7lbs claiming jockey Erika Parkinson, provided he avoids the trouble in running he often finds. The reason I've gone for three here is that I think that the 5/2 fav Win Win power is opposable, and I hope one of the three selections can win this.

1.55 Musselburgh Petite Ganache 10/1
Another jumps meeting subject to an inspection. This 9yr old has only had 4 chase starts, and is yet to win over them obstacles. He has won in January in 2019 and 2020. Those were in hurdles races over a similar enough trip to what he faces tomorrow. Those were on better ground in good to soft, but I think proper soft ground will be okay as he came third in a 3 mile hurdles race in August at Perth where the going was soft. I can see him going okay tomorrow under the champ Brian Hughes.

All these EW

Gluck

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

22/01

1.55 Musselburgh Petite Ganache 10/1
Another jumps meeting subject to an inspection. This 9yr old has only had 4 chase starts, and is yet to win over them obstacles. He has won in January in 2019 and 2020. Those were in hurdles races over a similar enough trip to what he faces tomorrow. Those were on better ground in good to soft, but I think proper soft ground will be okay as he came third in a 3 mile hurdles race in August at Perth where the going was soft. I can see him going okay tomorrow under the champ Brian Hughes.

All these EW

Gluck

Still/currently 11/1 Gen, but with 2 NRs at around the 4/1 mark (looking at a substantial rule 4 ), the selection here might be counted as a drifter... I still think he's got a good chance myself, as I'm not too enthused about the topweight and general 9/4 fav Chanting Hill (won a chase alright over the same trip as today's, but that was on good ground... Hadn't done much prior to that win in three hurdles races on soft and heavy going).

The next three in the betting are much of a muchness too.

Not a lot of evidence to say the selection is any better, but I think he has more potential than the rest, and a facile victory wouldn't be a surprise..

1.20 Musselburgh Esme Shelby 11/1 e/w
Has drifted out to a good price, and has a chance of getting involved here over 2 1/2 miles on soft; on her third hurdles start, going on her PtoP form.

^^

Esme not good enough. A bit of argy bargy in a fast run race, but she never really travelled well anyway, and finished only 5th or 6th.

2.35 Ling Aberama Gold 5/2 win
Short enough for the thread, but there should be some pace on, and he can be the fastest from A to B in this 6f Class 2 event.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

22/01

4.45 Chelmsford Ammayya 10/1
Came 2nd over C & D 2 runs back. Only had 4 runs, and seems to travel okay in her races, which is what is needed in these "hands and heels" apprentice races.

6.45 Casina di Notte 8/1
Has only had a couple of wins, and neither of those at the course. Does tend to travel well on this surface; however has a tendency to break slow, so that won't help. A 7lb claiming jockey who I've never heard of on top (Ellie Norris) might get her first win here. I'm thinking this because the selection's trainer got Christian Howarth (who rides Ammayya on the selection in the 4.45) his first winner on Monday at Wolves, when coming home in front on the well backed Arabic Welcome.

6.45 Weloof 6/1
Is having his second spell with his current trainer John Butler. Is a C & D winner.

6.45 Channel Packet 5/1
A third selection here. Has a good draw, and can win under 7lbs claiming jockey Erika Parkinson, provided he avoids the trouble in running he often finds. The reason I've gone for three here is that I think that the 5/2 fav Win Win power is opposable, and I hope one of the three selections can win this.

1.55 Musselburgh Petite Ganache 10/1
Another jumps meeting subject to an inspection. This 9yr old has only had 4 chase starts, and is yet to win over them obstacles. He has won in January in 2019 and 2020. Those were in hurdles races over a similar enough trip to what he faces tomorrow. Those were on better ground in good to soft, but I think proper soft ground will be okay as he came third in a 3 mile hurdles race in August at Perth where the going was soft. I can see him going okay tomorrow under the champ Brian Hughes.

All these EW

Gluck

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

HUGHESIE HUGHESIE HUGHESIE!!!!!!!!!!

Great ride - the loose horse Cudgel, and was off the bridle for most of the last 6 furlongs..... But stayed on like a goodun....

GWAN HUGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHSSSSSSSSSSSIIIIIIIIIIIIEEEE

^^^

Fair play to the pundits :P :rolleyes:

Done a sterling job of trying to put anyone and everyone off backing the selection before the off with their "fair and balanced punditry" :pac:

"Might do better in a couple of runs on better ground in the Spring" :mad:

Chunts, as another knowledgeable poster 'Moron' would say... Fq em :mad:

Oh - GWAAAANNNNNNN HUGHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSIIEEEE !!!!!!

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2.35 Ling Aberama Gold 5/2 win
Short enough for the thread, but there should be some pace on, and he can be the fastest from A to B in this 6f Class 2 event.

Got that one wrong Well beat

5.00 Fundalk Merchant Of Venice 13/2 e/w

Saw this one on another thread, so had a luke, and I think he has a very good chance here. Having his 4th run since coming from Fanshawe's, and a replication of the first two of those should have him bang there. Can draw a line through his last race, as that was over 7, when he tried to make all in a better race. I think a mile will suit, and Cian McRedmond takes off 7. Jockey has ridded 10+ winners, so am confident enough on that score. I also think the 15/8-2/1 fav Settle For Bay is opposable this evening - looks a bit short to me at least relevant to his chances here.

Gluck all

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

22/01

4.45 Chelmsford Ammayya 10/1
Came 2nd over C & D 2 runs back. Only had 4 runs, and seems to travel okay in her races, which is what is needed in these "hands and heels" apprentice races.

Gluck

4th Was well backed too - 11/2 from 14s on the show

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

5.00 Fundalk Merchant Of Venice 13/2 e/w

Saw this one on another thread, so had a luke, and I think he has a very good chance here. Having his 4th run since coming from Fanshawe's, and a replication of the first two of those should have him bang there. Can draw a line through his last race, as that was over 7, when he tried to make all in a better race. I think a mile will suit, and Cian McRedmond takes off 7. Jockey has ridded 10+ winners, so am confident enough on that score. I also think the 15/8-2/1 fav Settle For Bay is opposable this evening - looks a bit short to me at least relevant to his chances here.

Gluck all

4th - money back with the 4 places a fifth, plus a small profit...
*Pretty sure he got that spot crossing the line - although Jerry had something else in that position

*Wasn't too sure at all - even after rewinding.. Hannon should get the boot :pac:

Hannon's at it again - he called the winner (I think he did anyway) in a ruddy headbobber crossing the line at Dundalk in the 6.30 :pac: Couldn't have been more than the shortest of shortheads betwixt the Joey O'Brien pair Lads on course couldn't tell who won looking at the freezeframe (it was blurred, but even so). He knew! :pac: - Some man Jerry Hannon

22/01

Running P & L -10.8pts

Invested 15pts

Returns:

*1.55 Petite Ganache (done e/w @ 10s) wins at 10/1 with a fifth the odds a place returning 14pts
5.00 Merchant Of Venice (done e/w) places at 9/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.8pts
6.45 Casina di Notte (done e/w at 8/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.6pts

*Was expecting a possible deduction for a Rule 4 in this, but there wasn't one.

Total in play 15pts - returns 19.4pts

Profit for the day 4.4pts

Running invested total - 1,270 pts

Total P & L -6.4pts

Think Starczewski will win 7.45, but just a watching brief here - checked prices last night and was only about 13/8-7/4... Was hoping for 7/2, or bigger.. 15/8 now

He ran a poor race finishing third.... Never really got going did Starczewski...

23/01

Saturday hit and hopes - had a glance at tomorrow's cards, and these'll do at decent prices. Won't be 'weighing in' on any of them anyway All EW.

Ascot
12.40 Casa Loupi 10/1
1.50 Botox Has 20/1
2.25 Townshend 16/1
3.00 Espoir De Guye 6/1 , Acting Lass 16/1, Domaine De L'isle 11/1
3.35 First Flow 18/1 . Will give this progressive chaser a decent chance of upsetting a few applecarts here . PS hope Waiting Patiently and Hughesie go well too.

Haydock - A Precautionary inspection 8am
2.05 Milvale 8/1
3.50 Protek Des Flos 13/2

Newcastle
4.05 Madeeh 8/1
4.40 Furniture Factors 33/1
5.10 Sharrabang 5/1
5.40 Kapono 7/1
6.40 Rockley Point 7/2 , Billy Dylan 14/1

101 Combi dbls if anyone's interested in that angle.

Gluck to Saturday punters - I hope some of these can at least make what looks like a winning shape come the business end

Almost at the off for the first pick, and the prices have mainly remained steady . A few have shortened a bit - Only real 'drifter' is the selection in the 4.40 Newcastle, which is a tricky race where I thought one at a big price might go well.. Wanted to make a case for Ghostly in that, but couldn't really...

Casa Loupi up now, and he's one of the few who've shortened

Almost got it there :pac: I think the commentator backed Johnson - he was bigging him up as a danger to my selection about 2 out, when the one in front was looking likely to win at that stage

pottokblue

Good luck Leffesem with your Saturday bets. Over three weeks now that I've been doing fantasy pots/scoops and I'm still missing the laddy/paddy/boyle shop visits!

Thanks Pottokblue.. I can't blame ya - it's a flippin sickener the shops are still closed alright... I think they're trying to test the populace, and see how much they're willing to take Won't be long now til we're all getting microchipped :mad: I won't be in the queue for that jab; that's for damn sho

1.50 race was too hot for Botox Has - was out the back for most of it, and never got involved at all. Not even a 'run for our money' there - Early days yet though, and 1 place from two is an acceptable average; if it stays that way :P

And a third for Milvale in the 2.05. Was never far off the pace - got closer about 6/7 fs out, and looked like the possible winner 2 out. Got ran out of it in the last 2fs or so, but held on for third.. So that's ok.

And Townshend up next 2.25 Ascot... An interesting one for sure. Is owned and ridden by Jamie Neild (or perhaps his dad owns him). Anyway, he's a C & D winner from last year at around this time on the same going, with the same 7lbs claiming jockey on top. Is one of the outsiders, and drifting a bit so can only be hopeful with this mildly speculative selection...