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Racing Uncertainties
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Deleted User wrote: »4.05 Southwell Cable Guy 15/2 win
Looks a Mickey Mouse race this (nowt Mickey Mouse about a 15/2 winner if our luck's in tho ) ; with the exception of the Fahey odds on jolly, the other 4 don't look up to much here. Ali Stronge's Acquisitor perhaps has the second best piece of form on show here from his second last run, when staying on at the business end over the minimum at the course. He's had 8 goes though without winning, so I think the race is between Double Dealing and the selection Cable Guy, who's the only one in this 6 runner field having its first race..
He's also the sole runner at the track for both jockey and trainer Stevie Donohoe and Charlie Fellowes, so he must have a chance based on that alone. His sire Cable Bay had a winner last weekend, and that one was Big Narstie at Lingfield on his debut. I may elect to have a win w/o fav when that market opens up; if his current price holds up, but it's a win bet here for thread purposes. If he's as good as I hope he possibly might be, then the only danger is the fav, so unless 2-place betting is within a half point or so of win w/o fav price, then the without market is favoured as a saver. No point in each way I think, because it's either nowhere on his first run, or win/go very close to the favourite.
Gluck all
A goodish day on the box for sportsfans with the final rounds of the snooker shootout on Eurosport, the Luge World Cup, Ski Jumping World cup, and Cross-Country Skiing also, which are on Eurosports 1 and 2. For those who like golf the last rounds of the European and PGA tours are also on today on the golf channel , and soccerball fans are well catered to with three live matches on; the pick of which would be Liverpool v City.
Am also looking forward; if am awake :P to the yankee showpiece the NFL Super Bowl LV (reminds me of that classic 90s tune Gangsta's Paradise by Coolio, which featured a great turn by L.V. - might could be part of the half-time entertainment
Wonder what the odds on that are, although it's probably been preselected well in advance ). Was checking out da odds between The Chiefs and The Buccaneers, and the one that stood out (for daftness, and not value reasons ) was the last play being 'Taking The Knee' (FFS) at 1/2 iirc 
.
Coolio was about 90% right imo.. Lyric shudda went been spendin' all our lives living in the gangsta's paradise .. Still, he musta known a thing or two - he half predicted a 'Black President' ; well he referenced it anyway, so that counts as a favourable mention regards Nostradamus type sheet :pac:
What's da World coming to with dat sorta nonsensical absurdity. I can see Mahomes 'taking the knee , and no doubt multiple MVP and Super Bowl winner Tom Bradyyy will also fall victim to this dumb fad, if 'The Buccs' are last to get a down..
Can't wait for the bookies to open, if only so I can scream at the telly (whether I have a bet or not :pac:) because the lunacy and cabin fever with this lockdown is getting to me
Enjoy whatever yis decide to view today on t'box, cos there's fuq all else ta do
11/4 w/o v 7/4 2 places... Took the 11/4 natch :P Is drifting a bit tho'.... 8/1 now, so don't know what to make of that.. Such is the poor nature/makeup (apart from fav, as mentioned) of the race, I am happy to take a small chance (far from a forlorn hope though the selection, all things considered) on the selection, which could well go as low as 7/2 - if the vibes are good and whatnot etc.. etc..
Just a btw, that bet w/o is just an ancillary recommendation, and win or lose won't be going in the P & L update...
Besta luck.... Am reasonably confident we'll at least get a 'run for our money' with 1 or more of the picks - whether we've any joy or not remains to be seen.. The nature of my picks, and their prices, I feel if I can find a dozen+ or so a day with similar looking chances to today's picks, then I'm more confident of a profitable return... Throw enough darts and all that jazz..
With the dearth of racing recently, plus inspections (usual or precautionary) and ruddy jumpers flamin' bumpers, tis very hard to find more than 3 or 4 picks on any given day in these strange times...
Can only hope things pick up all around - both in the quality, and (esp) quantity of race meets, but especially with life (because life as we know it is pretty effin sh1tty this last 11 months) in general... "Mustn't grumble eh lads" sayeth the Pommies... I'm Irish, and 'grumbling' is in me DnA, so it is.. :pac:0 -
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2.40 Leopardstown Pure Genius 9/2 win
Upon consideration, i've changed my mind about the McManus horse, and will make him the 2nd selection here.. He's the only one of the principals that could possibly show more than what he's already shown (whatever that means) imo... :pac: Will go with "is capable of further improvement"
Am wrekd here, so I don't know if Ruby didn't give him a mention when himself and Donn were previewing the card :pac:
Think that's about it, unless I find one for the Gold Cup..
Be lucky folks0 -
Deleted User wrote: »1.10 Leopardstown Heaven Help Us 22/1 e/w
With 5 places on offer, this Paul Hennessy mare has a very good chance here on her best hurdles' form. Been running over the larger obstacles exclusively for the last 5 months or so, with her last run over the sticks in the Supreme last March, when finishing about 30 lengths behind Shishkin. No shame in that, as the ground was close to heavy, and she didn't have the smoothest of passages..
First time cheekpieces, plus an apprentice who takes 7lbs off on board - it will be the first time since her bumper days that she's had a weight alleviation from the pilot, and she looks fairly handicapped to boot.. Has a second placing at the course behind the talent Abacadabras at the end of 2019 over 2 furlongs shorter on soft to heavy ground; so there's a lot to like.
Was inspired to have a look at this one, when a mod put her up on the main horsey forum, but that's okay, as I've mentioned before There's a few of us on this site expecting a bold showing :pac::D:D
GWAN YA DANCER!!!!!!!!!!
And a big thank you goes out to The Mig I wouldn't be here if it wasn't for his guidance, patience, and understanding..... that we just loves us getting a WINNNNNNEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!! 0 -
Deleted User wrote: »1.55 Musselburgh Feldspar 25/1 e/w
Just seems way overpriced to me, on the back of a decent third first time out over hurdles at C & D. The 2nd and third favourites have never jumped an obstacle in public, having had changes of stables, and with about 7/8 runs apiece on the flat....
We gots us a juicy third spot there... Favourite was WAAAAY too good, and jockey nearly unshipped on selection at last, so well happy so far:) 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »2.40 Leopardstown Articulum 25/1 e/w
Going to take a 'punt' on this 11yr old here. Too many with chances around the 6/1 - 12/1 mark to pick a viable winning selection. Maybe the favourite Pure Genius to get another for JP and Simon Torrens, at around 9/2, but a bit too short in a race like this. Only 6 hurdles runs, and carries a low weight of 10-1, minus the jockey's 5lb claim. Could well be a T M Walsh/McManus plot job.Deleted User wrote: »^^^^
2.40 Leopardstown Pure Genius 9/2 win
Upon consideration, i've changed my mind about the McManus horse, and will make him the 2nd selection here.. He's the only one of the principals that could possibly show more than what he's already shown (whatever that means) imo... :pac: Will go with "is capable of further improvement"
Am wrekd here, so I don't know if Ruby didn't give him a mention when himself and Donn were previewing the card :pac:
Think that's about it, unless I find one for the Gold Cup..
Be lucky folks
Neither of these any good sadly... 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »4.05 Southwell Cable Guy 15/2 win
Looks a Mickey Mouse race this (nowt Mickey Mouse about a 15/2 winner if our luck's in tho :pac:) ; with the exception of the Fahey odds on jolly, the other 4 don't look up to much here. Ali Stronge's Acquisitor perhaps has the second best piece of form on show here from his second last run, when staying on at the business end over the minimum at the course. He's had 8 goes though without winning, so I think the race is between Double Dealing and the selection Cable Guy, who's the only one in this 6 runner field having its first race..
He's also the sole runner at the track for both jockey and trainer Stevie Donohoe and Charlie Fellowes, so he must have a chance based on that alone. His sire Cable Bay had a winner last weekend, and that one was Big Narstie at Lingfield on his debut. I may elect to have a win w/o fav when that market opens up; if his current price holds up, but it's a win bet here for thread purposes. If he's as good as I hope he possibly might be, then the only danger is the fav, so unless 2-place betting is within a half point or so of win w/o fav price, then the without market is favoured as a saver. No point in each way I think, because it's either nowhere on his first run, or win/go very close to the favourite.
Gluck all A goodish day on the box for sportsfans with the final rounds of the snooker shootout on Eurosport, the Luge World Cup, Ski Jumping World cup, and Cross-Country Skiing also, which are on Eurosports 1 and 2. For those who like golf the last rounds of the European and PGA tours are also on today on the golf channel , and soccerball fans are well catered to with three live matches on; the pick of which would be Liverpool v City.
Am also looking forward; if am awake :P to the yankee showpiece the NFL Super Bowl LV (reminds me of that classic 90s tune Gangsta's Paradise by Coolio, which featured a great turn by L.V. - might could be part of the half-time entertainment Wonder what the odds on that are, although it's probably been preselected well in advance ). Was checking out da odds between The Chiefs and The Buccaneers, and the one that stood out (for daftness, and not value reasons ) was the last play being 'Taking The Knee' (FFS) at 1/2 iirc :eek: .
Coolio was about 90% right imo.. Lyric shudda went been spendin' all our lives living in the gangsta's paradise .. Still, he musta known a thing or two - he half predicted a 'Black President' ; well he referenced it anyway, so that counts as a favourable mention regards Nostradamus type sheet :pac:
What's da World coming to with dat sorta nonsensical absurdity. I can see Mahomes 'taking the knee , and no doubt multiple MVP and Super Bowl winner Tom Bradyyy will also fall victim to this dumb fad, if 'The Buccs' are last to get a down..
Can't wait for the bookies to open, if only so I can scream at the telly (whether I have a bet or not :pac:) because the lunacy and cabin fever with this lockdown is getting to me
Enjoy whatever yis decide to view today on t'box, cos there's fuq all else ta do
Rubbish.. drifts all the way out to 20/1.. How do they know the horse won't go a yard? Not just maidens,,, Happens in all sorts of races - horsies drifting out to 50% or more above what they should be..0 -
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07/02
Another AP selection, and another 'punt' for the festival:
National Hunt Chase Cheltenham Acey Milan 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3)
He's only entered in one race as far as I can see. Was well regarded a few years back, and went off favourite for the Champion Bumper in 2018. Wasn't beaten far, but his ensuing hurdles career was poor. This 7yr old has since began chasing, and has had four runs over the larger obstacles since October. He started off with a rating of 131 (bear with me - I think I'm making sense here) , and having won his first race over fences got raised to 137.
Pretty muddling the form in his last three outings since the maiden chase win. Hard to know what to make of it. Since that win he's finished 5th of 5, 2nd of three, and fell lto. His rating before his last race was 135, so perhaps he's dropped a couple of lbs since then.
About all i do know about this race is; that regardless who wins it, one or more of the pundits will be really pleased for the jockey/trainer/connections... the usual spiel. Being as it's the last race of day, it wouldn't normally be televised on terrestrial TV. But this year, perhaps ITV will be showing all the races to the masses almost gratis (almost, cos they still gotta pay that TV license) and the pundits on there would tend towards effusiveness moreso than the Racing TV massive..
Most likely at least 4 places will be available on the day, but I'm happy enough to take my chances in advance, in the hope of gaining a far bigger price - that's the theory anyway - than what might be available come the day. Plus; it will be a nice boost to the thread also if selection/s prevail, and with very little racing on this weather; looking at the C'ham Antepost lists is something to do.
There's also the added bonus of being able to bs to whomever about future investments / portfolios etc.... "So, are ya into stocks and shares?" ... "No.... I backed a few horses for Cheltenham." What larks sez I
The reason I mention ratings is the ceiling for this race is confined to horses rated 140, so I'm taking the view that this race has been the plan, and that he's been campaigned/ridden (in all his last 7 outings including 3 hurdles' races Rex Dingle has been on board) in a manner which would see him not exceed that 140lbs ceiling.
Now I'm even more confused, as the above is an amateur jockeys' race.... Pretty sure that Rex used to be an amateur jockey, but I aint so sure nowadays - pretty sure he's a professional. That said, by my thinking Rex has done his job (apart from falling lto.. doubt that was part of the plan :pac:) in schooling the horse over the bigger obstacles / maintaining a lowish rating, and so on.
As to whether he'll even turn up for the closing race on day one, or if he'll even be good or talented enough to go well over the gruelling 3m 5f stamina test does definitely remain to be seen.
I did say he was a 'punt' . I also wouldn't be surprised if I'm talkin through me hole about that ratings/ceilings/bands craic, as the majority of any AP bets I ever do are usually in top graded races where there's no upper limit on a horse's mark. He'll do me at the prices, and let the chips fall where they may. I looked at a few of the ponies towards the top of the betting in this event, and a lot of them have 2 or more potential targets for the festival.... Unlike the pick above, which has just the one...0 -
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6.30 Dundalk Eacharn 18/1 e/w , Amazing One 7/1 e/w
The 1st of the 2 above has won an apprentice handicap before. Today's pilot is Amy Jo Hayes; who has yet to ride a winner, and so claims 7lbs; which I presume is the max claim allowed in these apprentice races. She has had two spins on Andy Slattery's gelding already (the selection's last two runs). The first she didn't fare so well in when she held Eacharn up at the rear of mid-div. Lto she had the pick up at the front over C & D; most likely contesting a lead, where the horse was given a keen hold and still managed to finish a decent 7th under the circumstances - beaten just over 3 lengths. I think if today is the day the jockey should know how to get the most out of this 7yr old.
In his 3 wins to date (2 over C & D, and 1 over 6fs here also) he chased the leaders in all of them. In a race like this there should be plenty of pace on. Drawn in box 7 beside the deserving, but well underpriced (6/4 gen - 7/4 best price ) favourite Masalai - who has the 8 box - , who is also one which likes to frontrun, I am hoping Eacharn gets a lead here, and is ridden to the fore.
One that could pick up the pieces, and at a reasonable price is Amazing One ridden by Mikey Sheehy. Also a 7yr old, he is pretty much guaranteed to be held up, and being drawn 10 of 14 should help. He has two wins only - both over 7, with one on turf, and the other over C & D - , and he was staying on at the end of his last two runs, which were over 6 at the course.
Worryingly, for collecting (hopefully ) purposes; the joint 2nd/3rd favourite is Indiana Grey, who is around 4/1. I don't even see a jockey booked for her yet, so hard to know what to make of that at all at all. Maybe wait 'til after 9 in the AM when we should know more ( (or perhaps not - can't make head nor tail of that reserve system, or what time they're supposed to be scratched (if at all ) ). The majority of the layers have that yoke priced up, and I aint waitin' indefinitely for her to be pulled, so can only hope Patrick Martin's filly drifts.. might well be a forlorn hope that; but if she does line up I can't see her winning here today.. Can only hope she's at a bigger price than currently, or at least not shorter..
Both the picks are well handicapped on their best form, and I would not be surprised to see one of them prevail, or to each be in the places - maybe even 1 and 2
Good luck0 -
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Cheers pottokblue.. Happy new year to you too
You're keeping up them placepot selections... Fair play..... Very hard to make a profit with them, and the calibre of racing and going changes etc..
Hope your luck changes, and may the bookies and every other shop that's closed open up soon including pubs/restaurants... If they ain't open soon it could be never :eek:
Seen a few Chelty races priced up for 2022 (a few of the big races) on Oddschecker a few days ago when I looked - first two were for next year, but the other 5/6 races were eg Stayers' Hurdle 2022 - March 2037
Anyway the thread's in profit, but very hard to find any selections.. Might even watch the rugby today :pac: Allez Les Bleus!0 -
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Put up 06/01Deleted User wrote: »Time for a few AP bets
Grand National Burrows Saint 18/1 e/w (1/5 1-5)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Santini 10/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
2000 Guineas Battleground 8/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
Derby High Definition 6/1 e/w (1/5 1-3)
The two flat races are in May and June, so I would say by then things should be okay travel wise for the Irish contingent.
GN in April, so that looks good too.
If Santini turns up, he's definitely good enough to be involved in the Gold Cup. Too good imo to be going to a National; at least yet.
Put up 11/01Deleted User wrote: »Another one for the AP list
Waiting Patiently in the Ryanair Cheltenham. 12/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3)
10yrs old now is Ruth Jefferson's stable star. Never ran before at Cheltenham; never mind the festival. This horse is surely running out of time to get a Cheltenham festival win - has been in the betting for various races at the Prestbury Park venue this last few years without showing up.
Off for just over a year when finishing a good second in the King George at Kempton last month. Horse does carry a health warning for punting purposes, as could well go to Ascot, or Aintree (assuming racing goes ahead) for one of the big races at either of those meets, which flank the Cheltenham festival.
Horse is also entered in Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but I hope the Ryanair is the likely target. 12s is good enough for me, and am happy to take a chance he'll go for O'Leary's race..
Put up 15/01Deleted User wrote: »Reserve Tank 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3) Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham
Well, he has an entry, and was alright over the sticks a while back - hasn't ran in over a year though.. A big priced winner in this last year too,
Put up 06/02Deleted User wrote: »I think these are the sum total of my AP selections put up so far, that haven't bitten the dust yet.
Put them up on the 06, 11, and 15th Jan I think.
These on the 06/02:
Eurotiep 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3) Ballymore Cheltenham.
Saint Sam 10/1 e/w (1/4 1-2-3-4) Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Cheltenham.
Put up 07/02Deleted User wrote: »07/02
Another AP selection, and another 'punt' for the festival:
National Hunt Chase Cheltenham Acey Milan 50/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3)
He's only entered in one race as far as I can see. Was well regarded a few years back, and went off favourite for the Champion Bumper in 2018. Wasn't beaten far, but his ensuing hurdles career was poor. This 7yr old has since began chasing, and has had four runs over the larger obstacles since October. He started off with a rating of 131 (bear with me - I think I'm making sense here) , and having won his first race over fences got raised to 137.
Pretty muddling the form in his last three outings since the maiden chase win. Hard to know what to make of it. Since that win he's finished 5th of 5, 2nd of three, and fell lto. His rating before his last race was 135, so perhaps he's dropped a couple of lbs since then.
About all i do know about this race is; that regardless who wins it, one or more of the pundits will be really pleased for the jockey/trainer/connections... the usual spiel. Being as it's the last race of day, it wouldn't normally be televised on terrestrial TV. But this year, perhaps ITV will be showing all the races to the masses almost gratis (almost, cos they still gotta pay that TV license) and the pundits on there would tend towards effusiveness moreso than the Racing TV massive..
Most likely at least 4 places will be available on the day, but I'm happy enough to take my chances in advance, in the hope of gaining a far bigger price - that's the theory anyway - than what might be available come the day. Plus; it will be a nice boost to the thread also if selection/s prevail, and with very little racing on this weather; looking at the C'ham Antepost lists is something to do.
There's also the added bonus of being able to bs to whomever about future investments / portfolios etc.... "So, are ya into stocks and shares?" ... "No.... I backed a few horses for Cheltenham." What larks sez I
The reason I mention ratings is the ceiling for this race is confined to horses rated 140, so I'm taking the view that this race has been the plan, and that he's been campaigned/ridden (in all his last 7 outings including 3 hurdles' races Rex Dingle has been on board) in a manner which would see him not exceed that 140lbs ceiling.
Now I'm even more confused, as the above is an amateur jockeys' race.... Pretty sure that Rex used to be an amateur jockey, but I aint so sure nowadays - pretty sure he's a professional. That said, by my thinking Rex has done his job (apart from falling lto.. doubt that was part of the plan :pac:) in schooling the horse over the bigger obstacles / maintaining a lowish rating, and so on.
As to whether he'll even turn up for the closing race on day one, or if he'll even be good or talented enough to go well over the gruelling 3m 5f stamina test does definitely remain to be seen.
I did say he was a 'punt' . I also wouldn't be surprised if I'm talkin through me hole about that ratings/ceilings/bands craic, as the majority of any AP bets I ever do are usually in top graded races where there's no upper limit on a horse's mark. He'll do me at the prices, and let the chips fall where they may. I looked at a few of the ponies towards the top of the betting in this event, and a lot of them have 2 or more potential targets for the festival.... Unlike the pick above, which has just the one...
Think these are the rest of the AP picks... Putting them together every so often, so I'll not forget about them.
I think my Ryanair pick was scratched at latest entry(?) stage.. Will subtract on day, or close to...
14/02
I'll take a chance on a couple of others in the abovementioned race:
Fakir D'oudairies 10/1 e/w , Kalashnikov 25/1 e/w (1/5 1-2-3). NRNB on these.
Fakir has a couple of entries; with the other one being in the champion chase. I think if he goes to the festival that it'll be the Ryanair for him.
The other pick has just the sole festival entry; unlike quite a few above him in the betting. Latest run over a similar trip at the course in December was decent, when he finished 2nd to Mister Fisher - who also seems to just have an entry for this race next month, but Kalashnikov is a far better each way price/proposition.0 -
15/02
2.20 Warwick Jaisalmer 20/1 e/w , Wax And Wane 11/1 e/w , Guernesey 15/2 e/w
Two value picks here methinks, and the midpriced one is one I don't want to not back 'just in case' in a race where 5 plcs a fifth are on offer.
Jaisalmer is just too big to not back here for sure. Could easily be half his current price imo. He is a course and distance winner from just over a year ago on soft ground. In his career he has been running over trips from 2m up to 2m 5fs on all sorts of ground. Has won on soft and heavy going with three wins at distances of 2m or thereabouts twice, and 2m 2fs approx once. Has only had 3 runs since his win last January, and in all three he has either tried to make all, or has been in the lead in the latter part of his races, only to tire/fade at business end. All those runs were further than what he tackles today, and I think that he is well enough handicapped, and that his recent outings were moreso just to keep the 9yr old at a mark where he can be competitive.
Wax And Wane does not appear to be over-generously priced. A 6yr old who has only had 4 hurdles' outings; the last of which was in October gone after almost a year long absence. That was his first run in a handicap, and at almost 2 1/2m. He has, however; had two decent 2nds at the end of 2019 over this trip, has had first time wind surgery, and the tonguestrap is applied for the first time. That being said; as mentioned, the price doesn't appear overly generous, but it is still a 'decent' price, and I'd rather back this fella at close to 10s and see him lose than keep a "watching brief" for his next outing - as today is his second run after a healthy absence, and next time out will be his 2nd run after the aforementioned surgery (2nd run after a wind op is usually a good time to back them according to the 'experts') - , only to see him win and be annoyed at not having a bet.
Guernesey is the third selection here, and like the first pick I think he is very good value to go well in this. He's only had three goes so far over the sticks, and the most recent of those was in December when he came a respectable second to the very easy winner Friend Or Foe. That race was just shy of today's trip of two miles. I had a look to see if Guernesey's conqueror that day has had any outings since, and I was happy to see that Friend Or Foe came a very good second in his latest race, which was in a Grade 2 Handicap. On that basis I think Guernesey can be bang there with the evergreen Dickie Johnson on top for the second, and successive time.
Reasonably hopeful and confident of at least getting a return here; with the top two in the betting in Amarillo Sky (having to improve on his latest run to justify his price tag) , and Song Of The Hunter (who probably/possibly needs to make all, which won't be easy in a big field) both facing a tough enough task, and appearing to have the proverbial question marks against them.
Gluck
Whatever about Statuses yellow and orange and all that malarkey, it appears that at least 4 out of the 5 meets - on both sides of the pond - are going ahead today, so if it continues in that vein it will hopefully present more betting opportunities... It's the middle of Feb, so it would be nice for the frost/snow etc to abate, and the majority of all meetings onwards going ahead without any hassle.. That's from a weather POV, but with this sh1tshow of restrictions.. who knows? Alls I know is, is that there's fuq all else from an entertainment view to do nowadays but punt. Sad state of affairs
A more cynical person than me might think that sport is only allowed to go ahead to keep the ravaging masses at bay :pac: They also have the likes of 'Dancing on Ice' and 'First Dates' still going :mad: - presumably to keep the populous from going postal :rolleyes: Somehow I doubt Hughie camping it up is essential work , but I'm gonna hold fire on going on a rant about that elsewhere; given that it may have been recorded months ago.. Can barely leave the house but celebrities, and those appearing on "Reality TV" can.... \ Go figure
Best of luck.. Maybe a winner later will cheer me up 0 -
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Overall, am happy with today's picks. Anyone who wants to do perms/multis with the lot there are 23 doubles, 28 trebles, and 12 accas - I think - so times those by two, and for a few pennies maybe e/w combis will effectuate a € positive roi....
Will live in hope and confidence anyway:) 0 -
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