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Racing Uncertainties
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Deleted User wrote: »3.15 Lingfield Good Bye 15/2 , Bailarico 10/1
Will take a chance here, and go two against the field - win only. I don't think the top two in the betting are any great shakes, and at least the selections have some sort of form in these sorta races. That was the only race that limped off the page; as one that might give me a chance of finding a big priced winner - if one of them does win, it'll only be a 'reasonable' , and not a 'big' price... Good Bye is a C & D winner from last time out two weeks ago, and Bailarico came 4th in a higher grade version at today's distance a few days ago; so I'm hanging my hat on those pieces of form being good enough for the picks to at least be in the mix.. Might get to like this rubbish if they can land places 1 and 2 :P
Bit of carnage at the end there with a well backed one slipping, falling, and unshipping the jockey when coming with a wet sail to threaten for a place very late on.
However, we got a winner with Bailarico, who was backed just before the off from 8s to 13/2, I think.. The other one drifted and came nowhere.
Think Daryl Jacob is okay - it looked real bad though
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Deleted User wrote: »3.25 Warwick Molly Ollys Wishes 11/2 e/w , Sensulano 33/1 e/w
Just the two places on offer here, but I will take a chance on these two who are both C & D winners. I don't know much about the short priced French trained jolly Paul's Saga, so am happy to oppose her (yes, it's a her :pac: - tis a Mares' race after all) . I think that the bigger priced of the two is definitely overpriced, given her connections (Noel Williams wouldn't be one of Racing's high profile trainers)..
Good girl Molly
The other one nowhere alas0 -
Deleted User wrote: »4.25 Wolves Nellie French 7/2 e/w
A short enough price, but she found out how to win lto (over C & D) , and a replication of that should see her involved here. Any improvement and she may well win. Definitely a good price imo.. Just an observation; as am not liking the well-backed fav True Hero, but at 1.3 or thereabouts, it might prove fruitful to chance a 3 place lay on this one.. Am not on the exchanges, so won't be doing it myself... Don't know why she's a best-priced 11/8 outright favourite, having only 2 wins from 23 outings, and her lto win was at Southwell on Standard to Slow going. No, I aint seeing it at all...
Good girl Nellie
Called da fav wrong re getting placed - got 2nd.0 -
Deleted User wrote: »Pretty sure that that Mohareb above was the first one that caught the eye when I first glanced at the cards over the weekend; but I most likely didn't give him a second look at the time, as was more than likely expecting the Standard to Slow going (best I can make out the going at Wolverhampton is Standard this eve - hope it stays that way... ) . Also had a look at Thurles, but not much of a one, as it appears to be a typically tricky weekday Irish meeting.
And talk about "bookies' benefits" tracks; if you ask me the AW flat meets, and even them summer Hunter Chase meetings pale into comparison when it comes to them damn 'Jumper's Bumpers' blasted meets :mad: And then they're almost always on that sheet Standard to Slow going :rolleyes: Good luck to anyone that can solve any race there.
Also, when I first looked at Warwick this morn. , the going was soft, or soft-good to soft in places - It's now soft - heavy in places I believe... Luckily, I don't think it (the different going) will make much difference to my selections' chances.
That's it for now from me anyway.. Best of luck if yere following...
EDIT: PS, for someone like me; who likes to find a few big priced selections; I suppose that them Jumpas Bumpas provide good fodder for finding a big priced pick or three... I'll have a look, but I doubt I'll find one, and if I do, I couldn't really be confident...
Mohareb nowhere... Went from the front; came under pressure over a furlong out and faded into nowhere 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »6.00 Wol Laurentia 7/1 win , Amor Fati 18/1 win
No joy at all there.
Up for the day at least 0 -
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A few AP selections for this Saturday 20 Feb
* Betfair Ascot Chase
Fanion D'estruval 14/1 e/w , Kalashnikov 7/1 e/w , Riders Onthe Storm 18/1 e/w
Happy enough to oppose the favourites in this Saturday feature event. I hope that at least two of these turn up, and with the lack of racing recently I will look forwards, and chance a few for the near future. A few meetings on today, granted, but as far as finding winners, inspiration isn't so good.
Anyway, onto the selections.
Fanion D'estruval is only 6 and hasn't had many outings. Has mainly raced over 2 miles, and lto at Ascot he was staying on over 4 or so furlongs shorter. Had one attempt at approx 2 1/2 miles, which was last December gone, when he appeared to be travelling and staying on; only to fall 3 out. Is also entered at Newbury on Sunday, and is a much shorter price for that, and it's over 2 miles, but I do hope he goes to Ascot.
Kalashnikov will have to go down as a "favourable mention" :pac: . I like him, and have backed him for the Ryanair, but Amy seems to prefer that Denman Chase at Newbury. So, no bet on him, but he's entitled to a mention, cos I like him a lot
I really hope Amy wasn't shinin' me on, but seeing as he's not a massive price, I'm happy to leave him go, and wish connections all the best with him on Sunday
Riders Onthe Storm seemed to be very good last year, and at the backend of 2019 after being sent from Tom Taaffe's over to Nigel's. He fell in the Ryanair last year when travelling okay, but his last two runs have been relatively poor. The fact that he's a two time C & D winner (both on heavy) , and won this last year makes him a bet at the prices. Guess what? - he also has an entry at Newbury in that Game Spirit race that Fanion D'estruval is entered in, but I feel two miles is too short for him.
So, to clarify - 2 each way bets, and the other mentioned is merely a 'favourable'..
And I hope that the two out of the three I'm hoping will participate (apart from Kalashnikov) do show up for this ...
Only 4 went in this last year, so going antepost there should be 3 places for anyone betting early doors
* I see that there are prices available for this, and these are the general prices, but the bookie I bet with hasn't it priced up.. :mad: So, I may have to abort these if the prices change drastically, or if there's no odds available from them before the decs - cos I want them 3 places a fifth ; the thinking is if the race cuts up drastically there will be only 2 places, or win only.
EDIT Done them two horses e/w Fanion D'estruval 16s , Riders Onthe Storm 22/1. 3 places, so I only need 1 to hit one of them places to recoup - just hope they go now Maybe the race'll cut up, and my two picks will participate in a 4 runner affair :pac: 
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Some AP picks for Sunday.
Newbury: Betfair Hurdle 3.35. Buzz 10/1 , Lightly Squeeze 16/1 , Shakem Up'arry 14/1 , Milkwood 14/1
All these EW (1/4 1-2-3-4)
For to get a good shout in on Sunday
Same as yesterday - not much inspiration with today's cards, so looking forwards. Will most likely be at least 5 places on offer on the day; and perhaps even six, but I don't feel like waiting, so will settle for doing these in advance.
Buzz is topweight, and this ex flat horse is lightly raced for a seven year old. Has been running some good races in grades 1 and 2 recently, and carries topweight - alleviated a bit by Kevin brogan's 5lb claim. Should not be far away, and might go off shorter.
Lightly Squeeze was going well in this last year, when falling at the last; albeit on better ground. Is rated 2 lbs higher now, but he has some good form on soft, and appears to like the course, where he returns for only his second run there. Lto at Ascot he tackled 3fs further on soft-heavy going, where he didn't appear to stay. Like Buzz, he's a seven yr old, and no reason why he shouldn't give a good account.
Shakem Up'arry is another 7yr old who is lightly raced. Has twice ran over C & D - on soft and heavy going, where he finished second on both occasions. One who likes to race prominently, but probably prefers to lead, and has a bit of a tendency to be keen-going in his races. There will no doubt be a few who like to try and make all in this, so can only hope he settles at least; whether he's close to, or at the front. Will only be his eighth run over hurdles, so may be open to improvement, and if he gets into a decent rhythm is another potential winner I feel, with a light enough weight of 10-10 on his back.
Milkwood is also 7, and might prove the classiest of all in this. He came a very good third lto over C & D, but doesn't appear the most straightforward; often racing keenly, and at, or close to the rear. Don't know how he'll fare in this big field, but I think that the soft ground will suit (as long as it doesn't get heavy - currently the going is described as good to soft - soft in places) ; and I'd like to think he can put it all together on this occasion, and to be coming with a wet sail towards the finish.
Will give Cadzand a 'favourable' , but this 5/1 fav is a bit short for my liking.
Most of the books will probably be going 5 places on the day, and perhaps some will go six. As I'm not signed up to a lot of them; 5 plcs a fifth is probably best I could hope for, but I'm happy to go with these at a quarter odds, and 2 places will do. Then again, if some don't turn up I'll lose regardless, but that's the chance one takes.
I would wait for the day itself if I knew I'd be getting 6 places, and PP will probably be offering those terms, but I aint with him; and, if I was;
then I would be inclined to hold fire.. Prices aint massive either, and may well be similar on the day, so another reason to keep one's powder dry until the day; but me, I want me a quarter da odds, and a reason to look forward to shouting at telly at weekend. It's acceptable on weekends, what with major sportin' occasions an' such taking place on Sundays 0 -
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^^^
wins cosily. Didn't intentionally put her up late, but was checking results, and saw that I missed out on two #winners (well one won - Mercurist in the 1.45, and the other one (Sepahi) came 2nd in the first at a big price). Didn't actually miss out on them , but was a bit pi55ed with myself, as I put them both up here before, when they came nowhere.
Wasn't really watching the racing at all today, but "missing out" prompted me to have a look at the next race (was about 10 mins before the off at that stage), and it didn't take much looking, as the race had cut up with 3 horses taken out - two of which I've backed before (several times ) in Hotalena, and Mops Gem.
Was a race that didn't take a lot of solving, and The Pretty Way almost leapt off the page, on the back of her recent showings.
Anyway, hopefully a few got on, and she finished at 9/4 which is a very good price considering - I think she should have been around 6/4ish myself; but it's easy to say that after the fact
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Re my latest post - I put up a lot of horses that run on the AW, and they usually win in their turn.. If I put up one that doesn't oblige on the day, but wins at 9/2 (unless it's next time out that is :pac:), or shorter, a few races later I aint too put out; as it's only when they win or come placed at a proper price, say 6/1 or more (think that Mercurist was available at 8s earlier) a few races later that I feel like I've missed one (esp if I look at the form after, and probably would have backed it).
I'll still probably continue to put up my "cliff horses" :pac: though, every time they run; donkeys that they are, like that Giogiobbo (another late one) yesterday... Least said about him the better
Am still waiting for that Finoah to run again :P , as I said he'd win in his next run, or the run after that (when I put him up before, and he came nowhere - don't think he was trying that day) ; well he's had the first of those runs already, and came nowhere.. Be definitely be keeping an eye out for him, and if he's racing at approx 9fs at Wolves, and the price is good, he'll surely get a shout out from me in advance, like I try to put all my picks up, but sometimes one just "sees one" late in the piece... C'est La Vie
That's enough of that "shudda wudda cudda" talk from me... for one day
Mrs Barclay's is still at 16s for the race after this upcoming one, but I hope he doesn't know his price 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »17/02
4.20 Wolves Mansfield 11/1 e/w
Can go well here at a value price. One that will be staying on late, so am hoping Mrs Barclay's inmate can get his fourth win from his 57th start tomorrow, as there are a few in this who like to go from the front, so it will likely be a fast run race. If the jockey can get a decent possy early on, and the gaps appear at the right time this five furlongs course winner can go very close. Is dropping down the weights, and has been backed the last twice. Faye takes off 3. There's enough to like for me.
Got a place there, and well happy with that. Faye sent him on early in third position or so, and he ran wide for a while, and also looked a bit keen, or maybe caught on heels about 2fs out... Coming up the stretch he looked like getting 4th, but rallied past a fading horse to get third at 18/1... Not too shabby 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »I banned myself from the main thread on this forum - folk weren't happy to see me throw up multiple selections :pac:
I see that a popular horse on that thread, that was once part-owned by a regular poster is out tomorrow - Seas Of Elzaam goes in the 7.00 at Chelmsford tomorrow over 7fs; which he's won at before, albeit in a Class 5 last September. That was off a rating of 69, and he tackles tomorrow's Class 4 off 78. No reason why he shouldn't go well. Is 6/1 on the Probable SP under the racecard, and that seems a fair enough price if it's offered later... One to consider anyway.
18/02
Seas Of Elzaam 11/2 e/w , Full Intention 9/2 e/w
Seas Of Elzaam is a course and distance winner from September in a Class 5.. This is a Class 4, but that race was in a fast time, and he can go close if on a going day..
Full Intention is another who is a C & D winner that is capable of winning this. He needs to get into a rhythm though, as can race keenly at times. Drawn in 4; will hope he gets out well for a good sit, and maybe try make all, but if something else goes to the front then he also has every chance in an open race.
Gluck
EDIT 7.00 Chelmsford is the race0 -
Deleted User wrote: »7.50 Kempton Amnaa 33/1 e/w
A C & D winner in December. Returns to the scene of the crime tonight with similar conditions, and a good draw in 3.
Beaten for a place in the shadow of the post 0 -
Deleted User wrote: »8.20 Kempton Kit's Allanah 5/1 win
One of them 'thread standing dishes' , who has yet to win. Has seen some money... Looks like she handles polytrack. Will probably try to make all here, and is drawn well in stall 1 to do just that..
2nd - ran well for a long way from the front, but was ran out of it in the last 1/2 furlong, and the favourite won easy,,,,0 -
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