Racing Uncertainties

Had a good run there lately - the last six (think it were 6) days' selections all yielded a profit; until today, where thread ended up level... Purple patch ends, but not on a losing day,, Was good while it lasted

Managed to get into that 5% profit level, that I hoped I'd be at about a hundred points ago; when I was at about 950 points staked, and down overall. Think the target at the time was to be up that 5% mentioned at about 1,300 pts (can't remember exactly how many points I was in, or the amount I was down on thread, or the amount of points I set myself to hit that target. Can't be bothered looking for that post) . I do know I wanted to get to 5% profit, and now I'd like to get it to seven, or more, in the next 75-200 points.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

29/12

Running P & L -50.1pts

Invested 27pts. Late Date 3.07 NR @ 2pts, Zeyzoun 4.30 NR @ 2pts. 23pts in play.

Returns:

11.40 Gipsy Lee Rose places at 5/1 at a quarter the odds returning 2.2pts
12.12 Deluxe Range (done e/w at 4/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 6.8pts
3.07 Scoop The Pot (done e/w at 11/4) places at a fifth the odds with a 15p rule 4 returning 1.4pts

Total in play 23pts - returns 10.4pts

Loss for the day 12.6pts

Running invested total - 906pts

Total P & L -62.7pts

Post below is from 29/12/2020

Deleted User wrote: »

Not at all good recently. At one stage the thread was up ~15%, and now alas, it's at about a 7% deficit.

Am due a bit of a run - in the next 350-400pts (if it lasts that long) I'd like to be at >5% profit. A lowly enough ambition, but quite a few points to claw back, and don't want to set sights too high...

I will keep trying anyway

Deleted User wrote: »

Had a good run there lately - the last six (think it were 6) days' selections all yielded a profit; until today, where thread ended up level... Purple patch ends, but not on a losing day,, Was good while it lasted

Managed to get into that 5% profit level, that I hoped I'd be at about a hundred points ago; when I was at about 950 points staked, and down overall. Think the target at the time was to be up that 5% mentioned at about 1,300 pts (can't remember exactly how many points I was in, or the amount I was down on thread, or the amount of points I set myself to hit that target. Can't be bothered looking for that post) . I do know I wanted to get to 5% profit, and now I'd like to get it to seven, or more, in the next 75-200 points.

Found the post I was on about, and the one immediately preceding it, which had the current P & L figure/s for the time.

18/02

8.00 Chelmsford Nicky Baby 40/1 e/w

A bit of a punt this one. Sophie Ralston on top, who is the only jockey to win on him - that sole win was over C & D about 2 years ago. A horse with moderate ability, but is drawn low in box 1, which is good, as he is seen at his best when he leads, or takes a lead. Some of these like to be held up, and some may be forced to lie off the pace from their wide draws, as those drawn lowest in 1, 2, and 3 are types who often like to frontrun, or be up with the pace. I would like the selection to take a lead from The King's Steed (box 2) , or Cristal Pallas Cat (3 box); as when the grey has raced close to the pace at Chelmsford over C & D he tends not to be too far away, with two third places here about this time last year. A place would be nice, and anything more a definite bonus. The King's Steed is also interesting; having seen some support, and carries topweight, but just the selection for me here.

3.58 Fontwell Kenyan Cowboy 16/1 e/w

Topweight, and having only his fifth run over hurdles. Only his second run in a handicap - the first of which was a Class 4 lto - , and he's in a Class 5 today. Will most likely try and make all, and he didn't fare so badly 2 runs back using these tactics when finishing third over the same trip in a Chepstow maiden, which was also on Heavy. He cost £45,000 as a 4yr old, and is owned by, presumably, a relative of the jockey Max Kendrick. Can only hope that this 5yr old will turn out to be the best horse in the race, and that he goes and proves it today.

1.30 Leicester Hot Smoked 9/1 win.

Only 2 chase runs, and 10 in total with 6 hurdles' runs, and two on the NH flat. A horse who is yet to win, and in this race there are a few who like to lead, so perhaps they will cut each other's throats. This one likes to race behind the leaders, and wasn't too far away in third on her second chase start in March of last year, when racing over two miles on heavy at Taunton. Has had a recent pipe opener since that run (her 2nd last) at Fontwell last month in a hurdles' race. Sports a first time tonguestrap, and has drifted from a decent looking price to an even better one. I hope she wins.

Gluck all

2.30 Sandown Little Mo 15/2 e/w

3 places on offer here, with 8 going to post. Only her third run over hurdles. In her last two races over two miles; she tried, and succeeded, to make all (on soft, and heavy going) . Apparently the *goingstick is 3.5 (which is about as heavy as it gets at Sandown, sayeth the clerk of the course). Am hoping that she will get an unassailable lead over her more fancied rivals; assuming she stays this far (just shy of 2 1/2 miles at 2m. 3f. 173yds) - looks like she will.

*I don't have a clue about 'goingsticks' , but apparently 3.5 is very heavy/testing.

Gluck all who are following

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

1.30 Leicester Hot Smoked 9/1 win.

Only 2 chase runs, and 10 in total with 6 hurdles' runs, and two on the NH flat. A horse who is yet to win, and in this race there are a few who like to lead, so perhaps they will cut each other's throats. This one likes to race behind the leaders, and wasn't too far away in third on her second chase start in March of last year, when racing over two miles on heavy at Taunton. Has had a recent pipe opener since that run (her 2nd last) at Fontwell last month in a hurdles' race. Sports a first time tonguestrap, and has drifted from a decent looking price to an even better one. I hope she wins.

Gluck all

Pulled up

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

2.30 Sandown Little Mo 15/2 e/w

3 places on offer here, with 8 going to post. Only her third run over hurdles. In her last two races over two miles; she tried, and succeeded, to make all (on soft, and heavy going) . Apparently the *goingstick is 3.5 (which is about as heavy as it gets at Sandown, sayeth the clerk of the course). Am hoping that she will get an unassailable lead over her more fancied rivals; assuming she stays this far (just shy of 2 1/2 miles at 2m. 3f. 173yds) - looks like she will.

*I don't have a clue about 'goingsticks' , but apparently 3.5 is very heavy/testing.

Gluck all who are following

Nothing there either

18/02

Running P & L +73.9pts

Invested 11pts

Returns:

7.00 Full Intention (done e/w @ 9/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 1.9pts

Total in play 11pts - returns 1.9pts

Loss for the day 9.1pts

Running invested total - 1,423 pts

Total P & L + 64.8pts

20/02
Haydock
1.30 Marown 2/1 win
5.00 Garde Ville 80/1 e/w

Lingfield
12.15 Furzig 11/1 e/w
2.36 Anniemation 8/1 e/w

Newcastle
6.00 Buzz Lightyere 40/1 e/w
7.30 Longroom 22/1 e/w

Hope some of these can land a blow

2.13 Wincanton Caid Du Lin 16/1 e/w

Might fill one of the two places here.

Nothing with Furzig - out the back, and never got into the 12.15 Lingfield race

Update to include AP bets

20/02

Running P & L + 64.8pts

Invested 4 pts Betfair Ascot Chase.

Fanion D'estruval not declared, Riders Onthe Storm unplaced.

Invested 4pts - returns none.

Loss 4pts

Running invested total 1,427 pts

Total P & L + 60.8pts

6.00 Newcastle Switzer 7/1 win

21/02

Newbury 2.25 Denman Chase Kalashnikov 7/1 win

Has form at the course from his hurdles' win over shorter a few years ago. In 11 chase starts, he's either won or come second in 8 of those. Been a long time since the Nicholls' fav Clan has won, and I can see him being vulnerable in this. Slight worry for the selection is that he's never won beyond 2 1/2 miles (has never raced beyond that trip either, apart from a hurdles' sharpener; when running over 3 miles at Haydock after a ten month absence in November). Nonetheless, Amy Murphy's stable star should give a good account here. Hopefully he goes well tomorrow, to set him up for a tilt at Ryanair.

20/02

Running P & L + 60.8pts

Invested 14pts

Returns - none

Total in play 14pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 14pts

Running invested total - 1,441 pts

Total P & L + 46.8pts

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

21/02

Newbury 2.25 Denman Chase Kalashnikov 7/1 win

Has form at the course from his hurdles' win over shorter a few years ago. In 11 chase starts, he's either won or come second in 8 of those. Been a long time since the Nicholls' fav Clan has won, and I can see him being vulnerable in this. Slight worry for the selection is that he's never won beyond 2 1/2 miles (has never raced beyond that trip either, apart from a hurdles' sharpener; when running over 3 miles at Haydock after a ten month absence in November). Nonetheless, Amy Murphy's stable star should give a good account here. Hopefully he goes well tomorrow, to set him up for a tilt at Ryanair.

4/1 now on the show...

Only third

21/02

Running P & L + 46.8pts

Invested 1pt, and 4 AP picks at 1/4 4 places for Betfair Hurdle = 9pts

Returns - none

Invested 9pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 9pts

Running invested total - 1,450 pts

Total P & L + 37.8pts

Tomorrow - Monday 22/02/2020

6.40 Wolves Roca Magica 11/1 win

Runs over the extended mile here. Has had 5 wins, and all of them over a mile at three different tracks (but not Wolverhampton). Ed Dunlop's mare has had three spins here without winning. One of those was over tomorrow's trip; albeit in the lowest grade of all, and in that race in January of last year, she ran well, but was a bit unlucky and finished third. I think she's the type that needs an even pace, and to come with a sustained rattle at the end. Doesn't appear to have a lot in hand regards handicap mark (but is 2lbs lower than most recent winning mark, and might be unexposed at track and trip), but she does seem to run well this time of the year, with two wins last February.

Gluck all

7.40 Wolves Siavash 20/1 e/w

Will give this thread "standing dish" another chance.. Has done nothing since his first run; when he won at the course, at about a furlong shorter, on his first ever run, which was last November. Has drifted out to a respectable price, and if he doesn't run well I'll most likely put him up next time out. One of those I don't really want to back; but, also, don't want to 'not back' , lest he wins :P

Deleted User

Originally posted 14th Nov (date 3rd last run)

Deleted User wrote: »

2.58 Wetherby Multellie 14/1

Likes soft ground, and the price is good. Each way.

Pity this one wasn't a "thread standing dish"

Just won at Carlisle at 9/1

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Tomorrow - Monday 22/02/2020

6.40 Wolves Roca Magica 11/1 win

Runs over the extended mile here. Has had 5 wins, and all of them over a mile at three different tracks (but not Wolverhampton). Ed Dunlop's mare has had three spins here without winning. One of those was over tomorrow's trip; albeit in the lowest grade of all, and in that race in January of last year, she ran well, but was a bit unlucky and finished third. I think she's the type that needs an even pace, and to come with a sustained rattle at the end. Doesn't appear to have a lot in hand regards handicap mark (but is 2lbs lower than most recent winning mark, and might be unexposed at track and trip), but she does seem to run well this time of the year, with two wins last February.

Gluck all

2020 - those were the days :pac:

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

7.40 Wolves Siavash 20/1 e/w

Will give this thread "standing dish" another chance.. Has done nothing since his first run; when he won at the course, at about a furlong shorter, on his first ever run, which was last November. Has drifted out to a respectable price, and if he doesn't run well I'll most likely put him up next time out. One of those I don't really want to back; but, also, don't want to 'not back' , lest he wins :P

Another pick in this race, and it's another "standing dish"

7.40 Wolves Paddyplex 14/1 e/w

Has won before, and I'd be loathe to quote another standing dish winner should this one oblige :cool:.. Not quite the reason I'm selecting him here though... He's only ran once before at the track - not a bad run over C & D at the end of 2019. He's raced several times at Newcastle, and has a win there. Having done nothing for a long time; and, having been through a few trainers in his career, he is now back with Keith Dalgleish, who is the only one of his three trainers to get a win out of him.

He's dropping down the weights, has drifted out to a backable price, and both the trainer and jockey have been in form lately; including a 3 from 8 strike rate from the combo in the last three weeks.

Quite a few in this drifting, but that's probably due to the outstanding paper claims of the well-backed favoureete Hector's here; and Loughnane's Starfighter is also one with decent recent form.

But; as I've mentioned before nowt is certain in this game , and hopefully Paddy or "Sea of Ash" can give a good account here, with Paddy being the more likely of the two..

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Tomorrow - Monday 22/02/2020

6.40 Wolves Roca Magica 11/1 win

Runs over the extended mile here. Has had 5 wins, and all of them over a mile at three different tracks (but not Wolverhampton). Ed Dunlop's mare has had three spins here without winning. One of those was over tomorrow's trip; albeit in the lowest grade of all, and in that race in January of last year, she ran well, but was a bit unlucky and finished third. I think she's the type that needs an even pace, and to come with a sustained rattle at the end. Doesn't appear to have a lot in hand regards handicap mark (but is 2lbs lower than most recent winning mark, and might be unexposed at track and trip), but she does seem to run well this time of the year, with two wins last February.

Gluck all

No good - ran way too keen... Head in the air for half the race

One for tomorrow.

6.40 Newcastle Rathbone 15/2 e/w

Has yet to win over 7. A few seconds at that trip at the course though, and his run lto over course and distance saw him not beaten far in fifth . He's drawn in the 6 box, which will likely suit based on his running style. This is one I feel whose run has to be timed to perfection, as he just appears to be the sort that shouldn't hit the front too soon. He's raced over 6 and 7 at Newcastle, and has never been beaten (never won either) far there. Megan Nicholls on top for the second time; the first of those saw her finishing a good second over 6 at Ascot (when well supported) last September.

His price is reasonable; if not overly generous, and may be bigger elsewhere, but will do me.
Am hoping Megan will get a good tune out of ol' "Basil" , and I make it 4/7 that the folks on Sky Sports Racing will get a Sherlock Holmes' reference (or 3) in

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

7.40 Wolves Siavash 20/1 e/w

Will give this thread "standing dish" another chance.. Has done nothing since his first run; when he won at the course, at about a furlong shorter, on his first ever run, which was last November. Has drifted out to a respectable price, and if he doesn't run well I'll most likely put him up next time out. One of those I don't really want to back; but, also, don't want to 'not back' , lest he wins :P

Still drifting - 28s now. Only about 3 minutes for him to see some late money from the shrewd Evans' stable...

^^^^

shortening just a bit - into 22/1

Nothing there at all in the 7.40

22/02

Running P & L + 37.8pts

Invested 5pts

Returns - none

Invested 5pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 5pts

Running invested total - 1,455 pts

Total P & L + 32.8pts