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Racing Uncertainties
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Deleted User wrote: »One for tomorrow.
6.40 Newcastle Rathbone 15/2 e/w
Has yet to win over 7. A few seconds at that trip at the course though, and his run lto over course and distance saw him not beaten far in fifth . He's drawn in the 6 box, which will likely suit based on his running style. This is one I feel whose run has to be timed to perfection, as he just appears to be the sort that shouldn't hit the front too soon. He's raced over 6 and 7 at Newcastle, and has never been beaten (never won either) far there. Megan Nicholls on top for the second time; the first of those saw her finishing a good second over 6 at Ascot (when well supported) last September.
His price is reasonable; if not overly generous, and may be bigger elsewhere, but will do me.
Am hoping Megan will get a good tune out of ol' "Basil" , and I make it 4/7 that the folks on Sky Sports Racing will get a Sherlock Holmes' reference (or 3) in
13/2 best price atm. Lots of 11/2 and 6/1 about.. Hopefully "Basil" will oblige
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Deleted User wrote: »One for tomorrow.
6.40 Newcastle Rathbone 15/2 e/w
Has yet to win over 7. A few seconds at that trip at the course though, and his run lto over course and distance saw him not beaten far in fifth . He's drawn in the 6 box, which will likely suit based on his running style. This is one I feel whose run has to be timed to perfection, as he just appears to be the sort that shouldn't hit the front too soon. He's raced over 6 and 7 at Newcastle, and has never been beaten (never won either) far there. Megan Nicholls on top for the second time; the first of those saw her finishing a good second over 6 at Ascot (when well supported) last September.
His price is reasonable; if not overly generous, and may be bigger elsewhere, but will do me.
Am hoping Megan will get a good tune out of ol' "Basil" , and I make it 4/7 that the folks on Sky Sports Racing will get a Sherlock Holmes' reference (or 3) in
No good.. Never got into it.. On the "wrong" side (far side) the whole race
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leffesem ... Good going. A tad over 2% profit for a fairly large bet count of close to 1500. Lot of paid services would do well to have that after that number of bets. Keep em coming. 2% prob wouldnt appeal to the majority of punters as we know most punters want 500% profit on every bet. but there are ones amongst us that know 2% is 20X times more than the Bank of Ireland's 0.1% ( in my case anyways ) paid on deposits and even that 0.1% is subject to DIRT. 0
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Tuesday 9 March 2021.
A few with some sort of chance I hope.
1.35 Exeter What A Glance 40/1 e/w
Only his third run over hurdles. Was beaten close to 40 lengths on his first run at a similar trip as tomorrow, but that was on soft/close to soft ground, and the race, however, was ran in a quick time. Lto he was beaten a similar distance, but that was over 2 1/2 miles approx on ground similar to the previous run. On his first ever run; which was in a bumper, he did come a respectable third on heavy enough going, and although the going is good to soft tomorrow I'm hoping it will suit in this attempt. I don't see why it shouldn't, as he's yet to try it. Also, the three market principals have either been running over further, or heavier, or a combination of both, so I wouldn't be surprised if only 1 out of no's 2, 7, and 9 make the frame, so plenty of each way scope here methinks.
2.05 Exeter Perfect Predator 16/1 e/w
Has decent enough claims based on some of his runs last year, although the trip might be on the sharpish side. Has moved stables and is now with D J Jeffreys, having been formerly trained by Alan King. Will only be his fourth run for his new connections, and interestingly it's on better ground than the previous three. He has been losing the lbs due to his moderate (to say the least) form of late. I'm counting on the better ground, and his handicap mark dropping being a big help here, and not least the fact that he's now with a smaller trainer who should be able to devote more time to his charges. The aforementioned Mr Jeffreys has also been among the winners as of late, so there's that too, and the price that he's available at suggests he hasn't been overlooked - looking at the form figures the price looks skimpy enough, but looking beyond those, and it's close enough to fair . Always want them bigger prices, but what's on offer is good enough for me.
4.40 Southwell Giogiobbo 15/2 e/w
A standing dish, and put up before at way bigger; but, unlike those other times the selection appears to actually have a chance here (would want to at its single figure price
). Has a chance at the weights, and the 5fs trip at Southwell. Has only the one win to his name, and may well need some strong urging, but I trust the sniper will be able to galvanize him, on only Luke Morris' 2nd spin on Scott Dixon's beast. Torn between win and each way here, but 'topweight in a handicap' sways me towards the latter, and I suppose he's due one/should go close, and will trust that he'll be there or thereabouts.
Gluck anyone who's tryna speculate to accumulate 0 -
Deleted User wrote: »Tuesday 9 March 2021.
A few with some sort of chance I hope.
1.35 Exeter What A Glance 40/1 e/w
Only his third run over hurdles. Was beaten close to 40 lengths on his first run at a similar trip as tomorrow, but that was on soft/close to soft ground, and the race, however, was ran in a quick time. Lto he was beaten a similar distance, but that was over 2 1/2 miles approx on ground similar to the previous run. On his first ever run; which was in a bumper, he did come a respectable third on heavy enough going, and although the going is good to soft tomorrow I'm hoping it will suit in this attempt. I don't see why it shouldn't, as he's yet to try it. Also, the three market principals have either been running over further, or heavier, or a combination of both, so I wouldn't be surprised if only 1 out of no's 2, 7, and 9 make the frame, so plenty of each way scope here methinks.
No joy there A respectable enough, but well beat 5th. Was wrong about them jollies.. Fav, third fav, and second fav filled the first 3 spots in that order - so much for only one of them making the frame 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »Tomorrow - Monday 22/02/2020
6.40 Wolves Roca Magica 11/1 win
Runs over the extended mile here. Has had 5 wins, and all of them over a mile at three different tracks (but not Wolverhampton). Ed Dunlop's mare has had three spins here without winning. One of those was over tomorrow's trip; albeit in the lowest grade of all, and in that race in January of last year, she ran well, but was a bit unlucky and finished third. I think she's the type that needs an even pace, and to come with a sustained rattle at the end. Doesn't appear to have a lot in hand regards handicap mark (but is 2lbs lower than most recent winning mark, and might be unexposed at track and trip), but she does seem to run well this time of the year, with two wins last February.
Gluck all
8.00 Newcastle
Put the wrong year up when I put this one up last month.
Anyway, she's out again tomorrow is Roca Magica, and available at about 6/1. Has ran once before over C & D, and was held up and finished a well beat 7th. Her finishing position lto at Wolves (when coming 4th) was probably better than the bare form, as she ran with her head in the air most of the race.
She is drawn 4th of 10 here in the 8.00, and the 'low numbers' side is a poor position to be in; especially if trying to lie up with the pace. If she's held up and veers towards the near side, she may go well.
She's never won before on the Tapeta; either at Wolves or Newcastle, and the Standard to slow going is also a bit of an unknown. So, she does have a few question marks, and 6/1 does seem a bit skinny for this one. It's 11/4 the field here, so if I was putting her up as a "selection" I would need to look at all the other horses to see if she was worth a punt at the price available (Be happy to back her at 9s though) . Normally if in an open looking race -when going each way- I'd not bother looking at much of the rest of them if I thought: A-The price was fair, and B-The selection appeared to have a chance.
Why am I mentioning her then? Good question :P
1: Because I've often lamented a selection winning a run or two later at a decent price (when I've not put them up) , 2: I haven't put up many lately, and 3: I may well back her yet.
As it stands I will mark her down as a favourable..... Can read into that what ye will, but I wouldn't put anyone off having a lil on her nose. If I changes my mind I will put her up tomorrow as a 'Thread Selection' . Atm, win or lose this one is more an observation than a pick.. If I decide to make her a pick I will post on her again tomoro...
Regardless.. Gluck to puntin Boardsies, and a shout out to 'mayoman' for that 25/1 winner he put up yesterday (the only selection, and advised at 20/1.. I saw it when it was 18s, but just couldn't bring myself to back it). I believe he had a good enough day today as well going by the posts on his thread (didn't look at results) 'Why would anyone give away good tips.' 0 -
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1.10 Fakenham Lady Vera 66/1 e/w , Dream Du Grand Val 16/1 e/w
Taking a bit of a punt on Lady Vera based on her run in a Bumper in Ireland last September , and I think a case can be made for Dream Du Grand Val on some of his form in 2019; plus he's down in grade, and racing on better ground. The competition look a poor enough bunch, with no standout contenders; so two ew picks with 2 places on offer.
Gluck, and hon Santini! 0 -
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