Racing Uncertainties

^^^^^

Above ran no sort of race - was out the gates slow, and that put paid to any glimmer of a chance he may have had..

01/04

Running P & L -27.4pts

Invested 21pts. 1.55 Wax And Wane ew nr, 3.20 Largy Mouth ew nr. 17pts in play.

Returns:

3.50 Bafana Blue (done ew) wins at 11/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 15.7pts
4.37 Bob Mahler (done ew) places at 12/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3.4pts

Invested 17pts - returns 19.1pts

Profit for the day 2.1pts

Running invested total - 1,705 pts

Total P & L -25.3pts

02/04

Newcastle 2.15 Kapono 5/1 ew

A nice enough price to hopefully win here, or to come second for a marginal profit. Only 6 go to post, and is drawn low in box 1. Normally I consider this to be the 'wrong' side, but, as there's only six runners in the field; I'm hoping it won't make a difference. He normally runs a held up race, but can be seen to better effect when he's up with the lead. He is a C & D winner in a grade lower last Oct. I'm thinking the MJ horse Gobi Sunset will try make all, and if selection follows him, he should win.

4.30 Reely Bonnie 22/1 ew
An absence to overcome, only has 10 runs, has a good draw in 10, has only one win to her name and that was over 6f on turf. Her second last run, which was over 6 at the course in November saw her staying on at the end. She's four now, so am hoping the 7f trip her will be well within her compass.

Gluck

One for tomorrow, as it's priced up.

Musselburgh 3.35 Betway Queen's Cup (Heritage Handicap) Diocletian 12/1 EW 1/5 1-4

The ground is good to soft - good in places, which seems fine for him. The selection has been running mainly in hurdles' races lately, so a bit of a negative that is. Haven't much data on the draw, but, looking at the few races I could find at around the 14f course trip, with a decent amount of runners; it would seem that middle to highish do well here. He's drawn low in one.

Anyway, he's usually held up towards the rear in his races, so draw shouldn't matter too much. Another slight negative is that he does have a tendency to run keen at times, especially in his latest 4 outings, which were also his only 4 outings in the NH sphere. He does have one serious piece of form, although it's going back to late 2019 over a similar trip at Chester. That was on good, and it's enough to outweigh any negatives for me, as well as his price. If, like I hope, he has a live chance, I expect him to go off shorter, so will no bother waiting till this eve for BOG (I wouldn't think that would be available at this junction). Also, half the field have absences of over 100 days to overcome. Trainer Andrew Balding has also been among the winners lately.

More hopeful than confident of a bold showing, but there's a lot of imponderables in this race, as many might not be fully tuned up, and no standout contender in this marathon race, which is one of the biggest early season decent flat handicaps so far.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

02/04

Newcastle 2.15 Kapono 5/1 ew

A nice enough price to hopefully win here, or to come second for a marginal profit. Only 6 go to post, and is drawn low in box 1. Normally I consider this to be the 'wrong' side, but, as there's only six runners in the field; I'm hoping it won't make a difference. He normally runs a held up race, but can be seen to better effect when he's up with the lead. He is a C & D winner in a grade lower last Oct. I'm thinking the MJ horse Gobi Sunset will try make all, and if selection follows him, he should win.

Gluck

7/1 now - I guess I can understand the drift cos he may need the race to pan out a certain way. A very very good price tho, in my humble.

I aint getting the plunge on the fav Broctune Red in this race, who's into a best-priced 6/4 from 5/2. Been running well alright at the course recently, winning 3 of his last 4. But those were all over a mile, and in Class 6s, apart from his lto run, when he came 2nd, which was in a Class 4. I think 7f is a bit on the sharp side for the Gillian Boanas/Oliver Stammers combo.

1.50 Chelmsford Katheefa 40/1 ew

Has a chance here. Not won much at this trip, but has won over 7 at Southwell. A lot of pace on, so should be able to get a good sit out the back, and if he's good enough, to take his chance and get the likely gaps at the end. Has won a few times over 6, and was staying on well at the end of those, including a Class 3 over 6 at today's course.. Not without a chance by any means.

Gluck

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I aint getting the plunge on the fav Broctune Red in this race, who's into a best-priced 6/4 from 5/2. Been running well alright at the course recently, winning 3 of his last 4. But those were all over a mile, and in Class 6s, apart from his lto run, when he came 2nd, which was in a Class 4. I think 7f is a bit on the sharp side for the Gillian Boanas/Oliver Stammers combo.

About 4/5 now for the 2.15... Would def appeal as a 2-place lay at about 1.41/1.42..

3.10 Lingfield Tinto 11/1 ew

5.30 Newcastle Buniann 5/2 win

Should be able to follow Kind Review, and get a good lead in to the race, and hopefully pass the jamstick in front.

5.15 Lingfield Total Commitment 11/2 ew

Looks an ew bet to nothing. They usually go a good clip in these apprentice races. The selection goes well over 6 and 7fs, so should be fine to be up with the pace, if that's the plan, from box 5.

A poor day today.

Tomorrow Wolves 7.00 About Glory 9/1 ew

Looks a decent price.. Shouldn't be far away provided he breaks well from the one box.. Is a good price, and has definite win or place possibilities.. He came a decent third last time he tackled C & D in January.

8.30 Wolves Seaforth 25/1 ew

Has a chance with a return to form. Has to put a few bad runs behind him, but can excuse a couple of those as he was drawn low, which was probably not ideal for one that needs holding up. Angus Villiers takes 5 off too.

4.52 Newton Abbot Milrow 20/1 ew

2nd run after an almost 2 year absence.. Form before that was relatively poor for some time. He is dropping a long way down the weights though, can put in an odd good run, and ran alright the two times he ran at the course; albeit a few years ago now. Is just about a backable price all things considered, and am hoping the long absence was in a bid to get him right, with perhaps the last run which was over substantially shorter, being used to get him to race fitness.

4.11 Musselburgh Machree 9/1 ew

Drawn in the middle in box 8 should be a good place to be for this mare who likes to race prominently. No real reason why this one's the pick, but the price is okay, and it might suit to be up with the pace here. 5 places on offer here, and if the topweight's on form will hope that Hanagan can add to his impressive strike rate at the course.

02/04

Running P & L -25.3pts

Invested 11pts.

Returns:

2.15 Kapono (done ew) places at 5/1 at a quarter the odds returning 2.2pts

Invested 11pts - returns 2.2pts

Loss for the day 8.8pts

Running invested total - 1,716 pts

Total P & L -34.1pts

2.40 Haydock Mahlermade 14/1 ew

C & D winner, low weight. Won this in 2019 - only race this 8yr old has ever won. Conditions look softer than he normally tackles, but I'm hoping the ground won't be a concern. Runs more bad than good races, and not one for massive confidence, but the price is reasonable. Am hoping to see a bold bid from the front.

4.15 Newton Abbot Amanofhisword 11/2 ew

First time over fences... No good on his few hurdles runs.. They were on soft..... Ran okay in a good ground bumper.. Must be a chasing prospect... But mainly cos he's seen a lot of money

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

8.30 Wolves Seaforth 25/1 ew

Has a chance with a return to form. Has to put a few bad runs behind him, but can excuse a couple of those as he was drawn low, which was probably not ideal for one that needs holding up. Angus Villiers takes 5 off too.

Same race 8.30 Wolves

International Law 13/2 ew

A good price now, and can go well here.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

4.15 Newton Abbot Amanofhisword 11/2 ew

First time over fences... No good on his few hurdles runs.. They were on soft..... Ran okay in a good ground bumper.. Must be a chasing prospect... But mainly cos he's seen a lot of money

Rubbish.... Pulled up I think

6.30 Wolves

Grey Galleon 13/2 ew

03/04

Running P & L -34.1pts

Invested 18pts.

Returns:

8.30 International Law (done ew @ 13/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.3pts
4.52 Milrow (done ew @ 20/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 10p rule 4 returning 4.6pts

Invested 18pts - returns 6.9pts

Loss for the day 11.1pts

Running invested total - 1,734 pts

Total P & L -45.2pts

05/04

2.45 Plumpton Ballintara 20/1 ew

Skelton has the best priced 4/6 fav Aheadfullofdreams, but is definitely worth opposing imo. Regardless, I'm going ew here, and the selection is having his third chase start. Hoping this one can get a long overdue winner for Diana Grissell, who hasn't trained a winner in three years. The ground, and the track, as well as the trip should all be fine. In his hurdles' career he has often chased the leaders/been up with the pace; however, thus far in his two attempts over the larger obstacles, he has been held up out the back. Both were poor runs, and I'm thinking that now he has shown that he can jump them, perhaps he will race more forward. First time cheekpieces, plus the jockey Marc Goldstein being the top course jock of the 8 taking part adds some hope.

3.55 Mellow Ben 6/1 ew

Has a chance in an open race. Came placed here before a few times over this sort of trip on good ground at the course when hurdling. Chris Gordon been among the winners recently - 6 from his last 30 runners - , which is pretty good for a trainer who wouldn't be in the top bracket. Tom Cannon rides one in this for Alan King; so am unsure what to make of that.

5.25 Plumpton Clongowes 6/1 win

7th hurdles start tomorrow. Most of them were poor, apart from his last which was on good ground at the course. I think he'll appreciate ground conditions, and if he stays the extra half mile or so, he should go close. Not a great price, but not poor either. Might get another trainer off the cold list. That's if he goes to post, which aint too likely, considering he ran today.

3.40 Wolves Siavash 16/1 ew

Another thread 'standing dish'. I think he's a light under a bushel job, and usually hides out the back. Only 7 go to post here, and he has been dropping down the weights significantly since his win at the course in November. That was over much shorter, and it's very interesting that he's tackled the extended 9 fs here quite a few times with no success, but tackles 1m 4f tomorrow. Could be a Massive Plunge (I hope ) on the Evans' inmate.

Gluck

Fairyhouse

2.05 Jon Ess 16/1 ew

Third in this a couple of years ago.

5.00 Irish Grand National.

Discordantly 33/1 ew , Moyhenna 25/1 ew

My ew darts here. Discordantly is only 7, a course winner over hurdles, last run at Cheltenham was good. Appears ground versatile.

Moyhenna came third over a similar trip at Punchestown 2 runs back on soft. He was staying on over shorter on his latest race on better ground at Cheltenham. Appears to stay at least. Hugh Morgan gets the leg-up for the first time, and takes 5 off.

05/04

Running P & L -45.2pts

Invested 13pts. 5.25 Clongowes nr done win. 12pts in play.

Returns:

2.45 Ballintara (done ew @ 20/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 5pts
2.05 Jon Ess (done ew) places at 28/1 at a fifth the odds returning 6.6pts

Invested 12pts - returns 11.6pts

Loss for the day 0.4pts

Running invested total - 1,746 pts

Total P & L -45.6pts

8.00 Chelmsford Bayston Hill 4/1 win

Multiple C & D winner. Always goes well at the course over this distance in Class 5s and 6s. Is in a Class 5 today. Poor run lto though in a Class 4 over today's trip, but hopefully that was an aberration. Should be more at home back in a Class 5 and expect him to run a good race tonight.

Gluck

07/04

3.50 Catterick Donnelly's Rainbow 14/1 ew , The Big House 10/1 ew

Both have significant absences to overcome, but they both should like the ground, trip and course. Donnelly's Rainbow has ran well over C & D a couple of times without winning, and The Big House is a three times C & D winner.

An open race I think, and only 3 of the 9 have had a recent outing; with the other six all having absences of 100+ days to overcome. The 6/4 fav Alix James is one that has had a recent run, but I'm not too enthused about his chances, with his three wins (all over 7f) coming on the AW, good to soft, and soft going. The going is described as good to firm-good in places, and I hope it stays that way (even if it is April, and I saw what looked like hailstones at one o' the race meets today :P) . Rain rain stay away :pac:

Gluck

Last one for today...

8.30 Chelmsford

Something Lucky 8/1 win

Not getting any younger at nine, but he can go well in this Class 6 if he breaks well, and hopefully mow down the frontrunners late on. Has won off higher ratings than he's racing off tonight. Last win was less than a year ago, so not without a chance at a decent price.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

8.00 Chelmsford Bayston Hill 4/1 win

Multiple C & D winner. Always goes well at the course over this distance in Class 5s and 6s. Is in a Class 5 today. Poor run lto though in a Class 4 over today's trip, but hopefully that was an aberration. Should be more at home back in a Class 5 and expect him to run a good race tonight.

Gluck

Not to be - came 2nd

Was counting my money 1 1/2fs out, after the jockey kicked about 2 or so out, and it looked like he wasn't for catching. Fav was always travelling well out the back though, and he mowed selection down in shadow of post having come with a late run .. Ah well

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Last one for today...

8.30 Chelmsford

Something Lucky 8/1 win

Not getting any younger at nine, but he can go well in this Class 6 if he breaks well, and hopefully mow down the frontrunners late on. Has won off higher ratings than he's racing off tonight. Last win was less than a year ago, so not without a chance at a decent price.

Not good enough - came 4th