Racing Uncertainties

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

6.25 Wexford Crosshue Boy 12/1 ew

This 11yr old; who's been lightly raced in recent seasons has decent place claims here. Has good course form too, and if on song, is a definite stayer. The well backed jolly Ornua would have been worth a bet earlier, when he was a lot bigger than the best-priced 11/4 he's available at now. Perhaps not a guaranteed stayer, the fav, and probably best left alone imo. Also, the selection's trainer Sean Doyle has been among the winners recently.

Luck anyone who's following

Blundered, and unshipped jockey about 6 out..

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

6.25 Wexford Crosshue Boy 12/1 ew

This 11yr old; who's been lightly raced in recent seasons has decent place claims here. Has good course form too, and if on song, is a definite stayer. The well backed jolly Ornua would have been worth a bet earlier, when he was a lot bigger than the best-priced 11/4 he's available at now. Perhaps not a guaranteed stayer, the fav, and probably best left alone imo. Also, the selection's trainer Sean Doyle has been among the winners recently.

Luck anyone who's following

Deleted User wrote: »

Blundered, and unshipped jockey about 6 out..

Wrong again - twice in one post... Fav wins at 11/4

The Dazzler Darryl Holland has his first runner, I believe, in the next at Kempton. Lilkian, formerly trained by Shaun Keightley. Not a selection, but available at 7/2. Hope it wins.

09/04

Running P & L -52.4pts

Invested 6pts

Returns:

3.47 Scorpo (done ew @ 66/1) wins (WAHAAY!!) at a fifth the odds a place returning 81.2pts

Invested 6pts - returns 81.2pts

Profit for the day - 75.1pts

Running invested total - 1,785 pts

Total P & L +22.7pts

10/04

Wolverhampton

5.05 Blue Beret 8/1 ew
Has a chance in an open race. Is a decent price.

5.40 Seaforth 12/1 ew
Twice a C & D winner. Bit of a standing dish on the thread. Not a great price, but one I don't want to not back, and then see win. Not a great price - far from it, given his overall/recent profile - , but not exactly 'cramped odds' either, and it is an open looking race.

8.15 Burn Some Dust 7/1 ew
Only 2 places here, and a lot of imponderables regarding the chances of most of the 7 runners. I have a feeling the selection could 'potentially' be ahead of the handicapper, horse is a good/value price, Harry Russell takes off 5, horse has rarely ran on the AW, and the last time he tackled it (July 2018) he won easy enough over 1m 4f at Newcastle. Plenty to like. I think his chance here is just as good as those ahead of him in betting.

Gluck

Chepstow 12.30 Hedgebird 33/1 ew
2nd run. First was in a bumper. Ran a bit keen, and wasn't beaten far in 7th at Ludlow last Oct. If she travels better tomorrow; and takes to hurdling, she has solid place claims. One of two trainer Jeremy Groucott has in this.

1.00 Chepstow Danboru 12/1 ew

One of two trainer Tim Vaughan has in this race. Is the bigger priced of the two, and I'm not liking the other - Dadsintrouble, who's about 5/1, is eleven and having his 4th chase start; with the first three being fraught with errors. Danboru should like the good ground, and can be there or thereabouts in a race which shouldn't take much winning. Just the two places though, but another open race, and a nice price.

1.35 Chepstow Big Fiddle 20/1 ew

A bit of a punt this one, as form to date has been poor. Not a massive price for a punt, but it is her first run in a handicap, and I'm hoping the long layoff she's coming back from was for a good reason.

2.10 Chepstow Alfoski 25/1 ew

An open race, with the 5/2 favourite Poet's Reflection looking like the most likely winner on the back of her lto win at Taunton last month. Would probably have picked another selection, but the price wasn't great, so I left Miss Harriett (12/1) out.

Alfoski ran an okay race at Hereford lto for most of the race; which was over 2fs further, on proper good ground. That was his first run in a handicap, and the trainer goes big on the equipment, with the tonguestrap and blinkers being used for the first time. Price is good, and it may well shorten before the off.

3.20 Chepstow Ginistrelli 6/1 ew , Jersey Grey 10/1 ew

Two places here, and I think both these have claims. Think the 15/8 fav Bashful Boy may need further. Ginistrelli seems inconsistent, as he seems to win or come nowhere. He fell last time out in a grade higher race (Class 3 at Ludlow) , so maybe tomorrow he'll do better.

Jersey Grey is only 4, and his lto 4th at Taunton reads well here. Looks like it was a good race for the grade; where he finished just over 6 lengths behind Cooperess.

1.45 Aintree Reserve Tank 18/1 ew , Tea Clipper 11/2 ew , Kid Commando 20/1 ew , Tommy Rapper 28/1 ew , Southfield Harvest 15/2 ew

5 places on offer, and my 5 against the field. All have good chances. Two are single figures, and Tea Clipper is a lot shorter than I hoped, but these will do me anyhow.

4.15 Aintree Johnbb 11/1 ew

Bit of a punt, even though tis not a massive price. 3m. 1f. on good ground tomorrow. Been mainly running on soft, but has ran well the few times he's ran on good; or ground close to good. So, am hoping he's unexposed over this trip in the chasing discipline, and along with the trip, that the good ground should see him run well. Could well be the opposite though; with him maybe getting outpaced, but I'm counting on him at least going well for a long time in this.

1.15 Newcastle St Basil 100/1 ew , Franks Fancy 11/1 ew

The 5/4 fav Erne River will most likely win this, but Franks Fancy is pretty much guaranteed to at least place here imo.
The other pick is both a hunch, and a punt.

1.53 Newcastle Grand Coureur 15/2 ew

Am having great difficulty tryna see how this one will finish outside the places. The 10/11 jolly Diligent may well prove to be a gammy fav, so wouldn't be surprised to see the selection win.

2.33 Newcastle Lulu Baloo 11/1 ew

Cos I likee the name, and I can this daughter of Schiaperilli running a big race on her second handicap outing. Owned and bred by R W Metcalfe; I'm in little doubt that Andy Thornton will be 'really pleased' should mount of Tom Midgley, and in the care of Tim Easterby oblige. If she should oblige; it is, alas, unfortunate that we'll not be able to hear 'Fitzy' tell us how pleased he is; as he will most likely be in Liverpool waxing lyrical about 'young jockeys' , and how sad it is that some nonagenarian - who didn't quite make the ton - shuffled off this mortal coil (he might have different beliefs, as he may have seen some youtoob videos from truthtellers, but for t'sake off keeping his cushy gig; he'll pretend to give one).
So, it'll most likely Andrew Thornton gushing enthusiastically with his obvious upspeak, and pausing for effect that would make a local radio DJ think "maybe that could be ME on the telly... some....day... "

"Well done to all concerned.. Back to you in the studio ALix"

3.05 Newcastle Hidden Gem 33/1 ew , Mance Rayder 7/1 ew

A race in Newcastle with horses called Wye Aye, and one o' t' selections Mance Rayder in it; I can almost hear Thornton's lame puns already :pac:

I think Mance Rayder is a cert on form to make the frame, or perhaps even win, and I think he's WAAY overpriced, and should be jolly Alex. I think Wye, the 3/1 fav will be VERRY popular with punters Alex. I don't Andy. I can't see him win meself.. I think the trip will stretch him. I concur Andrew.

I like 'idden Gem Alex... I think he could go well on his second run for Mick (conspicuous pause for effect) (uptalk)SOWERS (normal)bee. He come a decent 2nd at the course last July Alex, over slightly shor (another pause) ter... when 'e were with the good doctor Richard (upspeak)New (normal voice) land. So, 'e's 'ad benefit of a recent run, and lukes be a lively outsider to me Alex.. Wahay!

You've been plum out of luck lately Mick.. Did you fancy this one today....?

^^^^^

Unlike Andy, I, "The Threadstarter" already like the "lively outsider" " 'idden Gem" (or Glen maybe ) at double carpet Thornton... I don't have 2 wait for 'im to be backed into 12s or 14s, and then pretend that I would've given im a 'big-up' ; had (or should that be 'ad Andrew) the price not contracted significantly....

#All bs aside, I see Fitzy get a lot of flak on this site; and rightly so p'raps; but, in my book Thornton's worse; but then he doesn't have the ITV gig... So, there's dat

5.15 Grand National

Talkischeap 33/1 ew

Will have a third dart here in the feature event. Like another pick Canelo, selection is trained by Alan King. Have also went for WP's 2nd fav Burrows Saint. I think he likes to be up with the pace, which is supposedly a good position in this race. He can race forwards on good ground, and he won a good race at Sandown a couple of years ago; when winning over 3 1/2, staying on well. That's good enough for me.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

2.33 Newcastle Lulu Baloo 11/1 ew

Cos I likee the name, and I can this daughter of Schiaperilli running a big race on her second handicap outing. Owned and bred by R W Metcalfe; I'm in little doubt that Andy Thornton will be 'really pleased' should mount of Tom Midgley, and in the care of Tim Easterby oblige. If she should oblige; it is, alas, unfortunate that we'll not be able to hear 'Fitzy' tell us how pleased he is; as he will most likely be in Liverpool waxing lyrical about 'young jockeys' , and how sad it is that some nonagenarian - who didn't quite make the ton - shuffled off this mortal coil (he might have different beliefs, as he may have seen some youtoob videos from truthtellers, but for t'sake off keeping his cushy gig; he'll pretend to give one).
So, it'll most likely Andrew Thornton gushing enthusiastically with his obvious upspeak, and pausing for effect that would make a local radio DJ think "maybe that could be ME on the telly... some....day... "

"Well done to all concerned.. Back to you in the studio ALix"

We'll, that's one on the board from about 12 of the picks that went to post so far.... Pity no sign of Andrew...

I'm pleased anyway :pac:

4.45 Newcastle Cilluirid 14/1 ew

Bit of a tentative selection. Is a fair price, and Tim's already 'ad a winna today. I don't know if he'll have much of a say, or if he'll like the good ground, but I suppose one could say that about the lot of them. Worse bets in this race I reckon, not least the jolly old jew.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

3.20 Chepstow Ginistrelli 6/1 ew , Jersey Grey 10/1 ew

Two places here, and I think both these have claims. Think the 15/8 fav Bashful Boy may need further. Ginistrelli seems inconsistent, as he seems to win or come nowhere. He fell last time out in a grade higher race (Class 3 at Ludlow) , so maybe tomorrow he'll do better.

Jersey Grey is only 4, and his lto 4th at Taunton reads well here. Looks like it was a good race for the grade; where he finished just over 6 lengths behind Cooperess.

:):):):)

$ Sing Sha la la la la la la....... I'm in love with a Jersey Grey $

EE...... That's two on t'board

3.40 Swaffham Bulbeck win

^^^^^^

Late selection that, so not counting for P & L... I'm in process of implementing rule - if it's less than 5 mins before off, they don't count.... It's merely for indecisive lurkers, if they want a last minute pick ... Always like to 'av 'em up at least 'alf an hour before the off, and no later than 10 mins if at all possible....

Leff

^^^

Had a good look at that race last night; and that one was the first one I tried to make a case for, but couldn't...Or any of t'rest of them. I think I heard that the ground was on the better side of good a while back on TV, so looked again about 5/6 mins before due off-time, and saw he had some form on good/good to firm, so decided to go with Swaffham... I don't intentionally put 'em up late...

There was a stewards regarding my selection - common sense prevailed and Swaffham Bulbeck will

NOT count

for P & L column :pac:

10/04

Running P & L +22.7pts

Invested 46pts + Burrows Saint GN (18/1 ew AP put up 06 Jan) + Canelo GN (NRNB ew put up Thursday) = 50pts. 3.20 Ginistrelli ew NR, 1.45 Southfield Harvest ew NR. 46pts in play.

Returns:

5.05 Blue Beret (done ew) places at 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
5.40 Seaforth (done ew @ 12/1) wins at a quarter the odds a place returning 17pts
1.00 Danboru (done ew @ 12/1) places at a quarter the odds with #an indiscernible rule 4 returning 3.7pts (3.75 actually for ref. , but I just use first number after the decimal point)
3.20 Jersey Grey (done ew) wins at 14/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 19.5pts
1.45 Tea Clipper (done ew) places at 8/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.6pts
4.15 Johnbb (done ew @ 11/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 5p rule 4 returning 3pts
2.33 Lulu Baloo (done ew) wins at 16/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 21.2pts
3.05 Mance Rayder (done ew @ 7/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 40p rule 4 returning 1.8pts
5.15 Burrows Saint (done ew @ 18/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 4.6pts

#calculated returns, and rule 4 appears to be 8.33pence? Was 7 horse race (discounting an earlier nr scratched before putting on bet - originally 8 declared ) and the 2nrs were priced at 9/2 and 15/2. Too confusing :mad:


Invested 46pts - returns 77.6pts

Profit for the day - 31.6pts

Running invested total - 1,831 pts

Total P & L +54.3pts

12/04

3.40 Windsor Heer We Go Again 28/1 ew

Goes here in a Class 3 over 6f. The 4yr old has won 5 times, with all those coming over 5f. Has never had much luck when he's tackled 6fs. Has been operating almost exclusively off marks in the 70s ever since he got a rating. Is rated 75 currently, and has won off that mark before. Normally goes in Class 4s and 5s, and doesn't try Class 3s very often. I'm thinking that Windsor is a fastish track, and it may suit those that can win, when staying on over 5; when upped to 6fs. Will be carrying a lowish weight, and has won on firm, and good to firm before. The going description which, alas, cannot always be depended upon, at the track currently, is good to firm - good in places.

He's well capable of leading, or racing just off the lead when going over 5. A lot of the time though, when racing at 6 furlongs, he takes the lead, and doesn't stay. I'm hoping he can race just off the pace, without hitting the front too early. Might have a bit to do strictly on weights and measures; but the good news is, that I'm not getting any negative vibes from Campo d'Evanso. At the prices, he'll do for me here.

Good luck

2.00 Huntingdon Loughan 4/1 win

This 6yr old is having his first go over fences. He's had 6 goes over hurdles without winning; however, myself and Dan consider him a long term chasing prospect, and we believe this is an eminently winnable race. This son of Yeats has ran before at Huntingdon, when he came third in a bumper. We're confident that he'll take to the fences, and be a big player here.

3.00 Huntingdon Grey Flint 14/1 ew

First run in a handicap. Trip is just shy of two miles, which looks as if it'll suit; if he decides to adopt a leading position early in race. I think the top two in the betting are beatable, and, while the form figures of the selection don't look too enticing, a case can be made if going on his first two runs (1st was in a bumper at Stratford on good, when he hit the front, but weakened late on. The next was at Newton Abbot; which was his first go over hurdles, and was on good to soft-good, when he looked booked for third until saddle slipped late on). Latest two runs were poor, but were on soft, so will draw a line through them. I'd like it if he was 20s, but the price taken may yet prove to be value.

4.10 Windsor Roman Mist 16/1 ew


Cos someone mentioned him on another thread, and they get a few winners..

Gluck

6.50 Wolves Lopes Dancer 5/1 win

Topweight in a handicap. Only 4 go to post. Could be a muddling race. No standout contenders. Was bigger earlier on, but just looked at the race there now. 5/1 a fair place, and hopefully can get a good run for our money.