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Racing Uncertainties
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Been a good few days for the thread recently. Turned around over a sixty point deficit into a close to 60pts profit; with about 70pts staked. Well happy with that. Have a few picked out for tomorrow, who'll hopefully keep the good run going
Will post em up later...
Am keeping the faith anyway.... Confidence is north of average atm :P0 -
13/04 Selections, as promised
Newton Abbot
3.30 Pollyamorous 50/1 ew
First run in a hurdles' handicap. Has had three goes over the sticks, and each appears to be better than the last (for all that the form is poor to moderate, but looks to be going in the right direction). A lower grade here, and am hoping the proper good ground can bring about further improvement. The sire Califet's progenies appear to act on top of the ground. May be a bit generously priced, owing to, perhaps, the mare's trainer Katherine Davis being a relative unknown in the training ranks. Caoilin Quinn good value for his 7lbs claim in this Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle. He's 5 from 35 this season.
Southwell
5.25 Chapati 14/1 ew , Galurin 12/1 ew
Chapati is a C & D winner from November. Trainer/Jockey combo of Coulson/Gregory in form.
Galurin also has the benefit of having an in-form trainer in Alistair Ralph, and Ciaran Gethings the jockey too. Galurin is having his 4th hurdles' run, and first in a handicap. Last time was his first run on good ground, where he was unruly before the start, ran keen, so a 30 length defeat probably nowhere near as bad as it looks all things considered. Not one for massive confidence, but can give him a sporting chance in this.
Newcastle
5.00 Joeljalu 16/1 ew
First run was in a bumper at the course, where he ran well for a long way. Had 3 runs on the flat proper since then; all of which were at about a mile. Those were all poor runs, but upped in distance to 1m. 4f. 98yds. should bring massive improvement I'd wager (which is exactly the point of this thread
). First run in Handicap, as well as first-time cheekpieces; and we're almost getting into handrubbing territory. Another who's not a mortgage job, but there be green shoots
6.00 Mikmak 15/2 ew
Drawn 8 of 10 here; which is the right side of the course to be on, in this, presumably 'straight' mile (most races over a mile here are on the straight - unless I'm mistaken). Has an absence to overcome, and is out of form; but his run over C & D last June reads well in the context of tomorrow's race (didn't have a great draw that day) , and he's been plummeting down the weights since. Going on form figures, the price is short, but at round about double figures I'm not too pushed about "value". Think he was about 10/1 when market opened up, but c'est la vie. I'm just a man, not a bot prowling markets for VALUE - a winner at 'crap value' still gets paid out on :cool: :P
8.00 Viva Voce 6/1 ew
Am hoping this 7fs on the Tapeta will suit. Another one who I wish was a bigger price. Connor Beasley gets the leg-up for the first time.
Gluck any who're following.. May fortune be still in ire favour
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Too much hassle to look at Fairyhouse, as it is for the majority of Irish meetings!
However, if I'm internet-side tomorrow, and someone/somewhere on this site puts one up, I might decide to stick it in this thread
I'm not averse to a bit of the auld 'plagiarism' (but I'll give credit where it's due) , as evidenced by that 22/1 placer from Windsor earlier....
As a wise man once said: "I get a lot of big ideas, and occasionally I actually come up with one myself." :pac:
Leff0 -
7.15 Fairyhouse
Decided to have a look at the bumper, and, as tricky as it is; it doesn't appear any harder to solve than any of the other 7 races before it.
The pen landed on two:
7.15 Mr Hailstone 20/1 ew
6/1 2nd fav in the probable SP. Owned and trained by S Donohue, he's had one run on the NH flat, when he came 5th on heavy at Navan. I'm hoping he'll like the good ground he faces later today.
7.15 Rathgearan 20/1 ew
One who's had two bumper tilts, with both on soft-heavy going. Also hoping he'll like this better ground. Of all the horses in this race that have had a run, those runs were mainly on ground with a lotta juice in it.
I was trying to find one at about 13/8 - 7/2 price-range on the card, so I could make a good case for it in the horsey forum; but drew a blank in that regard. Thinking was to try and get the ball rolling, and maybe some folk could throw out a decent priced one
Shudda looked at that race earlier, as I see that Rathgearan was a lot bigger earlier Might be a better price with other books. 0 -
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2.40 Ayr Coded Message 12/1 ew , Aurora Thunder 9/1 ew
A tricky enough race to solve this, and it looks as though the likely winner on form is Alan King's 7/4 fav Didonato. Global Harmony; who is 2nd best in the betting at 3s for Dan Skelton looks vulnerable here I think. Would like to see Coded Message take a lead in this; but, while there are no obvious frontrunners; apart from perhaps the selection herself, she may well have to go on. This might be no bad thing, as if she's the best on show here, like I believe she may well be, the rest might have a job passing her.
I think 3ms on good/goodish ground is her bag, and although she will have to win off a higher rating than she has done before, it's not an impossible task. Her two wins have come heavy and soft/heavy at two and three miles; but, as noted, I think 3 on decent ground will be fine. Her last race was interesting, from the pov that she tackled 2 1/2m, and tried to make all. It was a good enough run; where she led/lost the lead, and regained it during the course of the race; but was ultimately overhauled, though she was, however, staying on at the end.
For that run she was dropped 5lb, and it was a good race ran in a fast time; so, as far as recent form goes, that's one good piece, I feel.
Aurora Thunder is another interesting one at the prices here. I can definitely see her travelling well through the course of the race, but whether she'll be good enough, I'm not sure. If she's good enough she can get involved, but although she may appeal as a win only proposition; it is an open enough looking race, and, though I am wary of the King jolly, up to a point; in the races where Didonato won/ran well, the times were nothing spectacular, so I think both the picks have reasonable shouts.
Was looking at the telly yesterday morning, and saw that Harry was 3 ahead, and they were saying that he was 1/5 for the Jockeys' Championship, and Hughesie was 10/3. So, with about 10 or so days to go until the winner be crowned, I thought I might've got around 3/1 for Brian to win. Don't have multiple accounts, but I could find no price for the British NH Jockeys' Championship - not even on Oddschecker. I don't know where they were pulling them odds from, cos I couldn't see any. Anyway, a win for the champ yesterday reduces the deficit to two, and I hope he goes on to win it. I do hope he doesn't get a winner here, where he rides Lily's Gem for S Crawford :P
Gluck if yis are puntin 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »12.40 Thirsk Kolossus win 4/1
On account of there being a big plunge on him..
See there's a big plunge on a J Mullins horse in Bangor just now - Tommie Beau, into 12s from 66/1 earlier
I don't know who backed him , but it looks as though he got 4th = EW money landed... Noticed the market move about 20mins ago, but wouldn't have picked him at any price..... Wasn't gonna back him at 11 or 12 to one though 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »12.25 Bangor Casa Tall 5/1 ew
Only 4th chase start. Yet to win in Britain. Has some good hurdles' form (without winning) in higher grades than this over similar trips on good ground. No standout contenders in this, and this is one that could well see some support. Last run was an improvement (over 2m 1f - same trip as today) on his previous two chase outings; the first of which was on heavy, and the second was over a couple of f's further. Going to go into bullish mode and suggest that he could go off as short as 7/4; if connections/market etc feel that he'll jump and travel better, with those 3 runs over fences under his belt.
Good luck
Won nicely, and wasn't unsupported... Didn't go anywhere near 7/4 tho'... Good winner anyhowDeleted User wrote: »12.40 Thirsk Kolossus win 4/1
On account of there being a big plunge on him..
See there's a big plunge on a J Mullins horse in Bangor just now - Tommie Beau, into 12s from 66/1 earlier
Run for our money - 2nd is all tho
Looked like the winner in stages in the last 100yds or so... Winner always looked like prevailing in the last 20/30 yards.... Where it counts :pac: 0 -
Deleted User wrote: »12.55 Bangor Kala Noire 14/1 ew
First run in a chase, and it's in a Class 5 handicap. Will take on trust that this 7yr old; who's up at the top of the handicap, is capable of a clear round in this. Fairly priced for an ew poke, who is obviously unexposed in this discipline. Certainly one of the more interesting ones - not that I looked at many :P That's the benefits of finding a big/biggish priced ew selection - one doesn't need to look at all the contenders....
We all know in this game that there are more bad days than good... But, 'sometimes' I feel like the boy Marcus Aurelius.... I'll need to hire someone to whisper in my ear.... "You're just a man"
Was rubbin' me hands two out 0 -
Deleted User wrote: »Sat 17/04
4.20 Brighton Zulu Zander 6/1 win
Hoping this one can try and succeed to make all, and will hope he don't get much hassle for the lead (Really hope he leads)... A few in this who
like to/can lead as well. Selection is open to improvement, as he's only four.
7.00 Brighton Nozieres 13/2 win
Hoping the step up to a mile will suit.
Think these will do win only, as the first race is a sprint where it's really all about 'on the day', plus there's only two places. Second race, I feel if Nozieres takes to the mile she could win this 3yr old handicap, but if she don't; then she could finish nowhere. Nonetheless, they are both fair and decent prices.
Gluck
Best price 9/2 now... Books (from what I can see) split evenly between 7/2 , 4/1 , and 9/2, with one going 10/3...
Nozieres drifting... as well as the two picks in the Curragh race.. May not stop them... ~I reckon (hope anyway) one of them Curragh picks'll fill a top five spot.
A good day anyway regardless, but it'd be even better with another winner,, and 'Dave' has the powder down 0 -
I see "mayoman" over on his thread has had at least two big priced winners from recent selections... Folk would definitely be in profit following him on that thread lately...
If anyone's backing mine, I hope they're having their €1, or €2 , 50C, or whatever, EW or win on all the selections; and not just waiting for a 'purple patch' ... The more winners in a day = (usually) less winners impending..... That's the way I look at it anyway
Still think one of them Brighton picks will oblige
A winner there +/or a place at the Curragh would be gr8
Leff0 -
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^^^^
Yes indeed mate.. Happy for Rachael... We know she's a better jockey than 'Andy' (Townsend :P a lot of folk used to call him) , just he has more ammo.. Will make no diff to those o' us what can appreciate genius!
Gettin' Cabin Fever alright meself, with no place to go - no pub, bettin shop, football match - ; bloody nowt to do. The quicker ye olde bettin shops open, the better..
Hope you're right about May.... Early in the month as possible....
You're due a few winning 'pots' I reckon - some man to study ya is with very little buzz factor coming to race 6....
"We're all in this together" :rolleyes: Well, apart from those who aint :cool: Reckon the Kildare Street crew and de Montrose Posse is still 'larging it up' with houseparties, and whatnot..... But, as far as the rest of us plebs.... "Suck it up"
Am ready to go postal myself.. First horse that looks like winning when the shop opens; I probably be screaming at the telly Even louder if I backs it... Mebbe I'll go further afield when they open - just so I can 'adjust' .. Hopefully they get rid of the 'tea and bikkies' ; at least for a whoile.... Might keep the 'unsavoury' types out...
Fair play to Ms Blackmore... My heart sunk a bit when they (some Sky Sports bird I never saw before) wore her down with the "Great for Women spiel" , and she wasn't having much to do with her bs; but she almost had to concede that at least women are on a level playing field when it comes to racing..... Unlike in other aspects of life/occupations etc....:rolleyes: the 'Gender Pay Gap' they rarely shut up about; unless they're on about Racism or 'hate speech' ... Gaslighting goodo while folk have nothing else to do but watch t'gogglebox..... Not fooling me wit dere bs :mad: Strange how there's at least 57 (nice number that - a 'Heinz') genders; unless it's the mythical pay gap they're on about...
Gluck with your future pots pottokblue.. May ya get a few in...... May .,. haha
In other news - been a great day for t'thread.... One more to go.. Am not getting overly enthused about Nozieres chances for Tony and young William in 7 o'clock... but remain upbeat nonetheless:):):):) 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »3.35 Ayr Coral Scottish Grand National
Some Chaos 25/1 ew , The Ferry Master 16/1 ew , Cool Mix 33/1 ew
Had a look at this race, but didn't look at any of the shorties (which isn't to say that those priced between 8 & 10 to 1 are short) , as I was trying to find one at a price.
All 3 of the picks seem to stay 3m/3m. 2f. well on good ground, and they don't really have any form - good or bad - beyond that; so they'll do for me.
Gluck
2 places - 4th and 5th.. not too shabby 0
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