Racing Uncertainties

18/04

Running P & L +58.3pts

Invested 6pts

Returns:

3.35 The Ferry Master (done ew) places at 20/1 at a fifth the odds returning 5pts
3.35 Cool Mix (done ew @ 33/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 7.6pts

Invested 6pts - returns 12.6pts

Profit for the day - 6.6pts

Running invested total - 1,888 pts

Total P & L +64.9pts

19/04

5.30 Market Rasen L'es Fremantle 100/1 ew

A race full of donkeys, and this one probably has the worst form of all. Has ran 71 times, with just the one win. On the positive side, he has come placed 3 times, and has the one win from 24 chase outings (never won or came placed on the flat, or over hurdles). All of those place and win efforts did come at Market Rasen though.

Harry Kimber is on top for the first time, and takes 7lbs off the joint bottomweight to ease the burden. Been a year since Harry had a winner, about 2 1/2yrs since the trainer has had a winner; which was when the selection had his sole victory in Nov 2018.

Nothing on form to recommend this one at all - it's purely speculative; but I can't even make a decent case for any of the rest of the contenders to come as much as place.

Will do for me since I've been having a bit of luck lately, and while it's still in, then I'll take a punt on this lad.

Gluck

^^^^^

No good - finished 9th

19/04

Running P & L +64.9pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 1,890 pts

Total P & L +62.9pts

20/04

1.20 Yarmouth Roca Magica 6/1 win
C & D winner.

5.20 Wolves Manumission 4/1 win
Still a colt. Has a chance if the first-time cheekpieces can get him to focus.

Prices no value at all imo... Never was a 'value' thread, but I'd like them to be bigger. So going win only, as both appear to have winning chances; but the place part represents atrocious value.

Why am I posting them then.. To keep the thread ticking over, and they're far from odds-on pokes. Not liking the racing lately, with the flat just starting, and a lot of the NH being on good/good to firm, but I look at a few to keep 'my eye in' , lest I lose my sharpness :pac:

Gluck

20/04

Running P & L +62.9pts

Invested 2pts

Returns - none

Invested 2pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 2pts

Running invested total - 1,892 pts

Total P & L +60.9pts

21/04

3 picks in this.

6.00 Taunton Johni Boxit 22/1 ew

Put him up the last time he ran over over the sticks; which was 2 runs back (was out at Yarmouth on the flat today.... Don't even know if he'll line up tomorrow). He was well backed from about 20s into single figures on the day of that Taunton run. Drifted back out to 20s, and was running a good race until the saddle slipped. Had to be pulled up then. Will do for me.

Also in the same race will do Mi Laddo 9/2 win

A C & D winner lto... Is a decent price, and the one to beat here methinks. A replication of his run here 2 weeks ago should see him bang there.

A few more with chances, but one who's at a decent price tempts me to go for a third pick in this. Sad Eyed Dylan 20/1 ew.

Had a couple of decent runs last backend on proper good ground. Those were over 2 miles in Class 4s at Huntingdon, when he tried to make all. He came 2nd both times. Has been plummeting down the weights since, mainly (I hope) due to either running over further, or softer, or both. Could be well in here.

4.10 Perth Pammi 11/1 ew

C & D winner. Has ran 4 times at the course, and all of them over the 2 1/2m trip, and of the three she didn't win; she wasn't far away. Might want it a bit softer, but is a decent price for a place-making run, at the very least.

6.10 Lingfield Knockout Blow 10/1 ew , Terri Rules 20/1 ew

Both have won over shorter, but never at this 7f trip. Both have been staying on over 6, and Knockout Blow has won over 6 at the course; and while Terri Rules has only ever won over 5f, she has never attempted the 7f trip before, so, on that basis, may be a tad unexposed.

21/04

Running P & L +60.9pts

Invested 11pts. 4.10 Pammi ew Nr. 9pts in play.

Returns:

6.10 Knockout Blow (done ew) places at 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts

Invested 9pts - returns 3pts

Loss for the day 6pts

Running invested total - 1,901 pts

Total P & L +54.9pts

22/04

Tomorrow's darts

1.50 Perth Largy Mouth 18/1 ew

5.10 Perth Leeswood Lily 7/1 ew

8.15 Chelmsford Blame Culture 6/1 ew

Gluck

6.55 Exeter

Singapore Saga 10/3 ew
Her lto run over C & D was pretty good, and a replication would see her go close.

Master Tradesman 16/1 ew
Combination of Class 5, trip, and good ground gives him claims here. Probably needs to lead. A place will do.

Good luck

3.05 Warwick Nordano 16/1 ew

Taking a chance he'll like the combination of the ground and trip. Won over hurdles as a juvenile on good over 2m. Has been running mainly on soft since. A tricky race, with just the 6 going to post, and three likely frontrunners; with the selection being one of them. I'd give the outsider a chance here in a race that looks hard to solve.

Friday 23 April

1.40 Doncaster Tanasoq 9/2 ew

Ex Midgley inmate - now with Goldie. Midgley has one in it hisself. Not liking jolly Autumn Flight here; who won his last two on the AW, but I think he prefers softer on turf than what he'll face here. Be liking him for a place-lay... currently around 11/10 is Cowell's fav. A while since the selection has won, but he's dropping down the weights, and likes good to firm.

3.25 Sashenka 5/1 ew

A nice price. A hopeful pick here.

4.30 Astrogem 12/1 ew , Lucky Louie 7/1 ew , Rum Runner 16/1 ew

My three against the field in a tricky race, where many are returning from significant absences. Lucky Louie I'd like to be bigger, but he's picked, and that's it.


2.40 Perth

Alminar 9/1 ew , Bafana Blue 14/1 ew , Mance Rayder 16/1 ew

Think all these three will stay this marathon trip, and will like the good ground.

3.15 Gunsight Ridge 11/4 win , Kakamora 15/8 win

Think one of these will win.

8.05 Chepstow Cydercourt 100/1 ew

Speculative one here. Good jockey for this sort of race.

Gud luk

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Friday 23 April

1.40 Doncaster Tanasoq 9/2 ew

Ex Midgley inmate - now with Goldie. Midgley has one in it hisself. Not liking jolly Autumn Flight here; who won his last two on the AW, but I think he prefers softer on turf than what he'll face here. Be liking him for a place-lay... currently around 11/10 is Cowell's fav. A while since the selection has won, but he's dropping down the weights, and likes good to firm.

3.25 Sashenka 5/1 ew

A nice price. A hopeful pick here.

4.30 Astrogem 12/1 ew , Lucky Louie 7/1 ew , Rum Runner 16/1 ew

My three against the field in a tricky race, where many are returning from significant absences. Lucky Louie I'd like to be bigger, but he's picked, and that's it.


2.40 Perth

Alminar 9/1 ew , Bafana Blue 14/1 ew , Mance Rayder 16/1 ew

Think all these three will stay this marathon trip, and will like the good ground.

3.15 Gunsight Ridge 11/4 win , Kakamora 15/8 win

Think one of these will win.

8.05 Chepstow Cydercourt 100/1 ew

Speculative one here. Good jockey for this sort of race.

Gud luk

Have to be up/online early - soon as is priced up..

Tanasoq was 6s early doors, and Canimar 12s....

Although Sashenka was waay smaller at 9/2 , and Mance was a couple points shorter too :P

Still, I'd rather have gotten bigger on the two that shortened, and been happy enuf with the 9/2 and 14s on t'other two named..

22/04

Running P & L +54.9pts

Invested 12pts

Returns:

5.10 Leeswood Lily (done ew at 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
*6.55 Singapore Saga (done ew at 10/3) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 5.6pts
*6.55 Master Tradesman (done ew at 16/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 3.8pts

*A rule 4 there that I couldn't fathom

Invested 12pts - returns 11.8pts

Loss for the day 0.2pts

Running invested total - 1,913 pts

Total P & L +54.7pts

^^^

That 6.55 race was a 1/4 3 places, until the non-runner(s) - 11 runners then, and it became a fifth the odds a place. Couldn't work out rule 4.. Seemed to be about 8p for the winner, and 12.5p or summit for the placer... :mad:

Anyway, them was the returns what I posted above.

MyStubbleItches

[Deleted User] wrote: »

^^^

That 6.55 race was a 1/4 3 places, until the non-runner(s) - 11 runners then, and it became a fifth the odds a place. Couldn't work out rule 4.. Seemed to be about 8p for the winner, and 12.5p or summit for the placer... :mad:

Anyway, them was the returns what I posted above.

Do you speak in the same manner or do you just think you’re funny typing those words?

6.05 Chepstow

A rather interesting race; from a punter's perspective, this may well turn out to be, I do stoutly prognosticate. Firstly, I do believe that the short-priced favourite Arthur's Reuben may toil on this summer ground.

Will pick three here, and I think I've got the three bases covered, as 1 is a very good price, and may be unexposed. Another has solid credentials on the formbook, and; tertiarily, t'other is a not too speculative a 'punt' , I daresay.

To start with,

Freedelivery 28/1 ew
Myself and Tim (Vaughan) think that this son of Sholokhov may have been overlooked in tissue, as he's only 7, is the topweight, has only 1 chase run (where he finished pulled up) , but, at the same time Tim didn't really tell me anything to believe that today can be the day. However; if I know nothing else about the Bridgend handler, I should surmise that he does indeed know the time of day. In his nascent, and p'rhaps concluded career over the sticks, from distances of about 2m to 2 1/2m, Freedelivery were mainly tackling soft underfoot conditions. Didn't do much in that spear, but he did come 2nd in one of his PtPs on good. Now, Tim didn't mention to me whether he'd like good-good to firm going, going chasing under rules, but he didn't say otherwise to me neither. Irregardless, tis the price this beast is available to back at, that sways me towards having a little tickle.

Monty Massini 7/2 ew
One that I really like here on the formbook, and a jockey in Lewis Stones, who me and Fitzy are a fan of. The 10yr old gelding ran a career best, when coming second lto. His owner Mrs S M Farr was; at least once, if not more than once, seen pictured with a chronological device on her wrist, I believe; and allied to the fact that she is now having her steed under the care of a third trainer, it is not too much for this punter to postulate that she, Mrs S M Farr, the owner of the selection, does also; like the trainer Mr Tim Vaughan mentioned above, assuredly know the time of day. A bit to take on trust, as there's no guarantee he'll replicate or improve on his last time out outing. The trainer also has the 13/2 shot Isla Di Milano in this, so tread carefully when walking on marshes or wetlands is the advice given to those who would be wary in this sort of situation; who may feel it judicious to see which way the coin goes on Johnny Flint's duo. For all that, I am happy with his price, and the son of Doctor Massini shall carry some o' me spons.

Poetic Presence 100/1 ew
I have a feeling this mare may well outrun her odds, and I expect her to finish closer to first than last in this Class 5.

I think the 9/2 shot Shattered Glass may well see some support, and Karl Burke's 14/1 shot Golden Poet may well contract significantly in price, by agency of opposition to the short-priced jolly. Neither of those two horses are for me though; although it's likely at least one of them will be in the first 4, which don't interest me on account of there being only 3 places, and 9/2 isn't enough to sway me towards Shattered Glass; which looks the more likely of the two mentioned to get involved here....

I may even watch this event myself, if only to see how right I hope I will be :P

4.05 Worcester Sea Destination 100/1 ew , Dun Bay Creek 66/1 ew

^^^^

Not one o' them fekkers on ATR would have the perspicacity, discernment, audaciousness, or imagination to even begin to think of putting one of them above two up. Not me, I paddles me own canoe in the watery punting provinces. That is why I believe I will pick a 100/1 winner on this thread if not today, or tomorrow, or soon; but before I calls a halt to proceedings.......

6.45 Worcester ... 5 places and 4 picks 'ere. Three Colours Red 33/1 ew , Presentedwithwings 28/1 ew , Frankincense 8/1 ew , Montanna 12/1 ew
one of them might win.

Saturday 24 April

De ew Darts

12.30 Leicester Siavash 9/1
1.35 Leicester Heer We Go Again 20/1
3.20 Leicester Jeanette May 6/1
5.40 Haydock Camachess 8/1

6.45 Wol Mabre 9/1 ew

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Saturday 24 April

De ew Darts

12.30 Leicester Siavash 9/1
1.35 Leicester Heer We Go Again 20/1
3.20 Leicester Jeanette May 6/1
5.40 Haydock Camachess 8/1

A good day.. Those two won...

Pretty sure yesterday was a fairly profitable day as well. Awkward as fook __ pardonnez mes Francais :pac: rules may have been in effect for de deducksheownzz :mad:

Will tally up - when I get around to it for da 2dayz homeez

Shout out to the 'real ones' who done been here from the start... Aint got nothin' but love for yis all (right fist taps chest D:D:D:p:p )

Holler back at y'alls later - whenever the mood takes me, that is

Oh revwor for t'nonce :cool:

23/04

Running P & L +54.7pts

Invested 38pts. 3.15 Gunsight Ridge nr win. 37pts in play.

Returns:

4.30 Astrogem (done ew @ 12/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 16.4pts
4.30 Lucky Louie (done ew @ 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
4.30 Rum Runner (done ew @ 16/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
#2.40 Bafana Blue (done ew) places @ 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
#2.40 Mance Rayder (done ew @ 16/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 20p rule 4 returning 3.5pts
3.15 Kakamora (done win @ 15/8) wins with a 25p rule 4 returning 2.4pts
6.45 Presentedwithwings (done ew) places @ 40/1 at a fifth the odds returning 9pts
6.45 Montanna (done ew) places @ 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts

# 2.40 2 ew shots returned placed in that race. One was subject to a rule 4, and the other wasn't. Bafana Blue finished at bigger odds than price taken, and vice versa with Mance Rayder. I guess that's why one had a rule 4 imposed, and why the other didn't.

Invested 37 pts - returns 46.3pts

Profit for the day 9.3pts

Running invested total - 1,950 pts

Total P & L +64pts

24/04

Running P & L +64pts

Invested 10pts

Returns:

3.20 Jeanette May (done ew @ 6/1) wins with a fifth the odds a place returning 9.2pts
5.40 Camachess (done ew @ 8/1) wins with a fifth the odds a place returning 11.6pts

Invested 10pts - returns 20.8pts

Profit for the day 10.8pts

Running invested total - 1,960 pts

Total P & L +74.8pts

4.10 Wetherby Many A Star 5/2 win , Abate 9/2 ew NAP, Bossipop 11/1 ew

Didn't know there was flat racing at this course. Must not have noticed it before. Of the 10 going to post, there is only 1 that has ran here before; so, I presume that flat racing at Wetherby is an unusual enough occurrence.

I think Many A Star is the best horse in this race. He's won before after an absence, and is having his first run for Brian Meehan. A short price, but there could be some juice in it.

If Abate runs his race, he will go very very close. Has had the benefit of a recent run too.

I'm happy enough having three picks here, and would be worried about Look Out Louis if he had a recent run, as I don't think he goes well after an absence. Roundhay Park is another who could go well, as the distance should suit. He has won after an absence before, but probably wants it softer at this level. But I'm mainly dismissing him cos Faye McManoman's on top, and I don't rate her at all.

That's why I've gone for three here, as two in the top half of the betting can be opposed with reasonable confidence, and I don't think the others have the form. Only my opinion, but that's what punting is all about. My third pick Bossipop is mainly cos I always back him, plus he's ground/trip versatile. He is drawn widest of all in ten, so am not sure if that's a good thing. He also tends to lead, so, I reckon that's what he'll do here. It's an unusual distance this race (5f. 110yds. , which is 5 1/2f) , so maybe he won't try to lead, like he normally does when racing over 6. Anyway, he's a decent and a value price, so will do me here.

3.40 Wetherby Proud Archi 11/1 ew

Can go well after an absence. Is ground versatile, and he's a multiple distance winner. A tentative enough pick, but the price is reasonable, and can't be ruled out in a race where he's the only 1 I looked at

Non edit EDIT - I looked at a few more, and none stand out, not even the 5/4 jolly Al Tarmaah.

Seems I'm not the only one to like the pick in this - was 14's earlier.

Gluck all

2.20 Navan Blue Wood 7/1 ew , Lapilli 28/1 ew

Blue Wood is having his 2nd stint with the Feane Stable. Has had 8 runs, and lto he ran pretty well at Dundalk; when staying on over 5. I think that that run was an improvement on his previous 7, and the extra 164yds here should help too.

Lapilli is a speculative pick in an open race, with 5 places on offer.