Racing Uncertainties

Think I'll leave it at that for Lingfield save for one more in that same 1.00 race. Going is soft, but could well be good come racetime :rolleyes:

Might wait until racing starts before I look at the rest of them races, but there's 12 runners in the first race, and a lot of these don't have a lot of racing on turf / soft / this sort of trip.

On account of that I think I'll do another in this that does have form at this sort of trip on soft going. Price is decent, and DAS KAPITAL 11/1 ew has ran well before after an absence (first run since 29th Jan), and he won easily over a mile and a half at Chepstow on soft last August. Will hope the going stays soft, as it is currently stated as being. The jockey and trainer John Berry and Thore Hammer Hansen had a winner yesterday (Wednesday) , so the stable's in form - I hope

6.10 Chelmsford Casina di Notte 20/1 ew NAP

Not expecting this one to win necessarily, but am hopeful and confident of a place anyway in this Class 5 1m Handicap. At 20/1 he's twice the price I'd be happy to back him at. Has won twice in his career, with both those wins coming over a mile at Yarmouth. He has ran 5 times over C & D without winning, but has a couple of decent placed efforts over track and trip. The young jockey Ellie Norris was on the horse when he finished 2nd here in January. She claims 7 and has only had 4 rides thus far, so the jockey looks as though she's open to improvement.. haha

The horse has been slowly away as of late, and is racing on the back of a +100 days absence; but he's been dropping down the weights, and is up into a Class 5; having raced the last twice over C & D in a Class 6, so will have less weight on his back than recent outings, which should help a bit. He's ran well before after an absence, when coming 2nd at Southwell last January, which was his first run in 8 months. The breaking slow bit is a worry, but hopefully he'll be freshened up, and raring to go, having been away from the track for 105 days.

Good luck

7.40 Chelmsford Clipsham Tiger 18/1 ew

A speculative one in a race where none of the top three in the betting have outstanding claims. I think the 3/1 shot Captain St Lucifer is the most likely of the trio to trouble the judge, and it's hard to see him outside the top three here. If he were 4/6 or bigger, I'd rate him a solid 3-place bet for short price takers. Seeing as it's 13/8 , 11/4 , 3/1 and 10s bar; I doubt he'll be a decent place price, unless a few others see some money, and he doesn't

A 'standing thread dish' Essgee Nics also takes part, but I've given up on him after several poor showings over quite a few attempts over C & D in recent times.

Anyway, onto the selection Clipsham Tiger. He's only raced once north of a mile, and that was lto at Lingfield over 10fs on soft. That was a poor run, and his third since his comeback; which saw him finish second last of 13. He was off for over a year before he had his comeback run in April over 7 at Wolves, where he finished fifth of seven. The next saw him finish last of 11 over a mile at Ponty.

He has winning form at the course, with the first of his three wins coming over a mile there in October 2019. He subsequently won his next two races, and those were at Southwell over a mile. Been very poor since then, but it's interesting that his trainer tries him again at a mile two, and he's only 5, so too early to write him off completely. A bit of a punt, and a run for me money might be the best I can hope for on the formbook, but it wouldn't be the first time that a totally out of form horse has seen that formbook thrown out . Mick Appleby has had almost as many winners (4) as the rest of the trainers (5) put together in this 8 runner affair, from the last 21 days; so there is that.

6.55 Sandown Nando Parrado 13/2 win

About the only one that has form on soft. Came a good 2nd at Longchamp last October in a fast time over 7. Everything else is speculation; particularly as he didn't appear to stay 7fs on good ground at Newbury lto. That may well be because it was his first run since that Longchamp 2nd; a run in which I can't make out how he ran, as I can't find a few written lines that would suggest if he was staying on, or fading etc.. Hard to find decent form generally on any horserace outside of Britain and Ireland.

There's also horses with very good form in the race, and no doubt many of them will act on soft. Nonetheless, the selection has seen some money (which made me take a look at him :pac:) , is a decent price, proven on soft, and I will take on trust his ability to handle a mile on soft.

If I had a free bet on the race, I'd probably go with Mithras @ 4/1, but with lack of soft ground form, it's hard to be confident about anything in this, I feel.

1.20 Wolves Cap D'antibes 5/2 win

Is a fair price now, having drifted from 6/4 or so. Could well be as big as 7/2 or 4s with many o' the books, but am happy enuf with the 5/2. The selection is having his third run since coming over from Ireland. He won at Chelmsford lto over a mile, hitting the line hard. His first run in England was at the course after over a 6 month absence, and about a furlong longer tripwise than what he faces today. He came third then, and was only beat 1/2 a length. Seems to act on the Tapeta, and I think he'll go close here.

Another 'standing dish' in the same race, in the form of Zafaranah also takes her chances in this 1m 142yds Class 6 Handicap. Has seen massive support having her 2nd run for Stephen Hanlon, but I'm hoping she won't stay. He appears to be able to get a tune out of this mare based on her decent third, when first time out for the trainer last month over 7 at the course. She's drawn wide too, so if she wants to lie up with the pace, it may, I hope, be a bridge too far. That's the hope anyway regarding the first ever thread pick who only managed a poor 6th on that occasion. I reckon Mr Hanlon may well prove to be a better trainer than Mrs Barclay, and his mare is plummeting down the weights, but I think 7/2 is too short.

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7.40 Chelmsford Clipsham Tiger 18/1 ew

A speculative one in a race where none of the top three in the betting have outstanding claims. I think the 3/1 shot Captain St Lucifer is the most likely of the trio to trouble the judge, and it's hard to see him outside the top three here. If he were 4/6 or bigger, I'd rate him a solid 3-place bet for short price takers. Seeing as it's 13/8 , 11/4 , 3/1 and 10s bar; I doubt he'll be a decent place price, unless a few others see some money, and he doesn't

A 'standing thread dish' Essgee Nics also takes part, but I've given up on him after several poor showings over quite a few attempts over C & D in recent times.

Anyway, onto the selection Clipsham Tiger. He's only raced once north of a mile, and that was lto at Lingfield over 10fs on soft. That was a poor run, and his third since his comeback; which saw him finish second last of 13. He was off for over a year before he had his comeback run in April over 7 at Wolves, where he finished fifth of seven. The next saw him finish last of 11 over a mile at Ponty.

He has winning form at the course, with the first of his three wins coming over a mile there in October 2019. He subsequently won his next two races, and those were at Southwell over a mile. Been very poor since then, but it's interesting that his trainer tries him again at a mile two, and he's only 5, so too early to write him off completely. A bit of a punt, and a run for me money might be the best I can hope for on the formbook, but it wouldn't be the first time that a totally out of form horse has seen that formbook thrown out . Mick Appleby has had almost as many winners (4) as the rest of the trainers (5) put together in this 8 runner affair, from the last 21 days; so there is that.

Out to 4/1 now and 4/6 3 places, so took that..

2.45 Lingfield Arthalot 18/1 ew

Open race... Could figure or come nowhere.. Nice price... Has some reasonable form on soft at Bath.. Out of form recently like a lot of these...
Think the fav Evaporist has a lot of weight to carry, and may not last if he tries to make all... The trainer of the seletion is in form too...

2.55 MR Sarasota Star 8/1 ew

Good chance if he stays... Upped in trip.... 2m 4f today on good ground.. Has won over 2m 1f and was staying on last October at Carlisle on good ground.. Strong claims here

3.05 Wolves Golden Love 16/1 ew

Could go well fresh... Drifted to a respectable price.... hopeful of a runfer at least...

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3.05 Wolves Golden Love 16/1 ew

Could go well fresh... Drifted to a respectable price.... hopeful of a runfer at least...

Shortened actually Still a good price tho

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3.05 Wolves Golden Love 16/1 ew

Could go well fresh... Drifted to a respectable price.... hopeful of a runfer at least...

Deleted User wrote: »

Shortened actually Still a good price tho

No good.... Harley didn't try too hard to land the ew spoils :rolleyes:

4.00 Market Rasen Bafana Blue 4/1 win

Has given a few good accounts recently... Is versatile regarding trip and ground, so whatever conditions are; they should be okay... Ground no longer good... Wanted to back Lord Getaway, but price gone way too short.. Hope the selection don't try make all, as he'll likely be nabbed.... Only 7 in this, so he may go from the front... 4/1 far from massive, but I'll hope for a good run at least..

20/05

Running P & L -6.2pts

Invested 19pts

Returns:

1.00 Das Kapital (done ew @ 11/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 25p rule 4 returning 2.6pts
7.40 Clipsham Tiger (done ew @ 18/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 4.6pts
2.45 Arthalot (done ew @ 18/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 23.6pts

Invested 19pts - returns 30.8pts

Profit for the day 11.8pts

Running invested total - 2,117 pts

Total P & L +5.6pts

1.00 Haydock Firewater 7/1 ew

Is a fair price... An open race, where one of Loughnane's (Kaser) is short enough at 5/1. Would have been interested in him, but not at that price, as he doesn't appear the most reliable type. The selection, trained by Fahey has good form on soft, likes the 10f trip, and ran well before over C & D finishing 2nd... Has never won a Class 4 before, and has an absence to contend with, but will do me here at a good price.

3.35 Bath Fight For It 9/2 win

Came 4th over the same trip as today's 10f race at Leicester last month. That was on good to firm. Going today is good (good to soft in places). I'm hoping he'll improve from his first run, and that he'll appreciate the ease in going. He was 6/4 fav earlier on, and is now a pretty tasty price. The 2/1 fav Moment Of Beauty for Godolphin was beaten about 10 lengths on his first run, so hard for a Joe Soap punter to make a case for him. The 9/4 2nd fav has seen massive support, with Roger Varian's Mushirif into 9/4 from 8/1. He's had two runs so far, and there's not much to be said about them really; with him having been beat about 10 lengths on both occasions. I don't see why the selection can't go close here. Good value for the win part anyway, so win only on him, as I don't know why he's drifting like he is, but just looks a bit big pricewise.

2.50 Goodwood Gordonstoun 11/2 ew , Toronado Grey 14/1 ew

Gordonstoun will definitely appreciate the soft going, having won his 2nd and 3rd last races over the slightly extended mile; with both of those at Nottingham in a Class 5, and both on soft. He didn't fare so well at the same course lto over 10f, but that was on good to firm. It was a Class 4, which is what he tackles today, and he came 4th, so I think today's conditions should be ideal.

Toronado Grey won well lto when winning over a mile at Lingfield on the Standard to Slow going. That was his fourth run and a significant improvement on his previous three; having won that race by 3 lengths. It was also his third run in a row on the AW. He ran once on turf, which was his first ever run, and that was at Goodwood on heavy going; where he finished last. Will draw a line through that, and hope that he acts on today's conditions. He's a very nice price, and I can't see any obvious contenders to win this race, so the two picks will do me. Onaraggatip has been well supported, but unless the trainer has seen some improvement in him; his claims are less than obvious. Maybe do a cheeky r/f/c on the two picks as well.

1.40 Goodwood Cold Stare 7/2 ew

Should go close. Not liking the 5/4 fav Dulas. Only 2 places, but I think O'Meara's horse can go real close here.

4.45 Bath Iconic Knight 8/1 ew

Because he's the one in this who is least likely to not be involved. 2 places up for grabs with all the abdications. Number one spot not a forlorn hope. Don't like the fav The Daley Express. Tony Carroll's in form too.

Gluck

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4.45 Bath Iconic Knight 8/1 ew

Because he's the one in this who is least likely to not be involved. 2 places up for grabs with all the abdications. Number one spot not a forlorn hope. Don't like the fav The Daley Express. Tony Carroll's in form too.

Gluck

No good..... 3rd

21/05

Running P & L +5.6pts

Invested 11pts

Returns:

1.00 Firewater (done ew) places @ 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts

Invested 11pts - returns 3pts

Loss for the day 8pts

Running invested total - 2,128 pts

Total P & L -2.4pts

2.55 Nottingham Bannergirl 22/1 ew

Her return to action at Bath earlier in the month was decent. She tackled 1m 2f and weakened late on finishing fourth. Assuming she improves for that run, a case can be made for her here over a mile on soft based on a couple of her runs last October. Those were over 6f and 7f, and on Heavy (soft in places) , and on Heavy. She never looked like winning either of those; which were Class 5s, but she was staying on at the end, and perhaps the mile today on soft should suit, as well as being down in a Class 6. I would have her as a 14s shot, but because of training connections (Mark Gillard not being very prolific on the flat) , she's probably a tad underrated. A hopeful pick here.

4.20 Curragh Sirjack Thomas 22/1 ew

Good course form. A good third over C & D 2 runs back. Lto was on good to firm at Cork, so can draw a line through that. Is tactically versatile, dropping down the weights, goes well at the course, and likes cut in the ground. Might be bigger with many books, but going for 5 places a fifth.

5.30 Curragh Coltor 7/2 , Ilmig 9/1... EW them both.

Two here that a good case can be made for. I think a line can be drawn through most of these. Coltor has never been over further than 11f on the flat, but has some good form over 2m on soft ground when sent hurdling; and, for me, is a worthy fav.

Ilmig has gone out to a juicy price, and is one who also has good hurdles' form over 2m on soft. He's only ever been as far as 1m 4f on the flat, but I think that makes no difference, as he's proven he can stay 1.5m well on soft, and like the other pick, he appears to be an unexposed 4yr old. Wouldn't be surprised if the two of them fill the top two spots. On the debit side regards Ilmig, he didn't put in a great showing lto at Roscommon; albeit it was over a mile and a half, but I'll put that down to the better yielding ground.

Gluck

3.05 Lough Salt 33/1 ew

A late one, so not for P & L. Has a chance if not affected by absence.

23/05

Running P & L -2.4pts

Invested 8pts

Returns - none

Invested 8pts - returns 0pts

Loss for the day 8pts

Running invested total - 2,136 pts

Total P & L -10.4pts

5.20 Brighton Bayamon Belle 9/2 ew

This 3yr old has showed improved form in her last 2 outings, which were both at the course. Has a very good chance here, with the addition of the first-time blinkers. Joe the trainer is in very good form also. I also think that the 11/4 fav/joint fav Mostallim won't be far away, but just the 1 pick here.

6.30 Ballinrobe Sargent Lightfoot 5/1 win

His best form should see him go close here on the heavy going.

24/05

Running P & L -10.4pts

Invested 3pts

Returns:

5.20 Bayamon Belle (done ew) places @ 9/2 returning 1.9pts

Invested 3pts - returns 1.9pts

Loss for the day 1.1pts

Running invested total - 2,139 pts

Total P & L -11.5pts

1.35 Southwell Caro Des Flos 9/1 ew

Only the 2nd ever chase start for this 9yr old, so that's a worry, as the only other time he tackled the larger obstacles he finished pulled up. That was over 2 years ago. He does have some good recent C & D form though; as he finished 2nd the last twice he tackled the 2m 4f here when hurdling. A bit of rain wouldn't go amiss here for this hold up performer in a race where there's two or three who like to get on with it.

7.15 Ballinrobe Deburrafield 25/1 ew

Came 2nd at the course over hurdles 2 yrs ago when with Cromwell. Only 3 chase outings thus far, and he's fallen twice. Of the ones at the top of the betting, some haven't got much form on heavy, and a couple are having their first go over fences. A bit of a punt, the selection, but the reason he interests me is that his sire had four runners at the course yesterday on the same heavy going; accumulating a first and second place in the same race, as well as a first and a third in two others. First time hood is used here, which should focus him, I reckons. Travelled well for a long time lto before falling, and it's only his 3rd run for his new trainer. Wouldn't be a shock should he win; despite his overall form.