Racing Uncertainties

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

8.00 Kempton Comeofeeltheforce 22/1 , Amnaa 80/1

Two each way punts. Nothing more to say really.

Came nowhere that day.... And it's only gone and won at 40/1 15 or so minutes ago

Not my day for not taking a better look at cards :pac:

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

5.30 Kempton Purple Paddy 15/2 e/w , Casavola 28/1 e/w

Will give this Purple Paddy another chance. Needs a smooth passage, and can come with a sustained burst at the end.

Casavola is a punt job. 4 runs, and she's finished closer to the winner each time.

A place for Purple Paddy is all... Note to self: Purple Paddy is a horse who needs to be delivered late from off a strongish pace,,, He's got a sudden burst of speed at the business end which he can sustain for about 120-150yds, or so... Not much good if he's too far back, and with a wall of horses in front of him.

Must back Purple Paddy in similar races as the last twice; but in 8-9 runner affairs, and not 13 or 14 like what he's being tackling recently,,

Not much with the olde P & L - about 1.5ps loss, and will update later..

14/12

Running P & L + 45.3pts

Invested 4pts

Returns:

Purple Paddy 5.30 (done e/w at 15/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.5pts

Total at Play 4pts - returns 2.5pts

Loss for the day 1.5pts

Running invested total - 611pts

Total P & L + 42.8pts

15/12

Following on from yesterday's tale of woe where I spied too late a couple I put up before at massive prices I've noticed 2 running today that I've put up before; and I won't miss out again.

Granted, neither of em are anywhere near as big, but I'm not letting them go without having a jab..

Both e/w at Newcastle

3.45 Clay Regazzoni 5/1
I believe he was a tad unlucky lto at Wolves, and had to go the long way around, as he couldn't get a rail sit.

5.25 Nellie French 20/1
This one I remember putting up as a punt before, and she still is today :P
I see Laoise (who I also put up before) is in this race, but I think 5 is too short for her, so just Nellie for me in this.

Another few , also at Newcastle that I don't think I've put up before, and am going each way on are:

4.55 Blazing Dreams 8/1 , Firsteen 8/1

5.25 Dandizette 20/1
Another one in the 5.25, and each way also.. I think this 3yr old is capable, and has just lost her way recently.. Her third run for Mrs Carr.. The first of the previous two was over C & D where she tried to make all and faded in the last furlong. Is racing off 52 today, and has won before from a mark of 69 last year over the same trip at Musselburgh on the turf. Am hoping Ruth has found the key to her. Jock is A Mullen, so that usually gives a sinking feeling. Hopefully he's on his game today.

No great confidence in any of the above, but I've not been confident before and done okay.

Looking forward to finding one at a price in the near future that I can be bullish about... Meanwhile, I'll still try and find a dart or three to throw most days, lest I get too lazy

G'luck :pac::pac:

Haven't done any studying last night and am just looking now.

Wolverhampton is on this evening, and I rarely let that meeting go without backing a few.

One I really like is Doctor Nuno; the paper favourite in the 7.40 at about 2/1. I don't like putting up too many shorties, and at 2s I would be tempted, but at 10/11 I'll leave him off. Still looks the one to beat all the same.

I've gone for two each way here, and one is yet another I've selected on here before; at least once, if not twice, but he has more to recommend him tonight.

7.40 Wolves Plumette 33/1 , Rusper's Lad 10/1
The first is a bit of a punt, and may not stay, but, if she's held up I can at least her in contention a furlong out.

Kraka's also in this. Pretty sure I've put him up before too, but not today. I think 6 is more his bag.

The 2nd Rusper's Lad (put up before) is a 'hopeful' punt, but not a massive price. He seems to be slow away, but the trainer Oliver Signy has only had him a while. This will be his fourth run for the new trainer, and with the cheekpieces applied for the first time the selection can hopefully be smart out the gates. Another one; if things pan out can be staying on well (hopefully) at the end.

Good luck everyone

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

7/12

A couple I really like today, and one's a punt...


4.05 Wolves Greengage 8/1 e/w
I think 12fs at the course is ideal for this mare. She was staying on well at the course over 2 1/2fs less a couple of runs back. That was in a Class 5 - goes today in a Class 6. Drawn wide in 10 should be ideal for a hold-up performer. Is twice a course winner, and has won over today's trip before at Newcastle.

3.55 Chelmsford Lady Alavesa 22/1 e/w
Another mare, and performs best when held up. Only 8 in this race, so hopefully she won't encounter too much trouble when making a late bid for glory. Has been banging on the door the last twice she ran here (over C & D). I'm confident of a good run today at a juicy price.

Plumpton 2.05 Mon Petit Cheri 150/1 e/w hope
I was scrolling through the racecard, and "The Chase" was on, and just as I was glancing at this one a question about Tony Blair was asked by Bradders. Could be written in stars, and her trainer who is also a female has been among the winners recently, and Paige the jockey has feminine credentials also. This one is a filly, so in the same ballpark as the other two (confident) selections. Stranger things have been known to happen eh?

Gluck Am due

It's getting chronic now

Glanced at that first race at Newcastle, and didn't have a proper look, as for some reason I thought it was an amateur race :mad:

Wins at 12/1. Fark me :pac:

Pity for the thread really and the P & L.. Whatever about those two previous ones I mentioned; would I have backed, or put them up here - I dunno??...Would definitely have put Greengage up.. So that's 1 big priced winner, a massive placer out of 2 runs from the three I picked at that time in the space of just over 24 hrs.. Lady Alavesa is definitely going up next time, if I see her out

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

15/12

Following on from yesterday's tale of woe where I spied too late a couple I put up before at massive prices I've noticed 2 running today that I've put up before; and I won't miss out again.

Granted, neither of em are anywhere near as big, but I'm not letting them go without having a jab..

Both e/w at Newcastle

3.45 Clay Regazzoni 5/1
I believe he was a tad unlucky lto at Wolves, and had to go the long way around, as he couldn't get a rail sit.

5.25 Nellie French 20/1
This one I remember putting up as a punt before, and she still is today :P
I see Laoise (who I also put up before) is in this race, but I think 5 is too short for her, so just Nellie for me in this.

Another few , also at Newcastle that I don't think I've put up before, and am going each way on are:

4.55 Blazing Dreams 8/1 , Firsteen 8/1

5.25 Dandizette 20/1
Another one in the 5.25, and each way also.. I think this 3yr old is capable, and has just lost her way recently.. Her third run for Mrs Carr.. The first of the previous two was over C & D where she tried to make all and faded in the last furlong. Is racing off 52 today, and has won before from a mark of 69 last year over the same trip at Musselburgh on the turf. Am hoping Ruth has found the key to her. Jock is A Mullen, so that usually gives a sinking feeling. Hopefully he's on his game today.

No great confidence in any of the above, but I've not been confident before and done okay.

Looking forward to finding one at a price in the near future that I can be bullish about... Meanwhile, I'll still try and find a dart or three to throw most days, lest I get too lazy

G'luck :pac::pac:

NR now Blazing Dreams

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

15/12

Following on from yesterday's tale of woe where I spied too late a couple I put up before at massive prices I've noticed 2 running today that I've put up before; and I won't miss out again.

Granted, neither of em are anywhere near as big, but I'm not letting them go without having a jab..

Both e/w at Newcastle

3.45 Clay Regazzoni 5/1
I believe he was a tad unlucky lto at Wolves, and had to go the long way around, as he couldn't get a rail sit.

5.25 Nellie French 20/1
This one I remember putting up as a punt before, and she still is today :P
I see Laoise (who I also put up before) is in this race, but I think 5 is too short for her, so just Nellie for me in this.

Another few , also at Newcastle that I don't think I've put up before, and am going each way on are:

4.55 Blazing Dreams 8/1 , Firsteen 8/1

5.25 Dandizette 20/1
Another one in the 5.25, and each way also.. I think this 3yr old is capable, and has just lost her way recently.. Her third run for Mrs Carr.. The first of the previous two was over C & D where she tried to make all and faded in the last furlong. Is racing off 52 today, and has won before from a mark of 69 last year over the same trip at Musselburgh on the turf. Am hoping Ruth has found the key to her. Jock is A Mullen, so that usually gives a sinking feeling. Hopefully he's on his game today.

No great confidence in any of the above, but I've not been confident before and done okay.

Looking forward to finding one at a price in the near future that I can be bullish about... Meanwhile, I'll still try and find a dart or three to throw most days, lest I get too lazy

G'luck :pac::pac:

And Fanning pulls the head off him giving him no chance; sends him forward about 3 1/2 fs out, and had zero chance at that stage with all the energy spent.. Rancid crooks :mad:

7.10 Wolves Swissal 9/1 e/w

Likes to be held up. About 1/2 the field like to be in front, so should suit one what comes from behind.

Rubbish day so far

Really thought last race was tailor made for Swissal.

A couple in th next - hope springs eternal :P

Nothing there either - never even in with a shout. Just a crap day :mad:

These e/w

2.10 Ling Ghepardo 33/1
2.30 Ludlow Brelan D'as 5/1
2.55 Newbury Flaminger 4/1

15/12

Running P & L + 42.8pts

Invested 16pts. Blazing Dreams 4.55 NR @ 2pts. Total at play 14pts.

Returns - none

Total at play 14pts - returns zero

Loss for the day 14pts

Running invested total - 625pts

Total P & L + 28.8pts

12.20 Ludlow Iron Port 200/1 e/w punt

2 e/w at Lingfield
2.45 Capriolette 13/2
3.20 Melburnian 9/1

6.35 Kempton Maysong 8/1 e/w

7.35 Kempton Porto Ferro 40/1 e/w

One I've put up before, and she's too big to overlook today. Seems to be a lot of pace on in this 7f affair. Has never won over the trip, or the course, but has won off higher marks in the past. Racing off the basement rating (OR is 43) I'm hoping her 7lb claiming jockey C Hutchinson (who has ridden a few winners) can make the difference; and the selection can at least get a place by coming late to pass beaten horses - that's the hope and theory anyway :pac:

Gluck

7.05 Kempton Sarah's Verse 20/1 ew

This one is starting to get competitive in her recent two races, and has drifted out to a decent price. Is bigger than above with many o the books.

Gluck..... been poor recently, and due a turnaround

6.05 Kempton Espresso Freddo 5/1 win

C & D winner lto... Looks value to win here.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

6.05 Kempton Espresso Freddo 5/1 win

C & D winner lto... Looks value to win here.

Jockey must have thought he was sitting on Pegasus there - looked the fav two out - he was cruising, and ends up 2nd, with the winner getting first run.. Still a few to go, with a winner badly needed to stem the flow

16/12

Running P & L + 28.8pts

Invested 19pts

Returns:

Brelan D'as 2.30 (done e/w) places at 7/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
Porto Ferro 7.35 (done e/w @ 40s) places at a fifth the odds returning 9pts

Total at play 19pts - returns 11.4pts

Loss for the day 7.6pts

Running invested total - 644pts

Total P & L + 21.2pts

2 at Chelmsford

5.30 Durabella 6/1 e/w
8.30 Casina di Notte 6/1 e/w

3.15 Exeter Kingston Mimosa 25/1 e/w

Last two runs aint been so good. The first of those was after an absence, and the most recent was over 2 miles. A line can be drawn through those runs, as 2m is too short for him I believe. I think over 2 1/2 miles on soft/heavy ground at this level, that this fellah is definitely capable of making his presence felt here. Goes well at the course too, based on a good second over C & D in April of last year, although that was on better ground. Likes the course, likes the ground and trip = enough boxes ticked.

1.55 Hereford Guy 7/2 win

Bit of value against fav; might nab him late..

2.30 Hereford Scorpion Haze 22/1 e/w

2.30 Rootless Tree 22/1 e/w

3.05 Hereford Karakoram 20/1 e/w

5.45 Southwell Antagonize 10/1 e/w

3.50 Exeter Pour Une Raison 11/2 win

Won a shade cosily lto at the course - good amateur on top.

5.30 Chelmsford Diamond And Gold 20/1 e/w, Baby Sham 16/1 e/w
8.30 Weloof 16/1 e/w

17/12

Running P & L + 21.2pts

Invested 22pts

returns - none

Total at play 22pts - returns 0pts

Today's loss 22pts

Running invested total - 666pts

Total P & L -0.8pts

18/12

Bad run can't go on forever :pac:

Going each way on a few tomorrow

Uttoxeter
2.55 El Scorpio 10/1
Was staying on in 6th beaten 4 1/2 lengths at the course last month, over half a mile shorter on soft. Heavy going tomorrow, which may not exactly suit. Hard to know with him. A bit of a punt this 8yr old, but he's lightly raced.

Wolverhampton
4.10 Red Allure 9/2
Pinning my hopes on this one being drawn low, and trying to make all; as she's done before here.
4.10 Trulove 66/1
A second selection in the race. A bit of a punt this one, just like she was when last I put her up. Not a complete forlorn hope. If she can break well from the nine box, then everything's up for grabs.

4.45 Sacred Legacy 14/1
Seen some money last time he tackled C & D; had no luck that day, but he's only three and could be capable with a bit of improvement.

6.15 Parish Academy 33/1
Top weight in a handicap. Ran well for most of the race the last time over the extended mile here, when running wide. Faded in the last furlong, and on that basis I think 7fs should suit.

8.15 Murat Asset 14/1
Is a reasonable each way bet here. In his five previous races, he's never raced over a shorter distance than in his previous races. Am thinking that this staying distance trip could be up his alley. Is surely well handicapped if that's the plan

Good luck

^^^

Sacred Legacy 4.45 NR

I see El Scorpio in the 2.55 is generally best priced 15/2. I was worried (well, not worried) that he was a bit underpriced at 10s :P, based on his form figures, probable sp (14s I think) etc.. But at the kind of prices I generally put up, and how I think they may run, hunting 'value' is not exactly paramount (like I said before, will leave that to the professionals).

Red Allure in the 4.45 at Wolves is now 6/1, which is good, as she's a decent each way get your money back proposition. The fav in that race Arcavello is now a best-priced 13/8 (from 5/2). Other than the fact that it's a poor race that won't take much winning, I myself can't see why this Dods' horse is such a warm fav. He has however won off much higher marks before; but has recently being running over today's trip and grade, on a similar course in Newcastle, without doing much.

The few going today will hopefully give me a good run, but can't be overly optimistic of ending the poor run.

Might get a shout in with a couple at least.. hopefully

3.15 Southwell Popple 9/2 win

Had another look at the cards there, and I think this one has a sporting chance of troubling the judge. I know it was only a five furlongs race, but he was staying on past beaten horses at the course on his second run. On his more recent attempt at 5fs at Southwell he weakened late on having being driven, but as that was over 2fs shorter than today, I won't read much into it.

His latest run interests me in the context of today's race. That was at Kempton over today's trip of 7, where he finished 7th of 14. My thinking is that he was too far back to have a chance, and Southwell is generally considered to be one of the fairer AW tracks; so I believe if he's good enough, he can be near enough to be good enough to win :pac:

Could turn out to be a bit of value, but on his overall profile, it's win or nothing, hence the win only bet.

Gluck

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

18/12



Going each way on a few tomorrow

Uttoxeter
2.55 El Scorpio 10/1
Was staying on in 6th beaten 4 1/2 lengths at the course last month, over half a mile shorter on soft. Heavy going tomorrow, which may not exactly suit. Hard to know with him. A bit of a punt this 8yr old, but he's lightly raced.


Good luck

Was never travelling - could only manage fifth or sixth
Almost had high hopes when I saw the price contraction :pac:
Another one bites the dust. This poor run is really getting to me now

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

3.15 Southwell Popple 9/2 win

Had another look at the cards there, and I think this one has a sporting chance of troubling the judge. I know it was only a five furlongs race, but he was staying on past beaten horses at the course on his second run. On his more recent attempt at 5fs at Southwell he weakened late on having being driven, but as that was over 2fs shorter than today, I won't read much into it.

His latest run interests me in the context of today's race. That was at Kempton over today's trip of 7, where he finished 7th of 14. My thinking is that he was too far back to have a chance, and Southwell is generally considered to be one of the fairer AW tracks; so I believe if he's good enough, he can be near enough to be good enough to win :pac:

Could turn out to be a bit of value, but on his overall profile, it's win or nothing, hence the win only bet.

Gluck

Got a good possy early doors; close to the pace, but faded in last half furlong or so, to finish out the places in 5th. Had to be rousted along at the start; so not one to discount completely next time out over 6 perhaps, or even the same trip as today - the 7fs one,,

5.45 Wolves The Sedberghian 14/1 e/w

C & D winner, and looks a tad overpriced to me..

^^^

Richard Hughes has the well backed 2/5 jolly in this. Won as easy as you like lto over tonight's trip; but that was at Southwell... Different ballgame today..

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

5.45 Wolves The Sedberghian 14/1 e/w

C & D winner, and looks a tad overpriced to me..

Farkin laverrly

I know he only come placed in third; but at a whopping 20/1... Noice :pac:

Make that 22/1

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

^^^

Richard Hughes has the well backed 2/5 jolly in this. Won as easy as you like lto over tonight's trip; but that was at Southwell... Different ballgame today..

Was well wrong about this one - won doing handstands

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

18/12

8.15 Murat Asset 14/1
Is a reasonable each way bet here. In his five previous races, he's never raced over a shorter distance than in his previous races. Am thinking that this staying distance trip could be up his alley. Is surely well handicapped if that's the plan

Good luck

2nd at 20s - a bit unlucky; found some trouble in home stretch - may not have won anyway though.

18/12

Running P & L -0.8pts

Invested 15pts. Sacred Legacy 4.45 NR @ 2pts. 13pts at stake.

Returns:

Red Allure 4.10 Wolves places at 7/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 2.4pts
Murat Asset 8.15 Wolves places at 20/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 5pts
The Sedberghian 5.45 Wolves places at 22/1 a fifth the odds a place returning 5.4pts

Total at play 13pts - returns 12.6pts

Loss for the day 0.4pts

Running invested total - 679pts

Total P & L -1.2pts

19/12

A poor run lately, but I'm undeterred. The inspiration, or 'The Muse' doesn't appear to be there atm. On a good day I can easily find 10 or more picks to throw up (hope I can get back to them days) , but the cards 'just don't suit me' currently, and I cannae get a good enough handle on them to either pick one; or to go beyond taking more than just a cursory glance at the majority of the races

Nonetheless I have picked a few out for tomorrow (today now, to be precise :pac:)

Unfortunately (or not - if they land, that is ) most of the few I've picked are 'punt' jobs...

Since writing the above I've decided to take a look at the "Quality" jumps meets: Ascot, and Haydock, and I feel I've picked out a few with 'proper' each way shouts, and not merely punt jobs. I've taken the going into account mainly with all of the picks from those 2 meets. Unfortunately a couple of the Haydock selections are in 2 place races, but no matter.

These are the picks and all each way - even the shortish ones at 11/4, or thereabouts -

Haydock
11.50 Le Ligerien 6/1
1.30 Ball D'arc 10/1
3.15 Queenofhearts 11/4, No Hiding Place 6/1, Goodbye Dancer 7/1
Only 3 places here, but I'm very confident that all of these are capable of a bold showing, and wouldn't be surprised if they filled the top three spots.

Ascot
1.50 Saint Sonnet 11/2, Not Another Muddle 8/1
3.35 5 places on offer here, so I've gone with 5, all of whom I believe have a good chance in the feature.
Not So Sleepy 18/1, Botox Has 20/1, Arrivederci 13/2, Cormier 40/1, Lightly Squeeze 12/1

And the ones; a lot of which are the proverbial punts that I've selected earlier:

Lingfield
2.35 Soghan 11/2
3.10 Bo Taifan 66/1, Birkie Queen 33/1 - both are punts
3.40 Abel Tasman 11/4

Wolverhampton
4.00 Bankawi 40/1 - punt
4.30 Lili Wen Fach 25/1 - yet another punt

Gluck if ye're having a go I think I've got a fair few decent selections in the NH races, and hope to make a profit

Not a great start. Le Ligerien in the 11.50 the only viable challenger to pass the one in front, and eventual easy winner. Faded up the run-in to come 4th, I think (only 2 places on offer). Trying to win cost him what would have been a likely 2nd for us each way backers :pac:

What I like to see though - a jockey trying at least to win.

What I don't like is them zoom in on the winner 50 yards from the line, and can't see another horse until 10-30 yards from the line :mad: Why the cameraman can't use a wide view, so folk can see who's fighting it out for the places is beyond me - tis annoying :mad: :mad:

Don't mind so much if it looks like my pick is a shoo-in for a place; but that wasn't the case in this instance. He was one-paced last we saw of him (thanks cameraman :rolleyes: ), and looked odds-on at the time to be third, or worse.

Can't really blame the cameraman much; as he's only doing what he's told; but this sh1t's annoying, and happens in the majority of races :mad:

And now for some "good news" vis the next race (selection wise) at least - the 1.30. Ball D'arc was put up at 10s (didn't think it was exactly overpriced myself, as it's been off for almost a year, and has had a few different trainers) , and is now generally best-priced 5/1 across the board.

Same jockey on top as in the first. Hopefully Ben Jones is fresh and fit, having no rides in the intervening two races, and both him and Ball D'arc can put up a bold showing

Ball D'arc pulled up

Nothing in the 1.50.. Things can only get better :rolleyes:

Muck so far.. Nothing

3 winners + a place out of the last 3 races

9 selections in total in those 3 :pac:, but still in profit with them at least :pac:

Marginal profit for the day.. Nice for a change

And in the 4 o'c at Wolves a 'punt' clicks (e/w that is) with Bankawi coming 2nd at 40s. A very good day all things considered, as just an hour ago a washout was on the cards; or at least it seemed that way, even tho I had 5 what I thought were pretty good picks to come in the 3.35.

Anyway, thread deffo in profit for day, so I'm more than happy with that.. Better finishing with a win than starting I reckon