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Racing Uncertainties
Comments
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09/01
Running P & L -32.7pts
Invested 19pts. 1.45 Almazhar Garde NR @ 2pts. 17pts in play.
Returns:
3.10 Prime Venture (done e/w) places at 16s at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
3.10 Secret Reprieve (done e/w at 7/2) wins with a fifth the odds for a place returning 6.2pts
3.30 Boreham Bill (done e/w) wins at 66/1
at a fifth the odds a place returning 81.2pts
Total in play 17pts - returns 91.6pts
Profit for the day 74.6pts
Running invested total - 1,097 pts
Total P & L + 41.9pts0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »04/01
Running P & L -95.9pts
Invested 36pts. Sarah's Verse 4.50 NR @ 2pts, Anisoptera 1.40 NR @ 1pt, Dynali 1.40 NR @ 2pts. 31pts in play.
Returns:
Nellie French 3.50 (done e/w at 33/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 7.6pts
Hermocrates 5.20 places at 9/2 at a quarter the odds returning 2.1pts
Stacey Sue 2.25 (done e/w at 22s) places at a fifth the odds with a 35p rule 4 returning 3.8pts
Chimes Of Dylan 2.55 places at 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts
Total in play 31pts - returns 16.5pts
Loss for the day 14.5pts
Running invested total - 1,009 pts
Total P & L -110.4ptsDeleted User wrote: »09/01
Running P & L -32.7pts
Invested 19pts. 1.45 Almazhar Garde NR @ 2pts. 17pts in play.
Returns:
3.10 Prime Venture (done e/w) places at 16s at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
3.10 Secret Reprieve (done e/w at 7/2) wins with a fifth the odds for a place returning 6.2pts
3.30 Boreham Bill (done e/w) wins at 66/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 81.2pts
Total in play 17pts - returns 91.6pts
Profit for the day 74.6pts
Running invested total - 1,097 pts
Total P & L + 41.9pts
Pretty good lately
What a difference a week makes
More than a 150pt swing in the positive direction from less than a 90pts outlay...
Very happy with that
Hope somebody else backed Boreham Bill; although going by the drift not many did :pac:0 -
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12/01
Newcastle
All EW
3.25 Lopes Dancer 9/2
4.00 Rathbone 7/1, Kapono 9/1
4.30 Glasvegas 4/1
6.00 Swing Low 28/1 , The Quiet Rebel 9/1 , Destacado 7/1
6.30 Bobby Joe Leg 22/1 , Baronial Pride 7/2 (was disappointed when I saw that price - was expecting way bigger
... )
Gluck0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »12.30 Wetherby 25/1 e/w Native Choice
price looks a bit big imo
5th
Had a very good chance of getting third, but pecked on landing after jumping second last, and that put paid to his chances.0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »2.05 Wetherby Sao 9/2 win
And he wins
A bit of an ungainly conveyance, who didn't travel or jump great (not poor either, but just does seem to not be too interested in the game) , and thanks to a faller at the last he won comfortably enough, with one gaining towards the line, but that one had too much ground to make up.
A few fallers, and the one that benefitted the winner the most fell at the last (Eragone - who was just marginally ahead of the selection at the time, and looked favourite to me to prevail at that stage... And looking at how the selection finished the race off, I think that Becky Smith's mount would have won had he stayed up) . Skelton's horse fell earlier, so hard to assess how he'd have done, but I don't think he'd have been in either of the top two spots.
Selection won though, and that's all that counts :pac:
In the 2.15 Lingfield the well-backed Hotalena didn't do much..0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »12/01
Newcastle
4.30 Glasvegas 4/1 A graveyard that far rail side - Darragh Keenan's mount was travelling well enough, but faded into 4th, after looking like he'd come with a winning run - I think he even decided he wanted to switch outside late on :P , but there was no room - between a loose horse, and another upsides there was nowhere really to go. The horse's chances had gone anyway at that stage, with 2 or 3 having passed him, and pulling away.... 0 -
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14/01
Thursday's pin jobs
Chelmsford
4.55 Dors Toyboy 8/1
5.30 Gracie's Girl 11/1
6.30 Junoesque 12/1
7.00 Strawberry Jack 8/1
7.30 Essgee Nics 8/1
Fontwell
1.00 Delgany Monarch 9/2
1.30 Hasankey 11/2 , Jaisalmer 16/1
3.30 Inspireus 22/1
Bangor
1.20 Kilpin 5/1
2.20 Late Shipment 40/1
2.50 Kala Noire 8/1
3.20 Strike Hollow 6/1 , Lime Drop 66/1 , Lexi's Choice 33/1
3.50 Karannelle 40/1
All EW
Good luck :pac: Will be doing well to make a profit today, but one never knows... Am just ahead at the minute and want to stay that way - 3 wins and 5 places would be grand :pac:0 -
Deleted User wrote: »29/12
Running P & L -50.1pts
Invested 27pts. Late Date 3.07 NR @ 2pts, Zeyzoun 4.30 NR @ 2pts. 23pts in play.
Returns:
11.40 Gipsy Lee Rose places at 5/1 at a quarter the odds returning 2.2pts
12.12 Deluxe Range (done e/w at 4/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 6.8pts
3.07 Scoop The Pot (done e/w at 11/4) places at a fifth the odds with a 15p rule 4 returning 1.4pts
Total in play 23pts - returns 10.4pts
Loss for the day 12.6pts
Running invested total - 906pts
Total P & L -62.7ptsDeleted User wrote: »Not at all good recently. At one stage the thread was up ~15%, and now alas, it's at about a 7% deficit.
Am due a bit of a run - in the next 350-400pts (if it lasts that long) I'd like to be at >5% profit. A lowly enough ambition, but quite a few points to claw back, and don't want to set sights too high...
I will keep trying anyway
Deleted User wrote: »12/01
Running P & L + 27.3pts
Invested 27pts
Returns:
3.25 Lopes Dancer (done e/w) places at 9/2 at a fifth the odds returning 1.9pts
6.00 Destacado (done e/w at 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
3.50 Decora (done e/w) places at 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
2.05 Sao (done win) wins at 9/2 returning 5.5pts
Total in play 27pts - returns 14pts
Loss for the day 13pts
Running invested total - 1,142 pts
Total P & L + 14.3pts
Reckon I need about a 40-45% ROI to get to that >5% profit goal - only about another 160 or so points to use to get to that target... Not beyond the bounds of possibilities; esp if I have a good day today... 0 -
[Deleted User] wrote: »Reckon I need about a 40-45% ROI to get to that >5% profit goal - only about another 160 or so points to use to get to that target... Not beyond the bounds of possibilities; esp if I have a good day today...
Ya this crap working on a points system is all over tik tok fighting for subscriptions from different tipsters .
Total bull **** if they were making money they wouldn’t need other people’s money .
One guy is on we listen more to his house hold duties and his little cough from covid to justify bad tips, to no i tips .
Fair enough some days he’s good but on law of averages we all know why bookies have money and punters don’t.0 -
Ya this crap working on a points system is all over tik tok fighting for subscriptions from different tipsters .
Total bull **** if they were making money they wouldn’t need other people’s money .
One guy is on we listen more to his house hold duties and his little cough from covid to justify bad tips, to no i tips .
Fair enough some days he’s good but on law of averages we all know why bookies have money and punters don’t.
Pure bs like you said.. I don't listen to, or subscribe to any of them myself...
"Points System" lol... All this crap about "advised" prices
Most likely their (the so-called 'good' , or mostly those tipsters that would be in profit ) 'advised prices' cannot be got... Perhaps were never available to begin with :rolleyes:
If I can stay level, or marginally in profit using readily available prices to either 1pt win , or 1pt e/w (would consider both of those to be level stakes, as each way contains 2 bets) I'll be content; for now at least - unless I hit another good run, and then I'll be going for at least 10%+ profit :pac:
Leff0 -
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Subject to a "Precautionary" :pac: :pac: :pac: inspection at 7.30; but should it get the go ahead, here are my picks at:
Catterick
12.40 Caldwell 13/2
1.10 The Reaping Race 4/1
2.10 Sheriff Garrett 11/1
2.40 Brian Boranha 8/1
3.10 Milanvera 16/1
3.40 Nefyn Point 3/1
Caldwell looks a good price for at least a place methinks - I see the jolly in that 12.40 is an ex 'her maj' horse (Punctuation) , who's now with different connections, and having his first outing over obstacles priced at about 2/1 - not for me today though... The selection is still a colt too, so another reason to be hopeful...
2.10 Sheriff Garrett partnered by the champ BS Hughes was doing pretty good in 2018 over similar trips/grades/going , but was off for about 2 years until last November - admittedly he hasn't done much in the three outings he's had since the layoff, but he's only 7, should be fit, and has the assistance of Hughesie for the first time.
2.40 Brian Boranha. A standing dish at these staying trips. He hasn't won on proper soft going before, but was going well in this race last year on soft before coming to grief at the last, and would have most likely finished third in a fast run race. He is down 9lbs since then, has the tonguestrap applied for the first time, and is only ten, which is not ancient for this staying event.
3.10 Milanvera has done little so far, and today sports first time cheekpieces. She ran an okay race two runs back, was well supported lto, and it doesn't look like a very strong race, and at a decent price will do me.
The other two selections are 4/1, and 3/1, so if going solely on prices should be bang there.
Gluck, and will hope the fixture goes ahead
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In the spirit of the 'bs' talk as mentioned earlier I have some supplementary Bullshit to add :pac:
Supp BS No 1: I shall give a 'favourable mention' to Wise Eagle in the 12.40 (he used to be co-owned by a popular poster on this forum when owned by YTR, and in the care of Tom Clover). He had a good first outing over the sticks, when coming 2nd over C & D last backend (or last month) . It wouldn't surprise me to see him go close, and I will give myself an appreciative pat on the back should he oblige. All bs aside though, and available at 7/2, I think he's the one to beat on form, and probably should threaten the ex Queen's horse for favouritism; indeed one feels he shall verily usurp the current jolly come the off, does one ..
Supp BS part two: The highly touted, and well regarded Kevin Brogan (who claims 7) has rides in the 4th, 6th, and 7th (last) race here..
So there you have some bs talk, and favourable mentions that I can take credit for, even though I haven't as much as a Rex on any of the 4 referenced :pac:
WISE EAGLE should go well; all rubbish aside - figured I'd just go 1 selection per race (for a change :pac:)
*Alas, I am not the first on this site to mention the above horse, but I have given myself an advance pat on the back for noting him, and another couple of pats for mentioning K Brogan
As an aside there are some snide lurking types around theses herees pawrts, so I've got bothy barreles loaded , and several mags too (figuratively speaking that is) , so if any kernt wants tae have a go u've ben worned.. Take effin note, cos I'll reciprocate with interest.
*Cos they might no like my opinion/s, or how I give 'em, but they're no rudy oblijed to read me thread :mad: Kerrrnts :mad::mad:
Good luck all0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »14/01
Thursday's pin jobs
Chelmsford
4.55 Dors Toyboy 8/1
5.30 Gracie's Girl 11/1
6.30 Junoesque 12/1
7.00 Strawberry Jack 8/1
7.30 Essgee Nics 8/1
Fontwell
1.00 Delgany Monarch 9/2
1.30 Hasankey 11/2 , Jaisalmer 16/1
3.30 Inspireus 22/1
Bangor
1.20 Kilpin 5/1
2.20 Late Shipment 40/1
2.50 Kala Noire 8/1
3.20 Strike Hollow 6/1 , Lime Drop 66/1 , Lexi's Choice 33/1
3.50 Karannelle 40/1
All EW
Good luck :pac: Will be doing well to make a profit today, but one never knows... Am just ahead at the minute and want to stay that way - 3 wins and 5 places would be grand :pac:
Lime Drop NR 3.20 Bangor0 -
Catterick Abandoned - what were the odds? :rolleyes:
A waste of time looking at cards subject to a precautionary
:mad: :mad:
Maybe it's 'Confirmation Bias' but it sure seems to this poster that these Precautionary Inspections are sure punching above their weight with regards to the the concerned meeting/s being abandoned - lol, joke of a system; with no consideration to punters, or trainers. If I was in charge there would be no such thing as precautionary inspections - maybe for the big meets only :mad:0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »Kilpin no good.... That's 0 from 2.. Have three here in the 1.30, so hopefully
hope you done the forecast0 -
Deleted User wrote: »Kilpin no good.... That's 0 from 2.. Have three here in the 1.30, so hopefully
Not too bad... Had the fav (knew he was 'value' at 15/8 the shortie :P ) , who won at 6/4, and the gallant drifter Hasankey, who was worn down on the run-in to come 2nd at 10s. The other pick (jaisalmer) ran well for about 2 thirds of the race, so had a run from him too...0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »
A HUNNNNDREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDD TO 1placer:Pwith a 10p rule 4 I think....... Gwan Lexi's choice
Thread back in profit: 
the one i dont back.
how that horse keep going to get home in second ill never know0 -
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