Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

JRant

MadYaker wrote: »

Who’s the right man for the job so?

Dr Glynn was doing fine when he was acting CMO. In fact, he seemed to have a far more measured approach without Tony's influence.

LLMMLL

acequion wrote: »

While you make good points it's too simplistic to say that we are better off because of all the restrictions. There are many other variables. Population size and population density being two. Countries like France, Holland, Belgium have very high populations and population density, as well as being bang in the middle of Europe sharing borders with many other countries. Germany too though Germany did fare a lot better in the first wave. And just look at how things are at home. The bigger cities with their bigger populations have the highest numbers and the more remote rural counties, the smallest.

However I have never disputed that restrictions keep numbers down. It's the cost of the collateral damage to the wider society that is my gripe. But even with all our restrictions we still have our schools open. Thousands of adults and youngsters milling around indoor centres every day and it hasn't caused any meaningful spike.

Hence my point that restrictions alone are not the reason for lower numbers.

it won't cause a."spike" as it's not a new thing. The schools have been open for months.....why would there be a spike.

They could and probably are responsible for a consistent number of cases.

If we had schools open and no restrictions we would have a higher number of cases.

If we had schools shut and restrictions.we would have a lower number of cases.

If we had one or the other we would have an in between number of cases.

Weren't there figures released 2 weeks ago that showed the main areas of infection were hospitals and .......... Schools?

Necro

acequion wrote: »

While you make good points it's too simplistic to say that we are better off because of all the restrictions. There are many other variables. Population size and population density being two. Countries like France, Holland, Belgium have very high populations and population density, as well as being bang in the middle of Europe sharing borders with many other countries. Germany too though Germany did fare a lot better in the first wave. And just look at how things are at home. The bigger cities with their bigger populations have the highest numbers and the more remote rural counties, the smallest.

However I have never disputed that restrictions keep numbers down. It's the cost of the collateral damage to the wider society that is my gripe. But even with all our restrictions we still have our schools open. Thousands of adults and youngsters milling around indoor centres every day and it hasn't caused any meaningful spike.

Hence my point that restrictions alone are not the reason for lower numbers.

Actually that's not the case, the border regions ie: those closest to the North have higher per capita infection rates, namely Donegal and Louth.

See here - https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20201218%20-%20website.pdf

Kermit.de.frog

Also see North and South Dakota in the US...among the worst. Doesn't get more rural and sparse.

Rrrrrr2

JRant wrote: »

Dr Glynn was doing fine when he was acting CMO. In fact, he seemed to have a far more measured approach without Tony's influence.

There was a lot less hysteria and things were more matter of fact- Tony is a forever drama Queen.

GazzaL

This lockdown craic is ****ing off the wall. I was talking to two 70-something year olds today who worked throughout the entire pandemic and they've both said they'll continue working despite NPHET and the Dublin media ****eing on about more lockdowns.

Necro

JRant wrote: »

Dr Glynn was doing fine when he was acting CMO. In fact, he seemed to have a far more measured approach without Tony's influence.

I don't disagree on that point actually. But do I think the recent decisions would be any different with Glynn as CMO?

Nope, not remotely.

Boggles

GazzaL wrote: »

This lockdown craic is ****ing off the wall. I was talking to two 70-something year olds today who worked throughout the entire pandemic and they've both said they'll continue working despite NPHET and the Dublin media ****eing on about more lockdowns.

But sure they are entitled to keep working.

I fail to see your point?

normanoffside

Necro wrote: »

It's kind of a difficult one to quantify.

The countries that opened wide up for the summer are now in the thralls of serious problems with hospitals almost overwhelmed.

Germany as an example had nearly 900 Covid related deaths yesterday, and by and large they would have the best medical facilities certainly in the EU.

Germany, Italy and others had more or less the same levels as us at the end of the summer.
Both Germany and Italy were on our Green list at one time in September.

Where they are now has nothing to do with them opening up for the summer.

acequion

Necro wrote: »

Actually that's not the case, the border regions ie: those closest to the North have higher per capita infection rates, namely Donegal and Louth.

See here - https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20201218%20-%20website.pdf

Yes they do. But that's precisely because they're close to the north, a border with another jurisdiction. Hence another variable. Just compare the figures in Donegal with it's southernmost counterpart, Kerry, to see what I mean.

Goldengirl

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I remember reading an article from a doctor in CUH around October discussing ICU. It was in response to NPHET saying ICU in the hospital at the time had Covid patients and was full. This resulted in some fearful newspaper articles.

So a doctor done a piece about how they operate ICU. The long and the short of it is they use as many beds as possible at all times as there is no sense in having empty capacity. Many ICU patients are just as well off in critical care beds, which there is no shortage of (14,000) so they try to keep only a small number of ICU beds free and if they need to move anyone to make room there is always plenty of CC beds available (my understanding is a critical care bed is an ICU bed without the bells and whistles).

So Dublin only having 3 beds available means ICU is operating pretty much as normal.

No , this is all incorrect .
Not normal in Dublin as increases in virus and severely ill patients requiring ICU is taking up any extra reserve.
I am an ICU nurse. When I talk about critical care I am talking about ICU beds not general ward or high dependency in general wards.
There are about 200 beds free in the whole country that includes the ICU beds , I don't know where you are getting 14000 !
I explained in my previous post this is the busiest time normally for hospitals and now even with the flu taking a back seat we are running into problems before even people start travelling and partying for Christmas.
I don't know what doctor you are quoting but if intensively ill patients end up being cared for in high dependency areas of general wards, that is the end of any normal health services and hospitals will have to cancel anything scheduled .
We are trying to keep both Covid and nonCovid going at the present time and have been succeeding in this since last lockdown .

Boggles

acequion wrote: »

Yes they do. But that's precisely because they're close to the north, a border with another jurisdiction. Hence another variable. Just compare the figures in Donegal with it's southernmost counterpart, Kerry, to see what I mean.

Donegal has spent longer in higher levels of restrictions then Kerry for that very reason.

Necro

normanoffside wrote: »

Germany, Italy and others had more or less the same levels as us at the end of the summer.
Both Germany and Italy were on our Green list at one time in September.

Where they are now has nothing to do with them opening up for the summer.

I don't think I said that, but I can see why you might think I did.

The reason they are having the issues they are having now imo anyways is because they didn't enact restrictions in time.

We shut down fully again at circa 1000 cases per day, the UK as a comparison was getting 15 to 20k cases daily and carrying on like nothing was happening.

I don't like the restrictions but unfortunately they're the only thing that combats transmission effectively

Necro

acequion wrote: »

Yes they do. But that's precisely because they're close to the north, a border with another jurisdiction. Hence another variable. Just compare the figures in Donegal with it's southernmost counterpart, Kerry, to see what I mean.

I'm a bit confused as to your point, you initially said the areas with higher population density had more transmission and I showed you where it wasn't the case.

The variable you talk about is the North not having the same restrictions as us... so...

Like I said, I don't like the restrictions, I don't think anyone does. But they seem to be the only way to combat transmission.

normanoffside

Necro wrote: »

I don't think I said that, but I can see why you might think I did.

The reason they are having the issues they are having now imo anyways is because they didn't enact restrictions in time.

But they did have a lot of Freedom in the summer.
They were encouraged to travel and holiday; all bars and restaurants were open etc.

We'd be a lot more willing to accept restrictions now if we'd been allowed to live a little in the summer months.
Instead it has been non stop doom and gloom now for 9 months.

Even when we were having single digit figures and no deaths for months, Tony was extremely concerned.

Necro

normanoffside wrote: »

But they did have a lot of Freedom in the summer.
They were encouraged to travel and holiday; all bars and restaurants were open etc.

We'd be a lot more willing to accept restrictions now if we'd been allowed to live a little in the summer months.
Instead it has been non stop doom and gloom now for 9 months.

Even when we were having single digit figures and no deaths for months, Tony was extremely concerned.

Tony wasn't even there in the summer, he took his leave of absence.
We were encouraged to have staycations, I don't think there's any real issue with that for one year personally.

The only thing that wasn't open was the... *shudders* wet pubs (I hate that terminology)

Penfailed

GazzaL wrote: »

This lockdown craic is ****ing off the wall. I was talking to two 70-something year olds today who worked throughout the entire pandemic and they've both said they'll continue working despite NPHET and the Dublin media ****eing on about more lockdowns.

What's your point? If they're working in a post that the government haven't closed as part of the restrictions, what's the issue? Good rant though.

Penfailed

acequion wrote: »

Yes they do. But that's precisely because they're close to the north, a border with another jurisdiction. Hence another variable. Just compare the figures in Donegal with it's southernmost counterpart, Kerry, to see what I mean.

Monaghan? Cavan? The figures are pretty high in south west Donegal which is a fair trek from the border.

normanoffside

Necro wrote: »

Tony wasn't even there in the summer, he took his leave of absence.
We were encouraged to have staycations, I don't think there's any real issue with that for one year personally.

The only thing that wasn't open was the... *shudders* wet pubs (I hate that terminology)

Tony's last move before he took his leave of absence was to completely poo poo the idea of taking holidays abroad just at the time when other countries were opening up for travel.

It was off the back of his 'concerns' that we had a green list of countries where it was safe to travel to but were sill advised not to do so.
People were completely confused by the messaging and even though holiday destinations like Greece and Italy were on our green list, they thought they somehow weren't allowed to go there.

normanoffside

My memory doesn't fail me https://www.thejournal.ie/tony-holohan-foreign-travel-staycation-green-list-covid19-5134476-Jun2020/

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

We'd be a lot more willing to accept restrictions now if we'd been allowed to live a little in the summer months.
.

If you didn't "live a little in the summer months" that was a personal choice.

The majority of hospitality was open.

Penfailed

England had a 3 tier system of restrictions...until today. They've now put millions of people into Tier 4. Very strict rules over the Christmas and New Year period.

acequion

Necro wrote: »

I'm a bit confused as to your point, you initially said the areas with higher population density had more transmission and I showed you where it wasn't the case.

The variable you talk about is the North not having the same restrictions as us... so...

Like I said, I don't like the restrictions, I don't think anyone does. But they seem to be the only way to combat transmission.

And my point was, if you read my original post clearly, that there are too many variables and too many differences between countries to pinpoint restrictions or lack of as being the only explanation for high or low incidence. I pointed out population size, population density, proximity to land borders as also having a big bearing. You even said yourself in your first post on the subject that it's difficult to quantify. And I fully agree that it is.

But all those lauding restrictions as the sole reason our numbers are not too high are not looking at the bigger picture.

Goldengirl

Lundstram wrote: »

Destroying livelihoods, social society and increasing our already massive debt far outweigh protecting a health service which has not even come close to being overwhelmed.

A massive overreaction yet again from one of the safest countries regarding Covid19 in Europe. The constant negativity from Hoolahan is sickening. He makes my skin crawl.

I really wish NPHET would disappear now, do these numbers in private, advise the government in private. Just go away. The fame and noteriety has gone to Dr. Doom's head.

In 10 years time, we will look back at 2020/21 as a year of shame for our nation.

The shame will be on those who have fought and argued against restrictions throughout this just so they can go to the pub.
Try explaining that one to your grandchildren when they are doing a project about the pandemic of 2020

FintanMcluskey

Goldengirl wrote: »

The shame will be on those who have fought and argued against restrictions throughout this just so they can go to the pub.
Try explaining that one to your grandchildren when they are doing a project about the pandemic of 2020

Child:How many of of your friends caught Covid grandad?

Eh I just knew 2 people that had it

Child: Were they in hospital for long

Oh god no, they didn’t actually know they had it. Most people didn’t know they had it. They had to get tested to know

Will be an interesting project for sure

acequion

Goldengirl wrote: »

The shame will be on those who have fought and argued against restrictions throughout this just so they can go to the pub.
Try explaining that one to your grandchildren when they are doing a project about the pandemic of 2020

A gross over generalisation. This trying to pigeon hole all the anti draconian restriction people as just hankering after the pub is getting very tiresome. As well as tunnel visioned. I've stated here in my posts that I never go to pubs, not my scene at all. But I can certainly empathise with pub frequenters and pub owners.

Goldengirl

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Child:How many of of your friends caught Covid grandad?

Eh I just knew 2 people that had it

Child: Were they in hospital for long

Oh god no, they didn’t actually know they had it. Most people didn’t know they had it. They had to get tested to know

Will be an interesting project for sure

Yes I am sure that might be your view or the view of the poster I was replying to .
A lot of other people would have a very different experience of this ,Fintan .
Thankfully.
Those that followed restrictions and supported them could say that they at least helped in that regard .
People don't ask the Japanese for their experience of Pearl Harbour .

Necro

acequion wrote: »

And my point was, if you read my original post clearly, that there are too many variables and too many differences between countries to pinpoint restrictions or lack of as being the only explanation for high or low incidence. I pointed out population size, population density, proximity to land borders as also having a big bearing. You even said yourself in your first post on the subject that it's difficult to quantify. And I fully agree that it is.

But all those lauding restrictions as the sole reason our numbers are not too high are not looking at the bigger picture.

Doesn't change the fact though that imposing restrictions = drop in cases. Which in turn decreases the pressure on health services.

Hence we're on this rollercoaster till vaccine supply equals demand, or the very vulnerable are vaccinated at the very least.

MadYaker

Goldengirl wrote: »

No , this is all incorrect .
Not normal in Dublin as increases in virus and severely ill patients requiring ICU is taking up any extra reserve.
I am an ICU nurse. When I talk about critical care I am talking about ICU beds not general ward or high dependency in general wards.
There are about 200 beds free in the whole country that includes the ICU beds , I don't know where you are getting 14000 !
I explained in my previous post this is the busiest time normally for hospitals and now even with the flu taking a back seat we are running into problems before even people start travelling and partying for Christmas.
I don't know what doctor you are quoting but if intensively ill patients end up being cared for in high dependency areas of general wards, that is the end of any normal health services and hospitals will have to cancel anything scheduled .
We are trying to keep both Covid and nonCovid going at the present time and have been succeeding in this since last lockdown .

Watch this post get ignored. Reality isn't welcome in this thread.

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

If you didn't "live a little in the summer months" that was a personal choice.

The majority of hospitality was open.

I wasn't really able to live this summer thanks to the Sh1t show of the dragged out restrictions and mixed messaging we had in our country.
I had to spend all my waking days just trying to do enough to keep my job secure and business alive for this year and several people in a full time employment.
I didn't actually have time for staycations