Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Tracking fear and anxiety levels. I've heard it all now.

Open the fkin country and stop being a nation of absolute imbeciles.

More premier league players testing positive for covid and experiencing the most common symptom - feeling absolutely fine.

2020 is truly the year of idiots. "ohh look the cases are coming down the lockdown is working!" clearly forgetting that we do nearly 50% less tests now per 7 days than we did back in start of Oct. Beyond belief :rolleyes:

% of positive tests has dropped by far more than 50%

Captain_Crash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

% of positive tests has dropped by far more than 50%

It’s running at a solid 3% and has been since the summer. There’s days here and there where it spikes of course (we had 7.something %) the other week, but the general trend since the peak in May has been fairly consistent.

mightyreds

PTH2009 wrote: »

Look at the difference in England's plans

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-lockdown-to-end-next-week-allowing-shops-gyms-and-salons-to-reopen-and-fans-back-in-some-stadiums-12140330

I wonder which parts of the country will go into tier 1.5 or 2.5

Gervais08

froog wrote: »

it feels like some are in the equivalent of heroin withdrawal for pubs. it's just really hitting them now. sad to see the grip they have on some people's lives.

Why do you think it’s “sad” that some people in smaller towns with no family or support system find comfort in chatting to a few people down the pub?

Are you that anti-alcohol ??

Zebra3

froog wrote: »

it feels like some are in the equivalent of heroin withdrawal for pubs. it's just really hitting them now. sad to see the grip they have on some people's lives.

It's everything.

It's not being able to go to a sports ground.

It's not being able to see loved ones.

It's not being able to socialise.

As someone else on here put so simply, it's the loss of spontaneity.

The constant attempts to demonise people on here re "pubs" and "pints" is utterly shameful.

Hammering those amongst the most vulnerable workers in society while hospitals are the biggest problem around.

Failures at the top lumped on to those on the bottom.

Just like FF light touch regulation on banks and white collar crime swiftly became "we all partied".

The more things change....

Captain_Crash

Captain_Crash wrote: »

It’s running at a solid 3% and has been since the summer. There’s days here and there where it spikes of course (we had 7.something %) the other week, but the general trend since the peak in May has been fairly consistent.

Am, no it hasn’t. It was well below 1% for most of the summer

https://covid-19.geohive.ie/datasets/f6d6332820ca466999dbd852f6ad4d5a_0/data

When there is little virus in circulation, nearly all of those referred with Covid like symptoms will in fact have something else. As prevalence increases, the proportion of those referred who actually have the virus will increase, and as prevalence wains the proportion will fall. It’s the closest we have to a leading indicator, and remains a very relevant stat as long as testing criteria is unchanged

Necro

Mod:

RobitTV's threadban has been lifted after discussions with user

RobitTV

Necro wrote: »

Mod:

RobitTV's threadban has been lifted after discussions with user

Thank you for being helpful during our conversation and coming to this decision. I understand you have a role as a moderator to carry out on here and I fully respect that and the guidance you gave during our conversation.

old_aussie

REALLY.

Taoiseach, Micheál Martin ...... Restaurants will reopen next week if daily Covid cases get below 300.

How feckin stupid can Irish leaders get ? And these are your leaders???????

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/wet-pubs-stay-closed-christmas-23054351

News Flash ... it's 2030 and it looks like Ireland has FINALLY eradicated the CCP virus, after half million deaths!

FintanMcluskey

old_aussie wrote: »

REALLY.

Taoiseach, Micheál Martin ...... Restaurants will reopen next week if daily Covid cases get below 300.

How feckin stupid can Irish leaders get ? And these are your leaders???????

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/health-news/wet-pubs-stay-closed-christmas-23054351

News Flash ... it's 2030 and it looks like Ireland has FINALLY eradicated the CCP virus, after half million deaths!

I heard they will cancel the toy show if the car park in Jervis street is busy this week

Multipass

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

When I first saw this post I had to do a double take on the sender. I thought it was something from Waterford Whispers or some other satirical account.

But no, it's an official HSE report on their official account telling us that we're not scared enough and need to do more!

I hope all those advocating for and justifying restrictions realise two things from this graph :

1. You owe everyone who said the HSE was actively spreading fear and you laughed at/attacked/belittled an apology

2. You see for yourself the damage that has been done to your own mental health and that of others with a similar mindset as a result of this

We have now officially crossed from single-minded overzealous responses, to the point of an admission of actively trying to scare the population into compliance.

Save this chart folks, for it will undoubtedly feature in the inevitable tribunal and inquiry when this is finally all over

I saw a wonderfully ridiculous worry chart on a news item, and cant find it now. Was it real, and if so could someone post a link that isn’t twitter - thanks

old_aussie

RobitTV wrote: »

Thank you for being helpful during our conversation and coming to this decision. I understand you have a role as a moderator to carry out on here and I fully respect that and the guidance you gave during our conversation.

Rolls on floor laughing

FintanMcluskey

Multipass wrote: »

I saw a wonderfully ridiculous worry chart on a news item, and cant find it now. Was it real, and if so could someone post a link that isn’t twitter - thanks

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=533945&d=1606163536

Thierry12

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30584-3.pdf

After reading this I now believe in conspiracy theories

Swiss study IFR is 0.0092 in 20 - 49 years old

Dieing in car crash odds

BeefeaterHat

Zebra3 wrote: »

It's everything.

It's not being able to go to a sports ground.

It's not being able to see loved ones.

It's not being able to socialise.

As someone else on here put so simply, it's the loss of spontaneity.

The constant attempts to demonise people on here re "pubs" and "pints" is utterly shameful.

Hammering those amongst the most vulnerable workers in society while hospitals are the biggest problem around.

Failures at the top lumped on to those on the bottom.

Just like FF light touch regulation on banks and white collar crime swiftly became "we all partied".

The more things change....

I bet my bollocks a line along the likes of 'we all supported lockdown' will become this generations 'we all partied during the Celtic tiger' when the economic cluster**** unfolds. Mark my words

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Am, no it hasn’t. It was well below 1% for most of the summer

https://covid-19.geohive.ie/datasets/f6d6332820ca466999dbd852f6ad4d5a_0/data

When there is little virus in circulation, nearly all of those referred with Covid like symptoms will in fact have something else. As prevalence increases, the proportion of those referred who actually have the virus will increase, and as prevalence wains the proportion will fall. It’s the closest we have to a leading indicator, and remains a very relevant stat as long as testing criteria is unchanged

But a leading indicator for what?

Why has the hospitalisation rate more than doubled since the beginning of November?

TRANQUILLO

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55048438

You wont be allowed on a QANTAS flight without the vaccine.

The coercion begins.......

" they are a private company , they can do what they want" I hear from the cheap seats.

They were happy to take the great unwashed's money to stay afloat but they will be more discerning with who they let on board now.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-airlines-qantas-virgin-bailout-rescue-package-taxpayer-2020-3


"my body ,my choice" right girls? ...thats what we shouted here two years ago with our fancy REPEAL jumpers on. Im sure the "anti vaxxers" (as anyone who is even remotely reticent to get this jab will be labelled) would love your support in maintaining bodily autonomy.



And finally if person A is pro vaccine and person B is anti vax and they sit beside each other on a flight there shouldn't be an issue. Person A is safe and person B does not care so everyone wins no?


Its akin to someone mandating me to wear a rain coat because they don't want to get wet. Once they have theirs on they will be dry.

Thats me

Deleted User wrote: »

remains a very relevant stat as long as testing criteria is unchanged

The only problem there is no such criteria.;)

Ha Long Bay

Thierry12 wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30584-3.pdf

After reading this I now believe in conspiracy theories

Swiss study IFR is 0.0092 in 20 - 49 years old

Dieing in car crash odds

Road conditions must have deteriorated since that article you posted from July in that case.

Stormyteacup

Stormyteacup wrote: »

But a leading indicator for what?

Why has the hospitalisation rate more than doubled since the beginning of November?

Am, no it hasn’t, it’s down 20% since the start of the month
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

And even so, it’s a lagging indicator.

Positive rate - leading indicator, strong information on the portion of referrals who are positive indicating the direction the case trend is heading in and the risk of untraced outbreaks

Hospital rates - lagging indicator, those admitted to hospital will have been infected at least 10 to 14 days earlier and a proportion of those admitted during a spike in cases will have relatively long stays meaning the hospital rates will be slow to decline

BeefeaterHat

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55048438

You wont be allowed on a QANTAS flight without the vaccine.

The coercion begins.......

" they are a private company , they can do what they want" I hear from the cheap seats.

They were happy to take the great unwashed's money to stay afloat but they will be more discerning with who they let on board now.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-airlines-qantas-virgin-bailout-rescue-package-taxpayer-2020-3


"my body ,my choice" right girls? ...thats what we shouted here two years ago with our fancy REPEAL jumpers on. Im sure the "anti vaxxers" (as anyone who is even remotely reticent to get this jab will be labelled) would love your support in maintaining bodily autonomy.



And finally if person A is pro vaccine and person B is anti vax and they sit beside each other on a flight there shouldn't be an issue. Person A is safe and person B does not care so everyone wins no?


Its akin to someone mandating me to wear a rain coat because they don't want to get wet. Once they have theirs on they will be dry.

One thing this has taught me, as someone who considers themselves left wing is that there's very few true liberals around. Any true liberal would've drawn the line long long ago instead they're either complicit in their silence or are cheering the insanity on

Thats me

Thats me wrote: »

The only problem there is no such criteria.;)

Yes there is
https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/how-to-get-tested.html

Cork2021

Just a couple of Irish paper front pages. Not one mention of the oxford vaccine!!! Our media are an absolute joke!!

https://www.broadsheet.ie/2020/11/23/tuesdays-papers-60/

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Am, no it hasn’t, it’s down 20% since the start of the month
https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

And even so, it’s a lagging indicator.

Positive rate - leading indicator, strong information on the portion of referrals who are positive indicating the direction the case trend is heading in and the risk of untraced outbreaks

Hospital rates - lagging indicator, those admitted to hospital will have been infected at least 10 to 14 days earlier and a proportion of those admitted during a spike in cases will have relatively long stays meaning the hospital rates will be slow to decline

Direction of case trend - perhaps. Mitigating the risk of untraced outbreaks? - possibly with small case numbers, otherwise futile.

The data I’m referencing is the 14 day epidemiology on HSPC.

October 1st; hospitalisation rate approx 3%
November 1st; hospitalisation rate approx 3%
November 22nd; hospitalisation rate 6.59%

Rate of hospitalisation not numbers in hospital.

Zebra3

Cork2021 wrote: »

Just a couple of Irish paper front pages. Not one mention of the oxford vaccine!!! Our media are an absolute joke!!

https://www.broadsheet.ie/2020/11/23/tuesdays-papers-60/

Fear sells.

Stormyteacup

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Direction of case trend - perhaps. Mitigating the risk of untraced outbreaks? - possibly with small case numbers, otherwise futile.

The data I’m referencing is the 14 day epidemiology on HSPC.

October 1st; hospitalisation rate approx 3%
November 1st; hospitalisation rate approx 3%
November 22nd; hospitalisation rate 6.59%

Rate of hospitalisation not numbers in hospital.

That data is nonsense. If there are 1000 cases this week and 100 hospitalisation that report will have a rate of 10%. The vast majority of the 100 will have been infected at least a week earlier if not nearly 2 however. As cases fall rapidly as happened at the start of the month this type of anomaly will occur. The hospitalisation figures today is probably more representative as the proportion of those cases in the 14 day report 10 days earlier who ended in hospital. If you look at the 14 day reports you will also see that hospitalisation peaked on the 31st. 10 days after cases peaked. November’s data is also skewed by the hospital outbreaks that have happened in the last two weeks

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That data is nonsense. If there are 1000 cases this week and 100 hospitalisation that report will have a rate of 10%. The vast majority of the 100 will have been infected at least a week earlier if not nearly 2 however. As cases fall rapidly as happened at the start of the month this type of anomaly will occur. The hospitalisation figures today is probably more representative as the proportion of those cases in the 14 day report 10 days earlier who ended in hospital. If you look at the 14 day reports you will also see that hospitalisation peaked on the 31st. 10 days after cases peaked. November’s data is also skewed by the hospital outbreaks that have happened in the last two weeks

This doesn’t make sense to me. At the beginning of September there were 1,500 cases and positivity rate approx 3%. End of September 4,500 cases, hospitalisation rate 3%, middle of October 10,000 cases, hospitalisation rate approx 3%.

Look maybe missing something, it’s been puzzling me this week - but how skewed do you reckon the data is by hospital outbreaks, out of interest?

Stormyteacup

Stormyteacup wrote: »

This doesn’t make sense to me. At the beginning of September there were 1,500 cases and positivity rate approx 3%. End of September 4,500 cases, hospitalisation rate 3%, middle of October 10,000 cases, hospitalisation rate approx 3%.

Look maybe missing something, it’s been puzzling me this week - but how skewed do you reckon the data is by hospital outbreaks, out of interest?

If 20 people catch it in hospital, 100% of those 20 will be hospital cases

Stormyteacup

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If 20 people catch it in hospital, 100% of those 20 will be hospital cases

Ok so can you explain why the rate didn’t increase over a two month period, despite increases in case numbers? Case numbers from 1,500 to 10,000 to middle of October, even allowing for lag, the hospitalisation rate should have been higher than 3% at the end of October.

It looks to me like the rate increase is solely down to HAIs, which more than skews the numbers, and puts a big question mark over the correlation between case numbers and hospitalisations.

vafankillar

lots of people saying if we go to level 3 people will just have house parties, but there was loads of house parties in level 2 when that happened outside of dublin where cases shot up with the general increase in contacts and socializing, I dont think house parties are some sort of uniquely level 3 phenomenon.