Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Thats me

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes there is
https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/how-to-get-tested.html

No, this is just nonsense - we simply has no idea what "positive rates" would stand for. Ho many positive positive results were obtained in hospitals, by results of contact tracing or in "serial testing".


I cannot understand what positive ratio stands for you, how you think it relates to actual hospitalisations or ICU admissions:

Stormyteacup

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Ok so can you explain why the rate didn’t increase over a two month period, despite increases in case numbers? Case numbers from 1,500 to 10,000 to middle of October, even allowing for lag, the hospitalisation rate should have been higher than 3% at the end of October.

It looks to me like the rate increase is solely down to HAIs, which more than skews the numbers, and puts a big question mark over the correlation between case numbers and hospitalisations.

Might take a look at the hospital data going back to early summer in the morning and get back to you

Thats me

Thats me wrote: »

No, this is just nonsense - we simply has no idea what "positive rates" would stand for. Ho many positive positive results were obtained in hospitals, by results of contact tracing or in "serial testing".


I cannot understand what positive ratio stands for you, how you think it relates to actual hospitalisations or ICU admissions:

It’s right there hidden in your chart. The positive rate started falling a few days before the case peak. Cases become hospitalisations which become icu admissions. Those figures in you chapter are noisy due to scale, but they are also now falling

showpony1

So in the entire Country there are 252 cases (majority of whom i'm sure are fine) and 33 people in ICU (because of or with COVID?) but our Worry level amongst the MILLIONS sitting at home is down so Tony is concerned?

what are we actually trying to achieve here - this is definite shifting of the goalposts now by Holohan which has to be surely called out in the Media.

Thats me

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Ok so can you explain why the rate didn’t increase over a two month period, despite increases in case numbers?

I think i can explain, i was misled by this here. Positive rate can be provided for period of all tests, so new values do not affect it much. On the diagram above i took positives to total tests for one day period, so it has quite different shape (but still make no sense :rolleyes: ).

Thats me

Deleted User wrote: »

The positive rate started falling a few days before the case peak.

No, as far i can see spikes of positive tests are just following new cases:



P.S. It can happen the tests results are provided for the day before timestamp, but the only difference in this case spikes sometimes would happen simultaneously.

fin12

Are cinemas allowed open under level 3?

drunkmonkey

The Government is to allow people to visit their family members on Christmas Day — but hugging their relations will not be permitted.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40088114.html

Time for that Army or Guards to call an end to this crap.

ben.schlomo

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The Government is to allow people to visit their family members on Christmas Day — but hugging their relations will not be permitted.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40088114.html

Time for that Army or Guards to call an end to this crap.

Yes I firmly believe the army should deploy one member of their service into every home this Xmas. Said person's main role should be to ensure everyone in that home hugs everyone else, including the member of the army.

drunkmonkey

I was thinking more of a sudden, violent seizure of power from the government.

Captain_Crash

"The Government is to allow people to visit their family members on Christmas Day — but hugging their relations will not be permitted"

Can you imagine the ridicule you would have got this time last year if you said.... this will be the first two lines of a headline article in a national newspaper a year from today?? f**k me.... this is going beyond Orwellian at this stage

drunkmonkey

You couldn't make it up this is Insanity, I'm joining the resistance.

Spudman_20000

Not surprised the government are dilly dallying about reopening pubs and restaurants as they know full well there cannot be a 3rd lockdown, and closures of businesses that it would bring.

If there is another lockdown, most of these businesses will never reopen. January and February are already woeful months for restaurants and pubs and business owners will want guarantees that they're not going to be told to shut again in 2021 if they were to reopen in December.

Multipass

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The Government is to allow people to visit their family members on Christmas Day — but hugging their relations will not be permitted.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40088114.html

Time for that Army or Guards to call an end to this crap.

Article translates as ‘let’s talk about anything but the hospitals’

AssetBacked2

vafankillar wrote: »

lots of people saying if we go to level 3 people will just have house parties, but there was loads of house parties in level 2 when that happened outside of dublin where cases shot up with the general increase in contacts and socializing, I dont think house parties are some sort of uniquely level 3 phenomenon.

In March and April there were house parties! People who live under a rock (on Twitter and Facebook) don't seem to grasp this; that those that don't care have never cared and house parties have been going on from the beginning. It's not new. The strict restrictions only punish those that follow them, therefore for me we need to have level 2 as the new strictest measure as it offers a decent enough amount of freedom to people.

Of course, I would question why we even need level 2 but my point is that it should be considered the "lockdown" level.

On the costing point, the government know they will be slaughtered if they try to raise taxes on people, I have a strong feeling that they will be extremely careful with continuing restrictions where there is a risk they won't be able to borrow enough to spend our way into a recovery.

Stormyteacup

Stormyteacup wrote: »

Ok so can you explain why the rate didn’t increase over a two month period, despite increases in case numbers? Case numbers from 1,500 to 10,000 to middle of October, even allowing for lag, the hospitalisation rate should have been higher than 3% at the end of October.

It looks to me like the rate increase is solely down to HAIs, which more than skews the numbers, and puts a big question mark over the correlation between case numbers and hospitalisations.

Here is the trend on positive rate, cases and hospitalisation - scales are adjusted so can be overlayed, but its real data and positive rate leading cases leading hospitalisations is clear

paw patrol

vafankillar wrote: »

lots of people saying if we go to level 3 people will just have house parties, but there was loads of house parties in level 2 when that happened outside of dublin where cases shot up with the general increase in contacts and socializing, I dont think house parties are some sort of uniquely level 3 phenomenon.

fully agree,

until there are late venues like late bar, niteclubs open then we will have house parties galore.
you think most people are going to call it a day at 10pm especially over christmas?

Thierry12

showpony1 wrote: »

So in the entire Country there are 252 cases (majority of whom i'm sure are fine) and 33 people in ICU (because of or with COVID?) but our Worry level amongst the MILLIONS sitting at home is down so Tony is concerned?

what are we actually trying to achieve here - this is definite shifting of the goalposts now by Holohan which has to be surely called out in the Media.

He needs to go

He's been a disaster in every previous role and becoming one again now

You either become a hero or stay long enough to become the villain

VonLuck

8 months since this all started and people still don't grasp why these restrictions are needed. Boggles the mind.

Thierry12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Here is the trend on positive rate, cases and hospitalisation - scales are adjusted so can be overlayed, but its real data and positive rate leading cases leading hospitalisations is clear

You need to take out hospital acquired Covid

Just include community/general public

facehugger99

Deleted User wrote: »

Here is the trend on positive rate, cases and hospitalisation - scales are adjusted so can be overlayed, but its real data and positive rate leading cases leading hospitalisations is clear

In other words, the hospitalization scale has been exaggerated so it appears far worse than it actually is.

We had just over 300 people in hospital with Covid when we moved to L5. Thanks to some bright spark who analyzed that admissions data , it would seem that most of these people contracted the virus while in hospital for some other cause. Funnily enough NPHET never seem to have this information 'to hand' when they are asked about it.

In Feb 2018 there were approximately 600 people in hospital because of the seasonal flu - where were the L5 restriction back them?

Nowhere, because back then the world had not gone mad over a virus that poses an imperceptible risk to the vast, vast majority of the country and a lockdown that required borrowing €20bn a month to sustain, would have been considered criminal.

What changed in the 3 years since then I wonder?

Thierry12

VonLuck wrote: »

8 months since this all started and people still don't grasp why these restrictions are needed. Boggles the mind.

Boggles the mind that people don't realise very little people need hospital care and its all a sham at this point

Out of the 270 cases in hospital, 200 bloody got it there

Thousands of cases a week and only 70 need hospital care

If they sort out the bloody hospitals, stop drinking coffees there, stop eating in canteens there, keep masks on, on site we wouldnt need any restrictions

IFR for 20-49 years olds is 0.009%

Dieing in car crash odds

Question everything, that's lost on too many

Its beaten out of children when they hit 5

manniot2

Reading that Examiner article - what an absolute load of nonsense. My god, if people actually take this seriously, they need their heads examined.

pjohnson

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I was thinking more of a sudden, violent seizure of power from the government.

:pac:


Priceless

drunkmonkey

Thierry12 wrote: »

You need to take out hospital acquired Covid

Just include community/general public

also take out the Healthy people with no symptoms. We might actually see the problem with honest data.

copeyhagen

Thierry12 wrote: »

Boggles the mind that people don't realise very little people need hospital care and its all a sham at this point

Out of the 270 cases in hospital, 200 bloody got it there

Thousands of cases a week and only 70 need hospital care

If they sort out the bloody hospitals, stop drinking coffees there, stop eating in canteens there, keep masks on, on site we wouldnt need any restrictions

IFR for 20-49 years olds is 0.009%

Dieing in car crash odds

Question everything, that's lost on too many

Its beaten out of children when they hit 5

have we any info for the 200 that caught covid while there? a link or soemthing/ cheers.

AssetBacked2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Here is the trend on positive rate, cases and hospitalisation - scales are adjusted so can be overlayed, but its real data and positive rate leading cases leading hospitalisations is clear

That's a useful chart but what I will say is that it doesn't lead to a conclusion that increased positive rate lead to increased cases which lead to increased hospitalisations. They are correlated for sure but I think it is a leap to say that they lead into each other.

It is very possible that the increased hospitalisations came first and lead to the positive rate increases and this lead to an increase in cases.

drunkmonkey

copeyhagen wrote: »

have we any info for the 200 that caught covid while there? a link or soemthing/ cheers.

https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1330122887785828352?s=20

Do not expect NPHET to give you those figures or any journalist to even ask them the question they're more concerned with counting cars in parking lots.
Journalism is an absolute disgrace in this country.

SNNUS

Is it true that 101 cases from yesterday's 252 were actually from October?

drunkmonkey

SNNUS wrote: »

Is it true that 101 cases from yesterday's 252 were actually from October?

I doubt it where did you see that, Tony was pretty optimistic we'd see a jump in cases Tomorrow.